Save the credit crisis, global growth never stopped, umm, growing. Take the estimates at face value, since you have no choice, and there is no debating: this market is heading to 14,000. I know it makes no sense to you, especially since you have a dog’s brain. Consider this: the credit crisis never happened. It’s been erased from history and the scars are removed via plastic surgery. Companies are operating lean and banging out outrageous profits. The automobile industry is generating so much cash, F will be able to pay down all of its debt within a few years. The airlines are screaming higher, thanks to fattened margins.
I repeat: this is as good as it gets.
While there will be ups and downs, the trend is up. More importantly, the fundamentals are phenomenal. Ignore the naysayers; they are not money makers. It’s the people who risk it all that make the most. I am not advocating “risking it all,” since that is also a marvelous strategy towards insolvency. However, I am suggesting that you check the homofied fear at the door, else don’t play the game.
For the day, I enjoyed modest gains, thanks to MOS, AGU, EXK, ATPG and NGD. My year to date gains are small, about 4%. I’ve been washing out of stocks too quickly and unbalanced with my allocations. However, the year is young and I know exactly where to put my resources.
Top picks: NGD, AGU
and alot of the unemployment is the “chaff”, companies used the crisis to unload people that needed a good unloading, to some extent, and while many quality people probably lost their jobs, to some extent this new “leanness” is sustainable.
Umm. If you magically didn’t have ballooning deficits then you might have a point. It might be sustained for a good long while yet, but in the end, it is NOT SUSTAINABLE!! Silver is the investment of the coming decade.
Deficits and leaner company payrolls aren’t related…
They are to the extent that less payroll taxes are being collected, especially on the Social Security/Medicare side.
_______
Ok, sure, but govt deficits won’t ever force companies to hire the chaff back, so deficits can’t make the leanness go away…
Quit giving people a comfortable life in exchange for no work, and deficits will shrink, and chaff will be better motivated to not be chaff. They are related. People work harder when there is a line of motivated “hungry” people wanting their job. The increased productivity of lower quality social programs works toward a positive feedback loop for the whole population. Especailly when the tax money that is taken isn’t squandered in supporting a highly flawed disincentivist system.
no disagreement, in fact its the one political issue I feel strongly about.
However, my comment that deficits and the streamlining of corporate payrolls are not related stands. The federal gov’t running up a huge deficit will never cause companies to have to hire back people they let go, it just can’t. I am not saying it can’t cause problems, is good, makes everybody feel fuzzy inside, or anything else. Just observing that it doesn’t relate to lessened corporate payrolls and increased corporate employee productivity.
Macroeconomics. If governments had to charge less tax, it would make doing any kind of business in a lower tax area favorable. If businesses set up in these lower tax areas, selecting from a limited labor force, eventually you have to hire the idiots. I saw it in the Calgary oil and gas boom pre-crash. Service everywhere really really sucked. In fact, some fast food places closed down because they couldn’t hire anybody. Their competitors were willing to hire the chaff of all chaff, but kept their doors open. In 2007 in Calgary, EVERYBODY who wanted a job could easily go and get one. In that case it was less related to a taxes and deficits (though that was certainly an important component) and more related to commodity prices. But the effect (though less immediately pronounced) is similar.
Unfortunately, current policy is hardening that “chaff” into a permanent underclass, a la the “chavs” in Great Britain.
________
“In the sweet old country where I come from, Nobody ever works, Yeah nothing gets done; We hang fire, we hang fire.
You know marrying money is a full time job; I don’t need the aggravation; I’m a lazy slob…hang fire, we hang fire.”
Ironic lyrics coming from one of the hardest working guys in his field.
And an LSE MBA, to boot!
__________
Yes… and that is a HUGE risk to ongoing prosperity
I just ordered my Dow 20,000 hat, why stop at 14k?
For 2011?
Oh I have to keep it in 2011? OK, I agree with 14k. I thought we were just going on momentum regardless of calendar year.
the dow died at 14.5k thats resistance from “07”
When we get there the market will break through 14.5 like a hot knife in butter.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnPDpKEkbGY
Unlike this guy…
Not as insane as these two guys.
_____________
Looks exhilerating!
