Italian 10 yr bonds are north of 6.3% and Spanish 10 yr yields are north of 5.6%. European banks are down 10%+ across the board. And here I am fighting fucking werewolves, long silver like a fucking paradiddle. I sold my TLT about 8 points cheaper and half of my VXX 20% ago. I am, without a doubt, the angriest man on Earth today. How fucking retarded is this perpetual Greek tragedy? It’s the gift that keeps giving.
In case you are unaware, the Greek government is on the verge of collapse. They are questioning whether to accept the bailout or not and as a result the leader of that ass-fucking nation might resign. This is the worst case scenario for Greece and the EU because it will lead to an unorganized collapse of the Greek economy. They are heading for decades of national poverty.
The MF Global collapse resonates with people because of contagion. They collapsed because they were levered 40:1 on Euro-trash sovereign debt. Now we all want to know, who is next? The result will be a rout in any and all financials. Moreover, the deflation trade is now the only trade that makes sense. Remember, if Italy goes, it brings the fucking world down with it. If Greece is the ass of Europe, Italy is the cock. Pardon the grotesque imagery so early in the morning; but Italy will be fucking people shortly.
How to play it?
Well, go raise cash and get short exposure ASAP, even if it means being wrong. The reason why you short here, at these oversold levels, is because of the possibility of total and absolute collapse. Should that occur, you will be beaten like a baby seal and your skin will be used to manufacture Chinese organic tents.
UPDATE: As discussed here last week, institutions are selling low quality sovereign bonds because of the voluntary 50% Greek haircut, which disallowed CDS buyers to cash in. Think about it: they bought CDS to hedge their bond exposure and and now find themselves fully exposed to a 50% Greek haircut. Is that fair? As a result, Italy and Spain gets sold.
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I am pissed….I am also thinking about taking half off the table, which would bring me to 75% cash. Fuck.
Perhaps you will want to read my blog in the future here at IBC?
November surprise!
Hyperbole will get you everywhere.
So Greece is gonna vote. BFD.
Yeah, but Italy is also totally fucked. Imminent collapse of the Euro-zone is on deck.
Indeud.
Prepare to accept refugees.
Or is it prepare to repel boarders?
Hopefully this will bring more gyros to upstate New York. God I love them…
What part exactly?
Via refugee Greek cooks.
Totally HB. Just b/c the 1/10th of 1% hate on the Greeks, and seek to buy their real estate and business’s up at pips on the Euro, I admire and luv the Greeks.
Admittedly, their recent arson propensities are an exception; but, hey, if I couldn’t eat or put a roof over my head without being packed sardine style, who knows!
Doctor Fly, what are the mathematical chances of the Turkey gods taking a vacation in Europe this year? Just to fuck with everyone for the fun of it.
Europe is Turkey-free [sic]
way to step up fly
BANNED
way to man up fly
BANNED AGAIN
The clam warned outright warned you about this Huggie. We all knew it was inevitable. I can’t believe anybody would go long with government warnings unprecedented volatity..
Just a blip in the grand scheme…operative word “scheme”.
yield for Italy bonds?
beside TLT forming a skycraper here anything else worth notice on the bond market?
oops missed the precent there sorry
god damn you just scared the shit out of me el fly.
the gyrations of euphoria and panic in this market are reedonkulous.
So, today is not right time to buy $NFLX?
Well, lately I was just doing the oppizite what Fly was doing.
I am selling my $TZA today. Buying $JASO, NFLX and $MWW. Will see who’s right this time.
Everything is fucked. I’ve been a day early/late all year long. The low probability trades have persisted all year.
Get me my dog! I need to kick something.
the greek story is insignificant. we all know that greece is fucked either today or 6-7 months down the road. the bigger story is the bond yield for spanish and italian bonds.
Wow…market is up 1% from pre-market lows. Commodities going up…People are buying here.
watch bonds, not stocks
If by people you mean “Clam” then I agree.
It was so obvious. Human nature. Did you really think Papandreou wouldn’t be forced to make a move to side with his people just to keep his job?
Let it default!
Fed out of bullets. ECB out of bullets. EFSF never had bullets.
Bring it on
There was nothing obvious about this.
As a bear, having to sit through the ‘euphoria’ of thursday. Would have looked dismissive to assault the deal. Was obvious to me, at the time, to think everyone would just get along, as self-interest would return.
