What a fucking day. I woke up in Turks and Caicos, anxious to get back to NYC. Believe me, I love Turks; but it’s a fucking backward beach, where toilet paper costs $10 per roll. I am more than happy to be back, just in time for the fucking market to melt-the-fuck-down.
I leaked out another 1.3% today, despite being in a 50% cash position—thanks to WNR. People sold the refiners, en masse, because Libya was liberated?! What the fuck? Assholes, the Brent-WTI spread is still $24 or 28%. Fuck you homos who are selling down here. Fuck you.
Today’s action in the market was dreadful. Banks are going to zero. Goldman is going to jail. And commodities, sans gold/silver, is worth shit.
What’s the downside?
The median EPS drawdown during recessions is about 15%. At the current, the S&P will earn $93 this year. Okay? The average trough PE since WW2 is 13. Let’s shave 15% off $93. That gives us $79. At 13x eps, the S&P trades to 1031. However, over the past 3 recessions (1990, 2000, 2008), average eps fell by a much larger degree— falling 24%, 32% and 57% respectively. Should the average eps drop by 30% this go around, that puts the S&P at 845 at 13 times earnings, a 23% discount to current levels.
What am I going to do about it?
For the love of dirty dogs, I want to successfully trade out of my existing longs. I am underwater in all of them and feel fortunate to have limited exposure. But it’s fucking hard to watch these stocks underperform, without benefiting from the market drops. Nevertheless, I have chosen the path of long and will “stay the course” (no Bush) and trade out of these positions, through timely adds.
On a side note, I found it funny that Mrs. Fly booked first class going and ASS CLASS coming home, via Jetblue. She spent inordinate amounts of money on all sorts of Carribean shit and managed to stick me next to the fuck toilet, in last class, on the way home as a “reward” for my hard work. How quaint.
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How do these ass goblins on CNBC get hired. Bunch of clueless idiots.
By who they know, not what they know, apparently.
dont blame cnbc ,for your losses that went south getting caught in a crash
At what point in my post did I blame CNBC for anything? I was merely stating my opinion. You need to work on your reading comprehension.
I’m sorry, I had to LOL for this rant. Funny stuff, especially the last paragraph. I feel your pain!
How much is it to fly first class to the Carribean? shit probably more then my car.
The way I see it, if you can afford to go on vacations at this point in time, you are doing alright in my book.
Welcome back Fly.
That’s because you embrace mediocrity.
Hey, at least he’s using the name of a professional basketball player.
You’re writing under the name of Fly’s butler!
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Not at all. I am just poor after getting my ass handed to me in this market. Of course I have no one to blame but myself.
Wtf?! Crack down another 10% right now to $32. What the hell? Its ok for the refiners to not move on a meteoric rise to $37-38 but now we take the elevator shaft down when we’re still above $30? Fuck this market and fuck Libya.
WNR hedged 35% at 27. Let it come down. Good.
So do they get brownie points because they hedged? It’s not like 65% of their production doesn’t benefit from $38 crack.
Pedro, unfortunately, Libya fucked us first, do not even have the decency to put on some lubricants, fuck …
No. The UN fucked Libya.
Cracks are still very high.
only on tall people
The 65% is the production capacity they don’t use.
WNR doesn’t like to run its refineries. It might get them dirty.
“hedged” ???
What a concept !!!
.
… welcome back, btw !!!
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thought it was 28 Mr Fly??…looking at my scribbled notes from CC…if Im wrong please dont crush me…
I love your wife, she sounds just like my wife.
And mine too.
I tell her the market is melting down and we will end up stealing children off the street to eat for protein and she says shit like.. Can we not talk about the market. I bought a lovely dress today and saved 300 bucks because it was on sale.
Lol – Are we sure we all don’t have the same wife? Exactly the shit mine says on a daily basis.
Time is money so I went and bought a Rolex -Wiz Kalifa
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l85JNOGorwc
Welcome back.
Fuck JBLU, Get into a timeshare executive jet…..”>
Sitting next to the toilet on a plane, not fun. Good to see you (read you?) back at home.
Mrs. Fly’s JetBlue seating arrangements send an interesting subliminal message that …… oh, crap, I’m just not going to go there.
I love Mrs.Fly !!!
