In the Event We Don’t Die
The hardest part about being wrong is compounding errors with more errors. For example: I’ve been long and wrong over the past two weeks, wiping out all of my YTD gains. I could very easily hit the reset button by selling it all, in an attempt to salvage my year through precision picks. However, I run the risk of missing out on the biggest and baddest rally the world has ever seen.
Like it or not, the Europeans will eventually print euros. When they announce this plan, the market will soar by at least 400 on day one, then another 600 over the next two weeks. By selling out at the lows, stopping the bleeding, I may sink my ship by missing out on the wondrous one day snap back rally for the ages. This is why we haven’t seen a 2008 flush out yet, despite the horrific news.
When we do rally, I expect everything to trade higher, especially gold and silver. Whatever QE deal is announced, it will be viewed as inflationary, which in turn will bolster the euro and sink the dollar. Gold and Silver are the best barometers of risk and currency diversification in the world. Secondly, I know commodity related stocks will rip tits and the banks will offer insufferable short squeezes for the bears.
It will be a joyous occasion, as Wall Street celebrates the splendour of equities, while drinking copious amounts of spiked eggnog.
Over the weekend, there have been encouraging tidbits of news coming out of Europe, with regards to the creation of a Euro Stability Union and Federal Reserve bailout of Europe. Remember, it is the job of the ECB to promote price stability. If prices are dropping precipitously, as the olde continent drifts into deflation, the ECB must act to bolster prices. It is not a question of if they will do this, but when.
In other news, Black Friday sales came in well ahead of estimates at +6.6%. More impressive were online sales +26%, with amazing results coming out of AMZN. 2010 online sales were +9%. In a normal environment, this sort of news would serve as a jump off point for much, much higher retail stock prices.
117 Responses to In the Event We Don’t Die
Nothing has been fixed…
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yet
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Trying to fix this with a bailout is like trying to fix the burst sewer line of your house with duck tape. Even if works it isn’t going to work for long.
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Burst sewer lines, my speciality.
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The saner more logical Fly is back!
Right now too many bears blathering about…
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FED about to stimulate a third round buying mortgage bonds?…
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Everyone is so Bullish
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are you serious everyone has been wanting to jump off a bridge the last 2 weeks
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LOL. Apparently you didn’t read the previous post and comments.
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WHO IS?!
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Can’t find a bull to save my life..what you smoking robo?
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“…which in turn will bolster the euro and sink the dollar.”
If the ECB prints, won’t the euro fall? Larger money supply = currency depreciation.
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It “should ” fall in a logical world. But this would mean the Euro lives. Therefore, it will trade up. Look what happened the last dozen times Europe announced a bailout.
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Good point.
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Those short the EUR would cover sending it higher.
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I would not cover. More likely people would buy expected shorts to cover…
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everybody prints until debt is wiped off the books and currency ratios go to 1
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Very well said, Fly. We would have been flushed out by now had things been beyond repair. It really, really must suck being a bear. Tried it out myself for a couple of weeks, and have to say, it wasn’t the best outfit I’ve ever tried.
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Maybe you wearing it inside out.
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I guess it depends on when you wear that suit. October was not a good month for Bear suits. Last week was very good. I am not quick enough at changing suits, so I end up in cash most of the time lately.
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Cash= good call
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The best way to make money in the current environment is not to be a “bull” or a “bear” but take advantage of technical setups both on the long and short side. Be nimble and be quick but do not be stubborn. You can make a lot of money with this attitude.
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I couldn’t disagree more. It’s those who have been stubborn that have made money since August. The trend, whether up or down, has consistently reversed. If you’ve been changing your mind in the name of “not being stubborn,” you’ve likely lost money buying at tops and selling out at lows. Bulls and bears alike have had multiple chances at profits since August–it’s the pigs that have consistently been slaughtered.
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Pedro
4 weeks ago the market soared 1,300 points. If you were short, you were wiped out
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And if you were stubborn and held all the way through, you made most of your money back during this stretch of 7 consecutive down days.
