I remember when DELL was the shit and the markets were cratering (and I mean cratering) back in 1998. The stock would go up $3 per day, whilst the rest of the market crapped out. During every big run, there is always an “anointed” stock, a place where money managers and retail park cash for safety and growth- dual purpose. Apple is no longer your tell, unless you own AAPL. The market can drop 400 today and AAPL will close up 40 cents.
You need to watch the sectors that have been leading the market to see if they are rolling over. Inside of The PPT, I set up custom indexes, in order to serve this purpose. Banks and commodities have rolled over the hardest, threatening 3 month lows, believe it or not. Social networking and tech have held up much better. In the middle of everything is my GARP (growth at a reasonable price) index. These are stocks, hand picked by me every 6 months, that represent growth but with good to great valuation metrics. Some index members include: GMCR, AAPL, ADS, ARUN, WYNN, FOSL, CAT etc.
Here is the 3 mo chart for GARP:
What do you think?
From my untrained, disdainful eye for technical analysis, it looks top heavy, ready to fall.
We’re all relying on mystical governmental powers to buoy stocks higher here. But keep in mind, those rapacious dicksuckers want lower gas just as much as higher stocks. How do you get lower gas? Deflation scare.
Under that scenario, stocks trade lower and TLT goes back to $120. I take it upon myself, through the foraging of information from every corner of the globe, to identify inflection points well in advance of my peers. Regrettably, thanks to the sorcery and smoke screens of The Fed, I have no fucking idea what is in store next. All I know, like a blind man using instinct when crossing the street, danger lurks around the corner and the season to be defensive or bearish approaches with celerity.