2012 will be the year to “pay the piper.” All of the drama of 2011 will be resolved in 2012. The year will start off with a bang, with indices spiraling lower amidst renewed panic of imminent european bank runs. This contagion will spread to latin america, asia and finally the United States. For the year, I expect the S&P to drop by a staggering 50%, marked by bankruptcies in almost every industry known to mankind. There will be panic and most certainly pain. Most of you will not make it out of 2012, as the market gobbles your portfolios whole. Nevertheless, you will continue to read iBankCoin, as it is your duty to do so.
Here are some more specific predictions.
- BAC will file bankruptcy
- Most large European banks will collapse, alongside the fucking euro.
- Bank runs will become all the rage in Europe.
- Nigel Farage will be raised to legendary status.
- Obama will in fact WIN a 2nd term.
- Mergers and acquisition with the software sector will remain prolific.
- The first half of 2012 will be mired with an astounding 35% loss in the S&P 500.
- The market will stabilize during the summer months, post collapse. However, renewed panic will present itself in the fall.
- US GDP will barely stay above 1%
- Unemployment will be in the 8-9% range.
- Europe will be in depression.
- Chinese GDP will fall to 6%
- Indian GDP will fall to 4%, pushing its currency to new lows.
- QE3 will be enacted in early 2012. The initial response will be positive, then fade.
- TLT will trade north of $200.
- In late 2012, signs of a Japanese debt crisis will emerge.
- The European Union will collapse, alongside the euro.
- Multiple EU countries will be considered insolvent.
- The VIX will trade up to $100.
- FAZ will zoom.
- Venture Capitalist will suffer their worst year in a long time, mired by negative publicity regarding the mispricing of IPO’s and the second dot com bust.
- Social networking companies will be viewed as a value, post collapse.
- Facebook will withdraw its IPO.
- “The Fly” will positively nail the 2012 Armageddon trade with space alien magician precision.
- The dollar will soar, as well as the Yen.
- The United States will begin armed conflicts in both Syria and Iran.
- Oil will fall to $60
- Gold will fall to $1,200, then soar to $2,100
- Silver will fall to $15, then double to $30
The world will not end but it will suck.
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yay
And ibankcoin will merge with zerohedge and slopeofhope because their prognostications will all be the same.
so FLY will sell GSVC NOW?!!!!
Wow, thats quite bold sir Fly.
If Obama is re-elected then 2012 will go down as the year America killed herself.
Hard to see if all that bad shit happens how Obama could be re-elected.
Maybe if he had his new EPA Stormtroopers*
kidnap everyone’s first born or something…
___________________
(what’s that? Oh… that’s right… you haven’t seen MY 2012 predictions yet!)
___________
With Romney (aka Obama Lite) as the establishment’s choice, it’s easy to see how that could happen.
Oh my. I thought I looked on the dark side.
the darkside always beckons…
I think 2012 will be much more boring. No major collapses, the Keynsians will save our butts. BAC will move on up to the $12-15 range. Most of Europe will carry on. Growth will be slow, and Obama will lose to Romney. The outlook for 2013 (at the end of 2012) will be quite rosy!
Keynesians have never saved anyone- just prolonged the death and suffering
Somehow, I kinda think the Fly is not even believing his own bullshit. He’s not a -0- hedge kind of guy.
may I ask why Le Fly himself is long 75%, instead of 75% short if
“The year will start off with a bang, with indices spiraling lower amidst renewed panic of imminent european bank runs. ”
??
maybe FLY is hedging himself, just like Nouriel Roubini.
The new year hasn’t started yet – duh
Damn, I have you give you my Bear suit that Bernie C. just gave me!
I am not liking these predictions. Especially the one about the wars. I’ld take gold/silver at 1200/15 and keep them there, if it meant keeping us out of any more wars.
Is there any room for bargaining here?
Unfortunately, only the Obama prediction will be correct.
Right, cause there’s no way he wins if the world is circling the terlet.
_____
right on. thats why I think SHTF after election. in the meantime some vol, some good eco numbers then POW right in the kisser!
“terlet” lost my marbles here…
No, in this world of Ultra-Corrupt politics that we live in, no President gets tossed out before his 8-years – they control too many purse strings.
Jake,
You sound like me before the 2004 presidential race. I thought there was no way Bush could get elected again. I thought there was no way Americans could be that dumb. Take a step back and look at it with no bias.
