A quick way to blow yourself up is to believe there is no way your thesis can go wrong. For example: I believe the market will trade lower. Yes I do. However, I am not selling my WNR or GSVC. Reason being, I am not in the stocks for 1-2 points. I am in them for monster, gorilla, cocaine rallies, the sort of shit books are based on. I am perfectly comfortable absorbing loses in my longs, especially since my exposure is so limited. Plus, the market might just go higher, despite my sentiments.
Understand something, if I lose 15% on 40% of my assets, I am only losing around 5%. I piss on 5%. If timed correctly, I can reallocate my 60% cash horde (Ducktails) and bank 20% on keenly placed trades. That’s a 12% kicker, not including what I will make back on current longs into an uptick. In other words, I intend to make 20% on the next move higher, pushing my year to date gains past 30%.
Over the past few days, I’ve been bleeding out a little, 1% here, 1% there. At the present, I am +15% for the year; but my BETA is very low.
Ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, I am sitting on my tank, smoking a cuban, watching amateurs shoot each other in the face with kalashnikovs. I have my TZA calls hedge (+30%+ today) and will sell it whenever the shadows near my favorite urinal tell me to.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=500F9W1qku8&ob=av2eU 603 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
I too learned a lesson today.
Do not scoop the sardines in the mustard sauce out with your fingers and then use your laptop.
The keys will smell but your cat will like it.
I just threw up reading that. Thanks TC!
Very important lesson.
Same thing happened when you played with your high school girl friend’s pussy, except it was keys of an IBM Selectomatic.
You mean “Selectric” don’t you.
The other is a “Vegomatic.”
I be wrong.
Just looked it up -there also was a Selectomatic (and a Selectric).
Those “mag” cards were fun.
I’ve never heard of the Selectomatic. It’s not on the IBM website. If someone can post a link, I’ll find one and add it to my vintage typewriter collection.
That must have been ages ago riggedgame. I am guessing you had a lot of jungle to bushwhack through on your way to the temple.
@Dirk…you know why I never have sex in the morning?
A. You ever try to pull apart a grilled cheese sandwich
Heat it up first
i love the smell of fresh va-jay jay in the morning.
Thinking out loud here.
I wonder if this is why Females don’t post (Trading Nymph excepted- she sounds like a Female, anyway).
Or maybe they are just smarter.
Females don’t post because they generally suck at most things financial. TW is the token smart chick, and TN is batshit crazy (in a good way).
Not so junior, not so…
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/14/business/14mark.html
Name some female money managers who have consistently outperformed their peers instead of posting some asinine article written by a NY Times pantywaist. It’s really easy not to sell at the bottom when you’ve got your head in the sand and won’t open your statements.
Trader, Yep I am all female… There are a lot of female bloggers, but many stay out of Fly’s Place or hang out only on PPT for the most part..maybe too rough? I am crazy in a good way, so I like it here.
@Dirk – I will say thank you for the compliment. But I will also counter that TN and I are not the only women who post here; we are merely the only ones who admit openly that we are women. Others let you think they are men because they don’t want to have their intelligence judged because of gender. Can you imagine such silliness? Now look around you…can you guess which posters that you assume are men are actually women? Haha..fun stuff. I leave you with a little article from Dr. Doug http://www.cnbc.com/id/39800726
The research findings disagree with your assertion.
If it’s from the sea it’s not for me.
OBGYN’s key pad at the hospital must be pretty similar to Caddy’s right about now considering he/she watches the market at work more than I do.
Sardines…gross.
Sardines and mustard are pretty good together, just found that out this year.
The tuna brand Chicken of the Sea now sells some lightly-smoked Sardines at my store. I get two slices of some Pepperidge Farm dark-wheat bread, put on some mustard on each side, put those smoked sardines on there – mmmm, mmm. Great way to forget about losses.
It would also go good on either pumpernickel or rye bread with a thin slice of sweet onion.
A grainy mustard or a hot/sweet mustard sauce would work.
Fine living.
Just wipe the keys with your ass a few times and the cat will stay away.
But that just will bring the dog.
This is the best thread in a long while. I had my pair @ open today and fucked it up by getting greedy so I need the humour this eve. My losses are nil, but I missed out on 3% gain which is a chopstick in my eye.
It’s all nice and true, BUT WHERE’S THE SEARCH BUTTON in this new design!?? Should I look under the “Premium” tab or go directly to Google’s domain search?
http://www.google.com/advanced_search?q=site:ibankcoin.com&hl=en&lr=&safe=off&prmd=ivns
Make sure you have safe OFF.
and put a quarter in the fortune tellers box, ask for sam.
I went into the iBC archives – a very musty dusty place with spiderwebs everywhere. I checked – scrolled rapidly – looking for Nr. Fly’s VIX trade but could not find it in Aug. or Sept. 2010. I will reserch more slowly…at some time in the not too distant near term future.
$VXX not $VIX
Google is your friend.
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/09/15/fly-buys-vxx-tza/
ANYONE CAUGHT GOING THROUGH iBC’s ARCHIVES, without the explicit permission of the iBC Gatekeeper, WILL BE SHOT.
