First, let me preface this article by saying Citron is extremely transparent with their picks, motives and agenda. They do not mince words and they go about their research in a very serious, albeit full of shit, manner.
The Godly folks over at iBankCoin took a looksy under the hood of the Citron Research automobile and found a lemon (pun intended!). We audited their results, going back over a two year time frame (aka the only time frame that is relevant for a professional investor) and matched suggested short sale prices with current quotes. Before I discuss the results, it’s very important that you understand the mantra of Citron. They are not looking for swing trades, at least not according to their long drawn out publications. They are alleging fraud, on a fucking grand scale. The type of shit that sends people to prison to wash underwear and catch ice picks in the neck. These guys highlight companies that are not only cooking the books (in their opinion), but fucking deep frying them in gasoline.
So, at a very minimum, being the well followed and respected source for short sale ideas that they are, I expected to see monster winners. Total wipe-outs, if I might be so bold.
Here are the results.
Bupkis.
Had you invested 10k every time Citron put out a report, over a two year time frame, your net loss would be a touch over 31%. Let me put this in layman’s terms for you: if this guy, or guys, were working for me and lost 31% for my investors, over a two year time frame, I’d slap him, or them, in the face with a hot slice of pizza, kick ’em down a flight of stairs lined with mustard, then toss down severance packages (a bag of bricks). I am sure they did wonderful when the market was shitting the bed, in 2008-09. But who gives a shit? I’ve been banging out gains since LTCM went bust.
It gets better.
Within the herd of short sellers, Citron has great sway over the pack. They are viewed as an organization with a voice—real go-getters, speaking on behalf of Joe Public, out to get those fucking rittle [sic] Chinese fuckers with funny accents. When Citron issues a report, the stock drops. As a matter of fact, despite the abysmal longer term track record (which is elegantly laid out for all to see), on the day they issued reports, the targeted companies stock prices dropped more than 90% of the time. Basically, trading ahead of a Citron report is equal to minting your own money, bullet proof. On the other hand, and I am not being cynical, Citron reports serve as excellent discount mechanisms for serious, longer term, longs. Essentially, betting against these fuckers is like having your very own gold mine in your backyard.
Remember kids, it’s easy to accuse a company of being a fraud, but very hard to prove. However, I think it’s fair to say that I’ve proven, without a question, that Citron isn’t very good at what they do.
Grains of salt.
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Cintron!?!
LIAR
LOL
Good one..
Where is the Fly getting his numbers from? For instance on CHBT he has the suggested price at $14.46. 2 years hasn’t even passed yet and he’s 14.06 on the last price. Well here it is 6/7/11 CHBT at $3.87. The Fly is being very unfair to Citron in his calculations. They are way off base. Besides what stupid idiot is going to stay short for 2 years. You have to give credit where credit is do. Citron does their homework and I suggest that the Fly do the same.
Found this link – looking for some info on Citron. I think you need to give the guy his due 18mos later. There are many of those that are now zeros or effectively zeros. CCME, CVVT, CHBT. AMSC is down to 5. He nailed AMED, APOL and ARTC. The only name I remember him missing is WRLD though I can’t understand how regulators wont kill that predatory biz model. Can’t use a traditional investor’s time frame as he only writes on terminal shorts.
Hit the EDIT button!
FLY IS GOD
Man, the choice of music for the teams entrance is unbelievably crappy and cheesy.
C & C factory – are you ready for this?
WTF?!?!
Fat boy slim?
Am I missing something? It seems almost TOO egregious that a CCME s/s at $17.84 is calculated at a percentage loss while it is trading 4 bucks lower right now.
Citroën cars were ok in the day
From Makinggelt withsteve.com- Steelers by 14. Although Bart Starr and Paul Hornung along with their Coach Vince Lombardi are very good, it will be hard to beat the Steelers. Terry Bradshaw, Joe Greene (a fellow member of the tribe?), Roberto Clemente, Willie Stargell, Bill Mazerowski, and Franco Harris are tough.
You are velcome.
This post deserves a truckload of monster cans the lawn
god? full of shit
dude was up about 90% in 2008
Peter
Since they are suggesting shorts, anything with a negative percentage is a win. Conversely, any positive returns are losses.
I’m no fan of Citron, but it appears that they’re up 31 percent, not down 31 percent. Correct?