Fly, how come “the United States will begin armed conflicts in both Syria and Iran” goes together with “Oil will fall to $60” and “In late 2012 , signs of a Japanese debt crisis will emerge” with “The dollar will soar, as well as the Yen”!? Of course you can predict conflicting outcomes, but then it’s cheating, not predicting, imo. And, why would you expect corporate bankruptcies with record high cash levels on their balance sheets?
On a side note, watching “Extreme Survival” on Discovery while consuming white wine is so 2012.
Bravos. I like.
Volatility will be the king. Will trade straightly based on breadth indicators. Not listening to any mother fucking stock gurus, except the Fly. Heha.
Interesting, Doug Kass thinks we will break the all time high in the S&P in 2012.
‘thinks’ wrong choice of word 🙂
+1
The fact that anyone would give such a bearish outlook credence is enough to get me to lower my net to 50%. I think the play is wait for XLF around 11 then sell 10% out of money puts on everything you want to own 6 months out.
Now I am bummed out- that be the opposite of groovy for you young uns.
I told my wife there will be no New Years Eve at our house as I will be first in line on 1/3/12 at the banks to withdraw and close everything.
And to Trading Pymph I ask if you had a name change as well as, shall we say, an operation?
Fantastic Fly shit. Maybe Obama is right.
And I thought love was only true in fairy tales…I’am a BELIEVER!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfuBREMXxts
Quint, Sadly you and Fly will be correcton Obama. Joe Biden will be kicked to the curb only to be replaced by Hillary Clinton. The GOP have few real picks. A far as the market? I think some energy plays are bottoming, like coal and oil services. See you inside the PPT. Happy New Year
Holy Shit. The Fly puts Nostradamus to shame.
Not bad, not bad. I’m more in agreement with this set than previous years’ predictions. (And yes, I’ve got my friggin top hat on, awready.)
What the cock is this shit?
Any chance you listened to Michael Ruppert on the Joe Rogans podcast yesterday?
I believe your predictions are much too dire! How did your predictions from last year pan out? Is it possible to repost your predictions from last year?
All of my predictions are on the right hand side, marked 2011 predictions
Go big or go home!
I can’t imagine the yields we’d see if TLT hit $200.
30 year sub 2%?
I have one word to describe this: LOVELY 🙂
Guys
It’s all fun and games, until the S&P is 500.
Don’t take my predictions too seriously
S&P is 500 lol, just kidding …
666 is a nicer number though
How many of these predictions will Cramer use tomorrow?
Seriously, tonight’s healthy eating monolog sounds too familiar to The Fly’s blog from yesterday afternoon.
Look at the number of views, 1386 already. Everybody and his brother must have been waiting for the Fly’s predictions.
Too cool. Rock on, Fly.
Wow, every time I refresh it goes up by 200.
Be careful about posting any personal info around here anymore. Way too many people reading these days.
Good for the Fly, but bad if YOU are on the run or hiding out, if you know what I mean. 🙂
I predict that all the bloggers are all wrong in their depressive outlooks for next year, and that some kind of miraculous recovery occurs.
Then the Fly will proclaim a party to out do all parties, where we gather to drink champagne, and the bloggers, jumping up and down, tear up thier papers and throw them in the air, like confetti.
Kind of like when you are in a boat out in the middle of the sea with a huge swell coming your way, thinking it’s all over for you. Everyone gives each other hugs and that look, and then whallahhh, the swell dies away just in the nick of time. Happy times, only better, because once faced with sure calamity, you are never the same again.
Try voila instead of whallahhh
lol, I will. Voila.
And lastly, Le Fly reveals his true identity as Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital
I was just coming on here to say that.
April Fools’?
But Fly, what about Canada…. it’s different up here!!!
don’t tell anyone.. shhh
yeah thats it .. yeah its different. Canada will become a wasteland with USD strength
Fly is brandishing a fucking meat clever tonight. Everyone start hoarding Dubra and PBR by the case as well as leaves for toilet paper.
Joe, nobody drinks PBR anymore. Hello.
LOL
try living in portland for a while and tell me no one drinks PBR
Where I come from, way up north on the border of Canada, but on the other side of Portland, we used to drink Old Milwaukee.
I can’t stand anything other than dark beer now, but those were really good times, for sure.
You aren’t kidding. I visited my friend there and that’s pretty much all they drank. It wasn’t bad!
Thank you for that last sentence.
