The Consumer Price Index came in at -0.3% for the month, the lowest number since 2008. On top of that, the labor market continues to struggle. Apparently, all of those fucking “green” jobs 0bama promised us never panned out, due to the undebatable fact that 0bama is an oil man.
What the CPI is telling us is clear: America is swirling inside “The Deflationary Vortex” right now, something I’ve been warning you about for years. How do you get out of such a conundrum?
Print more money.
Bernanke will take today’s CPI numbers and punch the hawks, on the Fed’s board, in the face with them. QE3 is not a possibility, but probable. In the event we do not get QE3, I’m afraid the market will drop by 10% or more in short order. Let’s face it, fuckers, without our capital markets, we are nothing. America must preserve its capital markets, else a sundry of subsequent events will toss us, violently, back into the stone age.
73 Responses to Do You Hear That Sound?
Give it up, Fly. Every Next Dollar Printed is less effective than the Last Dollar Printed in staving off deflation. Look at Japan’s last generation+. Is that the capital market that you want?
Come to the dark side. Or just bend over. It only hurts the first couple of times.
Your logic has been completely wrong since 2009.
Really? He’s been basically bullish and that’s been wrong?
Dude, is your chart upside down?
Keep it up John and you are a goner
You’re gonna boot me for having a different opinion?
… been here long ?
Thank you for the sermon.
Does this also mean it is unlikely to happen? No.
There is a point at which the two questions of “where is the mkt going” and “what is for the greater good” intersect. Unfortunately for you this is not that point.
Voting members are almost all doves. Europe going down. This is as easy a call as any.
no offense, but.. japans problem wasn’t that they printed money, its that they didn’t print nearly enough nearly fast enough.
they DID eventually print trillions and trillions of yen, to the tune of 200+% national debt to GDP. result?
hyperinflation ala the lunatic fringes predictions? naw, STILL IN THE VORTEX
QE3 hopium will lose too…diminishing marginal return
I think that one has to also consider the possibility that QE3 has been priced in already and it’s why we’re not a 100 points lower on the S&P.
A sell the news event is a real possibility, even if the market pops for a day or a week.
QE3 = KRC
That’s bullshit, sir.
Forget about America being backed by ‘the full faith and credit’ as suggested by the dusty old US Constitution. America (especially our capital markets) are backed exclusively by nuclear powered Nimitz class aircraft carriers, predator drones and tomahawk cruise missiles.
That is the only explanation for 1.6% yield on the 10 yr for a country that has a deficit number with nearly 15 zeros in it.
leave, at once, with that drivelish jabber
no offense, to all of you, especially those of you who worship at the altar of neoclassical econ, but….
considering debt purely denominated in its own currency (which, then, by the way, if you think about it, isn’t debt at all. its like you oweing your own autograph. just sign dude…)
who has the lowest rates? the most indebted nations, for the most part. japan = lowest. etc.
the US doesn’t owe anybody shit. nothing, nada, zilch, zero.
and the entire theories of crowding out and nations with too much debt suddenly being blocked from the bond markets… SIMPLY DOESN’T APPLY TO COUNTRIES WHO CREATE THEIR OWN CURRENCY.
that is all
Thanks for attaching beautiful music to your website-it makes the pain of losses more soothing )
we must reach ESCAPE VELOCITY, PRONTO
Trust me I don’t want to go through any pain but I have to wonder. How many more bailouts before we just lose confidence in the markets? I mean, how many times do you bail your kid out of jail until you just say you need to learn a lesson and leave them in?
Your analogy isn’t quite right. You’re not bailing your kid out of jail. You’re blowing yourself out of jail because you are the prisoner and the guard at one and the same time.
So we are the kid and parent at the same time. I get it. So we are addicted to drugs and there is no turning back. There is only one way out and that is to overdose. I just don’t see a way out of this until we all start doing the right thing.
What is the right thing? Establish clear guidelines on who is the parent and who is the child? Do you want to be a child again? Fiat is about letting go of the family paradigm/household paradigm.
I think you are right in the fact that there is no clear parent or child. We are all being irresponsible with spending/debt. We will probably never do the right thing and the hard reset will happen on its own…
You do realize that the Heat are going to lose, don’t you? I was a Lebron fan, until he pulled the Decision. Such stupid obnoxious stuff. Now I’m feeling sad for him, because it is the end of the line for the big three in Miami. I keep hearing things like Lebron “deserves” a ring. Maybe, but so did Ewing, Malone, Stockton, McGrady, Reggie Miller, and many many other greats.
… not sure about McGrady !
Agree on the others ! fwiw
Aw alf, McGrady had one of the most beautiful games before he got hurt. Grant you, he got hurt early, so didn’t have a stellar career. Still, go back and watch those games. He was the Drose of the era.
Although I do think OKC is playing much better than Miami, they have younger more durable players and have a stronger bench, I can’t agree that it is a “slam dunk” OKC will win it all. I don’t think anyone deserves anything unless they work hard for it. I also don’t understand why people hold these stupid grudges for as long as they do. LBJ knows he made a dumb decision making a spectacle out of the move from Cleveland. People just want someone to hate all the time.
I don’t see how they can put up 100-110 points against OKC. That’s what they need to do. That means all 3 have to have 30 pt games, and there are just not enough touches to go around. Heat need 20 fast break points a game to win. Last game, that was partially covered by their 3pt shooting first half. It’s no slam dunk, I grant you, but in 5 or 7.
