Trading 8x 2013 earnings, GLW is the proverbial value play that can offer outsized returns, if the stars align for them. The flat screen teevee market is a big driver for Corning Glass (GLW makes the glass for the mobile and television markets). However, the teevee market has been sluggish, due to a long standing oversupply condition in inventories. It’s what bankrupted Circuit City.
But, that shit can change overnight, literally.
Should Apple launch its Apple Teevee in the 4th quarter, I believe this will rejuvenate the teevee market in a number of ways. Not only will people offer to kill each other for a $5,000 Apple teevee, but competitors will copy cat the machine, leading to a boom in the industry—identical to what happened in the phone industry upon the launch of the iPhone. At the time, no one believed Apple would impact RIMM. People bought RIMM, thinking “Apple can’t touch the enterprise side of the business.” Well, Fast forward a few years and not only is Apple eating RIMM’s lunch, but so is Android–reducing the Canadian rotary phone maker to “worthless dicksuckers.”
Now the teevee manufacturing process is a lot different from the phone and it requires a lot more glass to fill a 64 inch screen than a 5 incher. At this stage, I am simply running on logic and gut instinct. But, I’ll get the data together to support my thesis within time. The only problem with buying GLW now is timing. We may be a bit early to the trade and they might miss earnings in the short term. However, in my opinion, any dips should be met with buys, up to $20.
Yes, this a a longer term hold, just like YELP, similar to my previous beliefs in WNR, FTK, GMCR etc.
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Scott B is/was all over this one.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/456621-buy-corning-at-a-discount
My favorite YELP review:
http://twentytwowords.com/2011/08/25/abraham-lincolns-yelp-review-of-fords-theatre/
hahahha this is awesome
GLW also has good “karma” if you investigate its history. Means jack shit to the stock price but its something to contemplate.
I’ve liked this one for a while and traded around a core position.
TVIX @ $6.35
I just can’t stop laughing at this.
Getting the poor and middle class to split with $1500+ for a TV is going to be a heavy lift even for Apple. A highly subsidized iPhone is one thing but a TV that won’t be is another. Plus who wants to do the proprietary yearly upgrade, ala iPhone/Pad/Pod, with a stupid TV? And yes I believe Apple is arrogant enough to suggest it can be done. I think this TV thing will flop for all but the heartiest 5% Applebot. Then again maybe an Apple TV will be in every room, in every building on the planet, with requisite yearly $1500 upgrades. I won’t be betting my money on the premise.
Agreed
They will start @$5k, but within two years, they will be 1-2k. Old story.
What worries me is whether or not GLW has the post-gorilla-glass tech, as much of this might well be priced in. I also don’t understand why they haven’t rallied. That consumers are not buying tis and that there’s oversupply accounts for only part of the story. I’ve heard about mylar displays that you can roll up and walk away with and other technologies that are in the pipeline that will make the convergence of internet and TV (since, after all, that is what we’re talking about here) and other military technology as what is going to be coming up in the next few years.
Anyway, just thoughts. I have a small GLW position.
1500? Ha!
Try 5-10k
Sounds like you’ve already signed up for one lol
I actually like the timing on GLW. It just broke out of a triangle to the upside and had a nice little basing pattern. Fundamental story is still there, even with diminishing TV sales there is a constant rush to touch screen technology being applied everywhere and they all require glass. Up above 14.75 with decent enough volume and I would be a buyer. Good find.
Good ‘ol Glow Worm!
I don’t know…. waiting for shit to change overnight has not worked well for me in the past.
By the way, people are rich, not poor
RGR is a fucking monster. I used to think Beck was a brick shy of a load but he’s right, there will be riots this summer. (Think Zimmerman not guilty). Just what 0bama ordered.
many folks seen that comin a long time ago. rgr quit taking orders before the end of their Q..now is the time to pay close attention to the senator……….
any thoughts on PANL?
A day made of glass $GLW
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38
Yo FLY,
Finally got on to YELP, this A.M I was waiting for my entry. I bought some calls as well.
just like when flat screen 60″ when they first came out.the firms that did the heavy lifting were tv stations,corporations inside their board rooms and training rooms, bars,institutions. after that, the prices usually come down. when you see one some where is prolly when you’d decide if you’d want one or not,cause by that time their cheap.
GLW management blows donkey balls. The business itself is dominant, but they sell into a supply chain of morons. Apple TV is less important than customers going bankrupt or getting out of the kitchen.
While things are dicey now, they’re about to generate crazy cash. Expect dividend increases or buybacks, depending on the stock price.
I would be very surprised if Apple TV was more than a 50% premium over your standard POS. The whole high price myth is why the stock will continue to lead. Other leading smart phones are within $50 of an iPhone’s non sub price. The iPad cannot be touched for $500. Even the “pricey” Air’s true competitors cost equal to or more. I say $1,500 and it blows the doors off the sad state of remotes/cable shit top boxes and brings in a streaming network that starts out with some of what you want but once they get rolling with content…….. Apple afforded me a BMW and it was actually only $2,000 more than a fully loaded Accord. Just saying.
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