Well, I’ve been hanging out here waiting for JakeGint to put his predictions up, but he is like three hours late.
Jake, you’re fired!
I suspect he is at the Georgetown-UL BB game.
Back to the General Tso’s chicken I made for dinner.
Okay, that would explain it. A pass then.
Jake is late because he’s busy counting his gold coins.
Jake should have only one prediction. How high or low Gold will go.
Hahaha, only one prediction. hahahaha
He is going to predict that Obama is not re-elected.
And maybe that the Packers eff up, somehow.
Care to make a wager?
He should be posting soon.
I believe I saw him on ESPN 2 leave with .22 left in the game.
He was eating extra crispy.
Eating an extra crispy. Too funny!
not to be a dick… but BAC cannot file BK
Neither “could”
GM, Lehman, WM, PGE, Enron, Texaco, WCOM, Chrysler, HJ Heinz, Henry Ford, Walt Disney, Atari, Mike Tyson, Johnny Unitas, President Grant & Mckinley, Larry King, Gary Coleman, US/Delta/Braniff/Frontier/NWAC/ Continental/Eastern/TWA/SwissAir/ Pan Am, Bethleham Steel, Montg Wards, Kmart,Zenith, Western Union, Casinos, Rolls Royce, Drexel Burnham, Bugatti, Barrings Bank, Woolworth, Caldor, LTCM, Hechinger, Polaroid, Rover, Refco,Blockbuster, Ritz Camera, Campagnia Dei Bardi (i think these fuckers owned Italy in the 1300s)…
They all found a way to go BK.
You forgot Donald Trump.
nice list.
Oil can’t fall o 60… OPEC won’t allow that… The social unrest would be insane… Otherwise a soilid list… The Facebook prediction is very bold
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnzB9uX3-Xk
I predict by 2013, this song will still be stuck in my head. Wish I never saw the movie “Drive”, because of it!
But, it was interesting to see that albert brooks wasn’t dead , or 400 pounds, or 400 pounds and dead.
That was a cool song, albeit a bit on the dark side.
Get this one stuck in your head instead. Much happier. I think.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvBNWrI40uo&feature=relmfu
And here is the Kim Jong Un speech at his old man’s funeral today.
English translation is provided.
http://youtu.be/C1haw94WpvU
Here’s a wacky 2012 prediction:
Jake will say something that Fly can no longer tolerate and Jake will then unexpectedly announce that…due to family obligations…he no longer has time to commit to writing a blog…and, will subsequently…quietly ride off into the sunset.
Oh…did I mention?
Today…I “McNibbled” …on some “Mc NUGT!!!”
—
…been a “miner” for a Heart Of Gold…
Hmmm…this prediction just may happen yet.
I think we pay the piper in the fall. Eurozone knows if the GOP wins it lights out for any aid via Fed. Therefore 0Bama will get his second term as they (collective) will do everything in their power to get 0Bama elected and have steady but improving numbers. After that, what The Fly said.
Unless it’s Dr. Paul that wins, the same old same old will continue with the FED. There is no difference in either party’s platform regarding the dollar.
I have my top hat on and am dressed to the nines preparing to read the mighty prognostications. All ibankcoin bloggers predict armageddon in 2012, yet they are all net long? This is busch league blogging trying to get more clicks. I am rather disappointed.
These predictions are very similar in tone to the 2009 predictions. 2009 started off like hammered dog shit but turned out quite nice. Here’s to more of the same.
Le Fly’s preditcttions this year have been,well how do you say? Awful..you remember WNR?
But he is highly entertaining..what more can America ask for from th Internet?
His projections for next year, are very entertaining. Just don’t put any money on this. I’m sure Fly will be all in cash for the next while…as I will be!
I predict that 0bama will get the race war he has been itching for all along.
Yikes, I really hope you are wrong. If it came down to it, I hope it is a war against the government and not against each other.
We, the people, would all lose. They (the government) have already put the acts in motion that would guarentee they win. “The Patriot Act”, “The Indefinite Detention Act”, and probably others I don’t know of right now.
And here are my predictions:
– MLB opens up ball/strike calls to replay challenge
– Complaining falls out of favor
– Starbucks limits latte customization
– Weasel most popular pet
– Pluto re-declared planet
– donuts declared anti-oxidant
– sun implodes, slowing global warming
As far as the economic/market predictions go, I’ll just look for moves away from floors and ceilings instead.
