I sold out of 90% of my VCLK position for the explicit purposes of allowing myself to be exposed to DECK earnings, scheduled for this Thursday. My sale of VCLK upped my cash position to about 70%, leaving very little exposure to the market. I intend to build up my DECK position up to 15% of assets going into earnings. The company disappointed last quarter, but still beat estimates with ease. I suspect the guidance they provided was a sandbag, luring estimates lower, just so they could shatter them now. Either way, I have such little exposure, I can afford to take a gamble with DECK. Out of all of the high growth apparel names, DECK is most reasonably valued, trading just 15x next years eps.
VLO is down post earnings, mainly because they suck. I suspect WNR, DK, ALJ and HFC will trade down in sympathy over the next few days, making way for a buying opportunity. The earnings for WNR, HFC, DK and ALJ should be nothing less than stellar.
Finally, I have no intentions to sell GSVC at all, no matter what. If the stock dropped to $12 tomorrow, I’d triple my position. Within 30-60 days, they will announce their new investment. Are you willing to miss out on a potential Twitter investment press release for the sake of adhering to your fucking charts? I didn’t think so. There are so many great privately held companies now. GSVC is in the sweet spot of VC, having exposure to mature, well established companies, like Facebook and Chegg, providing exposure to a market that is normally closed to the average Joe.
It’s only a matter of time before this story get out. And when it does, no matter who you are, you’re gonna be shining my fucking shoes.
NOTE: My favorite way to hedge longs here is still TZA.
NOTE II: As told earlier inside The PPT, I sold out of BLTI.
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Fly,
Are you holding BPFH into earnings this afternoon?
Thanks.
yes
did u gain on vclk?
about 2%
Where is my shine box. who took my shone box.
Gasparino (Mafia Blowhard) just comments on Fox that if the US is downgraded to a “D” rating, the market implodes…although he didn’t say if the sun would come up on August 3rd or not, but his “sources” tell him, they doubt it!
If US defaults on its debt, do more people just skip paying next month’s house mortgage …I gotta go with yes.
oh yeah for sure, if goverment don’t pay their debt why should we citizen pay ours 🙂
Wow, Fly, I guess whenever you want to thin out the number of posters without banning anyone, you can “shake up the ant box,” as someone referred to it on that thread, by bringing up a politically oriented topic for discussion. Political discussion is pretty much guaranteed to get a lot of people pissed off at one another enough to disappear for a while, as people tend to insult one another in the extreme.
Did you buy your own Joseph Stalin costume yet? Many Right Wingers are happy to refer to folks such as yourself as Stalinists, since you are willing to pay some taxes to government, even if you are not willing to have them increased. And because you do not worship every Sunday at the First Church of Ron Paul.
It’s funny how well the Divide and Conquer strategy works. I definitely agree with the person who stated that there is no significant difference between Dems and Repubs, as both parties are owned by the Central Bank. The Central bank folks must feel thrilled every time they see a political discussion that is framed as Dem vs. Repub.– as almost all of them are. The game is called “Let’s you and him fight and insult each other to the extreme, while I run off with your money.”
Hey, what the fuck are you talking about? No one even knows, straight up jibberish.
Maybe it’s all the new jobs being created during this debt ceiling argument. You know how much a political stalemate does for economic growth right? All the readers must have gone back to work.
i thought yesterdays posts were great, from both sides, discussion helps me figure out which way i will go,(investing wise). but i do like ur beat each other up, while i take the money thesis.
The Frog guy is just bitter because he’s shining shoes right now.
Frog,
Where do you get this nonsense: “Many Right Wingers are happy to refer to folks such as yourself as Stalinists, since you are willing to pay some taxes to government”? Wrong! Us “right wingers” realize we have to pay (in the form of future taxes) for the current spending. That is why we are so concerned about the nutty leftist (Keynesian) idea of spending our way out of trouble. Can’t do it. Anyone who has ever bought something with a loan realizes borrowed money makes whatever you’re buying more expensive. Nonsense like your claim that right wingers are against all taxes is why these issues are difficult to discuss. You take a position and stretch it to the point of ridiculous. One can be opposed to raising taxes while simultaneously understanding the need for taxes to fund government. Just because I understand the fact that our government is doing & funding many things it should not doesn’t mean I’m opposed to government. It does mean I’m against an inefficient government and against a centralized government controlling matters best left to lower levels of government (state/local). You can not be taken seriously when you distort other positions to that extreme.
What you say is true. But tell that to Right Wingers who tell me I am a Stalinist if I disagree with them in even one area. You don’t like being unfairly categorized. I don’t either. That was what I was saying.
I’ll stop posting about this subject now, as the discussion is very polarized, and thus meaningless which was my point. But since no one seems to hear my point, there’s no point for me in posting it.
i think what he means is…………that all freshman repugs that come in, are made to sign a pact. that they will not vote on any new taxes. more like the mob telling you if you wanna be a made man,this is what you must do.
