Sunday, December 4, 2016
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
14,832 Blog Posts

There is Nothing to Fear

But fear itself.

Aside from the spike in volatility, the market looks okay. Screening for recent winners on dips, with market caps over $500 million, I could only find 39 stocks that have pulled back by 5% or more over the past week. We haven’t seen the leadership names pull back yet. And if they have, the declines are too small to register on any alert bot.

Like the wonderful shares of AAPL, the market is innocent until proven innocent.

Today’s slap in the face of CPST cost me 0.5%. I am not fond of 10% pullbacks and loathe losers like the people from Staten Island ward off sunscreen. Nevertheless, I remain stoically emphatic that we are due for a thrashing, or two, and remain in a 95% cash position awaiting the inevitable. Keep in mind, I do not care about CPST, not in the least. I’ve decided to keep it around, sort of like a dog or a servant, to entertain me for several quarters. I will make real money, from real allocations, whenever I decide to step back in.

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  1. smatthew

    dow to 8000? senor Fly?

  2. Testicules

    I see support buying on several names on my watch list. May have to test the water. Looking back a few years April and May are prime for bigger drops<—(at least the names I'm watching)

    and with that said?
    a 300 point drop Monday

  3. Bullish

    Today was like a colon cleansing… You may not like it but in the long run its good for you.

  4. Mr. Partridge

    funny thing -was driving to my office this morning, car in front of me had a licence plate : HNYBDGR
    must be reading your blog 🙂

    • Po Pimp

      Maybe it was Tyrann Mathieu bumping around in a new sled? If so the NCAA should start an investigation. Said investigation will conclude and sanctions will be imposed around 2035.

      • Yogi & Boo Boo

        From what I’ve been hearing, the NCAA has reversed engineered a time machine and is meting out penalties retroactively while the kids are in junior high or grammar school. No need to wait until they’re in college.

  5. xxxHuggieBearxxx

    I enjoyed today immensely. 300 down points on Monday would be ideal for many reasons.

  6. JTU

    “Aside from the spike in volatility, the market looks okay”. Love your sarcasm!

  7. StockThrust

    95% cash? This has to be the largest cash position I’ve seen from you in years.

  8. fake amish

    in jan 2010 scott brown got elected and the market imploded into a correction. whether it is santorums surge or the 0bama healthcare fuck up that has religious people goin apeshit right now. todays action had a very similar feel.

  9. KCScott

    Maybe the filthy Greeks will say No Sunday and we get that 3% drop

  10. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Baghdad Bob is back? Nice.

  11. alf44


    Born Under A Bad Sign

    Born under a bad sign …
    I’ve been down since I began to crawl !
    If it wasn’t for bad luck …
    I wouldn’t have no luck at all !

    Bad luck and trouble’s my only friend !
    I’ve been down ever since I was ten !
    Born under a bad sign …
    I’ve been down since I began to crawl !
    If it wasn’t for bad luck …
    I wouldn’t have no luck at all !

    You know, wine and women is all I crave !
    A big bad woman’s gonna carry me to my grave !
    Born under a bad sign …
    I’ve been down since I began to crawl !
    If it wasn’t for bad luck …
    I wouldn’t have no luck at all !

    Bad luck and trouble’s been my only friend !
    I’ve been down ever since I was ten !
    Born under a bad sign …
    I’ve been down since I began to crawl !
    If it wasn’t for bad luck …
    I wouldn’t have no luck …
    If it wasn’t for real bad luck …
    I wouldn’t have no luck at all !!!

    Born under a bad sign !!!
    Born under a bad sign !!!

    ~ Booker T. Jones ~


  12. TeahouseOnTheTracks

    OEW Daily Recap:

    “The market did find support in the upper 1330s within the first hour, and tried to rally. Short term RSI momentum did get extremely oversold for the first time in about two weeks.”

    “While we can not rule out a retest of today’s low, or even a break slightly below on Monday, it appears Minute Wave iv is near conclusion, and Minute Wave v, up into the OEW 1363 pivot range, should be next.”