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Only if you could have forseen these 7 days after being in dungeon for entire October.
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“However, I run the risk of missing out on the biggest and baddest rally the world has ever seen.”
We had one of those already. From October 4th to the 27th we had that huge rally.
Disclaimer: I dont invest anymore. I just read Fly’s blog.
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I am 100% serious when I say that I believe Confederate currency (as art) is a far safer store of money than either the US dollar or the Euro in the coming years.
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well if the s&p wont drop under 1000 in the next 6 months that will be a hell of surprise considering how many poor people there are in the world. (closed my TZA position on friday and bot some google for disclosure but that’s because we were too over sold and i dont want to see the weekly chart gap closed if it does that very bad for the bears)
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GOOG has been upgraded to Buy for tomorrow at Citigroup fyi.
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IMF bailout in the works. See iBC News.
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Hope is not a risk management process and relying on the eurozone leaders to do the right thing is definitely something I want to avoid. As of now, it’s a coinflip in my opinion as to whether or not this will get resolved. If it doesn’t, S&P500 could go to the 950 range. If it does, I see S&P 1350.
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Fly they are talking shit about you over at market ticker.
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THIS is exactly what I was referring to when I made my “Zero Edge” post the other day. All of these morons would rather adhere to their ideology, even if it’s at the sake of banking coin.
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Here’s the link if anyone’s interested:
http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?post=198140
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Lol if you’re going to type * that many times, why not just write “fuck”
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god,what jealousy.
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I think it might be an auto-censor function of the message board.
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You know, Nymph and my sidekick the US Dollar really hate the end of the month. In the last few days of the month, many of the major Oil Companies make payments to the Canadian Govt which helps the Loonie. Also, The Bank of England has to make a monthly payment to the ECB, which spikes up the Euro..On top of all that, I have to deal with passive F/X Funds rebalancing which is also normally good for the Euro. Yes, IMF..German/French Love Feast gossip all around..so we could get just another short squeeze leading into the central bank meetins ala July 2011, Oct 2011..etc. But, bottomline, we are now on a downtrend so I just have to sit and wait thru all of this silliness…oh well, maybe one day I can get a better handle on short term silly. In the meantime that stupid Oct Rally pop is almost all gone..come on 1120
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Isn’t the obvious F U trade for things to sell off after/if the Germans allow the ECB to print?
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“Today we light the first candle of the Advent wreath. This is the candle of HOPE.”
We will not crash during Advent – like, lets INVENT a rally
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treu dat
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It is the season of HOPE – I believe, I believe,…
“Dealers See Fed Buying $545 Billion Mortgage Bonds in Third Ease”
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-27/dealers-see-fed-buying-545-billion-mortgage-bonds-in-third-ease.html
Poof. Your horseshit bear market is gone.
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love it terrible when people want the world to end so they can make a little money
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Gameover for the bears again
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already counting chickens, senor T?
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STUPENDOUS … Too bad you banned VegasII, I shall miss his commiserating once again.
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I do wonder how close Vegas II came to recouping all of “his money.”
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I told him to book his recent gains last week before they disappeared but he wanted the whole enchilada … too bad.
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And voila, we are up 18 handles.
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DJI to 200
Nasdaq 5000
Here we come.
Rofl here we go again. Good times ahead….Again, at least for X amount of days/weeks.
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Another Fly Bottom…the good news is you did not capitulate and remained long. Even if you gave back YTD gains, you’re well positioned for the snapper and are still outperforming the averages. Well done Sir.
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Ironically, I sold SSO on Friday when the black friday rally didn’t last
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Poof! Your bullshit selloff is gone.
TZA to the single digits.
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I’m cheering, too. But won’t the IMF force Italy to sell Gold?
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Futures wayyy higher. Gap and go until end of year. Shorts are about to get squeeeeezed.