Hail the fly
John
So was I. What has he done lately?
Maybe they should spend their time researching quality companies that will grow rather than always looking for the bad apple in the bunch. Probably would be more fruitful.
Or they should do the opposite of what they suggest.
Neighbor Fly- I overheard Steve, Jr. and Fly,Jr. talking about how they want a wardrobe malfunction at halftime and how they intend to sell the pictures at school tomorrow. I will send Steve, Jr. to his room during halftime but told him that if this Green Pea Band plays Hava Nagila he could come out to listen. Steve, Jr. kept yelling abut how nicer his Uncle Fly is to Fly, Jr. I hope the Green Pea Band is as good as Harold Lipshitz and the Big Band was in the Catskills a few years ago when we went to that waterpark together.
Wrong. I manually adjusted the final tally. Idiots, take a closer look at the numbers before talking shit
WRLD has owned these fuckers.
I was looking at that too, check out the short interest over the last year. 4 million shorts getting ripped – I love seeing that shit. They don’t know when to say “mercy”. 24 days to cover.
there is very little in this world as pleasant and soul-warming as the pained, molested, agonized shrieks of short sellers burning. …
You have fun fucking shorts.
WRLD has fun fucking dumb poor people.
Lord knows there’s an endless supply of dumb poor people.
Long WRLD.
From reading the previous post, most of them must be cops & firemen.
Snicker out loud. SOL?
but WRLD is fucked once the loan pyramid is halted — good luck collecting your outstanding book from people who cant afford rent, dont have assets, and already gave up on their FICO score a long time ago
Wow.. great analysis Fly. The point of the story is that if you didn’t buy Citron’s service you would save the sub and 31% of your money. How’s that for a George Costanza ad.
Why don’t you fly taint licking sycophants take another look at the results minus WRLD. Who the fuck is going to short a $12 stock and not cover until $58.50? No one, that’s who.
The bottom line, citron made me a shit ton of cash the past two years. Do you have to be nimble and cut losers? Yes. Would I pay hundreds or even thousands to get this free service? Yes, yes I would. Because it has made me 10’s of thousands.
Great website Dan, very mavericky.
And if you listened to every long retard since 1999 you would be down 20% in the last 11 years.
Dan
That would make sense if they didn’t suggest doubling down in the wrld bet at $40+.
They are abominations. You want good ideas, read me.
Fly
You are the man when it comes to trading this casino. My hat is off to you.
I sold out at DOW 14k thanks to some warnings from contacts that I have way up the food chain in the credit markets.
I made a little money shorting stocks and gave a little back on the bounce. For the most part I have protected my capital.
As a son of a credit trader I am a major skeptic due to the influences of the way bond traders think. I refuse to partake in markets that I do not understand. The HFT’s have turned the market into a speed casino.
Please let me apologize in advance when I bust balls on here when it comes to trading stocks. I was trained by my father and his credit trader friends to focus “preservation of capital” versus “return on capital during times like these.
Nonetheless, I must say you are REALLY good at what you do. Cheers
Edge
Edge
I listened to myself and I am up over 10 fold, in one year
Fly, I believe you forgot about IOC.
Yes, of course you can make money following these folks. its rackeet. Thats why it is free. Doesnt take much to figure it out.
Look at the idiots and fools who were scared out of CCME, or even better, the ones who shorted it @ 11.00. idiots and fools in that order.
This “free” things play on the basic emotions. FEAR, GREAD, and the self rightous people who think the are smart enough to figure shit out. These are the hatres who hope and believe its true, I slap them with my good arm.
I dont play with fire, at the same time, I have learned to eat people’s lunch and get rich off their liquidations.
IOC is wanna of my favorites ans the CCME was lots of fun.
I must thank these citron people. The are risking going to jail just to make me money. Thank you kindly.
Regards
chuck
“idiots and fools in that order”
congratulashayla
Chuck bought a large amount of calls and stock on the ccme dip. I believe he sold naked puts too.
Thanks Citron.
I hear ya Fly
THe problem I have is I consistently hear how gruesome it is behind the scenes. I am sure you here the same shit. I just can’t buy companies that I know are likely insolvent.
I think the next big money maker will be short stocks, treasuries, and the dollar when we near the ending of QE2 in June.
