It’s all over folks. We can bounce off oversold levels; but it’s all over. Recession is all but a foregone conclusion. You should expect to hear a lot from “The Great Roubini” in the coming and weeks and months, warning you about “no more policy rabbits”—whatever the fuck that means.
The numbers all add up and you need to be honest with yourself. Obama is a zero, just like today’s jobs report. We are in the midst of a severe tailspin and our only hope is President Romney. However, before we can price that in, we need to price this in. Earnings estimates need to come down, a lot. Naturally, THE BEARDED CLAM will interfere in this fair fight and throw cocaine laden nuclear bombs at the bears. I don’t even know how to respond to that, other than contemplate taking up the hobby of puzzles. What I do know is the market will most likely be much lower than it is today, 6 months from now.
Over the weekend, I will be building a short sale list, to be posted inside The PPT first. I am not an overzealous person and understand the rubberband effect. Meaning: we can bounce from these levels. I just need to get my ducks in order, prepare for the inevitable whoosh lower.
If you got caught long today, do not be stubborn about your position. You may very well get a rally soon, based upon the notion that Helicopter Ben will toss bricks of cocaine out of his, ummm, helicopter. But remember, we rallied in 2009-2010 when the economy was growing. I am not so sure how QE3 will mesh with negative GDP numbers.
The math is simple: reduce 2012 eps projections of $94 to $70, slap a 13X multiple on it and voila: you have your real market bottom right there.
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Don’t forget Solis the naught.
Shorting gold.
Yikes!
In that statement I hear the echo of someone shorting SPY back in Sept. 2010.
In the pre-HFT days, agreud, but unlesss your heard, SEC Schapiro commenced subpoenas on many algo-firms.
I’m becoming more contrarian by the day. If there’s a gap today, absent much corroboration, I say short. Algos torture-machine are polor-parobolic (noone discusses this).
Double top on PM formed (silver diff. story). Thanks. Fuck. And Short OTM 165 puts (Nov. expy. when market magically returns).
@Fly, still on with the $WNR and $GSVC thesis, or those going out the window?
still with them
Thanks.
If you’re right here (and you definitely may be, although $70 in SPX earnings sounds too low to me– low $80s sounds more realistic– there’s no reason to stay with GSVC… I mean, do you really think that those bubble-priced companies will be able to IPO at prices higher than their last private rounds in the environment that you’re projecting?
You are right. But I can be wrong, no?
In the big scheme of things, my GSVC position is a hedge.
Yes, agreed. It’s why I’m just about as bearish as you are but am mostly in cash rather than short. It just seems to me that GSVC is a bet on a bubble and a hedge against being wrong about a bear market might be something less extreme than that– I don’t know, maybe INTC or something similar that can grow in a mediocre economy and doesn’t require a bubble for you to make money, as it’s unlikely that if you’re wrong about “a bear” we’ll instead wind up with “a boom.”
Gini the Roubini, that guys funny. Like Hollywood, his wife placed him in his jobs.
Is Horatio Clawhammer going to make an appearance?
the Fly is freshening up his burlap pancho and black sombrero for Horatio’s return.
i also will be much more ready to short/hedge
Wow!
The economy was roaring perfect when this guy took office and now look at it!
no shit, bring back the W.
W was a fucking idiot monkey.
Turkey just expelled Israel’s ambassador.
Had they tried this shit under “the W” he would have gone crusader on them, liberating Istanbul and renaming it Constantinople.
Tell W he was a Monkey when he tore a hole into oil rich countries. Who, at Costco (or Whole Foods), was complaining about economy when we got what we needed. Operation Iraqi Liberation.
I think a man with a plan to deliver is better than the apologist in office. More NFL or NBA anyone?
Obummer wanted us to be “just another country” and it looks like he’s succeeding.
As good as that sounds on paper, I don’t think “the other countries” who live under our aegis of protection are going to be digging that too much.
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In that regard, Shelby Steele wrote an absolutely devastating column yesterday: Obama and the Burden of Exceptionalism.
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Had they tried this shit under W, somebody would have first had to explain to him where Turkey was on the map.
One thing about Bush, he always did what he said he was going to do. No surprises, no lying, no equivocation.
“This comment was authored by a community organizer”
Next stop, White House.
Mitt Romney doesn’t know anything about anything. What a kook. Obama doesn’t understand business that’s for sure but Mitt doesn’t know how to tie his own shoes.
Mitt would punch you in the face for saying that.
When Mitt wins 2012, Fly should take Directorate post in the Fed or Treasury (as a matter of patriotism mind you), mint gold IBC coins.
Yes.
Naturally, I would need to fill one of the many Czar positions and make love to the camera Genie Roubini style. Cadence, sweat, arm chair posture, long vowel pronunciations.
I’d like to be Czar of the internets, enacting all sorts of heavy handed policies on you fuckers.
Yea right. He of course never ran Bain and Co and took to degrees from “Hardvard” simultaneously without the help of affirmative action.
Yep, Romney is a fake like O.
Eggsactly. He may have had a leg up at Hahvad from his Governor Paps, but everything else — the Bain stuff especially — was all him.
