The 2008 crisis is nothing compared to what we are seeing now. The 10 yr yields are less than the dividend yield of the S&P 500. The TLT is north of 126 and the entirety of the European financial system is on the precipice of ruins. You’re not feeling it appropriately because US banks are doing well and our economy is plodding along with elegance.
But it’s grim out there.
Investors are brooding over the current scenario because the math doesn’t work. The Germans are more frightened of hyper-inflation than the reality of now, which is MASSIVE deflation on a monumental scale. For those of you keenly fixed on inflation, proclaiming the dollar to be worth less than toilet paper: you Sir are an ass. Inflation was never the issue. It was parlour tricks at play, making you believe we were reflating, giving the feeling of growth and prosperity.
The truth of the matter is, we never recovered from the 2008 melt down and now find ourselves in a very bad position, having our fate tethered to the original butt-fuckers in Europe.
ATTENTION Federal Reserve: We are now deeply inside of the Deflationary Vortex. Everyone is doing “The Hugh Hendry” and equity multiples will continue to compress until someone does something about it. Yes, I am asking for QE, not for the sake of my portfolios, which are superficial in nature, but for the benefit of mankind.
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I would argue that the US Economy is peddling with elegance.
It is growing at 2% but the fiscal debt has more than doubled in 4 years.
Cut the fiscal deficit and the US economy enters recession right away.
What is debt worth?
Your argument is stupid, as we print our own money.
Now is the time to “Do the Hugh”, as the baguette loving queers are doing on the streets of Paris, and the feta cheese eating homos are doing on the streets of Athens.
THEY KNOW NOTHING !!!! THEY KNOW NOTHING !!!!
On the serious side, I am participating in mortgage rate deflation. My broker approached me a month or 2 ago. I said no thanks, rates will be going lower.. I am still waiting.
OK, Let me be an asshole here – I hope the Germans stick to their guns even if markets are obliterated and people start starving – actions have consequences and Europeans and the world needs to pay for them.
I know you enjoy the bailouts and money printing as much as the politician you’re ranting against but I hope you get disappointed soon.
Wish you good luck trading, though.
That’s because it isn’t happening to you. If you were on the verge of starvation, you’d ask for food, would you not?
D’Angeli lives in a fantasy world where those most responsible for the problems in Europe are the ones who would starve.
D’Angeli also should consider what the next move of a starving person is after they ask for food and are told “no”. I recall mention of consequences by someone around here.
What happens 6 – 9 months after the additional QE, if the economy doesn’t pick up. Prop the worlds largest economy up for how long, and at what risk? – serious question…
POMO
No risk if you’re at the top
There is a good chance the fed will do something in a few days, because of this post.
Fly, what does thou PPT say? Are we in harmonious mathematical precision of O/S?
Not yet
If we’re not done selling, then why may I ask are you “buying”? Isn’t that betting against yourself?
I swapped out of EXK yesterday for CLF. I didnt buy today
2% growth with a 7% deficit is far from elegant – it is tire spinning
Strong dollar will soon mean SP500 EPS downgrades
The PE premium to the rest of the world will have to tighten
We have RECORD low borrowing rates. The national debt is fucking irrelevant.
Now go put your monkey suit back on and juggle some bananas for me.
Record low borrowing rates are a sign of fucktitude and deflation – not opportunity.
Welcome to global Japan
The Beard must…will print – but US equities are coming back to the pack near term
Waiting for the Beard? You will envy my Monkey Suit from your Clown Suit
REBOOT THE SYSTEM
LET MANKIND TO HIS OWN DEVICES
Fuck that.
Anyone who wants to live through a reboot of the system is thinking like a child. This isn’t tv. Shit gets real bad, real fast.
The central bankers are unleashigng the slow burn of the US dollar and the Euro since they will use this to destroy middle class wealth. Once finished, they will create new regional currencies and a new global reserve currency, and write off the bad debt. This will also help them to usher in communitarian regional and world govt.
The deflation concerns will be blown out of proportion for the sole purpose of rapidly inflating the US dollar and Euro once again, which will ultimately lead to the destruction of both currencies and renewed efforts toward unifying the EU and the North American Union.
Isn’t there something else that can be done without printing vast sums of money yet again? Haven’t we already tried this? Won’t we simply be back here again in a couple of years asking for more QE after this latest round of parlor tricks runs its course?
Perhaps accepting our screwing now would be better than waiting.
Question:
Did printing money help the economy recover from 2008 depression?
You are forgetting the answers.
Well, I think those that have been out of work for 2-3 years would suggest it never ended. I think those whose houses are underwater would wonder where the help is. I think those who are wondering how to pay the $50 gasoline fill up each week wonders about the answers. Maybe the rise in price in virtually every food group makes people wonder when the depression will end. But thank goodness everyone’s stocks recovered. Or whatever is left after retail investors pulled out to pay the mortgage.