This is when I will put money to work. The Fed is fucked IMO. Try a QE3 and the currency collapses. If they stop QE2 in June then bond yields soar and stocks tank.
The easier money will be made on the downside in the 2nd half of the year IMO.
Indeed I did. Naked like a new born baby.
Then, again if you didnt show me what these kids were up too, I would have missed it @ 11.07.
When I saw Hank Greenberg’s name, I thought it was time to eat a BITCHE’S lunch.
I must thank the Fly and Citron for making my week.
regards
chuck
OEW is on the same “track” as C n’ W looking for resolution:
“Support is at the 1303 and 1291 pivots, with short term support around 1300. Uptrend support is at the OEW 1261 pivot. A break of this pivot would likely confirm a downtrend. Overhead resistance is at the current 1311 high and the OEW 1313 pivot range. A breakout above this pivot will likely lead to a rally to the next pivot at SPX 1363. Therefore, there is a lot at stake with the near term market action over the coming days and weeks.”
In case you hadn’t noticed, the range for the 1313 pivot (1306-1320) has broken out to the upside and 1363 is the next resistance point if this wave can continue from here … I may be changing my gravatar shortly! Despite being bearish, I have been buying the last few days as some may have noticed … TTI, QLGC and the last few days SONC and OGXPY.
Hey Teahouse,
What’s your quick thesis on SONC?
I’m in it for a swing … I see it as a nice takeout for PE investors … if the potential bear flag breaks below the 100/200 dma then I will stop out manually.
thanks!
Real Time with Bill Maher had an interesting show this week revisiting the housing meltdown:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzrBurlJUNk
Conclusion: Wall Street just caught Bush’s pass and ran with it …. so did Freddy & Fanny, cause they wanted a piece of the action (bonuses & greed) too …
http://www.americandreamdownpaymentassistance.com/whsp12162003.cfm
Bush? Really?
________
Really!
http://www.americandreamdownpaymentassistance.com/white_house_docs.cfm
Gimme a break, easy home ownership has been a government staple since before the FIRST Great Depression.
All the Congress and President’s jaw-boning put together did not do the damage that the tacit “anything goes” government back-stop from Fan and Fred did to that market.
______
George W “A chicken in every pot and home for every family” Bush …
Yeah, let’s get into another one of those arguments about which burglar (politician) is worse. Would U rather have Bush and lobbyist friends steal your money? Or Clinton and his lobbyist friends? Which Congress folks *of which party) would U rather have steal your money? The idea of the great superiority of one robber over another is sure to spark discussion.
But what about the fact that we are being “divided and conquered” –since no one can talk about solving our national problems without having their solution assigned to one of the 2 major political parties, and then denigrated by lovers of the other party?
Divide and Conquer works incredibly well as a strategy for thievery. It is also called “Let’s you and him fight while I make off with both of your wallets.”
Don’t bullshit about divide and conquer. There’s only one party dedictate to hard socialism, so it has to be defeated FIRST. Step one, as it were.
Then you move onto the party that’s filled with corrupt soft-socialists, and you root those fuckers (George Voinivich, I’m coming for you, SOB) out by means of the primary.
But let’s not quibble, it’ll be an uphill battle because most of the sheeple dig their nanny state perqs, and don’t mind someone else paying for the free lunch. To think, however, that you are going to start a ‘third party movement” and wash all the scum out, is dreamworld scenario-izing, and will lead only to Nancy Pelosi back with the gavel in her hand.
Make no mistake, there are NO Dems that want to roll back governmental control of your life and livelihood. None — not even the alleged “blue dogs.”
________
And very very few Republicans act to cause less control or spending by government either, although they love to talk about it. The government does NOT shrink or the deficit go down when Repubs are in charge. They just like to control people in different areas, although some areas are the same for both parties, since some of the same lobbyists have bought both.
The fantasy that Republicans are Libertarians in actions (rather than just in words) is a fantasy shared by many and there are plenty of propaganda words out there trying to convince people of this. But there is nothing real about it. Congress people of both parties are bought and paid for by lobbyists. The lobbyists have bought the right to steal the public’s wallets. What is good for the general population is of no concern to the vast majority of Congress folks.
or the entities doing the lobbying … Ag, Defense, etc, etc ….
