iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,431 Blog Posts

Extreme Madness Requires Discipline

You know my plight, having ignored The PPT‘s OVERSOLD signals of last week, missing out on this rally. Fast forward a few good market days and things are stretched. It’s always hard to buy the blood. Typically I do it because I am a little off in the head. However, I didn’t this time because I let the headlines fuck with my psyche. You must admit, things just felt like they were going to fall apart. The fucking doors were halfway off the FAZmobile and men in burlap were flailing in the wind with their cocks out. I was adamant about my feelings; but for the most part opted to resist the temptation to sell short–until yesterday’s foray. Nevertheless, I will come out of this volatility almost unchanged, up around 3-4% YTD. I could have literally tacked on 10%, by just holding onto my stocks.

A great man once said “you never get to see it coming, but get to see it go.”

In this regard, I played this tape flawlessly.

Aside from spending my afternoons yelling at illegal Mexican day laborers, I am preparing for the coming sell off. I intend to grow a great beard, arm myself with a Rambo knife at all times, and throw empty cans of creamed corn onto my neighbors lawn. All of these things make me feel better. Being an American, my feeeeeelings are so important.

With regards to sublime harmony of mathematical precision: time is of the essence. I hope you enjoyed your stay in the penthouse, stuffing your fat faces with all of the finest accouterments, for this market is on the verge of fucking everyone and soon.

When I say “everyone” I mean it with extreme conviction.

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117 comments

  1. JTU

    I hope you’re wrong!

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  2. JTU

    Europe is up anywhere from over 3% to over 5%!

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  3. clegger_2000

    SHOMPing sans algorythm.

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  4. MOTV8

    Soon…like today soon? Or when the End-of-Quarter Mark Up/Window Dressing b.s. is over?

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  5. Geoduck

    The market will be going up for the shorts, and down for the longs.

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  6. genghis khan

    ‘When I say “everyone” I mean it with extreme conviction.’

    More shorts on the way then? This rally is based on the hope that Europe will throw a couple of trill at the problem, otherwise it’s going to be like the bearded clam’s Operation Twist – down the elevator shaft.

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  7. Ol' Jack Burton

    ZSL!

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  8. noodle

    good thing I’m a nobody

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  9. bigpun2012

    Value investing for the win . I’ve been holding the same potitions for 2 years and I’m up ytd with out even doin anything but sitting on my hands. I shoulda sold in June but still doesn’t matter much.

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    • The Fly

      That’s retarded

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    • jose mann

      buy and hold is totally retarded …

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      • ALLPROz

        The fact that all believe “buy and hold” to be wrong could quite possible mean it’s back…

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    • muttonfish

      But where’s the fun in that?

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    • HFT Robot

      Buy and hold is the only way to beat the robots who control the market…and you can ignore most blogs and Cramer to boot.

      Also, there are so many 5% yielders that after you tack on some covered call premiums will beat the market every year for the next ten years.

      The daytraders will just chase their tails.

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      • drummerboy

        as soon as anyone starts with the “buy and hold is dead ” bit thats the first signal for me that the other person doesnt know shit

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  10. pedro

    Fly,

    what are your thoughts on the GSVC offering?

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  11. jose mann

    there will come a time when everyone will be fucked by the market …

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    • Moonraker

      Wow…deep thoughts Joey

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      • drummerboy

        thats cause he saw that vid of that italian fella who spilled his shit that goldman runs the world and governments dont mean shit..ALMOST rof

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  12. logicalthought

    What we have here is called a multi-month trading range…

    1120 to 1190 is fair value, as a 2% 10-year can support 14x $80-$85 in 12-month-forward lousy SPX earnings. If things get real frothy we’ll close the gap sitting there at 1330 (really, 133 on the SPY); if they get gloomy, we’ll close the at 1090. So there’s your range for at least the next six months: 1090 to 1330.

    If you pick stocks that aren’t leveraged to the macro– and thus can grow earnings regardless– and buy them when we’re at the low end of the broad-market trading range and everyone’s panicking, you’ll do fine. If you buy them on day’s like today, you’re gonna get burned.

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    • logicalthought

      >>If you buy them on day’s like today…<<

      Please forgive my poor grammar and syntax; let's make that:

      "If you buy them on days such as today…<<

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      • genghis khan

        Logical- what’s your take on PWER these days? I recall you being a huge fan of this company. Buy here, wait for a lower price (what price)? Do you still have a position?

