I am not being melodramatic or overly emotional about the contents of this post. I am offering you a general diagnosis of my performance and how I am in great need of “adjustment” in order to correct the treacherous path I find myself on.
I will reserve full judgement on WNR’s earnings miss until after the conference call. However, I think it’s fair to say, I did not expect them to miss during an environment of unbridled gift horses. It’s as if they are spastic retards, wheel chairing their way through life, getting knocked into oncoming traffic by other retards with whiffle ball bats. To think that I have aligned myself with people who get escorted into oncoming traffic by way of whiffle ball bat is reprehensible and it makes me sick.
As I drove around in my garbage truck this morning, I concluded that my recent string of set backs had nothing to do with the lack of proper ritual, sacrificing the house pets of my neighbors in exchange for unlimited stock market powers. You see, it’s all a lie, one giant fib, so why put credence into said fib? In other words, this will be the last stock that I buy based upon a thesis. For me, it’s an end of an era. In essence, my “thesis penis” has been cut off.
Other refiners like TSO and HOC have normal management teams, who do not get involved with fucktards wielding whiffle ball bats for sport. The consequences of my actions have been matched with loss of pride, dignity and monetary reserves.
“The Fly” will need to kill a great many people before his thirst for anger and bloodshed is quenched. He will need to be smart about his next moves and rely upon his time machine aka The PPT more than ever.
As an aside, there are no redeeming qualities about this tape. I will look into increasing the size of my downside plays a great deal, especially long TZA, as this market looks tired, old and woefully gay.
In closing, if you followed me into battle and lost a few arms or legs, I am sorry for your loss. It’s important to remember “they are only arms and legs” and as long as you have a penis left, life is worth pursuing.
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Sorry to hear about WNR. Why not roll it all into INVE for one big trade?
I will murder you first.
You are serious? You will not take a hit and move on?
Terroristic threats are punishable by law – even anonymous on the web.
Will you tell us if and when you sell WNR?
I WILL NOT sell any WNR. EVER
Attaboy – since you ain’t a man no more.
I will henceforth refer to the WNR trade as nothing less than “The Glory Hole Trade”. That’s, effectively, what WNR’s management has done with us.
arms , legs gone….balls (my wife has those)……WNR in place……its not a loss til you sell!! Unfortunately..the next Q will have to play out better…thats our only hope!!!
Fly, I believe that the epiphany you had about shorting the market was dead on, and here’s why. Obama wants to get re-elected. Let’s assume that the six largest Wall Street holding banks, who have made windfall profits under Obama, and had spent much money getting him elected in the first place, want to see him get re-elected. Here’s how Obama and his financiers will win.
Major stumbling blocks in the way of Obama’s re-election are the high prices of food and fuel. These prices will be brought down. This will be accomplished by reversing the US dollar plunge. The USD is close to an all time record low against the Swiss Franc, but it is its plunge against the Euro that is hurting the USD most. A firming dollar against the euro will result in lower commodities prices. Expect a stronger dollar against the euro and lower prices for food and fuel as we get closer to the election. Hikes in commodities futures margin requirements and a commodities deleveraging from the big banks, along with a strengthening dollar, will equate to food and fuel price relief for Americans. This is easily obtainable, because the central banks and the commodities exchanges all work in concert with each other. Remember, a stronger dollar vs the euro also equates to a weaker US stock market.
Here’s something else that can be done to assure Obama’s re-election. Obama got Osama, now he can use this event as justification for removing troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. If, before the election, Obama starts decreasing the number of troops in the MIddle East, as he once promised to do, he will be increasing his chances for re-election.
Long term, after the Presidential election, the dollar will resume it’s plunge to near worthlessness, Food, fuel, sliver and gold, etc, along with stocks,.will climb in value once again. But from now until time that Obama gets re-elected, the stock market and the commodities market could be dangerous places in which to be long.
I believe the only thing that could derail Obama’s re-election is another major terrorist attack on US soil. That would be a game changer. Instead of just drifting lower, as it would with a gradually firming US dollar, the stock market would fall like a rock, and Obama’s re-election chances would fall along with it.
i’m sure somewhere along the lines,that something, and or someone will derail his ambitions,and reveal his true hand.which is to become a slave to the chinese,of which you and i will surely pay for. he is full of shit,the people who he surrounds himself with are a bigger pos. and your also assuming that intelligent people can not see through a “wag the dog” play write,all orchestrated by non other than his “barnum &baily advisors and staff
Well done Mr. Fly. Its easy to beat your chest and brag when you are winning, but it take a real man to openly admit a mistake (even if the real failure is management’s and not your own). Cheers
Yes, I am becoming quite good, through all this practice, at owning up to losses.
That’s the market. It is mangagments job to mess up the company. Ours is to read the charts – not the brayings of a donkey fly.
Dem sold puts is workin out jest fine. Thank you FLY and friends for the free 43% in premium deflation in the course of a few hours. You are so gracious. Please keep selling your common.
Isn’t it great that we thought we were buying a refinery company, and instead we hired a bottom-tier oil futures trading “outfit” to trade for us? What a pile of asshats. Maybe they can make money should spreads stay wide over time, but I’m not going to stay around to find out.
Still, every one of us makes our own decisions when we trade. In the end, each of us is responsible for our trading results. Not the Fly or anyone else.
It’s down 80 cents. So what?
the sellers will begin to line up….just watch
Honey;
This elderly grandmother does not have a penis to loose, however my losses on WNR will be no more than my gains on OXY and VLCK (which I sold when it was up 19.40% yesterday). You pays your dues, you take tour chances. You are my only comic relief during the day and there will be other battles to win.
