I am trying my best to allocate some cash here. But every time I scan the market, I don’t like what I see. Today’s warning signal is coming from none other than BAC. Apparently, Countrywide financial is sinking America’s biggest bank and there is nothing being done to give the market confidence. It’s as if “they” are doing this shit on purpose.
I do the math in my head, over and over and over again. I cannot think of a scenario where the stock market breaks out for a prolonged run higher. If the economy is really in trouble, there will be no assistance from the Federal government. It’s important to recognize the political environment, led by the Tea Party, is aggressively opposed to Fed stimulus. Mostly everyone in Congress is hating on the Federal Reserve, which leaves us with what?
NOTHING.
The free market people will have their way; and I guarantee, they’re not gonna like it. I still find it amazing that our government, in lieu of crazy unemployment, is opting for a balanced budget approach to fixing our problems. This is fucking lunacy. However, there is no point lamenting over fiscal policy.
Having said all that, a sharp reflex rally is right around the corner. Since I am already long WNR and DECK, I am looking for some exposure to tech. I have a long list and will likely take a stab at one today, despite the bad bank tape. So you know, I am not optimistic on the long term prospects for this market. But, I believe we have a 5-8% rally from these levels, going into September. On the next rally, I will reevaluate my position to conform with my longer term forecast.
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…I lifted my Hedge this morning … LONG to max here ! fwiw
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LOL !!!
Gotta love the haters !
Too funny !
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Alf !
You are so awesome. !
You. Need a tab…
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.on the timmy knight rider blog!
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keep chirpin’ children … watch and learn !!!
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In The Land Of The Blind … The One Eyed Man Is King !!!
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The past two trading days began with a good rally only to sell off later in the day. Do we have a trend day Today? I am nervously sitting on SKF and TZA with a small profit, if we bust SPX 1045 I will sell otherwise I’m gonna ride it out.
Edit: If we bust SPX 1045 I sell.
… nervously sitting on SKF and TZA …
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prolly should be … I’d be nervous too !
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Market can crater now, sold short ETF’s bought TNA.
Very true… any move higher will be a short covering spurt, hopefully giving me a chance to unload my useless longs…a tincture of time will tell.. as always
Is $OVTI tech enough….let me look that up on my iphone.
BAC is getting Angeloed.
Dr. Fly,
As loud a voice as the Tea Party has at the moment, do you really think the Obama administration will do nothing to improve unemployment, housing numbers or the stock market going into an election year?
Yeah, yeah, they’re all fucktards, etc. But they are politicians, all about self-preservation.
And I thought it was kind of interesting that the Chinese announced that they’re all going to Disney World instead of Jackson Hole this year. They’ve never sent a senior economic minister to J-hole, but I thought the timing was kind of like telling Bernanke to go ahead and do what he’s got to do.
There won’t be a Chinese official on hand to say, “Prease stop deva-uring ow-wah investa-ments, prease.”
I’m not taking a side here, but I find it Ironic that some elected officals that have held office for 10, 20, 30 or even 40 years are blaming the Tea Partiers who came to Washington less than a year ago.
TraderRick, I don’t find that surprising at all. Ironic, yes, it is. But the voters are dumb enough to fall for it. The Tea Party has been doing what the rest of the Repubs want to do anyway but they know their constituents wouldn’t approve of tit, because it will worsen this Recession/Depression. So they say “Oh, the Devil– I mean the Tea Party– made me do it. I had no choice.”
meant to type “approve of it.” I miss the edit button. I know, “Bring your A game.”
Best strategy now is a strangle option around the 51 Qs…Bernanke will either disappoint or surprise and then the fireworks will start…you might add a VXX put kicker as well.
MPEL guy, Congrats..you don’t have to get a job at McDonalds.
Thought for the day: Jackson Hole is like a Glory Hole frequented by sleazy trench coat wearing economists.
Congress will not balance the budget, don’t worry about that. Some fiscal sanity would be in order, we can’t keep spending 40% above tax revenues on credit. The tea party dudes have a few things correct.
They do indeed. Unfortuantely, the structure of our political system is such that a group can’t just have a few things correct and then work together with other groups on areas of common agreement. The group always has to go to ridiculous extremes, insisting on having its way in everything totally– insisting on being the one winner in the dog-eat-dog competitive struggle for dominance.
Special Interests Groups, including those backing the Tea Party, insist on having the whole country for themselves and their own best interests, and on effing everyone else 100%. Politically, they took a page from the Code of Ethics of Goldman Sachs, which states the procedure to be followed: “1. Rape 2. Pillage 3. Burn to the ground.”
Given that Jackson Hole is our door step, does the market have higher potential to the upside (trapping bears) or downside (confirming bear market and rolling over)?
CREE
Fly, I have some tech you might like – CVV
Read the most recent Bloomberg article – http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-19/ibm-work-with-world-s-thinnest-material-seen-creating-faster-pcs.html
I was hoping for more of a dip into today before buying, so I still haven’t gotten any exposure yet unfortunately but I’ll be looking to.
you remember what scotty said about tech and a bottom,yes/no.me thinks scotty will wait till he see’s the white of it’s eyes.