Love, Love, Love !!!
ms fly is awesome!!!! dont ever let her go man
im guessing she is also a tiger mom.
most chinese wives value spending differently and i think ms fly is awesome in knowing how to save on things
reminds me of the story of the millionaire who saw his wife clipping coupons and told her “were millionaires honey why are you still clipping” and she goes on saying “thats great honey were millionaires” and then subsequently continues to clip coupons
Mrs. Fly is Chinese ??? WTF …
wow…… did i say she was chinese?
read again good sir.
dude, you said most chinese wives, WTF does that imply, Mrs. Fly is half chinese, geez …
Uh, maybe he’s talking about his own wife, dude.
It’s true, Mrs. Fly is a coupon-clipping, mah-jong playing Tiger Mom.
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Fly you always have good luck when you encounter troublesome commodes.
Welcome back, shit hasn’t changed as much as its stayed the same. A relentless, downward drubbing.
If the Chuck Bennett bottom gets breached, I believe all hell could break lose. Probably lose another 5%-10% within a matter of a couple of days.
Chart shows some decent long term support at 1040-1050, if the CB bottom doesn’t hold.
If 1040 doesn’t hold, it’s all over. We will be grasping for any tiny crevice to latch onto as we cascade down the mountainside. Might latch on around 800-900, if this isn’t the final Armageddon. With the opposition in congress in favor of armageddon, and currently in a position to make it happen, that has to be a more realistic concern than it normally would be.
Try to think of that leg home as an opportunity to remember what it’s like to be a lowly pleb.
Or, remember that even a seat in the back, next to the toilet, is a level of wealth undreamed of by even a 19th Century king.
Last Class beside the fuck toilet ,your the only blogger in the market sphere to make me laugh frequently.
I was lamenting over it for half the flight to my wife. How dare you put me in “last class!” The nerve!
so what did you do, Le Fly, did you fucking kick that toilet until it leaks and spills all over ???
NO, you just do what Mrs. Fly told you to do, and that makes you my hero !!!
I watched Arthur.
good movie? or irritating?
Le Fly, is Mrs Fly Chinese ???
no
Burmese, actually.
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ah, like the cat… very nice
we need prechter to declare s&p 500 and hugh hendry to be on every finance station doing the hugh
i also want john stewart to yell at jim cramer untill i can say we have reached a working bottom
silentmax, show me a picture of Mrs. Fly so that I can see who she is, that can bring Le Fly to his knees …
you’re creeping me out. leave mrs. fly out of this.
Today we got a pathetic relief rally, the market can now continue it’s decline into Friday. I don’t think Bernanke is ready to start QE3 which is already partly priced in to this market.
why do folks keep saying QE3 is priced in when we have nosedived 17% in 3 weeks and are currently bouncing along the lows? When the fuck did it get priced in?
dude, they priced it in when you are not watching …
figures…
you’re assuming that once known, every nth degree of QE will result in rising stock prices…
no, i really don’t believe a QE announcement would have a positive impact on prices. Not a sustained one, anyway. But when people say “it’s priced in”, i assume they are suggesting it is priced in to the up-side.
Personally, I don’t believe it’s expected, nor do i believe its priced in, nor do i believe it would help prices in a sustained fashion.
Wouldn’t history suggest that it WOULD help stock prices in a sustained way? I don’t understand your thinking.
Just because it worked once doesn’t mean it would work again.
Once some nutsucker says “it’s priced in”, every nutsucker wannabe will repeat that same mantra. It’s like watching politicians from both sides repeat the same talking points as none of them can think for themselves.
Priced in?…bullshit. If Clamster says another round, we’re going way the fuck up. If he don’t we’re goin way the fuck down.
Price these nuts in.
Fuck me.
Believe it or not I have plenty of dough, and my Mrs. always books, “ass class.”
I’m leaving tomorrow from Manhattan Beach back to the sunny shores of New Joisey,
and yep, sitting in the back of the bus next to shitter!
Like I don’t enough of that smell in my daily job!
Plus, I always get the fat lazy american as my seat mate. The fucker that takes up
both arm rests, and would never consider giving me a fucking chance to spread out.
Meanwhile, the Mrs. and the skinny kids are enjoying the fine space that these fucking airlines provide.
Welcome back sir.
