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It seems that the Olympian Fowl of Late November have been a bit tardy this year. Gauging the current mood of the financial blogosphere, however, one would think the Mohawks had rescinded the Thanksgiving truce and were busy rendering bad punk haircuts to the entire Southern District of New York.
Ridiculous. So you had a bad “Black Friday Shopping Experience?” You didn’t get that $199 42″ plasma from Best Buy despite leaving 4 grandmothers denture-less thanks to your “flying elbows of mercantile death?” That’s a damn shame. You should bring a hockey stick next time if you want to prove you are a playah. That’s no reason to go all knee-knocked on the market because of a bad Turkey Week. I urge you not to become Ursine Prejudiced. It’s the worst kind of poison for the mind.
You see, sometimes the Turkey Gods are leisurely in their ambling down from the stratosphere to bless you with the grapes of coin. This is why it pays to have patience and to step into an oversold cycle in a graduated fashion. Last week I saw the PM’s starting to show signs of a rally even as the dollar stayed strong, but I knew that rally would not fully materialize until the dollar was finally ready to retreat. So I played halfway, and stayed out of the high octane stuff (save for a starter in AGQ) to start.
By my calculations, that dollar retreat should have started Wednesday or even Friday of last week, and therefore, by those lights, the dollar is living on borrowed time. I think we will see a top perhaps as soon as tomorrow morning as the dollar tries to rally to the September highs. From a stochastic and RSI standpoint, that rally looks ready to stall. Note the overbought conditions in the following daily index chart:
I think we can take advantage of this pullback and I plan to put on some leveraged plays — including NUGT and AGQ — if the dollar begins to break down significantly this week. I’m not sure I will have those plays on for very long, but I think we can take some short term advantage of the return to the mean this oversold cycle presents. As usual I would look to the liquid plays — GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SLW and RGLD. If you insist on playing the micros and the juniors, please play small… and swiftly.
Best to you all, in your tryptophan heavens.
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to bless you with the grapes of coin.nice!! Looks like a good quick trade, i’m looking to buy the dollar on the 50 ma
staying with my Bais..
Len?
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Senator – are exk and ag the micros you are speaking of? What are reasonable tagets for these two birds? I am underwater on them pretty good. Thanks.
I think EXK will break $12 this cycle and AG will get back to the low $20’s. I was really thinking even smaller than those two, however. Think “GPL.”
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EXK has printed the $.75. If target is $12 thereabout, is averaging down here worth it?
Aren’t predictions supposed to precede the event?
Hey, you get a second chance to unload your bullshit silver stocks!
Oh oh, that was meant for Master Fly. Don’t even know how I ended up on this page. You can keep yours until they are winners.
Mighty generous of you.
I have, by the way.
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Since no one seems to come to my blog anymore, I will toss this suggestion to the ever grateful ether:
QRM has double bottomed.
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Jake, I still visit my friend. QRM has a chart similar to AAU. Both sitting right below the 50 day SMA and looking like they are putting in a double bottom. Do you still like AAU?
I still like AAU, but it’s gotta get some volume here.
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Visiting, though haven’t been making with the bon mot-ery of late.
Keep up the laudable endeavours (sic), Old Sport.
Duck still comes to visit. He just hasn’t had anything to add to the conversation lately…
Thnx … I missed doubling up at $2 and again at $2.40 … couldn’t pull the trigger before the long weekend and now I pout. 🙁
Plenty of time. Remember… EXK was at those prices not too long ago.
It’s like the story of the two bulls on the hill looking down on the vast herd of pretty cows.
Plenty of time to enjoy a moveable feast.
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U run and get one and I’ll walk and get the rest …. yup!
Jake!
Often quiet, but always here sir… thank you.
Hey, those of us here are loyal followers, Jake. The rest are wankers who can’t take the volatility. Even Fly has seen the light and is transforming into a PM bug. He is a Fly after all.
No one sees the Barney Frank Rally?
I’m wondering if he’s getting out because there’s gonna be some sort of revelation regarding his dealings with Fred/Fan and/or the banks?
Or maybe he’s ill. I just can’t see him going out voluntarily.
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Jake, would you swap out of AAU for QRM? More potential with QRM?
QRM is extremely volatile, but I like it a little better right now.
That said, I wouldn’t dump all of my AAU either.
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He’s leaving beacause he wants to spend more time with his family. Haha, nah fugger sees the writing on the wall and knows he can’t get re-elected.
See ya fuckface Frank!
@DMG — It’s good news for sure, but yeeesh — see who is replacing him???
That stupid bizsnotch needs to get Perry’d. Seriously, Breitbart or someone needs to shine the light on that troll.
On a brighter note, GSS up HUGE today ($0.01).
Mamma mia…
lol..
Yes! I still have my “hair shirt” shares.. and though I am very happy for Mr. Partridge, my heart sunk when JAG was bot instead of this, lol… alas I am patient & stubborn.
Ironically my biggest underwater position $$$ wise is GDXJ, I never chased and bot weakness — how silly is that on my part? *sigh..
Onward, forward + good luck to us sir!
I have told you many times that GSS is a dog with fleas.
If you are gonna go junior lotto tickets, you are better off w. BAA or AAU.
(or QRM or AVL if you want rare earths)
Meanwhile, look at little ag play ANDE!
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Mind the elections in the Congo for BAA. Any thoughts on ANV?
Well understood on GSS sir and I have never had a doubt on your calls… only referring to the last fistful I kept via the never sell all axiom.
The Andersons! — what a day!
Thanks Jake.
That last was directed at my bro, not you, Kohai. He is a stubborn fugger.
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Patrick, still like ANV, even as it tortures me all the time.
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Thanks Jake. Love the blog.
Senator, I am presently being tortured by ANV but I remember how sweet it was all the other times and so I’m staying:)
GSS gets bought by ________!
2012 headline.
Cha motherfuckin ching.
I am always here, just not always commenting.
Jake, are you a buyer of GOLD? I was out at 119 and tried to get back in last week but got stopped out. Now I am thinking we have a 50% retracement long happening here with targets at 132. BTW I am always here as well.
thanks
Too much country risk in that one.
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I’m always around, just never have anything remotely worthy to add.
Untrue…
+++++++
Senator, I’m a faithful reader even though I don’t have much to say at times. Even when you don’t have time to write a nightly post,I often just scroll back to older posts and look at the charts just to see where we’re presently situated a la trend line. I must be learning something because when things are particularly vexing and you’re silent, I just say to myself, “Now, what would Jake do?” Anyhow, today I was actually off all day accompanying my 5-year-old’s kindergarten class on a field trip. I’m exhausted! Please keep up the great work. It is very much appreciated:)
Wow. St. Louis’s playing like it’s 2009 JIG.
What gives! Yishe a wowza.
You mean New Orleans??
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oops. Lost in translation, but yes.
Ditto momo’s last two sentences!!
Make sure you guys watch the above video.
It’s hilarious.
Giants suck, btw.
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Treu.
Hey Jake, good work as always. What do you think of silver relative to gold? Last cycle silver had a massive pop then didn’t make a new high for the rest of the cycle while gold did. Now silver is lagging in the beginning of this cycle. You think silver will catch up? Thinking of rolling my SLV into DGP. Thanks.
Yes, I think silver is coiled here.
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EXK @ $11.8, AG @ $17.75. Sell when even to the ground (versus deep garhold)or hold for that rarest of things lately – a good profit?
also bot ANDE