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Grom — seriously, are you kidding?
The guy was lead partner at Bain & Co. — one of the most well respected management consulting companies in the world BEFORE starting Bain Capital, which is now one of the ten largest Private Equity firms in the world.
He saved the Utah Winter Olympics from bankruptcy and had it turning a profit inside of 12 months, and he was an “outsider” governor of one of the most liberal states in the union.
I don’t think his competence is in question.
Only his commitment to small government and free enterprise.
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arent mkt bottoms ususally associated with lower PEs?
just asking …. heard 8x from some.
The avg trough PE since ww2, during recession, is 13x.
But the kicker is 13x REDUCED estimates. The PE of 900 S&P with current eps estimates gives you a much lower PE multiple.
Wise man, Baron Rothschild said in 1815, “The time to buy is when there is blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own”. Still true, with Ozero leading the retreat.
He meant real blood. As in when he bought the british stock market after it declined 98%.
You are not going to believe this but, I know what he meant.
What US cities Ruggy for “real blood?”
Chicago in the 60’s and LA in the 90’s. My tops are NYC, Phili, Las Vegas, followed by a tier-2 Richmond/Atlanta score card (notice nothing in the heartland).
Rice and beans both thaw in water after 5 hours. I have a couple brita water filters with numerous, plentful filters for change-out.
When the riots begin, have a plan to vacate and head for the hills. Point noted.
I have already left L. Island for North of Albany and currently digging a moat.
I was trying to get this up last night, and I’m still having trouble with the chart, but I will amend that later.
In the meantime, it’s best to remember that when it comes to banks, There is no Bernank, only Zuul!
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GET A NEW COMPUTER
It’s not the computer’s fault this time, fucknutz. I’ll elaborate offline.
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Excellent GDX call by the the O’ Leprechaun Senator!
Grazzie. If you were on the PPT, you would have seen my AG, EXK and GDXJ calls as well.
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Fly, are you still holding TBT?
It makes for a fine hairshirt or cilice — for all one’s penitential needs.
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At this point, I’m not sure that Ben throwing bricks of cocaine out of that chopper will be any different than bricks of C-4. The numbers just continue to tell us “F-You”.
Obama the Conqueror >> Obama the Zero. IMHO
Zuul the Destroyer.
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In this jobs market, if you don’t know how to program social media sites or create Google algos… You’re Screwed!
If you don’t have a PhD in math or CS , you’re probably not going to be recruited by $GOOG.
Fly,
Even if we’re on the verge of what’s technically defined as a “Recession,” how much does it really change things? Especially if the Bernank helicopters in, does a slightly negative GDP print really merit massive earning estimate cuts?
Still waiting for all those wealthy people and profitable corporations to whom the government gave trillions of borrowed dollars to create jobs, to actually go out and do that.
Oh wait, they pissed it all away on derivatives and housing.
The real reason everything is heading lower is because the Republicans are the architects of the biggest financial mess the US has ever seen, and with their power in congress, they are intent on continuing their extreme stupidity.
I admit that Obama has been ineffectual in dealing with those morons, but that doesn’t make him wrong or them right.
The economist who dreamed up the concept of supply side economics should have his nuts stapled to a 2X6.
“nuts stapled to a 2X6”
—
That’s some seriously vivid imagery !
Ouch !!!
.
So you mean Obama’s only responsibility as president was “dealing with those morons” who are no longer around and preceded his administration? What kind of job is that?
From a gov’t headed by Obama to a dude named Mitt? That’s an improvement? LOL!!
What kind of parent names their kid Mitt?
Actually, Mitt is his middle name…maybe he’s too embarrassed to go by his first name…WILLARD.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f6/Willard_1971.jpg
“Willard is a meek social misfit with a strange affinity for rats. He lives in a large mansion, accompanied only by his cranky and decrepit mother…..”
How is name relevant?
I personally like the name Willard; it’s very presidential sounding, in fact.
Ur wrong FLY and this post will go un-remembered once u start going long and stocks are higher.
I thought I fucking banned you?
Sadly a lot of things both fundamental and technical are pointing to him being right, like usual.
I think this day feels like one that could be down 500 by the time we are finished.
We might have a call opportunity brewing.
We all know the market is manipulated for confidence support to avoid animal spirits and the herd from running over the cliff. I can not believe that the PPT would not levitate this into the 3-day weekend. If they don’t it shows ridiculously poor planning on POMO timing. Other than the month end levitation window dressing, the most important real world issue is the real demand economy.
How many Memorial day weekend car sales are going to happen when Friday comes and people looking to purchase check out how far they are down on their investments? They think, maybe I’ll delay that car purchase until I feel more confident about the economy.
It’s possible shorts will cover before they decide to take the afternoon off for the holiday, and that could make it low volume and easy to lift the market.
Gold and TLT say M.E. tensions are high.
When you write PPT, do you refer to this site’s algorithm or some outside organization?
Meh……I’m thinking more along the lines of $62-65…. Low 800 range
We’ll see soon we shall….
from the department of redundancy department
Herbert Hoover never looked so good
you are the best trader/blogger in the history of the internet