Kaiser the Dog agrees bobs his head in general agreement to the Fly/
Thanks for posting your picks. I just bought them all with maximum leverage. Keep ’em coming.
What, you didn’t mortgage the house and sell the wife too?
She’s lease only.
What’s the mileage allowance?
I was going to joke about chitty-chitty bang bang, putt putt, tailpipes, proper lube every 3000, driving in the canyon or on mountains, but to save time for me, I’ll let you string those together however you wish.
Woooo doggiesstyle. I be doin’ the kitty kitty gang bang wit mah Duesenberg 12. Dem Beverly Hills be shakin like a hound that done bit the lectric cord.
Wilt? Is that you? Remember this ass?
Number 8,033? No, too firm. Number 9,129? No, too skinny. Number 3,148?
Yes! 3,148! Oh thank you so much for that wonderful night!
You are starting to sound like Krull: http://www.youtube.com/user/THANOS43
Hes been saying this for months.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndpV6qfQJVw
He’s been trying to conquer the universe for a long time now. I haven’t trusted his investment advice since 1986.
YES! Vereeeee cool techno tunes for thee Club Fly. Happy time, happy market happy pet owl Minerva.
Once the corps start busting some of that cash off their books things could get rockin’ and rolling.
I miss that old cover illustration (for this post) as your avatar.
That shot says “all class.”
The latest one says “Angry Mime Dentist”
_______
As you feel this way, it may be time to alter the “I have seen the future and it has lower stock prices” slogan…
Aww man, I thought you meant 1,800 more S&P points to go.
@Fly, with these predictions (14k), shouldn’t you change your quotation, “I have seen the future…and it has lower stock prices in it”?
Just a thought…
It brings me good fortune
bullish, we need a 2 for 1 hat special, DOW 20,000 and might as well have DOW 3000 tossed in as well, that way we’ll have both and can swap from one to the other when the time comes.
You’ll never ever need a Dow 3000 hat, perhaps an S&P 3000 hat would be a good idea though.
Dow 3000 hat may be useful years from now once this bubble blows up that is currently being inflated. Can put it in mothballs for now.
What a bunch of ASSHATS!!!
Reminds me; I think we’re due for a 2011 Asshat of the week (if not a January Asshat).
Do the words irrational exuberance mean anything to you people?
I’ve just returned from the SuperBowl, where I saw and participated in all manner of unspeakable things, all at the behest of my corporate slushfund providers and at no expense to myself.
Unfortunately, while away my personal accounts have fallen into a murderhole of the southeast asian and emerging variety. All the while the US markets race away from my 401k which is sitting in all cash.
It’s amazing how wrong one can be at times…
Date and time DJI crosses 14,000?
October 17, 2011
at 9.52 in the AM.
Fly was the skinny kid with snot running down his face holding onto the teachers skirt at recess
You wanna waste my time? Okay. I call my lawyer. He’s the best lawyer in Miami. He’s such a good lawyer, that by tomorrow morning, you gonna be working in Alaska. So dress warm.
“was the skinny kid with snot running down his face holding onto the teachers skirt at recess” That’s defamation. Prepare to be sued. Probably by a magical lawyer with a portal to a distant galaxy. Which is even further than Alaska. So there cry baby.
Or take a deep breath. Hakuna Matata et cetera. You can’t sue someone for uncovering uncomfortable facts. Do well at an ethical business instead of betroubling a journalist. Or go fishing in your big powerboat and forget about your former business.
all fingers are pointing to corn demand (China increasing imports, poor production worldwide). The increase in corn price will make it a more valuable crop for farmers and therefore a related increase in fertilizer consumption (corn being one of the most difficult crops to grow, and largest in fertilizer usage).
In DAG, MOO, and would buy more MOS, AGU, POT etc. but already quite exposed.
Food inflation baby!
Well now that the world isn’t coming to an end just because some rinky-dink country just went under we can get back to business as usual. The thought of al-Qaeda taking control of the Suez danced in the heads of idiots…
Congratulations to the /CL speculators that bought the rip at $92.
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.
He had a way with words, didn’t he?
Yes – proof that the same old crap comes round and round again.
in what alternate universe are the airlines “ripping” ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcMCNucDzDQ
This one.
Operationally, they are minting coin.