I like those…although the MLB one is a real stretch.
Serious question: Is it even possible for the Vix to trade above 100? Would people seriously be willing to pay that high of a premium on put protection? I thought 100 was the max it could get to.
you serious? VIX is a product of implied movements of the underlying asset….. you can easily price it over 100%. I’m a natural gas vol trader who used to deal with 90% implied vol every year during hurricane season…. equity vol guys are pussies.
I have a hard time telling when Fly is sarcastic or not. Sometimes he calls for gorilla-rallies and makes fun of Zero Hedge doomsayers…other times he makes posts like these. Which is it?
Oh he is always serious…so go build your bomb shelter now…I’ve got a few cases of Tom Ridge ducttape if you’d like to buy any.
And don’t forget about the Mayans…he didn’t even mention them.
Bonjourno from Napa. Although the loCal populace responds to vain vanilla stimula like a proctologist’s patient, the outstanding arcitecture reminds me America is older than the 2012 hype.
As for Fly’s predictions, the middle east connection and crude barrel issues is the “reasoning”, in addition to the prose, that makes Ibc a fine place to shed cigar ashes.
Just don’t forget (when you reply to BRA’s outstanding commentary, 2020 President) LeFly has assured my position of as Sec. of the Mint.
I think my ill-timed purchase of 25 January SPY puts last week may soon turn in my favor. Look for Greece and China to implode before the end of this week.
sure, everything is gonna do sweet shit, except for oil.
what did oil do to you?
Obama will win? Please say it ain’t so
Nymph’s Prediction..All of 2012 we will be following elections, trying to guess who will win..be it Taiwan, Mexico, Russia (well no surprise there), USA, France, Greece, etc..and how the Hand off of the new leaders in China will go in Oct 2012. Such unknown factors just continue to scare the market as my bubble continues to pop.
China GDP at 6% in the first half is pretty mainstream forecast. One of the big four banks in Australia, Westpac Bank, Bill Evans has this in his forecast.
http://www.westpac.com.au/economic-update/
He is saying it will pick up in the second half of 2012 but I think there is not enough capital to go around for more than the 6%
You are kidding guys!
By the way I have FREE STOCK robot if anybody looking for…
here is it
At least I’ll still be employed cleaning the urinal screens.
obama has 1.2 billion to spend…
Why is DECK gapping down $2 when the futures are green?
I am not seeing any news. Sell on open orders?
I can’t wait for the Russian civil war to start…that’s my prediction.
DECK IS GETTING DECKED
Why don’t the 2011 predictions show up in the archive listing?
They are there, right at the top of the list.
Actually Fly’s macro predictions for 2011 were quite good…his market predictions were not, considering we are flat for the year.
SDT will be the oil stock to own in 2012…
That was insider trading on DECK no b.s.
These are the best predictions (for 2011)
that I ever saw:
go2mars says:
January 2, 2011 at 12:31 am
TSLA will hit $50
I’ll sire another child
Silver above $40
Gold above $1800
Another big Earthquake and Tsunami somewhere more economically important
Katla eruption shuts down European air travel
Global Warming starts to be pushed less in the media as cooling trends cause the big boys to stop pushing it
FLY’s personal aggressive accounts hit $20M
Oil above $150
US Natural Gas prices stay very low
The announcement of at least 1 large natural gas to liquids plant in the US (Natty to diesel)
I buy shares in whoever does it.
SpaceX IPO
US Social unrest begins to become a big problem.
Canada does what the private citizens who own the IMF tell them to (ramps up reckless spending)
Another assasination attempt on my hero Nigel Farage
EU politics and unrest get a lot more messy, European stocks suffer accordingly.
I predict whatever markups happen today will reverse tomorrow.
Yet the media will declare the market was up 4% for the year since they only want to hype the Dow to John Q public, even though most other major averages will be down for the year.
Part of the Big O plan of “nothing wrong here, keep moving along” for 2012.
my predictions are about as effective as my resolutions for the new year. one major exception from above. Rick Santorum will rise above the BS and truely breakout as a real candidate without the Washington baggage the leading conteders have. He also has a Kennedy look and a nice smile. I believe in his conservative record and i love the concept for medical savings accounts to free us all from the bondage of the insurance companies and obamacare which will finish off the quality of medical care in this country if is is not repealed. Happy New Year.
http://medicalworldmadness.blogspot.com/2011/12/medicine-heal-thyself.html
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