    Go short if you dare ….

  13. Blind Read Ant

    BTW: nail (NO MO) thru “pushas” nose. Good dai

  14. razorsedge

    met a jewish guy today, said he wanted to make kosher beer. hes gonna call it HE-BREW.

  15. discoordinated

    Somebody tell me what I am looking at here, please. I am trying to read up on HNR but I am seeing nothing in this filing.

  16. ripper

    hey fly, think that offering from gsvc to buy more facebook and twitter shares sounds pretty good….buy it again here? I am in

  17. Frog

    Joke: A conservative, a moderate, and a liberal walk into a bar.

    The bartender says “Hello, Mitt.”

    • Blind Read Ant

      HOBOama walks into bar, FROG licks the floor he walks on. Good dai.

      • Mad_Scientist

        I agree with the premise of Frog’s joke, and I hate ozero. I don’t really get your name for him though. How do you pronounce that?

        • riggedgame

          So you hate Obama, eh?

          After all:. He has done NOTHING except get the stock market up 80% to 11-year highs, taken employment from 760,000 per month of job LOSSES to 200,000 per month GAINS; ended the Iraq War and gotten us out, is getting us
          OUT of Afghanistan next year; captured and killed Osama Bin Laden and Khadaffi and 23 of the top 30 Arab terrorist leaders, saved GM and Chrysler, taken us from the Bush Depression to positive economic growth six months after he took over with 3% real growth projected for this year,reduced the deficit in every year since Bush’s last deficit, and has been in charge while business profits and cash go to record highs.

          And 30-year mortgage rates at 3.8%, inflation is down at its lowest level in 35 years, with bonds at record highs.

          I guess you were spoiled by Dimwit Bush.

        • Blind Read Ant

          Hate’s for fools who cannot refrain from speaking.

          I, outright, believe Bill Clinton and Hussein HOBOama are traitors.

          Clinton sold America down the economic death march with assistance of Mr. R(h)ino Gingrich there.

          Fast forward a little more than a decade, and the congress has been holy [sic] corrupted. Only in a completely twisted world would congress make there millions “first”, then pass the Stock Act ( LOL. This shit’s beyond comedy.

          I probably owe it to my country to go into politics and devour these fuckers, restore order, and pull a TR on our enemies. But until then, listen and learn.

          They properly impeached Clinton. I’ll defer to the Senate’s decisions on the criminal element side. (i.e. Supreme Court ultimate US Bosses).

          For the high crimes and misdemeanors already mentioned in posts, Barry should be removed from office.

          No joke. Seriously. With due process rights, of course, respected.

          As an American, I love this country, you fools who sell your souls for money are hopeless.

          That’s why you like bull shit slogans such as “Hope” and “Change”. Bull shit dude. It’s false, if you prefer ENGLISH. But I know liberals gravitate towards obscenities. So I’m trying to speak your language.

        • MCPJ

          Dude you truly suffer from confirmation bias. It is easy to say unemployment drops when the government can readjust who they consider unemployed (look at U6 unemployment as a start). It’s all part of the doublespeak campaign waged on your mind.

          Regarding the end of the Iraq war, the status of forces agreement (SOFA) that removed all US troops from the country was signed by Bush. It was the nobel peace price winner Obama who wanted to keep 10,000+ combat Soldiers but the Iraqi government said no. Instead Obama created a 16,000 person State Department embassy.

          We have more Soldiers in Afghanistan now than at any other point in the war thanks to Obama and his continuation of Bush era policies.

          Saved GM/Chrysler at what cost to taxpayers and bondholders? $25 billion? Probably more… But he made sure the UAW got a sweetheart deal through bankruptcy.

          Reduced the deficit every year. Is this a joke? BAHAHA this must be joke. He has increased the federal debt more than every single president combined (including Bush)!

