iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
16,854 Blog Posts

COME GET IT

Although I want to boast and taunt, I think my efforts today will be maximized by giving you a clinical analysis on what this bitch of a whore market is doing.

When I suggested in an earlier post that “this is the easiest, highest probability trade you will ever make” it was based upon the laws of science. When there is more supply of money in the system, asset prices go up. To argue about “diminishing returns” is pointless, since most of us are only interested in keeping our dicks exposed for a short while. To think the central banks would idly sit by and watch their economies get devoured by idiots in burlap suits was pathetically laughable. They call events like that “Black Swan” because they are rare occurrences, not likely to be predicted en masse.

Agree with me or not, it is my belief the “rumors” coming out about a G20 policy response is not only credible, but fact. Keep in mind, the central banks LOVE to fuck short sellers on option expiration days, to inflict mass pain. Tomorrow happens to be such a day. Look for more rumors, or actual statements, to come out soon, regarding “the mother-fucker of all bailouts.”

Earlier today, I alerted members of The PPT and 12631 of a rare occurrence, an OVERSOLD reading in 3x to the upside ETF, TNA. It flagged an OS reading on all four of our algos, despite the market being up. In the past, such a reading was met with frenetic moves to the upside, then a fade.

Have a look.


In my opinion, the correct trade here is to go against conventional wisdom: buy the whore, sell the orgasm.

For the day, I made 1.7%, putting me a touch under +10% for the year–still 10% off YTD highs.

UPDATE: Due to late day surge, TNA DID NOT close OVERSOLD on historical basis. However, it is still OS as of yesterday on 3,6 and 12 mo algos.

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66 comments

  1. noodle

    Can’t argue with science.

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  2. ctb007

    What a great quote “buy the whore sell the orgasm.” IBC is the tits!

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  3. RoboGal

    Prop desk rumors moved this market nothing more. Lets not act like it’ll all be erased by 4pm tomorrow.

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  4. wvufan87

    Wow, the last time TNA was flagged oversold was 2010-08-11.

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  5. lowoffer

    buy the prude, sell the whore

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  6. Loki

    Sell the volatility!!!

    Taste the Baklava!!!

    >central banks LOVE to fuck short sellers on option expiration days

    I’m a voyeur, I’ll just watch the CB -> the bears

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  7. milesknowsbest

    CPST you puppies!

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  8. larry

    This was not a boast or a taunt?

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    • The Fly

      Not by my standards. When I boast, I aim to inflict mass casualties. This was a warning shot.

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    • TJWP

      Did you see one mention of the black flag? I mean… frankly… disparaging.

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  9. The Fly

    Last time TNA was flagged OS, back in August of 2010, QE started right after and boosted markets by 20% in short order.

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  10. Blind Read Ant

    Interesting commentary today.

    Complacent yet erratic.

    I’ll mention this one more:

    By fall, watch your positions, as any (c)overt military action in the Middle East will cause a quick market jolt of jitter-craters.

    I’m not here to bear shat, I’m just mentioning this is a political year and the HOBOma may go nuclear (fig.) to continue his ideological manifesto forward.

    While this is bad for the markets, I admit 99% of readers will interpret this golden insight as taboo.

    Good day.

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    • Donkey Punch

      next year, post crash, maybe.

      obama would love nothing more than to bask in the adoration of his disciples for another term. his disciples hate bombs, love bikes.

      give romney 1) horrible economy AND 2) spiking gas pricing AND 3) more wars to talk about?

      probability of this is near 0%.

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      • Cascadian

        Obamaa disciples will vote for him anyway. He needs to carve some voters out of the middle.

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    • Cascadian

      Golden insight huh? And at no cost.

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  11. COYPUS!

    T.I. murders every song he’s on.

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  12. alf44

    … this EOD BS that went on today reminds of a parable I read earlier today on one John Silb’s blog posts.

    Or, was it a metaphor ?

    Or, maybe it was an analogy !

    Oh well … suffice it to say it was something about a deck of cards, the Jack of Spades … and cider squirted in your ear.

    .

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  13. The Fly

    TNA DID NOT CLOSE OS. Score jumped with late day surge- fyi.

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  14. The Fly

    But it’s still OS as of yeast on 3,6 and 12 mo algo

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  15. Jackpass

    Hey fly I own a boatload of cpsn the call was pretty good what Is a fair price to sell in your opinion?

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  16. Patrick

    Sean Egan reminds me of Matt Simmons for some reason.

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  17. md386

    Senor Fly, what kind of move do you think FB will make once it is added to the Russell 3000 on June 25th for russell rebalancing?…normally the rebalancing makes for some easy coin and maybe FB is the way to play it.