I tend to agree with you. However, that is starting to change. People like Paul Ryan are at least talking the proper talk, and bringing the proper legislation forward.
Let’s see how long this lasts before we completely discard it. There really is no other alternative, rather than a slow turning.
Anything else invites revolution.
_____
How many republicans voted for obamacare?
Bill Maher– good source.
Edge
Short term trading is just digits and letters
“Edge
Short term trading is just digits and letters”
Yup, and I am smart enough to realize that I can’t hang trading in this environment. I’ll wait for fundementals. They always eventually come back. I think many of the HFT’s are now losing money because the market trades like its bi-polar.
I think many of the algos are going to go by the wayside based on the poor trading results from the big investment banks.
Patience is a virtue.
What the flying fuck.
AOL buys Huffington Post for $315 million
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/07/us-aol-thehuffingtonpost-idUSTRE7160RR20110207
Gents start your engines. The stock market boom has hardly begun.
Yeah, I would love to know where that valuation came from. Seemingly nutty as a small pile of squirrel excreta.
________
the value of the internet continues to confound businesses.
what is the value of a web page hit? of someone using a free email service?
at least this won’t be quite as bad as the buyout of bluemountain.com
Technically a web page hit represents cost, because it is a cost of traffic which must be paid out to the provider. Visits, hits, etc. are only meaningful in the context of how much business they bring. If the resource is ad-supported, then the value is ad-generation in hard $$ discounted to present terms. It’s that simple.
Just checked the valuation… over 10x revenues (revenues!) on an ad-supported site.
By that determination, iBanqueCoyne is worth half a bill, easy.
_______
When Ibc gets enough traffic here to read intelligent political commentary, someone will make Fly an offer “that he can’t refuse”. Which is part of the reason that Fly really appreciates your intelligent political commentary.
bot EK
How’s that ccme today?
Come on BORN…started out in the right direction. CCME down off it’s highs too. Something going on that don’t smell right.
How droll all this talk about percentages and lemons. Tennis anyone?
I pickled off some of my MOTR this morning, earnings tomorrow. Big jump a day before earnings, is Uncle Carl at work?
Is there any chance that MOTR disappoints?
Fly
GMXR offering priced @4.75 looks like good entry. Company owns hellish acreage in the shell game
Are you Rumpelstiltskin’s trader brother?
_______
Citron would have been sued out of existence already if the research was innacurate. They throw shit and it sticks to the wall for a while, then it falls off.
WTF, did they make or lose 31,15%?!
Who cares about what it made all that really matters is how your holdings are doing.
That’s right, who cares what their track record is . . . Citron Reasearch made me a pile of money after they came out with their bogus three-part reasearch publication on WRLD. Since I had already been long on WRLD for years and had done my own reasearch way before Citron had ever even heard of WRLD, when WRLD dropped after their publication, I literlly backed the truck up and went long on all that I coud afford . . . long story short, I sold the entire position over the last two weeks. You do the math. I’m happy, the IRS is happy.
I hoping that Citron bashes another great company so I can take another no-brainer long position. Hay Citron, why not take another shot at WRLD? The stock is already in the stratosphere hitting new 52-week highs almost every other day.. You never know, it may not take much to knock it down from here.
This chart analysis is wrong. They are tracking the closing stock price on the day that the Citron report comes out rather than the open price.
For example, on 1/24, WHX opened at $21.87. But, this report cites $16.67 as the start price which is the close price of that day. Citron is not getting credit for the massive drop that happened on the day of their report!
Same thing with GNI.
I think you should correct that table and republish it for all to see.
pretty much the shittiest piece of research I’ve seen, Don’t now what 2 year time period you’re looking at as you’ve got CCME listed at a wrong price, its basically trading at a 1 and change now
heres another more honest take
http://seekingalpha.com/article/251981-a-comprehensive-scorecard-for-citron-research
Yeah this is terrible piece. As someone pointed out above you can’t use the end of day price on the day they recommended the position. Have to use the day before close if you are trying to capture their actual performance. You certainly can’t penalize them for the stock getting crushed the day they issue the report.
Also how’s that CCME, CHBT, CVVT, BORN, SEED, LPHI, SCOK doing for ya?
Appreciate the good writeup. It in fact would be a amusement accounts it. Look advanced to far additional agreeable of your stuff! Incidentally, exactly how could all of us communicate?