El sell-o in Mayo, el go away-o. That’s spanish for get drunk and bbq instead of buying stocks.
Not trying to be an ass, but that morning WNR printed $12.00 in pre-market was the tell. Shit like that seems to happen frequently.
two words… double down
gonna try!!!
well said, moving on. anythoughts on clne? just got 4 new contracts.
Fly,
completely agree with your view of WNR management. Do these guys wear hockey helmets at work and ride the short bus to work !!!
you should solicit all PPT subs and then go to the internets for more get proxies and kick some ass with management. sorry just blowing off some steam.
i agree with the no sell comment this could turn out to be a FTK.
You mean I should buy more when it gets under $2?
touche …
didnt see that comment … youve got some razor shit … i mean sharp wit
Two key words for success in this market…diversify & rotate.
2 more key words:
Precious Metals
Carlos Slim and Soros selling the precious metals.
I am done thesis trading too….those were my exact thoughts this morning when i saw the earnings carnage.
The chart told the story plainly and obviously. I chose to ignore it based on a solid thesis, and i made a huge mistake there.
LOL….sell that pile of shit and move on! Do not be a PUSS
You belittled me for being bearish on the refiners. If you had simply listened to my logic and watched my Mad Money show you would be up and not backwards.
I will kill you too, live on air.
You could make your $WNR back with that show – I would pay big money to see that.
I am selling out all my WNR at the open, I am not trusting a single dime to those retard management …
take a fucking big loss in this, but I am not blaming the FLY …
Impressed, great post Fly. When I read the “I am sorry for your loss” I almost shed a tear of compassion.
I have moved on. As of this current market bloodbath the TSX will look to have 0% gains YTD.
Its only going to get worse if commodity prices continue or accelerate falling.
That has nothing to do with refinery margins. Lower crude can be a good thing.
Master Fly, what should we do next ???
I sold out of all my WNR at the open … I cannot use my WNR to fuck anymore, I will have to use yours …
Also lost quite a lot in this deal, but I learned a number of invaluable lessons that will stay with me forever. it definitely won’t be the last time I’ll follow a Fly trade or thesis, but sizing, timing, and knowing when to give up and not continue to add like a degenerate will stick with me.
The holy grail was there, unfortunately the company has a management and maintenance staff recruited from within 62,000 new McDonald’s hires
Heres to the future..
Can’t handle panic selling all my shit, so I bought a shit load of EUO. I can only hope I’m not like the fatsos in Wall Mart who buy two carts full of chips and ice cream, along with two cases of diet soda, is if it will work an an antidote for stuffing their faces with trans-fat artery cloggers.
This is not advice:
PPT PPT PPT PPT PPT +> provider of Galactic Positioning Systems services for space alien magicians.
A thesis is something I wrote in grad school.
The thing about thesis trading is it takes longer than you think. You make a real conservative estimate on time frame, then double it.
I am moving my coin to the highest dividend yielders – i.e. energy trusts – which are at bargain prices.
Come on Fly. Do a fly buy for some INVE!
O the Mr. Marvelous Blasphemous Ignoramous misses and blows up his account and any ignorant enough to follow him blindly IN SPITE OF REPEATED WARNINGS, and of course: IT’S WNR WHO IS STUPID? Close your red account and learn humility, then come back to the market for your next lesson.
O, BTW, now that the FLY’s are panic bailing, I think I might start averaging in by selling puts and getting making money off of the fly blood.
fuck you
You can’t remember you got your wnr caught in the FLY. But I do thank you all for the $$$$$ as I traded exactly opposite of the so-called omniscient FLY and went short on his adds and then sold puts on his panic this a.m. Thank you so much contrarian FLY.
Anybody who takes $100,000 to $1.3 mil in a year is a trading genius, one for the history books to be sure.
One battle lost (seemingly) does not mean too much in the big picture, does it? I like the way you constantly reevaluate. That’s what I come here (to your blog) to read.
my condolence to Fly here.
I am pretty sure that he will make it back and more, as long as he sticks to his rules.
it is also a lesson to people here who are just blind followers. Fly is really good at picking stocks, but he is not God. He is prone to mistake sometimes.
Long WNR @ 14.65. You guys are puking it, now it is time to buy.
Disclaimer: I could be wrong. Cut your losers SHORT, ALWAYS.
Fuck it they might take my money but they cant take my manhood. Im glad to hear it from a big shot that we all fuck up once in a while. Thats what seperates the punks ass fags that cant admit they made made a mistake. Fuck it Fly we all fall once in a while just dust off and get back up to fight another day. I been hit hard on my little bullshit 5 figures but ima keep on rolling.
Please, gentlemen of the interwebs!
I beseech you, listen to the Rat
Fly has not made a “mistake” – he is playing a probability game, as are we all, and this is one of those instances where the probabilities played against him
The mistake, if any, was to not sell out of the position as soon as it was apparent that things would not go his way
That will be all …
You are right good point
Anyone disappointed in the Fly should buy one of those stock newsletters instead. I get ads for them all the time. They have one triple digit winner after another, and, the ads never mention their ever having a losing trade– LOL. Of course if you look at subscriber reviews of their newsletters on the web, somehow the story of the reality turns out to be a little different.
minimal hedges in Q2…could be a WiNneR !!!!!!
hey, fly ..if i had held in 08 i’d be fine ! never win by sellling Time is on your side, Yes it is !!
..relax..just time..put shares in the pinapple coffin and the redemption shall be born again.