          Close Guantanamo- Nope; Illegal drone wars and assassinations of Americans without due process- check; Illegal use of force to kill a world leader and Libyan civilians- check; re-authorization of the Patriot Act- check; Billions wasted on failed manipulations in the “alternative energy” market-check; continuation of Bush’s warmongering foreign policy- check;

          Bush is a joke and so is Obama, the problem is that the joke is painful and hurts us all.

        • Blind Read Ant

          Wrong again. You’re scale of thought doesn’t take flight.

          I commend you for understanding some details.

          But the “one party” argument is the double speak that you are, or were, the first to mention.

          You may want to study history a bit more first. It’s a hobby of mine.

        • Blind Read Ant

          Ur, I mean your. Oh well (BRA takes 5th new keyboard and throws into rather decent fire, where’d the gas mask go?).

        • riggedgame

          History MAY be a hobby of yours. It, like English, certainly isn’t and field of study you mastered.

        • Blind Read Ant

          Tell that to my publisher: Penguin.

        • MCPJ

          Hobby may be a hobby but critical reasoning must be devoid from your studies. Can you identify specific policy differences between the two parties save abortion and gay marriage; economic policy, entitlements, drug policy, health-care, foreign policy, militarization, bail-outs- both parties share near identical policy positions. Neither party is governed by a philosophy but just objective “lines in the sand” and in order remain in power they all straddle that line in the sand

        • MCPJ

          *History may be a hobby…

        • riggedgame

          1. The BLS makes seasonal adjustments in the stats all the time. These are CONSISTENT.

          2. I don’t give a fuck WHO signed any Iraq status of forces agreement. BUSH got us in there – Obama got us out.

          3. Obama is getting us out of Afghanistan in 2013. BUSH got us in there – Obama is getting us out.

          4. GM and Chrysler are prospering and have paid back, or are paying back any loans. The dimwit Republicans wanted to let them die.

          5. And in your penultimate paragraph, all these ills are REPUBLICAN policy (except energy). The anti-Obama House and Senate prevents their changing.
          Obama wants to reduce dependency on oil, especially foreign oil, as any SANE person would do, rather than preferring their fatass wife drives her SUV around to shopping malls all day, blabbing on her cell phone.

        • heaterman

          Completely brainwashed and devoid of any understanding.

        • MCPJ

          I do not propose that the republicans are better than Obama. I was merely pointing to the fact that Obama is no different than his predecessor in most of his policy. Saying we were spoiled by Dimwit Bush is saying that we are being spoiled by Dimwit Obama.

          1. I am not talking about seasonal adjustments. I refer you to the actual unemployment numbers regardless of season. We have a 66% labor participation rate in the market right now. Most freighting is the 16-24 unemployment rate. If you understand economics, you will understand why that does not bode well for the future- unless you are a fan of the perpetual welfare state we are creating!

          2.Confirmation bias- Obama wanted to continue the war in Iraq and thank god the Iraqi’s said NO!

          3. What does get us out mean? We will continue to have 15k + combat soldiers in Afghanistan for the indefinite future.

          4.GM is prospering? Are you fucking high? Have you seen their chart? The volt sells 500 cars a month. The taxpayer will only break even only if the stock price goes above $60. Good luck! Obama took your money (if you pay taxes) and gave it to the UAW.

          5. The USA is now a net exporter of fuel. But you wouldn’t know that would you? Energy independence is a buzz word for the masses, but the truth is much different. Obama put a moratorium on domestic gulf drilling and refuses to open federal land for drilling.

          Obama signs legislation which continues the Bush era policies. The NDAA, Patriot Act re-authorization, drone wars etc… all authorized or signed by Obama.

        • Blind Read Ant

          Also. To the Bush haters. Know this. Your grandchildren will one day pay in USD with a Bush on the bill. So there!

          Forecast: HOBOama will be a future Supreme Court Justice. One of the few (as legislator, president and justice – mark the calender and record – even though I abhor the idea). You watch!

  18. QBert

    Hey Senior Fly, what platform do you use for news/research etc (thom/IQ/fact etc) ??

  19. razorsedge

    greece passes da bill whit sweeping cuts…tada