Here we go again. European indexes are knifing lower, with Germany and France off by more than 1.7% and 2.4% respectively. The big deal is Spanish and Italian sovereign bond yields, with Spain approaching the ominous 6% level. In the short term, this can definitely shake people out of their stocks, especially since we’re heading into earnings season anyway. With the S&P up 11% year to date, there are profits to be taken. Unfortunately, not everyone has fared so well.
For the most part, the basic material sector has been raked to pieces in 2012. This has been a sector, traditionally, that tracked the market closely, offering outsized returns during periods of “risk on.” This has NOT been the case in 2012. Those investors are down for the year, suffering under great piles of metals and farm equipment.
Like last year, there is a good chance we give back all of our gains here, heading into the somber summer months. And, once again, I called the top and positioned for it, yet find myself fully invested into the fucking vortex of the correction. History repeats itself because people never learn from their mistakes. By the time people “get it,” they die.
All in all, today’s tape is dreadful. I haven’t even bothered to open up my trading platform, as I have no intentions to buy or sell anything. I am not selling because of stubbornness and I’m not buying because the sellers are in control.
Nevertheless, this panic mongering and subsequent market sell off will be dealt with in the same manner as the previous set of crises: central bank intervention and free money. This is all show business and none of it will lead to the collapse of the EU. Like it or not, they are “all in” on this EU experiment, as demonstrated by their LTRO actions. In recent years, betting against the stupidity of policy makers, ironically, has been the dumbest trade of all.
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The market ran out of cocaine too fast and is now depressed because the world is going to end.
However it doesn’t see that Benny and his Euro friends will provide them with cocaine and redbull forever.
Rates are at 0% until at least the end of 2014.
Faired = fared*
But great points… getting back in gold soon!
Not soon. NOW!
Sir Fly, are you still holding CPST? The news seems all good (multiple new orders, etc) yet CPST continues to drop. Any thoughts of yours on why this is the case would be greatly appreciated. Cheers
still long
Thank you
Only thing selling is Goldman’s interests in Village Voice Media and Backpage. There is no apparent limit to the breadth of GS’s areas of expertise.
Instead of jumping in the water like you did, I decided to enter slowly, dipping my toes at first felt nice, so I stepped in more; then a fucking shark came out of nowhere and chewed my legs off. At least you got to enjoy the water for a while … I am sitting in a pool of blood and no legs.
I am currently being chased by the shark and he isnt interested in my legs. He wants the whole thing, full meal!
A GAME great cognizant post FLY. I too am not buying or selling. This is a multi year bull market and if you hate your positions today, remember why you bought them. Now, if you will excuse me, I am heading down the elevator to the Beach with an ice cold six of Landshark, as it is a glorious day here in s. florida, and there are more sharks on the cnbc then in the ocean.
Landshark is just dreadful beer.
Subjective
Ah yes, in the 3000 block of s. ocean blvd and it was truly an excellent day at the beach.
Howsoever, landshark is budweiser in a fancy bottle; permissable beach drinking beer.
Woodshedder’s last post before headin to the hills, “if 1370 falls, wait for 1350 then it will be a market wide buy”
from trader talk minutes ago “Indeed: here’s a statistic that should cheer you up. According to Sam Stovall at S&P Capital IQ, there have been 25 times since World War II when the S&P 500 index [.SPX 1364.16 -18.04 (-1.31%) ] has been up in both January and February. In all 25 times, the market has been up for the full year, the average increase was 24 percent, and only in two of the 25 times did it have sub-10-percent events.
I mean, really … we are up 11 percent so far this year, and for everyone who is boldly predicting a market correction sometime soon, may I point out that midyear pullbacks or corrections are the norm. The average year-to-date decline in every year since World War II has been a decline of 9 percent from the prior year close, according to S&P Capital IQ.
So for everyone who is panicking, calm down! And for everyone who thinks there might be some type of midyear correction after going straight up for four months…that is NOT a bold call!”
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$RUT getting very oversold per the stochastics. With $RUT at 787 as I write this, stochastics are at 4 and 13. Will buy a few May TNA calls if both stochastics get into single digits. The last 4 times both were in single digits;
11/23/11 – 7 trading days later $RUT closed 10.8% higher,
8/8/11 – 16 trading days later $RUT closed 11.9% higher
6/8/11 – 20 trading days later $RUT closed 8.9% higher
7/6/10 – 14 trading days later $RUT closed 12.7% higher
Fly,
Are you eyeing EXK?
Nice reversal today and at the lower end of your range…
I think it’s interesting to point out that the PPT oversold for GLD on wednesday was a great signal
GLD and miners doing a happy dance.
I bought some GBG for $0.63 a little while ago. This one’s had the shit beat out of it and should see $1.00 again real soon.
Yeah but…I was waiting for sell in May…
Regardless of whether CBs save the world again, the problem is time – we’ve already seen that these bond yield “death march to 7” stories take *months* to play out, with random cold water sprayed daily by the media in all directions. Equities can get eroded like a mound of sand getting hosed down with that for an environment.
Lots of stealthy buying in PM’s today … nearly all the daily highs today are from the sector.
All this exaggeration is killing me!
I just bought heavy today. This is a great level to buy at least for a bounce. My heaviest positions are EXK, SLW, GDX, SIL, GDXJ. Prepare for the BOUNCE later this week.