Wednesday, December 7, 2016
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
14,855 Blog Posts

Non-Event: Apple Hits Another All-Time High

I remember when DELL was the shit and the markets were cratering (and I mean cratering) back in 1998. The stock would go up $3 per day, whilst the rest of the market crapped out. During every big run, there is always an “anointed” stock, a place where money managers and retail park cash for safety and growth- dual purpose. Apple is no longer your tell, unless you own AAPL. The market can drop 400 today and AAPL will close up 40 cents.

You need to watch the sectors that have been leading the market to see if they are rolling over. Inside of The PPT, I set up custom indexes, in order to serve this purpose. Banks and commodities have rolled over the hardest, threatening 3 month lows, believe it or not. Social networking and tech have held up much better. In the middle of everything is my GARP (growth at a reasonable price) index. These are stocks, hand picked by me every 6 months, that represent growth but with good to great valuation metrics. Some index members include: GMCR, AAPL, ADS, ARUN, WYNN, FOSL, CAT etc.

Here is the 3 mo chart for GARP:

What do you think?

From my untrained, disdainful eye for technical analysis, it looks top heavy, ready to fall.

We’re all relying on mystical governmental powers to buoy stocks higher here. But keep in mind, those rapacious dicksuckers want lower gas just as much as higher stocks. How do you get lower gas? Deflation scare.

Under that scenario, stocks trade lower and TLT goes back to $120. I take it upon myself, through the foraging of information from every corner of the globe, to identify inflection points well in advance of my peers. Regrettably, thanks to the sorcery and smoke screens of The Fed, I have no fucking idea what is in store next. All I know, like a blind man using instinct when crossing the street, danger lurks around the corner and the season to be defensive or bearish approaches with celerity.

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  1. tech guy looking at chart
    tech guy looking at chart

    consolidation phase. Could put in double top if decline resumes, could put in double bottom if it rallies from here. Being that 2nd top is higher, it is slightly less likely we have a major breakdown here and downtrend. If we put in a higher low and stocks rally it is a good sign

  2. THEosu

    Big banks look o.k. here and we could
    get a quick rotation to financials .

    • horsetradin

      JPM earn on Friday. Could be all sorts of fuckery. My bet is to the long side. They haven’t trotted out mascot, D. Bove in a while, he is stinking up the green room in anticipation.

  3. drummerboy

    it’s all a mirage

  4. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Do you really think they will listen? I doubt it. FIG.

  5. Frog

    I don’t know what Ben could come up with for this purpose– but if he can make up a story that will give folks a reason to sell commods but to buy non-commod stocks, then he will certainly do so.

    • leftcoasttrader

      Didn’t you hear? According to the Fed they were never actually printing money. It was all a big misinterpretation. Of course one doesn’t bother to clear up those small details when oil is at $70.

  6. Cascadian

    If you put AAPL in your GARP index you get a better looking chart.

    • riggedgame

      Sane people don’t give a fuck about what happens in the Middle East, and they stay the hell out of there.

      Let them bomb each other to smithereens.

  7. pyromonoxide

    Great dark song/video pick for this morning. Rocking out while watching the carnage.

  8. MetalLeg

    I don’t see them letting this market slide too far. It destroys their “recovery” argument, that everything they’ve done to date has been “working.” We all know that it’s not the case but the sheep equate the Dow 30 to the economy and the economy is “recovering” so the Dow can’t fall too far.

    How does Bernanke introduce QE3 and say that it will do the trick once QE1 & QE2 have proven to be failures? They cannot show the failures of QEs 1 & 2 so they will pump sooner rather than later.

    There may be a small scare to get bears lined up and then it’ll be sledgehammer to the scrotum time for the bears once again.

  9. riggedgame

    Who says the recovery is not working?

    The stock market has doubled, economic growth is 2.5% per year with NO RECESSION since mid 2009; corporate profits are at record highs, the auto industry is solid.

    Any neutral observer would rate the economy as excellent.

  10. Hack

    There will never be another DELL because now the underwriters double the amount of shares offered at double the price no matter what company it is. Hence we see a lot of busted IPO’s. CEO’s are stupid / greedy.

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