“where do you get this nonsense that right wingers are happy to refer yourself as stalinist since you are willing to pay some taxes to gubmint”………how bout nancy pelosi, called everyone a “nazi” during the health care debacle……the bitch didnt even know what those folks’ political affiliation even was, but were nazi’s……….? theres two sides of a coin. wtf
is silver overbought…. zsl is tempting here…
The best thing you can do with your money is get it out of the USA into another currency. Swiss francs, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollars are all holding their value while the USD and the Euro tank.
Canadian, NZ, and Swiss are good, but don’t forget to fill your treasure chest with silver and gold!
While everyone is debating left vs. right and tax increases vs. spending cuts, my REE shares are indiscriminately punching MoFo’s in the face!!
I don’t want to be known as a penny stock pumper, but today one of them had their volume go from
average 7,000 to ………….. 4 million shares ! LOL !
.
Double ? Triple ? No …………………. 600,000 times average volume ! LOL !
Yeah, I had a little on on double, LOL.
what stock?
Don’t want to be called a penny pusher, but PNS on an IBM deal.
WooHoo !
thanks bk
s’aright ……
http://youtu.be/aMGu6457tFY
LOL, the WNR of the future… PNS.
Am I the only one looking at steel (X or AKS) and thinking they have been overly beaten down?
ITW too. Bad outlook
I was looking at them too, but who knows how much farther they drop. Sidelines for me on those, at least for now.
is steel telling us something today = china slowdown = market tank coming
Read a piece not to long ago indicating price pressure for domestic (US) companies was to be expected.
so i met this 85 yr old guy . he told me he was walking by a pond, all of a sudden he heard , help me! he looked around and all he saw was a frog, he picked it up. the frog said hey im really a 25 yr old volupicious bolnd, and if you kiss me i will be transformed. he looked at the frog and put it in his pocket, the frog exclaimed ” hey didnt you hear what i said” he said at my age id rather have a talkin frog.
Doesn’t the Prez pretty much have to sign anything on the deadline ,
and rework the details later ?
Miserable but necessary, no ?
Does the strength in GS and the afternoon rally mean calls are being made from Washington to Wall St giving them the heads up???
Charlie/FBN now reports there will be no default:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/07/25/obama-to-banks-were-not-defaulting/?test=MM
because a failed inexperienced leader went out of the way to “reassure” banks? I think Hoover tried that once.
think about it … they defer payments to contractors, farmers, research grants etc and worse that happens is a short term ratings drop from AAA to AA then back up upon resolution.
“After the Crash, President Hoover was worried about the sinking U.S.
economy. So he called the leaders of major U.S. corporations down to Washington —
auto executives from Detroit, steel executives from Pittsburgh, banking
executives from New York. He said, in effect:
“‘Gentlemen, when you go back home to your factories and your offices,
here’s what I want you to do. I want you to keep all your workers. Don’t lay any
off! I want you to keep your factories going. Don’t shut any down! I want
you to invest more, spend more, even borrow more if you have to. Just don’t do
any cutting. It’s for a good cause — so we can keep this economy going.’
“That may have sounded like a good idea at first. But then the executives
went back to their factories and offices and said to their associates: ‘If the
president himself had to call us down to Washington to lecture us on how to
run our business, then the economy must be in even worse shape than we
thought it was.’
“They promptly proceeded to do precisely the opposite of what Hoover had
asked: They laid off workers by the thousands. They shut down factories. They
slashed spending to the bone. They cut back.”
Consider the source … Fox
that was not a quote from the link above, and they are not the first ones to report that Obama says no default.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/depression-deflation-and-your-survival-2-28569
The top 1% average $1.8 million in income EACH. There are about one million of these, so their total income is $1.8 trillion. If their income was cut back to $500,000 a year, and the $1.3 trillion saved was used to create jobs, we could create 40 million $30,000 per year jobs. Or that $1.3 trillion could be used to increase the wages of the bottom half of our work force – 60 million workers – an average increase of $20,000 per year EACH!
And $500,000 per year is $40,0000 PER MONTH. How does any sane and rational human being need more than that? These top 1% “job creators” don’t seem to realize that their excessive compensation is sucking our economy dry, destroying demand. Or if they DO realize it, they are not merely greedy: They are criminally insane sociopathic misanthropes.
So somehow having 40 million census workers running around counting the number of grass blades would be an effective use of our resources?
If you took the rich’s assets and consumed their net worth, you would solve the problem for a year but then you wouldn’t have anything left.
Figure it out, taxing will only steal from the domestic rich to fleece them and send exponentially higher interest payments and costs to the rich aliens.