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        • logicalthought

          No, if you read the comments on my old SA articles (and, for that matter, the Yahoo board) you’ll see that I sold it a long time ago in the mid-$8s, taking the loss and walking away. I think they’re still way too levered to Italy and Germany and that there’s way too much new competition in the inverter space. I also lost faith (and trust) in management, as they were misleadingly bullish with their public comments. I think it’s great for the world that solar keeps getting cheaper and cheaper, but it sure is a lousy business. I’m not sure where I’d that company back again because I’m not sure what their cash flow is going to look like going forward… I guess I might take a shot again there in the $2s if it gets there and they’re at least generating SOMETHING.

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  13. Vegas Trader II

    Market is sexy now, kinda like a two bagger when you’re 12 beers deep. The sun will be rising very soon..

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  14. futures

    I love the smell of flaming garbage in the morning

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  15. dk

    should we bag the retirement party? nothing gets a man back on his horse than the specter of shared demise.

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  16. Geoduck

    Should one sell this rip?

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  17. J

    You gotta be a tiny bit careful on the short side here I think. The French CAC is up around 5.75% today and the Germanics are up over 5%.

    Those fuckers trade on inside information so the politicians there could be whispering shit to the stock houses and funds.

    You never know, but these moves up in EU crapville shouldn’t be totally ignorified.

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  18. halfbloodpope

    Hey Mr. Fly, I am in New york City right now walking around with a hot pizza. 8 slices to throw. Lmao, As I type this homeless man picking Mcdonalds bag out of garbage next to me…7 slices left

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  19. Stradavarius

    Isn’t there some poster with a peculiar gravatar face that has been pounding his short drum? Quiet isn’t it? Play it again, Sam.

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  20. Devil Dog Lives

    “No more shorts for me”

    Pussy!

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  21. Geoduck

    Alf? What happened to Alf?

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  22. GR8Trade

    Wow, I don’t often laugh out loud when reading, but that FAZmobile shit was FUNNY! I love it. Of course I continued reading and was reminded of a good way to take a life, compliments of the newly released movie “Drive”. Albert Brooks with a straight razor, oooh. Excellent movie btw, a Flyesque piece to be sure.

    http://www.metacritic.com/movie/drive

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  23. Tisker

    Wow – somehow I can’t see The Fly as a ravenous Creamed Corn eater. Perhaps it’s a kid’s thing.

    I’m hating myself for being under invested. I thought we would get further capitulation from a couple days ago but now we’ve popped too high for me to want to buy. S-U-C-K-S (no homo).

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    • jose mann

      Tisker, that is okay, you can never initiate 200% long at the bottom nor 200% short at the top …

      only Sir Fly can do that … taking 100K to 1 million in a few months …

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  24. Johnny2time

    “I am preparing for the coming sell off. I intend to grow a great beard”

    The beard is fine but there isn’t going to be a major sell off.

    The worst has passed as all bears will be wiped off the map at the hands of the European bazooka.

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  25. pitbull

    Simply…amazing !!
    to overwhelm with surprise or sudden wonder; astonish greatly. to bewilder; perplex.
    verb (used without object)
    to cause amazement: a new art show that delights and amazes.

    You Sir are one of a kind, hope u never leave us !

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    • The Fly

      I will not, especially since I am immortal. Sadly, you will all leave me one day. But your great grandchildren will read me with vigor.

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      • jose mann

        I can no longer sow my seeds because the market ripped my baltz off my shorts …

        manhood shredded, baltz sliced into pieces …

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    • jose mann

      I love Sir Fly, he can cuss from both sides of his mouth, I love Sir Fly …

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  26. The Fly

    LET’S RECAP, SHALL WE?
    .
    .
    .
    I covered all of my shorts yesterday and went 100% LONG RUSL, because I like muscle in my russian RUSL.
    .
    .
    .
    LEARN UP AND TAKE NOTES BOYS.
    .
    .
    .
    So, I am now 100% LONG and loving life.
    .
    .
    .
    I will sleep well

    ALF44

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  27. Devil Dog Lives

    “LETS RECAP,SHALL WE?”

    “No more shorts for me”

    Pussy!

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  28. Matt

    Just started reading your posts a few weeks ago Fly. You literally crack me the fuck up at work. Keep it comin.