I deserve a little hindsight rant
Buying more $FXEN. Thanks fly for the picks.
It’s all about timing…
careful of reversogyrationalism – I predict by the end of today, Papandreou will rescind call for referendum, accept call for confidence vote and/or snap elections. Top guy falls, the agreement moves forward. He’s gotta be tired, anyway.
I’m starting to miss Alan Greenspan.
What kind of yearly returns was MF Global making on their book while levered 40:1? You hear about some of these jokers bragging about a 30% gain and come to find out they’re using leverage in the same ballpark.
Fuck that shit. If you’re that leveraged you should be making 200% returns minimum to compensate for all the damn risk.
Mike Mayo reminds me of Batman (Bale)…
Im going to start a short position on FCX…went up too high too fast. In addition, USD going up.
Anybody have any other recommendations for shorting materials stocks?
check out UYM for a short
Big Mike, are you stoned? We all know what happens between 3 and 4 p.m. MELT DOWN..
Moved back to cash – I have been two-left thumbing this market for weeks. Need to go back to drawing board and think clearly. This market has gone full retard.
Good thing The V.King bought 7,500 shares of EPV last week….
V.King!
So when my kid’s teacher tells the class that Italy is the boot, I’ll make sure he corrects her.
I’m sticking with my silver and looking to add. Missed the low $32s but hope to get another crack at it.
$32 is strong support, but $30 even stronger.
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Probably same reason why EFSF bonds found no bidders.
remember Slovakia? lulz
Greece should vote. Either get with the program, or get out of EU. How else do you stop the rioting? In any event, Greece is no big deal. Already a 50% haircut, so what if it goes to 100%? It’s a tiny economy. Let them flounder on their own if that’s what they choose. At least it will be their choice.
I am long 6 more Mounds candy bars and now moving onto Almond Joy.
I need help.
Ha! We had an unusually low turnout this year as well. Long chocolate/short willpower trade is on at the Wilmer household.
I demand you to stop. Do 50 jumping jacks and drink 32oz of ice water stat….
not us.friggin people come in there damn mini vans from god knows where,the most action we’ve seen in 17+ years we lived here. which in reality pares up with my holiday thesis. and the real economy,last night was very telling
oh, and i still gots my milky ways’ left
We often have kids (and parents) come to our neighborhood from less advantaged areas so they can T or T in relative safety with high candy hit rates.
It kind of breaks your heart, and you want to shovel in a nutritious meal in there with the candy, but you don’t want to embarrass the parents.
We had a three year old and what looked like a 12-18 month old (in a stroller) come by around 9:30 last night, long after all the neighborhood kids were snug in their beds.
Charity begins (close to) home.
___________
you nailed it jake. thats exactly what i saw.
Good on ya’ll.
Echoes of harsh economy here too.
Being in Cali (principally), I’m sure glad to have my security system in. The last thing I need is “slip and falls” or defamation claims.
That’s how ridiculous the CA state is these days, it’s something that has almost ended my Skittle/Starburst, etc., “full bar” generosity.
Sad But True.
Kewl to see the gleeful faces, no wrongful cases, so far… .
EFSF
European Financial Stability Effed
Beautiful.
I will grab more $MWW and $JASO.
People need to relax. The $RUT had it’s third best month evah(sic JG) in October. Let me put that another way. In the last 289 months, this past October was the third highest monthly return for the $RUT.
The $RUT was up 15.04% last month. October is statistically the worst month for the $RUT. Prior to this year, the $RUT had been up in 12 Octobers and down in 12 Octobers for with a negative average return of 1.3%.
November and December are statistically the best months for the $RUT. November has been up 15 times and down 9 times with a positive average return of 1.0%. December is the best month statistically speaking. Up 21 times and down 3 times for an average return of 3.7%.
Any pullback during the next 4 weeks or so is a buying opportunity.
keep buying on dips. you will be taken to the woodshed shortly.
long silver like a parradiddle. lol me too,like a flam-a-diddle.but the shiite still aint a workin. might as well go back into the wood shed and clean it up for winter, cause this fucking day is a waste.
Even when it appears Hugh Hendry is losing, he is actually, redoubling his efforts to smash inflationtards into outer space. Bet against my TLT and see where it gets you.