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  18. slimtrader

    Fly, any opinion on $YPF? Seems kind of your style. Carlos Slim pulling an Icahn with a mind fucking 8.4% stake:
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/904851/000110465912043594/a12-14719_1sc13g.htm

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  19. razorsedge

    so this grasshopper, goes into a bar, the bartender says ” hey we got a drink named after you”. the grasshopper replys ” you got a drink named larry?”

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  20. bobbyboucher

    Fly, just saw the Prisoners section on the front page. Too f’in funny!

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    • alf44

      Well, “prison life” ain’t so bad !

      Why … just this week Lenny Dykstra gave a clinic on how to hit a split finger fast ball !

      And next week … devildog is doing a demonstration on how to overhaul a Dodge Viper aluminum alloy V10 engine ! I’m currently polishing my torque wrench as I write this !

      Uh Oh … the Warden just announced “lights out” over the PA … gotta go !!!

      .

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      • alf44

        … btw … GO THUNDER !!!

        .

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        • alf44

          … and one final thought …

          NOTHING … not even that EOD crap today has done ANYTHING … to make me question my position in this “Market” !

          STILL … Shorter than Verne Troyer !

          If we bounce in here … I will be adding ! fwiw

          .

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      • Full Retard

        Alf44,
        I know you don’t think so, but when I saw you in prison, I had to laugh. It really is funny. Enjoy your infamy while it lasts.

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      • Mad_Scientist

        I don’t believe it. You actually said something funny! (And without telling everyone you are telling a joke – and without informing us it is a joke which you yourself find very amusing)… I think you are learning.

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        • alf44

          … I got a thousand clever comebacks for that lameass, condescending garbage … but, it would most likely be waay over your head !

          .

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      • ottnott

        “I’m currently polishing my torque wrench”

        Eww.

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  21. the boost

    i cant find a reason why the creator of all experiences would want to deny you the privilege of experiencing the black swan…im sure he reads your posts and this truly would be a post for all of time

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  22. lowoffer

    fucking love that pic. I will click no matter what.

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  23. Sierra Water

    Fly,
    Take a look at the eod buying in FORM coupled with the daily technicals. The broad market technicals are all settling nicely above the 20 day sma.. The markets are all in perfect position to make a major move to the upside and the catalyst would be a global monetary stimulus as the rumors are suggesting. YELP looks primed technically as well to make a move above its 50 sma. Best of luck to you next week, either we are all gonna get rich or this is the largest bull trap ever.

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  24. Curious

    Tomorrow should prove interesting. I’m guessing we head back to /ES 1320 at the opening, fuck around there for a while (for the umpteenth time) and after that it’s anyone’s guess — bust down through it because of the FEARS or rocket off of it. Hoping for the latter.

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    • Full Retard

      Your thesis is plausible. Just imagine. Who would want to hold long or short into this weekend? My opinion is the close will be faded tomorrow.

      But then again, who has been able to predict this market but Chess.

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      • Curious

        The close will indeed be faded — it’s just a matter of from what level. I can’t imagine we blast off in the morning, though with this market who the hell knows. So do we sell off from 1320 or from 1340? Options expiration also adds to the fact that it’s going to be a crazy day.

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  25. asteroids

    Today was scripted! Tomorrow will be scripted. All bets are off afer that. I suspect the Greeks will lose to the communists twice this weekend. Once on the pitch, the others at the polls.

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  26. Testicules

    $STO , Ok, a little labor trouble…so what, they just announced a “find”. Chart looks ripe…comments?

    throwing it out there

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  27. Mr. Partridge

    Did you see nat gas today? I have never seen a commodity move so much % so fast….

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  28. theedge111

    No follow through on the futures tonight.

    If we can’t bounce on the mother of all bailout news then this market is screwed.

    I’m guessing the central banks will feel a lot of pressure to announce at least something tomorrow to prevent bank runs in Greece and Spain.

    Interesting times.

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    • The Fly

      Futs +5 above fv

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    • Loki

      Futures have meant so little for so long until about 8:30 ET.

      It’s like a chat room at midnight I go check ’em just to reassure myself other people are alive in the world and have not been eaten by bath-salt-eating-ex-gay-porn star cannibals.

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    • Loki

      Thinking ->, EUR-USD is a more reliable indicator.

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  29. Blind Read Ant

    Some of the Readership might read the following before speaking, or voting, on the matter (later this year):

    Dimitry Z. Manuilsky, Chairman of United Nations Security Council, 1930:

    “War to the hilt between communism and capitalism is inevitable. Today, of course, we are not strong enough to attack. Our time will come in 20 to 30 years. To win, we shall need the element of surprise. The bourgeoisie will have to be put to sleep. So we shall begin by launching the most spectacular peace movement on record. There will be electrifying overtures and unheard-of concessions. The capitalist countries, stupid and decadent, will rejoice to cooperate in their own destruction. They will leap at another chance to be friends. As soon as their guard is down, we shall smash them with our clenched fist.”