Sorry broker A
lmao
I was fucking here!
One of the good posts through and through.
fly, tanks for the advice,lol.
THIS I could not make up, Po Pimp mentioned my FAZ buy. So I looked it up to see what day I went long on it, IT WAS SEPT 1, 2010, exactly one year ago. At the time I beieved in the perfect market theory, therefore all the QE2 news was already priced in. Boy, was I wrong about the perfect market. Learned a lot since then..and still learning.
I guess you never learned how leverage decay works.
Bullish, Reading thru my notes on that day. First, boy I spell like crap. Second, omg, I was learning what POMO and what the NY Fed Bank was and how it moves the market. Three, I was so stupid buying ahead of the NFP. Four, I was starting to read the PMI’s, but had no clue about flash or how they actually move……..I had started my Diary in July of that year, about two months after I started hanging out here…learning curve…you know next year I am going to shake my head on how little I know at this point.
You’re humility is an attractive quality (however).
“Your”, yikes, strike 4 (back to bench).
Blind…thank you.
Nymph – I was really just bringing your attention to the subject of “leverage decay”.
My point was that you indeed made the correct call over a 1 yr period. You bet that the banks would perform poorly over the last 365 days. Granted had the banks not tanked over the last 5 weeks you’d be very wrong, but regardless. XLF over one year is -2%.
You had chosen to short banks with 3x leverage. Shouldn’t you have gained 6%???
But wait, FAZ is down 26% over the same one year period.
The problem you have is even when you are right… you are wrong.
These things are great trading vechicles but horrible investments.
Btw, did you change your name? omg – I like it. lol
Oh, that is what you meant. I know, those ETF’s are horrible. Yet, for my training I saw the ETF’s as a method I could use which would limit my risk in my learning process. I had daytraded them before, but I really got stuck on that bubble as you know..and used them as tracker, even though they are not the best trackers at all.
How in the hell can you use the phrase “limit my risk” when referring to a 3x leveraged ETF?
That is insane.
I can only lose my investment, a short has greater loss potential..
Sounds like you should study risk management before wondering how the end of capitalism is going to take place.
not end of capitalism at all, but just copper driven commodities bubble inflated by China Govt and ROW Govt intervention into a problem they can not fix. Bubbles happen all the time and we survive.
One of my friends was buying uranium, convinced that it was undervalued. He piled in. Uranium then proceeded to go sideways for 6 years before it’s big popular rise. In his case, he made gains in spades, but 6 years? That’s so early it’s wrong. Something to consider. That would be like shorting the housing market in 2002 because you saw a housing bubble. Some people did identify it. But if you traded based on that in 2002, it was the WRONG MOVE.
Holding a leveraged etf for a year is a definate loss even if you were right. They erode value every day! I held one for about 4 weeks once (like an idiot). Near the end of the 4 weeks, what I hoped would happen in the broader market came to fruition exactly as planned, but the trade was still a loss from the DAILY bleeding out in that vehicle.
You guys need to understand these 3x leveraged ETF’s better. There is not some automatic decay that occurs if you hold which will result in a definite loss. That only happens if there is a lot of volatility. one day up, one day down will result in great losses due to price resetting via warrant purchases. But if there is a nice trend without as much volatility, you can succeed. Don’t believe me? Let’s say you bought FAS on the low in Mar 09 and sold in April 10. You would have pocketed a 10 bagger.
I think you should buy FAZ
i met a guy today, he had no toe’s ,he kept fallin over. i asked why do u keep fallin over? he exclaimed “im lack-toes-intolerant.
I would rather be wrong and lose money on a thesis I believe in, than blaming my loses on someone else. Having conviction in a thesis, and sticking to it, is great advise.
I’d rather realize I’m wrong and get out of the trade.
good point,
Good insight. Thanks!
went to egypt last year, it was great except when we went to that statue of the mans head with the body of a lion. i went around to the back, man it really sphynx back there.
bunch a egypt haters,,,,lol
In “Back in My Tank” blog on Tuesday, about seven comments from the end, I wrote:
“I doubt S&P gets above 1220, and look for
the market to get BUTCHERED on Thursday 9/1.
Buy your TZA and FAZ at 10AM tomorrow near
the peak of this rally phase.”
For those who don’t know how to use this site, look at “Blog Archives” on the right, set August in the white box, click on the “my tank” blog and re-read by BRILLIANCE.
excellent call, it could of gone the other way.ism was key?
Trading Goddess told me a few years ago that you never have to brag about a trade, people will always notice..fwiw, that is what she said…that, and that I spell like crap..her two pieces of trading advice to me.
Let us make sure you really go that right; she said what? Spell or smell? Had to do it TN, love ya!
lol, no, I think it was for sure spelling not smelling. She really hates an improper use of the english language. Congrats on the call. luv ya too.
Did she comment on the use of … ? I find it easier to read when people use proper (or remotely proper) punctuation and sentence structure.
http://www.gamequarium.com/sentencestucture.html
It didn’t get “butchered,” though.