I’m saying the Dimwitted rich are destroying the country and themselves, by not having the foresight (Like Henry Ford did) of paying their workers enough, or hiring enough,
to create a country with strong aggregate DEMAND.
Then these rich can open their new widget factory, and the customers with good jobs and money will BUY the widgets – and the SANE rich will set prices LOW ENOUGH to give them the $500,000K per year they THINK they need.
I you don’t understand the above, you don’t understand economics.
How bout those Apple profit margins?
One of my buddies summed it up well in his recent divorce. “If she aggresively pushes her alimony take, she know’s I’ll go fishing.” He makes about $800k per year and pays a reasonable amount to her. If she wants half, he will literally quit his job and live on a beach somewhere. If you tax away 72% of Mr. Wealthy’s income, do you honestly think he will still feel incentivized to earn 1.8 mill?
My little US dollar is at a KEY SUPPORT of 73.50 which is June low, have to hold.
you must be losing a bundle on those paper trades, no?
HA ha!
Everyone says “hoover didn’t do enough”, mmore spending is needed…
In his 1932 election campaign, Herbert Hoover boasted that more public works had been built in the four years of his administration than in the previous thirty. Federal spending ballooned from $2.9 billion in 1929 to $4.4 billion in 1931, a 52% increase. Part of this gusher of cash went to build the Hoover Dam on the Colorado River.
This spending binge, in the midst of recession, brought huge deficits. Hoover then tried to address the deficit with a huge tax hike. In 1932, the top income tax rate in the US rose from 25% to 63%. He also tried to implement a national sales tax, but this was defeated. This followed the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930, which put a 60% tariff on more than 3,200 products.
After 1933, the Roosevelt administration pursued much the same approach. By 1935, Federal expenditures had grown to $6.4 billion, and in 1940 they hit $9.5 billion – over three times the level in 1929. That year, the top personal income tax rate was 79%. President Roosevelt’s Treasury Secretary, Henry Morgenthau, described the results in May 1939:
“We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. …We have never made good on our promises… I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started… And an enormous debt to boot.”
The cycle of “stimulus” and “austerity” eventually leads to more spending and higher taxes. It doesn’t work. So what’s the solution?
less spending and lower taxes.
What are you talking about? “On December 21, 1928 President Coolidge signed the bill authorizing the dam.” As far as I know the Great Depression had not started yet. As someone great and famous once said, “Bring your ‘A’ game.”
I’d take Yogi’s word for it – that was his 21st birthday.
; )
Indeud!
The signing of the bill authorized it and appropriated $165 millions
appropriated:
Devote (money or assets) to a special purpose: “appropriating funds for legal expenses”
Not spend money. I can set aside money in a piggy bank without buying something.
The Boulder Canyon Project Act appropriated $165 million for the Hoover Dam along with the downstream Imperial Dam and All-American Canal, a replacement for Beatty’s canal entirely on the U.S. side of the border.[19] It also permitted the compact to go into effect when at least six of the seven states approved it. This occurred on March 6, 1929 with Utah’s ratification; Arizona did not approve it until 1944.
This occurred on March 6, 1929
keep in mind that they didn’t just print money out of thin air back then.
Since about 1900, the Black Canyon and nearby Boulder Canyon had been investigated for their potential to support a dam that would control floods, provide irrigation water and produce hydroelectric power. In 1928, Congress authorized the project. The winning bid to build the dam was submitted by a consortium called Six Companies, Inc., which BEGAN CONSTRUCTION on the dam in early 1931.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoover_Dam
Herbert Hoover attempted action, convening a meeting of thirty U.S. business leaders on October 4, 1931. Several months later, Hoover established the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, an agency dedicated to funding some of the nation’s major institutions, including banks and railroads.
also
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/hoover-was-no-budget-cutter/241665/
-a group led by a fellow named Franklin Delano Roosevelt–“accused the president of ‘reckless and extravagant’ spending, of thinking ‘that we ought to center control of everything in Washington as rapidly as possible,’ and of presiding over ‘the greatest spending administration in peacetime in all of history.’ Roosevelt’s running mate, John Nance Garner, charged that Hoover was ‘leading the country down the path of socialism.’ “
” Forget it, Jake. It’s Chinatown.”
The average Joe can go to the pomo momo with Mr. Moe, no homo.
I just listened/watched(?) the Google Q2 call and their growth is amazing. The smartphone world is a whole new market being consumed by Google. 160M android activations and 550K new ones per day. If any of you android users don’t use swype (Samsung and others) or Google Voice search, you’re missing out on some amazing technology. I’ve never seen voice search tech that works better than Google Voice and swype is awesome for inputting text.
ok so we spent all that stimulesss money. wheres my dam, wheres my reconstructed bridges n roads? less than 5% was spent on this. it would of helped some pay there bills, pay yaxes and so on. shouvel ready bs
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