Fuck it. Since monetary sanity is not relevant let’s just have a stimulus of 40 trillion dollars. Every month. Krugman and his ilk will stain themselves with joy. Everyone with a single issue of stock will instantly be a millionaire. We can drown ourselves in consumer shit.
Sorry, I’m just really bummed that our government has put us in this place. I worry this ends badly…it never had to be this way.
Do you really think the masses are going to ask for a depression? They will not, because it would be fucking terrifying and people would in fact die. People will push it off for as long as they can.
Cool, just so long as we can make sure our children and their children suffer for it.
I don’t have an answer. Seems nothing the government does will work. It’s just pushing it away..until what? What happens when QE 14 just…doesn’t…work?
I can’t stand QE haters, read this
http://ibankcoin.com/rhino/2012/05/29/at-a-loss-for-words/
and this
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-28/dollar-scarce-as-top-quality-assets-shrink-42-after-stimulus.html
Velocity of money. That’s what matters, not the “supply” of it. Supply is just magic accounting games anyway. It all comes down to actual utilization of consumable and non-renewable resources, and that is not overheating in the slightest.
Truth
DISSENT: Ethics are not magic; unless, I must speculate, your pattern is scheming to defraud.
So your solution is to keep printing money, propping up these big banks that are holding shit load of these irresponsible governments’ debts, and getting even more in debt.
Anyone holding financials assets is in favor of more debt to prop up the system.
Sounds ok to me
If your ao bearish on the economy , why you getting everything long ?
Jim/Greg, the average investor/citizen has no clue what would happen if the CDS market got triggered by a large sovereign default. Mad max would be Fairyland compared to the destruction of such a scenario. It would truly be horrific, compliments of your US Investment Banker/Quant. The fact is Ben is waiting for max pain so he can justify new QE programs and lessen the civil unrest of doing such programs. It is a balancing act and the longer we go on the harder it will become to balance for the Fed. Fly is getting long because QE is liquidity, and liquidity will juice the markets much higher from here over time.
Sierra sees through the forest.
so the play is gold/silver ?? commodities?? oil?? aapl?? in anticipation of QE3??
Any reflation play will do
CDS is what got us into this mess.
CDS are a freaking joke.. created to make Jami Diamond rich as fuck. and by the magic of a pen create the illusion of less risk and more capital on the balance sheet. if the other side of the trade cant pay.. its not a hedge. And they could careless, as long as we make coin.
nice post Sierra. At what level SP do you figure max pain will be before CTRL-P is hit?
Agreud Indeud
“toilet people”?
toilet paper?
Pathetic!! Is this what you have come down to; asking for qe looool. Put on you goggles and grab your knife Satan will visit you shortly.
BANNED.
I know the devil and we are friends.
Not even at 200MA yet and your asking for QE. Seriously, should every time you loose some coin in the markets we should print trillions? Its obvious your only interest is your trading account and not the future of this country. You should be asking for all the assholes in congress to stop wasting billions on bullshit projects. QE won’t help you now. The reality of bankrupt governments is setting in. You should be asking for deregulation of manufacturing as we don’t produce a damn thing anymore. You think you can base an sound economy on YELP? Get real!
Answer me this:
What harm has printing money done to you, personally?
Also, if we hadn’t printed money, how do you suppose it would have affected your life?
Quit being distracted by my positions you droll.
If you told me that we will print money to create a project to make this country the preeminent manufacturer of nanotechnology and all the money would seriously go towards that aim or some other real project to transform the economy I would say it may be worth it. You know the money is not going towards any plan to sustain long term growth. Its a bunch of corrupt bankers bailing out the broken markets that will still be broken after QE-N! So if we print QE-3 you think we are saved? If they showed us they really had a plan after QE-1 then maybe we wouldn’t need QE-3? They are hoping that magically the economy will recover down the road and out of nowhere dot.com 2 will emerge. It won’t happen with all the taxes and regulation and the inept and corrupt politicians. It will happen when people wake up and throw out the corrupt bastards and stop expecting government to solve all their problems.
It will work.
Oh and this time is never different. It always ends the same way.
This is all part of the plan. They can’t print with oil at $110. It would fucking ruin the poor. There’s no income elasticity to absorb that kind of fucking nonsense.
So now they need to butcher the hedge fund guys, to rain their blood on the starving masses.
You’ll get your QE3. Sucks to be long margin into March though, because your ass is dead.
So we ALL agree QE IS coming… whether we agree on whether its a good decision or not: I think the key is the precious metals, until they catch a good bid stay short. Gold & Silver will be the “tell” to cover shorts and get long on Ben’s back.