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I do not understand the logic of not selling because you might missed out a rally?. How about not selling and enjoying a sell off?. The problem I see with this logic is that the rally can come 1000 pts below current levels (it might start tomorrow but we simply do not know). With my money I am sitting in cash and I do not care in missing out the initial rally, I rather chase the second half (the next 600 pts you are talking about).
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I am not so sure that silver and gold under a Bail out scenario will continue higher. If risk trade is back then gold and silver could be sold to chase other assets. Also there is the potential of physical gold being sold by the trouble countries to back the bonds
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… while most here were goin’ all chicken little and shit Friday and ALL weekend … as I posted repeatedly … I was “caressing” me some TNA with both hands on Friday !!! fwiw
Of course, I am hedged (SHORT) a bit with some TYP !!!
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We shall see !!!
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Alf, what’s your % return for the year?
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~ +14% !!!
(as of last Friday 11/25/2011) fwiw
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… to be perfectly clear :
I have been SHORT for a while (since early Oct.) !
I was SHORT during the Oct/Nov “UP move” … and remained SHORT throughout !
Did it suck ?
Yes … definitely !
Did I make a complete mess of that trade ?
Yes … definitely !
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However, that said … I stuck with the SHORT (averaged some along the way) and finally was rewarded with a chance to raise CASH (@ near B/E) ! That is to say … I started covering my SHORT last Wed. … and again on Fri. !
With the CASH … I started scaling in LONG some TNA !!!
I am still holding some TYP (ie. SHORT) exposure as a HEDGE !
AND … I got CASH !
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Uhhh … can you say catbird seat ?!?
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Hahaha you are hilarious! And, great job.
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Good luck to IBC going long, unless plasying $D or $ CHK as I posted this weekend for a longer term 2012 play.
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1170 is the line in the sand for the bears…last week they were able to breach this level on a low volume / light participation day and managed to lure many more bears into the trap as a result. Good times for the bulls. Long GM & VMW calls and TLT puts – all purchased on day of aforementioned breach. Giddyup!
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Lemme get this straight: The “line in the sand” is some number below Friday’s high and above Friday’s low? We are down 7 days in a row and move into the previous day’s range is a change of trend? OK.
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Maybe its not your line in the sand but the action Wed and Fri appeared to revolve around 1170.
How’s that fat cash position working for you now…Toddo??
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@kid – no offense meant. I hope it works out OK for you. I just don’t see that move as significant based on the momentum of the down move.
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Sorry, I’m feeling a bit salty lately. Take off your shoes and get this week started!
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Printing Euro$ will bolster the euro… I don’t quite get that one. Maybe by averting disaster? But one of the oddest things in this economy is the printing of dollars and lack of inflation. It’s rather confounding to me.
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We print more.
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Important T&A for the bears!
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IMF bailout too small
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Told you Fucks on Friday this would happen
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SP future up more than 2%, WTF …
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IMF to bailout Europe and QE3 is a go.
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“Black Friday sales came in well ahead of estimates at +6.6%…”
Americans really know how to consume cheap shit. We’re no. 1 baby! The world is tearing itself apart, not the least of which the violence on Black Friday exceeded all expectations, and Americans blithely kept the party going.
There are so many fucking cans being kicked down the road it looks like the end of a southern fraternity’s pledge week. Public debt, private debt. Spend more! Print more!…fucking doesn’t matter.
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There was a lot more violence in Pakistan than in US stores.
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FED QE in feb/mar to boost Obama-mans reelection?? this is all so pathetic… the beatings will continue until morale imporoves
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To infinity and beyond. This is comical. It doesn’t matter how far you kick the can, eventually it will blow up.
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MFN -Minefinderss and AVL -Avalon on the watchlists for tomorrow as key longs.
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Shotgun thoughts:
These fools are trying to prop up something that cannot be saved.
The devil will be in the IMF fine print for Italy.
