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Yearly Archives: 2011

Fly Buy: NGD

I bought 75,000 NGD

Disclaimer: If you buy NGD because of this post, the dollar will collapse, rendering your stock markets gains entirely and utterly worthless. And, you may lose money.

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Side Note: CCME

I do not own the stock. Keep that in mind. However, I fucking HATE these boiler room, pizza boy analysts who issue fraud reports. They are liars and manipulators. I don’t trust them.

At any rate, in an effort to give “equal time” to the people who believe in CCME, here is a quick note by one of its shareholders, alleging the boiler room bloggers are committing forgery.

SHOCKER!

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Death to the Dollar

The long anticipated decline in the dollar has yet to begin. Last year was all Europe. They had their PIGS meltdown, which led to dollar strength. However, with the municipal crisis looming here in the states, one could surmise that the “safe haven” status of the greenback is in jeopardy. You know the story. I don’t have to repeat it.

Separate from today’s market action, the overall trend for dollar based commodities is up. As you know, I have always panned gold and silver. But, as the years trickle away, I grow fond of it. At the present, I am heavily long both EXK and NGD. In addition to precious metals, I like ag and oil. However, it’s worth noting, at  the moment crude is correcting.

The market needs to correct; but it doesn’t want to. It’s being propped up by people who have nowhere else to put their money. Consider the record amounts of cash on corporate balance sheets. Then, on top of that, the U.S. now has a savings rate of 6%. Are you going to put money in bonds, CD’s? I think not.

Considering the fact that gold and silver are lagging year to date, look for the asset allocation fuckers to come piling in, as the dollar meets its fate.

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Small Cap Commodity Movers

Using a basic PPT screen to find low priced commodity stocks with a technical reading at “buy” or higher, here are some noteworthy results.

DNN, CXC, URRE, SSN, GBG, WH, PLG and PZG.

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1,800 Points to Go

Save the credit crisis, global growth never stopped, umm, growing. Take the estimates at face value, since you have no choice, and there is no debating: this market is heading to 14,000. I know it makes no sense to you, especially since you have a dog’s brain. Consider this: the credit crisis never happened. It’s been erased from history and the scars are removed via plastic surgery. Companies are operating lean and banging out outrageous profits. The automobile industry is generating so much cash, F will be able to pay down all of its debt within a few years. The airlines are screaming higher, thanks to fattened margins.

I repeat: this is as good as it gets.

While there will be ups and downs, the trend is up. More importantly, the fundamentals are phenomenal. Ignore the naysayers; they are not money makers. It’s the people who risk it all that make the most. I am not advocating “risking it all,” since that is also a marvelous strategy towards insolvency. However, I am suggesting that you check the homofied fear at the door, else don’t play the game.

For the day, I enjoyed modest gains, thanks to MOS, AGU, EXK, ATPG and NGD. My year to date gains are small, about 4%. I’ve been washing out of stocks too quickly and unbalanced with my allocations. However, the year is young and I know exactly where to put my resources.

Top picks: NGD, AGU

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPeE2KTSC0Y 616 500]

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Elasticity Has Been Eliminated

So you’re sitting there drinking a fine glass of chardonnay, perusing the fashion section of the NY Times, and up comes some brutish jerkoff from Brooklyn. He queries: “yo, fuck face, yoos short stocks or what?” Startled by the poor grammar and gaudy gold chains, you retort: “I beg your pardon. As a matter of fact, yes, I am short of U.S equities. Now if you would excuse me…”

BAM! He then punches your glass of chardonnay (95 rated, RP) into your face, then walks away.

That’s exactly how this market is behaving, rude, belligerent and woefully ignorant. We are in a new paradigm people. Attempting to gauge the market using old methods is equal to using an abacus to figure out complex trigonometry problems.

The dollar hasn’t even begun to decline. As a matter of fact, it was up last year. Wait until the municipal crisis hits. Count on egregious bailouts, followed by another raising of the debt ceiling. This is end of days financing, folks. I strongly recommend stockpiling heavy bags of rice in your garage while you can. If the inflation thesis starts to play out you will see outrageous increases in the price of gold, silver and commodities. If you think cotton is expensive now, look it up in 3 years, then come back to this post to let us know how it played out.

In summary, I am heavily positioned to profit from inflation. I am long MOS, AGU, NGD, EXK, GTE, KEG and ATPG.

As an aside, the Seeking Alpha crowd is panning CCME again. Let me make this clear: I am not long the stock, but harbor extreme disdain for this pizza delivery boys posing as analysts on the internet, posting shit to manipulate share prices. I have NEVER seen anything like this in my career. These clowns are operating with impunity. The stock gapped up $2 this morning, so some schmuck who is likely short the stock combats the move with an unchecked allegation of fraud. The result: the stock reverses $3 to the downside. Un-fucking-believable.

You probably don’t care about it now; because it’s not happening to your stocks. But, believe you me, this sort of renegade journalism is dangerous and should be looked into immediately, starting with the trading records of the authors.

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How Good is Citron Research?

First, let me preface this article by saying Citron is extremely transparent with their picks, motives and agenda. They do not mince words and they go about their research in a very serious, albeit full of shit, manner.

The Godly folks over at iBankCoin took a looksy under the hood of the Citron Research automobile and found a lemon (pun intended!). We audited their results, going back over a two year time frame (aka the only time frame that is relevant for a professional investor) and matched suggested short sale prices with current quotes. Before I discuss the results, it’s very important that you understand the mantra of Citron. They are not looking for swing trades, at least not according to their long drawn out publications. They are alleging fraud, on a fucking grand scale. The type of shit that sends people to prison to wash underwear and catch ice picks in the neck. These guys highlight companies that are not only cooking the books (in their opinion), but fucking deep frying them in gasoline.

So, at a very minimum, being the well followed and respected source for short sale ideas that they are, I expected to see monster winners. Total wipe-outs, if I might be so bold.

Here are the results.

Bupkis.

Had you invested 10k every time Citron put out a report, over a two year time frame, your net loss would be a touch over 31%. Let me put this in layman’s terms for you: if this guy, or guys, were working for me and lost 31% for my investors, over a two year time frame, I’d slap him, or them, in the face with a hot slice of pizza, kick ’em down a flight of stairs lined with mustard, then toss down  severance packages (a bag of bricks). I am sure they did wonderful when the market was shitting the bed, in 2008-09. But who gives a shit? I’ve been banging out gains since LTCM went bust.

It gets better.

Within  the herd of short sellers, Citron has great sway over the pack. They are viewed as an organization with a voice—real go-getters, speaking on behalf of Joe Public, out to get those fucking rittle [sic] Chinese fuckers with funny accents. When Citron issues a report, the stock drops. As a matter of fact, despite the abysmal longer term track record (which is elegantly laid out for all to see), on the day they issued reports, the targeted companies stock prices dropped more than 90% of the time. Basically, trading ahead of a Citron report is equal to minting your own money, bullet proof. On the other hand, and I am not being cynical, Citron reports serve as excellent discount mechanisms for serious, longer term, longs. Essentially, betting against these fuckers is like having your very own gold mine in your backyard.

Remember kids, it’s  easy to accuse a company of being a fraud, but very hard to prove. However, I think it’s fair to say that I’ve proven, without a question, that Citron isn’t very good at what they do.

Grains of salt.

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