    D. MANUILSKI
    PROFESSOR AT THE LENIN SCHOOL OF POLITICAL WARFARE IN MOSCOW, 1930

    B. Obama approve(d)s this message.

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    • 'merica

      Life is a fragile thing. Our freedoms are diminishing day by day. You can only back a dog into a corner for so long.

      IMO our county has become soft. BUT, we did not get where we are by chance. Fuck China, Fuck NWO, Fuck Russia, Fuck “Progressives”

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    • Cascadian

      made up crap. There was no UN in 1930.

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      • DMG

        I think he was going for this:

        Lenin’s prophecy about the United States…

        Vladimir Lenin (in the early 1920s):

        “First we will take Eastern Europe, then the masses of Asia. We will encircle the last bastion of capitalism, the United States of America. We will not need to fight. It will fall as a ripe fruit into our hands.”

        And, “We must practice coexistence with other nations, until we are strong enough to take over by means of world revolution…. We are not pacifists. Conflict is inevitable. Great political questions can be solved only through violence…. It is inconceivable that Communism and capitalism can exist side by side. Inevitably one must perish.”

        ——————————————————————————–

        Rykov, Lenin’s successor in the Council of Soviet Commissars:

        Rykov, Lenin’s successor in the Council of Soviet Commissars, corroborated: “It is our duty to inculcate in the minds of nations the theories of international friendship, pacifism, and disarmament, encouraging their resistance to military appropriations and training, without ever relaxing our own efforts in building our military equipment.”

        ——————————————————————————–

        Khrushchev:

        “We cannot expect Americans to jump from capitalism to Communism, but we can assist their elected leaders in giving Americans doses of socialism until they suddenly awake to find out they have Communism.”

        ——————————————————————————–

        Dimitry Z. Manuilsky, Chairman of United Nations Security Council, 1949:

        The quote below is a summation of Manuilsky’s views as cited by Joseph Z. Kornfeder, a former communist and a student of the Lenin School of Political Warfare in 1930 (American Mercury, July 1963.)

        “War to the hilt between communism and capitalism is inevitable. Today, of course, we are not strong enough to attack. Our time will come in 20 to 30 years. To win, we shall need the element of surprise. The bourgeoisie will have to be put to sleep. So we shall begin by launching the most spectacular peace movement on record. There will be electrifying overtures and unheard-of concessions. The capitalist countries, stupid and decadent, will rejoice to cooperate in their own destruction. They will leap at another chance to be friends. As soon as their guard is down, we shall smash them with our clenched fist.”

        ——————————————————————————–

        MIKHAIL GORBACHEV’s speech at the 70th anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution (1987):

        “… In October 1917, we parted with the old world, rejecting it once and for all. We are moving toward a new world, a world of Communism. We shall never turn off that road.”

        And from his speech to the Soviet Politburo, November 1987:
        “Gentlemen, comrades, do not be concerned about all you hear about Glasnost and Perestroika and democracy in the coming years. These are primarily for outward consumption. There will be no significant internal changes in the Soviet Union, other than for cosmetic purposes. Our purpose is to disarm the Americans and let them fall asleep. We want to accomplish three things: One, we want the Americans to withdraw conventional forces from Europe. Two, we want them to withdraw nuclear forces from Europe. Three, we want the Americans to stop proceeding with Strategic Defense Initiative.”

        ——————————————————————————–

        NORMAN THOMAS, for many years the U.S. Socialist Presidential candidate proclaimed:

        “The American people will never knowingly adopt Socialism. But under the name of ‘liberalism’ they will adopt every fragment of the Socialist program, until one day America will be a Socialist nation, without knowing how it happened.”

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        • Blind Read Ant

          1) Most Americans are blinded by the UN’s creation. From my best sources, the Prussian War was the creation of it. The American Civil War was merely the debt that eventually obligated America into the current Communist trajectory.

          2) While source attribution can credibly be questioned, the intent has not.

          It’s dubious to attribute this to Lenin, as a politician, when Marx and Engels were patronized to implement the social aspect to the economic revolution that was intended by design.

          If a person would fail to discern whether Cicero or Homer made a statement, would the statement’s argument lose its valour [sic]? I think not.

          Interesting, DMG, that you would question the Russian intent given your avatar. I would have thought you to know better. No?

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  30. SUBCOMANDANTE CHINCHINILLA!!!!!
    SUBCOMANDANTE CHINCHINILLA!!!!!

    First!

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  31. Trading_Nypmh

    Have a HUGE rally at a very stupid spot, means only ONE THING…CLAMS. Merv “The King Clam” was out promising billions to UK banks. Well, Playbook is Oct 2011…I have to check to see how long that UK fueled rally lasted.

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