How in the hell did Corzine get the rules changed so he could gamble with client funds? Doesn’t anyone else think this stinks all over the place?
Where did the 600,000+ in silver deposited with JP Morgan come from?
Does anyone else here realize that the “market” ceased to exist in 2008. When fundamental rules can be obliterated via political connections, the rule of law and a nation of laws has been well and truly gutted.
In coming days money you have “on paper” will be confiscated so gains or losses now are immaterial. The only money you have is what you physically hold.
There really is not much cause for optimism here.
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Those are all a bunch of old thoughts. Corzine is gonna get fucked. The Dems never really liked him, they liked his $ when he bot his way into public service.
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Corzine did not change the rules. The rules apply only to “the little people.” Big cheeses like him do not have to obey the law. Haven’t you noticed that before? Even Madoff would have gotten away with it if his sons had not turned him in. The SEC looked the other way.
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It’s good to be in the 1%
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Fly, regarding your bullishness on gold & silver, wasnt your PM thesis based on November seasonality??? If so, there’s only one week left in the month and thus this should be viewed as an opportunity to sell into strength and redirect towards other sectors where December seasonality is in your favor.
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Seasonally, December is an even better month for silver than November.
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and Jan/Feb aren’t bad either ….
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Poof! The last 7 hours of bullishness in these comments looks retarded. Quit being gullible, rally monkeys.
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^^^^ +1
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Cain
This isn’t just an economic problem but a structural problem of the euro. That side can be fixed.
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Sure. But not quickly and it doesn’t help restructure the debt, which really needs to be done right now.
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you’re talking your book now, face it.
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All coming apart already. Euro land will be lucky to make it to the end of the year.
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Angela Merkel Ordering the people to sit down on the grass, He took the five loaves and the two fish, and looking up toward heaven, He blessed the food, and breaking the loaves He gave them to the disciples, and the disciples gave them to the crowds,
and they all ate and were satisfied. They picked up what was left over of the broken pieces, twelve full baskets.
There were about five thousand men who ate, besides women and children
Oh, so that’s how perpetual loans and money printing save the world. Thanks for the explanation, Pitbull. Some of us thought that the U.S. or Europe would end up having to pay back our debt. Silly us.
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interesting free for all in the comments site wide at ibank tonite. fucking fight nite. big move comin?
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The trend in stocks from the 2009 low is remarkably similar to the one that led to the 1937 bear market. Patterns in currency relationships also point to ‘risk off’.
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I raised quite a bit of cash last Wednesday. I should have known better…”they” won’t let the system fail. Should have listened to my gut instead of all the negativity that was being posted here.
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Dollar death (or at least swoon) is as sure as shootin’, so don’t let those ursines prejudice your thinking.
And remember, only a ginger can call another ginger “ginger.”
______
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Again, slowing / declining growth eurozone / china. Establishing another FSEUFSFFS wont fix that. If you believe good growth, and tons of growth is coming then have at it
How about an infinite number of bailout entities that keep bailing out the previous one. PONZI would be proud, but in the end, there arent enough chairs when the music stops
Bot some on friday just names I like. Due for a bounce. Probably drop a triple inverse at open. But ps, EURUSD isnt exactly jumping. Actually lower. How many days, hours, or minutes, do bond yields ease for this time
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Some short squeeze plays:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3062-nasdaqshort-highlites.html#shortF
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go to “shorts as a % of float” … as if you didn’t already know that!
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DOW up 243 at 11430 … SPX 1183 +30
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Anyone have any info on the BTB 10 year auction “no charge day” that they’re talking about on CNBC? Apparently Italian citizens can buy the bonds at auction today without paying for them right away. Google search comes up empty.
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No fees when bought in the secondary market. Apparently the auction went well.
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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/11/27/bloomberg_articlesLV87YI0YHQ0Y.DTL
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I love the sweet sounds of performance anxiety so early in the morning…6-7%+ yields are a GIFT in comparison to what Treasuries are yielding.
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