iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,430 Blog Posts

SHOMP, With Regards to Gold

This data is being hand delivered to you this evening, with a wax seal, from the confines of The PPT. You can thank me later.

GLD flagged OVERSOLD today on all of our algorithms.

Over the past 12 months, this signal has yet to fail when holding for 5 days or more.

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65 comments

  1. figesmalls

    Ahh, first..and Happy Passover to all.

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  2. thorium

    Delicious

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  3. Dayman

    You can back test hundreds of signals like that. It works until it doesn’t. MACD with the right averages works on 75% of stocks. Sounds great until you get fucked and don’t know whether to add or reverse.

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    • The Fly

      Dayman

      Your statement is obviously accurate with regards to working until it doesn’t, but also ridiculous at the same time.

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      • Dayman

        The signal has a laughably low test rate, any honest statistician would laugh at you while laughing at your incredibly low laughable P-value. Let’s just throw some select RSI’s at the crowd and all share a laugh. Any retarded monkey could find strategies that show 100% accuracy over the past year considering certain parameters.

        You’re a damn good prophet, but not a quant- leave that to the computers.

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        • Dr Fly

          Well, for that insult in my house of profit, you get a full ban.

          The numbers are exactly what they seem to be: 100% accurate over the given time frame. There is no need for 4,000 signals because the stock hasn’t warranted it.

          It has nothing to do with RSI, but price elasticity, measured by 5 key factors, all outlined in the “learn about” page.

          Ignorance is bliss, but in this case a capital punishment.

          You know as much about quant as you do politeness.

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        • dericDarko

          Clearly you’re a piker on the outside of the PPT. Put forth and take a look on the inside; you’ll realize that the algorithms aren’t merely a fucking RSI signal that is manipulated for each particular stock. Get yourself a damn PPT membership and bring your A game from now on.

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        • Taco

          Being a data analyst for Fortune 500 companies, I can tell you that this type of analysis requires something akin to a monte carlo simulation, with 10,000 passes, to arrive at a probability bell curve of the system in question.

          For some reason, I don’t see this happening… despite that this type of analysis, if automated, would greatly amplify the winnings for paid subscribers.

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          • The Fly

            We are not running Monte Carlo simulations for 49 bucks per month. Get real.

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          • Taco

            You can automate it, so why not?

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          • Taco

            BTW, I will be doing my own analysis on GLD now that you made me pay attention to it. Gracias amigo.

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          • Subcomandante ChinchillLLLA!!!
            Subcomandante ChinchillLLLA!!!

            You are rude, yo mama was a Canadian Miss Universe contestant, and your taco is full of rancid dick cheese.

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          • dericDarko

            Just consider the computer processing power necessary to run that for every stock posted in the PPT

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          • Taco

            I would do it for the most popular stocks, not for all. Processing power shouldn’t be too much of an issue these days. You can also build it for sector signals, which covers all stocks, ultimately.

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          • Berserker

            Monte Carlo is a nice place for F1. MC simulations are iterations… nothing special about them – useful when you’ve not got a clue as to how the components interact. In effect, an MC simulation is the most “pure” built-to-fit the data analysis there is, i.e. prone to backtesting to the point of irrelevancy.

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          • Taco

            Berzerker…

            Yes, AND you can use MC for fine-tuning a system that works, as well. The trick with MC is leveraging various isolated historical periods… 2-year market slide historical test… 2-year bull run test… flat market test… and a combo of all. If the bell curve comes out well on one of these, you know when to trade your system.

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          • Berserker

            You don’t know when to trade it… you know when you should have. Seriously though, MC simulations are great tools, especially when you’ve got an understanding for how the components are interacting and you want to layer your analyses.

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        • Whaler31

          Gayman Dayman-

          I cannot believe you would come into iBankCoin and desecrate it with your filth.

          Gold is the future.

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  4. Mr. Cain Thaler

    He has a wax seal. I’ve seen it.

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  5. Hack

    Normally I would take your advise but it’s clear that Ben detests gold. An index fund is the instrument of choice, weighted toward AAPL if possible.

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  6. Mark

    Time to buy more EXK then?

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  7. JTU

    Fly, what are your top gold and silver stocks to buy? Other than EXK, any others?

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  8. Dayman

    Fly, Please give me three letters that will make me rich. Thanks.

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  9. Patrick

    Why folks hate on the ppt and dr. Fly? I just don’t get it

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  10. TeahouseOnTheTracks

    Daily OEW Recap:

    “With today’s drop to SPX 1405 we now have another minor pullback from yesterday’s 1422 uptrend high. We also have the potential for something a lot larger than any pullback during this entire uptrend: a new downtrend. As noted yesterday, we are watching the SPX 1400 and 1430 levels. The recent price action from mid-March at SPX 1414 looks like the potential for an ending diagonal triangle Intermediate Wave V ending the uptrend from November. Above SPX 1430 the uptrend continues into May. Below SPX 1400 the uptrend may have just ended in April at SPX 1422.”

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  11. JTU

    Looks like gold will be oversold some more!

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  12. mtp31

    dips are to be bought until they are not to be bought..

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  13. Asshole Bob

    Futures are kicking longs in the balls

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  14. Yogi & Boo Boo

    You guys argue about stats. I’ll bank coin.

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  15. mhass33

    Metals are in a bear market so I consider this akin to the overbought signals on the general market in January

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  16. asteroids

    Dear FLY: Do you buy GLD here or wait for the recovery phase?

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  17. Rat f

    Has anyone seen Mr “Fully Invested”???

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  18. taqyiyya

    So, Taco! How is that gold analysis coming along? Are you plotting a counter-trend reversal? I’m serious, whattayatink?

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