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  29. not PPT

    “Extreme Madness Requires Discipline”

    It means PPT doesn’t work. All it worked was Bernanke’s helicopter. When we succeed it doesn’t mean, our system worked. Sometimes external factors favor that, in our case Bernanke pushed the market up for too long. You mistook it for PPT’s juice.

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  30. Jim

    I almost cried when picturing fly heaving cans of creamed onto his neighbors lawn. You have a gift Sir.

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  31. Apocalypse Now

    We have Q3 (Quarter not QE) completing and they need to have the account statements look good for quarter end window dressing. Not only this, but pension funds with 10/31 year ends need to contribute cash for unfunded liabilities that would preclude using it for employment or capital outlays (better spent for those from a policy perspective).

    I want to short but because of the Q3 close, massive up days in Europe and Asia, and large POMO operations early next week (2 X $3B+) I am hesitating.

    Lots of chatter about Denver bunker drills with many elites there and Pakistan on alert, so event risk is higher. That would encourage me to short along with overbought and the floating of new circuit breakers that would reduce the down side by 33% indicates they feel risk on the downside.

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    • KCScott

      1219 – 1228 is where to start loading those balls. Stop at 1230.

      Downside Target One: 1119

      But it may roll way down – depending on how the Huns handle the Greeks

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  32. Kruschev the Wandering & Clumsy Potato Salesman
    Kruschev the Wandering & Clumsy Potato Salesman

    Hello,

    I have called every market top since 1954, the year General Alfredo Stroessner seizes power in a coup d’état in Paraguay.

    Long story short: top is in at 1193 today.

    Sad trombone.

    -Kruschev

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  33. Anton

    Fly back to mustache-punching form by lunchtime, as predicted.

    My first correct call of 2011.

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  34. Matty D

    How much did FLY lose on all his short positions? TROW is ripping.

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  35. Aristotle

    There was a classic camel toe formation at the close Thursday, pull your charts out, you missed it!

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  36. jose mann

    how can AGQ up 5% and ZSL down 15%, WTF

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  37. LastChance Charlie
    LastChance Charlie

    IF I was to go “all-in” on a short or inverse fund today, with a 30 day time horizon – what would be the best play???

    I’m betting it all in hopes of retiring in 30 days.

    Thank you for your anticipated cooperation.

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  38. HFT Robot

    Is it time for Dax to start outperforming the Dow?

    I think so…it means either Dax rallies 25%, or Dow falls 25%, or something in the between.

    The Robots know…

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  39. rookie

    good to have you back. this financial world would be quite boring without your daily pontifications.

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  40. schizo1688

    PPT is now over-bought, gonna short with my 2 fists !!!

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  41. JTU

    Going out on the limb here!
    I`m betting the markets will close at close to today`s highs!

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  42. drummerboy

    the only reason that i ever come back.the first time i ever read about the slice of zaa…………..fuck the market

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  43. jose mann

    market is melting up, fuck, fuck, fuck

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  44. Aristotle

    I love the smell of napalm in the morning…..

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  45. Don't tell Fly

    FTK is ripping it up – over 36% – quality top drawer stuff always floats to the top, no?

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  46. JT

    I dont see any valid reason to get frustrate ….this is part of game i think…we cant win 100%……

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  47. BanAlf.com

    Shorter than Verne Troyer…

    OMG, I’m starting to miss him!

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  48. J

    Oh Oh

    trouble with the Germans. They may vote down a key part of giving the Greeks a bigger begging bowel

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    • drummerboy

      the german judiciary will not allow it that efsf crap is out the window

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    • ALLPROz

      This minor setback will only give longs another stride up once details are panned out.

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  49. schizo1688

    I love MY PPT !!!

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  50. CAP

    *POOF* There goes your Bullshit Rally !!

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  51. TMoe

    wow, ha ha ha

    Fuck the Financials!!

    FAZ mobile ready

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  52. jose mann

    did the market pulled back 200 points in the last hour, WTF

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  53. TMoe

    These fucking robts trading the ES futs today are running wild

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  54. Cato

    relax bitches… just the late longs getting flushed out…chill out on the FAZ mobile Cheech

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  55. federalist

    Hope is fading — must be time to go all in!

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  56. Don't tell Fly

    TVIX barely moved today – not good for bulls – not good at all.

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