Congrats on making a correct call, Rigged. Are you still in that trade?
left prior a comment but it did not appear.
Good evening ladies&gents,
40 day hourly has more room to downside and 50% retracement 1371-1101 in SP500 was almost reached with the high on Wednesday.
ES 1188.50-1187.75 and ES 1179.75-1178.75 is a range attractive enough to enter long with leveraged ETF like SSO/UPRO
Charts SPX 40 Day Hourly
http://www.objectivetrader.com/
You don’t count your cash when figuring your gains and loss percents?
I piss on this market. Time for some Megalomanic action:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlYLCYmbqq0
This video captures the essence of ibc.
very nice. is kmfdm considered old school yet?
I can hardly wait for the “A” game galleria.
Bye, bye BAC.
I’ll 2nd, 3rd and 4th that.
.
Damn The Torpedoes … Full Speed Ahead !!!
—
SHORTER … Than Verne Troyer !!!
.
… as it were …
.
Mr. Le Fly,
You are certainly exceptional at what you do. The problem is your commenters, such as those here in this comment section, using 12-year-old cuss words and generally making iBC smell foul. It is hard to stomach. It’s like you merely tolerate them just because they add to your site stats, when actually, they’re like a smelly skunk next to a fine dining establishment. One can hold one’s nose long enough to read your excellent posts, but then it’s like wow…I just threw up in my mouth a little.
The whale always wins Mr. Ahab.
Embrace the seawater or stay on the shore.
So read the blog and don’t read the comments then.
If you haven’t noticed, this fly idiot posts 11 yr old curse words….
Get long retards… Trying to think of something witty to say, but too rich and apathetic to say anything else. Bottom is in. See you at DOW 20k.
… what’s your time frame, goofus ?
.
2525 AD ???
.
Pah-leeeze !!!
.
2015. I hope you get pinkeye.
+130 tomorrow on jobs surprise or lie, however you choose to see it. Brought to you by BanAlf.com
.
In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive
They may find …
–
In the year 3535
Ain’t gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lie
Everything you think, do and say
Is in the pill you took today …
–
In the year 4545
You ain’t gonna need your teeth, won’t need your eyes
You won’t find a thing to chew
Nobody’s gonna look at you …
–
In the year 5555
Your arms hangin’ limp at your sides
Your legs got nothin’ to do
Some machine’s doin’ that for you …
–
In the year 6565
You won’t need no husband, won’t need no wife
You’ll pick your son, pick your daughter too
From the bottom of a long glass tube …
–
In the year 7510
If God’s a-coming, He oughta make it by then
Maybe He’ll look around Himself and say
“Guess it’s time for the judgement day” …
–
In the year 8510
God is gonna shake His mighty head
He’ll either say “I’m pleased where man has been”
Or tear it down, and start again …
–
In the year 9595
I’m kinda wonderin’ if man is gonna be alive
He’s taken everything this old earth can give
And he ain’t put back nothing …
–
Now it’s been ten thousand years
Man has cried a billion tears
For what, he never knew
Now man’s reign is through …
–
But through eternal night
The twinkling of starlight
So very far away !!!
~ Zager and Evans ~
Regarding Q3 WNR, any possibility could be botched or miscalculated as Q2 was
Pro tip-Obama will go nuclear,
Interesting play here. So the employment number was down and Uncle Ben told us earlier this the week that he will wait until September to see how the numbers play out for Q3.
I’m damned to know how to play this other than wait a week of so let the market settle down and then look to buy on the back of Q3 coming on stream.
The Fed has to act if employment isn’t raising because its part of its dual mandate.
The dual mandate is a joke.
There will be some form of easing, though – there has to be. If the fed doesn’t backstop the bond market then demand for treasuries will drop, rates will rise and the US will go bankrupt. I am of the opinion that whatever easing is to come will be politically acceptable only if things have gone to hell. I think we will breach the August lows before the next fed meeting.
Who is going to wear heat from. Economics professor Rick Perry?
The clam would ignore him.
It was interesting that in the past few days we’ve have accommodative discourse coming from two other Fed board members.
J I have the Clam’s Backbone in my hand. He can’t act even though the bulls try to convince us otherwise the last few weeks. Today, could be a good test. But as long as Core CPI is moving up..the Clam is helpless.
I Gotta say.. fuck the PPT worked out well with this move. The fucking thing is like a time machine.
The job report basically says there’s no wage inflation. Deflation is still a real threat. The Fed made it clear that they might disagree on initiating QE3 on fears of inflation, but they will use all their ammunition to fight deflation. Hence a stronger case for QE3. But only after the indexes plunge.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/01/tropical-storm-irene/#more-46492
Looks like Irene wasn’t a hurricane after all.
Markets always seem to be able to rally back from a poor jobs report.
Europe accelerating to lows of the day!
My gold stock GSS is up today in a big down day. It must of been way oversold. I know it is a gold play, a flight to safety play, but it a higher cheapo risk stock. I could see it was coiled back ready to go higher a few days ago. It’s on the bottom in of it’s 12 months trading range. Sometimes hard to say hold or sell on strength.