Mr Fly, we have all the fast trading firms going on tv saying that these swings are not theres, they only bring liquidity.
however, i have a theory that only those on the street inside could confirm. I figure that while they were on holidays during the start of this, the computers were at work, not as managed as usual by human folk.
they optimized and took the market much further in swings and inso ripped off all those who sold. they of coarse borght and sold again, rinse and repeat but the computers i think exaggerated the swings.
reason i think this is did you notice when they all got bak from the hamptons that the swings were less dramatic. also did you see all the bozos on tv. im sure some senators are on to these massive profits they booked and looking into their trades.
thus the computers algorithms have been turned down by the managers of the guys who operate them. they have been told to keep the action small so as not to alert the media and also the senators and SEC.
notice some old rich folk are selling everything that have become wealthy of many years, they know about this.
little wild this theory, but i sense it with my spidey sense that we have been taken by the algorithms.
If you are rich enough to not need to be in the market, you don’t have to know anything special or private to want to get out of a market like this. Even if you don’t know where the market is going next, why take the risk if you don’t have to?
Like the politicians didn’t go short in late July? There is no law against insider trading by politicians like there is for corporations. If business execs are doing it while it’s illegal for them, certainly the politicians are doing it when for them it is perfectly legal, and surely they do not care about you or me or how much money we lose to them and their precious banks and investment firms.
I have flown Jet Blue only a couple of times and I am curious.
Fly, since your seat was in the area does the Lavatory also have Direct TV (classier than saying fuck toilet)?
I started laughing when I saw that damn shark on the home page. Good stuff.
A grand welcome back, Fly. I am playing my accordion to celebrate your return.
I believe a polka would be appropriate.
Or a Scottish.
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You went to the 11th Canadian province, ergo, the $10 toilet paper roll.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/turksandcaicos/
Welcome back.
SELL ALL RALLIES, WHILE ROLLING OUT OF YOUR LONGS, WORKED FOR ME.
Speaking of Ass Class seats… United is in the news today for adding more leg room.
Turns out they’re adding more rows of Economy Plus seats that cost an additional $79 per person. The Economy rows, which fill most of the plane, will remain the same, nearly unbearable lack of leg room.
But United will get the benefit of the ad copy “More leg room on every flight!”
I don’t get why people pay up for that, why not just sit in the emergency exit row for free?
Kind of difficult to fit all 200+ passengers in one fucking row.
Emergency door for every row 😉
On United the emergency exit rows are designated Economy Plus and you have to pay extra for them…
The chance to not die in a flaming wreckage is a privilege, not a right.
Last time I flew into my old homestead, the British Virgin Islands, I was in a five-seater prop with no toilet to speak of. I asked the pilot sitting next to me to swoop into some of the cays to get a better look. Even that beats the last class fuck toilet seating…
Fly small next time.
I cannot describe just how funny this is to me. OTFL!
Looks like you got out just in time to miss Hurricane Irene!
“Abdel-Hakim al-Hasidi, the Libyan rebel leader, has said jihadists who fought against allied troops in Iraq are on the front lines of the battle against Muammar Gaddafi’s regime. . . . Earlier this month, al-Qaeda issued a call for supporters to back the Libyan rebellion, which it said would lead to the imposition of “the stage of Islam” in the country.”
WTF?
The al Qaeda rebels in Libya will free Libya from tyranny!
They are already talking about establishing a constitution w. a sharia basis.
So look for us to have to clean up that mess within three years…
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the bible talks about this.
Comment made me think of some brave seal team six warriors recently lost.
http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_18642254?nclick_check=1
Short the rips, cover the dips. No reason to play this market long any longer.
Welcome back Fly…
Fkash PMI’s just a tad better then estimates..bulls could have their rally today, we will see.
Fly,
I’ll bet you stayed at a Beaches inclusive for families? Am I right?
Wrong. I like privacy
i like this article well good!!!
LOL nothing like smelling ass masked by toilet deoderizer for a few hours !!!
Classic post !!
My guess is the Fly stayed at North West Point Resort. The conch farm on the island is awesome – little “conches” swimming and a huge pile of conch shells.
Just wanna know if you visited the spot where Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner got married on T & Cand I wonder if they had to pay $10 per tp roll, or got comped?
BAC – – Ha ha ha
Nice timing on your vacation, hurricane wise!
GORO a scam??!?!?
“”TheStreetSweeper.org has issued a negative report on Gold Resource Corp. “”
My guess is he rented a house/villa. Hence the bitching about having to go to the market and buy an extra roll of TP at $4.00 a sheet.
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Just hold it ’til you get on the airplane. Sit next to the toilet to make it convenient.