Sierra is right…but it does get more difficult to kick this 2000 foot sponge we call a world economy every time. Getting long here.
Banks are holding $1.5 trillion in excess reserves. What happens when this money begins to flow into the economy? No inflation?
Even if the FED jacks up rates to deal with or get ahead of this inflation, now what happens to our debt and more importantly, our ability to service this debt?
We can’t grow fast enough to get out.
A Time for Choosing
Ahhhh, “Now why don’t you put your monkey suit back on and juggle some bananas for me” is a new favorite. I’m not in the habit of using other people’s material, but I plan to use that at the earliest opportunity.
It’s like, “Now go get yer fuckin’ shinebox,” but more of a put-down.
Patience as the golden card will be drawn at the right time in this poker game. It will be drawn within the first 2 weeks of June.
>whether we agree on whether its a good decision or not: I
As a commentator or as a citizen, I do care about good ideas vs. huge mistakes, right and wrong, etc.
As a trader I only care about what actually happens.
i will tell you what needs to be done ….all those countries tied into the euro need to get together and take over all those oil wells ,,,while the world watches and sees nothing….then we pay them for the oil not the fuckers who want us dead …
All the Europeans with balls already moved here or died during the world wars.
A bunch of Europeans trying to go Rambo? Ha!!!
Cub Scout Troop 824 has as much chance of success as the Eurofaggots.
Again, there is no constituancy for the bdeflation vortex – none. The powers of wealth do very well in an inflationary context – they own things that increase in value – land, forests, factories, so on. The poor get screwed as food, gas, rents go up but they are more worried about the immediate dole disappearing so they support the printing too. No support anywhere for nthe vortex. Thus the print. Done deal.
Just wait until the debt ceiling issue rears its head again. That’ll be cute.
Before betting on a collapse take this into consideration — in the last 21 election years there have been only 3 years where the S&P 500 index had a negative return.
57% of the time we had double digit returns.
returns during election years are truly irrelevant – 2008 was an election year.
Not with an incumbent running though.
Right on, we need to fire up the printing press and create some Benjamins… In Bernanke we trust
How has inflation hurt? Prices at the stores, prices at the gas pump.
The poor and the middle class have very little, if any, money in the stock market. They aren’t helped by all the money printing.
Let’s not pretend the call for more QE is to help the economy. It’s more like the rich wanting their assets propped up. They have a lot, and a lot to lose.
Jim
Inflation was never the issue. Deflation destroys society. The social fabric of America will devolve into anarchy.
We cannot take away the disease: but we can offer morphine for the dying patient via easing.
If you are old or aren’t in a desirable job field (which many poor and middle class folks aren’t), you are suffering from wage deflation. Oh, and their home prices have deflated too. Is that what you mean?
Otherwise, if you do your shopping, you’d know bread, milk, food costs have gone up.
The end result, riots and anarchy, I agree with you on that.
stop eating so much. take the bus with the smelly people. keep your old phone. stop tipping. throw away your wife’s depression medicine and smoke pot. America’s middle class is spoiled stupid.
btw- I kept my old clam shell phone as long as I could. Then Verizon started degrading service coverage of older phones. They reallocated their spectrum and authorized radio power towards smartphone customers.
Jim
Let’s just agree that we are fucked and you want to end it now, while I want to end it later.
Deflation is the killer. Much rather have inflation.
Remember wages and bonuses deflate also.
BTW, Your debt remains constant.
The depth if ignorance of the inflationistas is astonishing. What is even more astonishing is their lack of intellectual honesty to admit that they were wrong in saying the easing that occurred during 2008 would cause great inflation. Where’s the inflation assholes?
Same old shit, different day. A bunch of looser [sic] rent seekers, with their tin cup held out to the hand of mother government to protect their fat lazy arses.
LET THE POOR STARVE! They loudly proclaim while their fat rent seeking asses are protected with their lobbyists fattened at the public hog trough.
Move along. Nothing to see here.
its better to pay off your debts with inflated dollars
mr fly…are you suffering from depression and projecting it onto the market..schaudenfraud much?
In what regard?
Specifics boy.
not hearing govts or central banks sayn their backn their shit up with gold
never will. you want to see the end of days back your currency with gold. if it wasn’t for FRN and move off gold credit would not have grown and we never would have had the boom years we did.
Hopefully, Ben take a look @ this post n do the QE thing. All we can do is just hope… lol
On the bright side, a can of Coke Light in Italy is now $5 instead of $6. Bring on the inflationary spiral.
Duh — deflationary. I have my head up my ass.
Fed announces a new round of QE to begin the day after the November election, just like in 2010.