Sorry, meant to write in 6 or 7 games, not five.
What’s another Trillion amongst friends? come on… just swipe it on the plastic and make minimum payments til you die, then fuck it, its not your problem anymore.
are USO and oil names on the buy list if and when we start seeing signs of le’QE. I am watching the crude, thinking, this changes, eventually
Why you getting all crazy, we haven’t violated anything on the charts. If anything this is good for you because we might get a sharp move down soon. Then you will freak out more and we might set up a break down failure which will propel us higher .
Jeez what a tough choice prop up a corrupt, broken system with QE3 or we all starve to death. A true Hobson’s choice.
We wont starve to death, we can always eat each others faces
QE3 might look nothing like the previous QEs…they might do something completely unorthodox that injects spendable dollars right into consumers pockets, bypassing the banks.
Like a POTUS buying votes with free dollars?
I wonder how many concrete penetrating “super-microphones” are currently in DC and pointed at the Fed Building?
You are all ideologues. It’s amazing how stupid most of you are.
And yours are not stupid ? Freaking out on every down tic , looks like you might get your break to the upside sooner than you thought.
YOURS ARE STOOPIDE
I rest my case.
I forgot this was English class my bad. .
Now say it the correct way. Let’s try again.
Well at least I can correct my spelling but you can’t correct your entries.
Yes, we are a ship of of fools
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
If dead people can vote, can we vote for dead people?
Senator George Carlin would give me a reason to watch the news again.
… my favorite Carlin line:
Some see the glass as half empty.
Some see the glass as half full.
I see the glass as TOO BIG !
got it, you’re still bullish at every level of price and hoping for qe. logic would dictate that after the first 3 qe rounds that CPI wouldn’t be negative. and you shit on morgan stanley. you’ve morphed into a permabull
I’m a perma coin banker, up 8% this year. What are your returns?
Nothing, since you just talk.
I trade a cust/prop vol book on the sell side, up 51% (that seems like a lot but it’s average for an equity vol strategy this yr) this year on average capital at risk and I have no negative marks on my u4 to boot, as you do, and yes, I’ve worked at Morgan. why aren’t commodities and long end bonds up if qeFLY is coming?
You think people reading this know what a cust/prop vol book on the sell side is? What is that?
Interesting. Hem, you made 51% this year so far, and in your spare time you hang around web sites like this to tell the blogger how wrong he is about the market, QE etc.?
How generous of you to help Fly out, by correcting his position re: the markets and QE, thus keeping him from losing money in the future. And doing this despite the fact that he shits on your beloved former employer Morgan Stanley. Hmm. Something about this story does not add up.
Maybe that’s one reason why you no longer work there. Haven’t you learnt yet that commodities have never risen during the past few months on anticipation of a release of a QE3?. Listen to ‘the FLY’ and you’ll learn more about how the market works!.
… let’s take a break for a sec and contemplate something a bit more important than Greece, QE3 or even that disturbing image of Jack Nicholson currently on the front page. What could possibly be more important than that you may ask (or, maybe not).
The “horse race” going on between chessNwine and CRONKITE for iBC fantasy dollars that’s what ! It’s a tight race with “cNw” by a nose (as it were).
But, WAIT !!!
Here comes “the CRONKster” along the outside ! Look at him go !
OH MY !!!
Coal under bath salts attack…no looking away…everyone loses
What is so different in Spain and Greece and Italy from our very own Countrywide and the tan man, Angelo?
Ideologues don’t make good money managers because they are too emotionally attached to opinions. I don’t know how many times I have to tell you, I don’t care about fixing anything, only interested in the next 1,000 points.
so what is the play today?? YOUR absolute best thought??
… watching the U.S. Open on the teevee !
sounds like the best idea Ive heard
Since the market is on hold and there isn’t sh*t happening til after the wknd- Sell the shit out of any out of the money puts on the S&P weeklys and collect the premium. It’s free money. Am I missing something?
I’d prepare hedging strategies for when Benjamin decides to be a douche, and reject the possibility of QE3 as the Fed’s next move.
I’d also prepare 3 pounds of coke along a mirror, so you can’t feel your face after your portfolio tanks.
Bring cretins to the gates of the kingdom of heaven, show them the keys, and they will still sit there slinging feces at each other.
I know you guys understand what The Fly is saying, and although folks criticize Jim Cramer, his mantra as a hedge fund manager was: get in before the herd gets in and get out before the herd gets out. Having an ideology is nice for philosophical discussions and one’s ego (if that’s what you’re about) but putting yourself in position to make money is what the pro money managers are suppsoed to do. The Fly has a plan and he will follow it through!
Can we get a proper motherfucking meltup? Jeezus christ what in the fuck are they waiting for?
Next week we go up 500+ points. Mark it.
Huggie, your toilet paper brand sucks.
It’s better than the cheap stuff.
Speaking of correlations which nobody was, seems to this one that if YELP is so right that EAT would be even mo righta.
Nice call on WFR Sir Fly. Shame I only put in a starter position.
Fuck it. I’m gonna throw up powder in the air like an egocentric lunatic when Ben follows through with QE3.
I dont think he does it yet
I think he says they “stand ready”
Therefore “stand ready” for that move down
Get back to work none of you deserve a lunch break