UPDATE: RETARDS of The PPT: There are many more subscribers than participants in our 3rd annual March Madness contest. This is a head scratcher for me, as I am GIVING away 1k to the winner. I realize some of you couldn’t care less about winning 1k or you are simply too badass to participate in any contests. However, we have a burgeoning 4th bracket pending and none of them will be allowed to play, unless the fucking bracket is completed. So, without further delay, this is YOUR LAST FUCKING CHANCE TO JOIN. Failure to do so with lead to your immediate mustache removal. Yes, new subs can play too, providing you leave a pick from now until tomorrow at midnight.
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Just last week, I was endorsing the full fledged milking of the U.S. farmer, by way of buying Ag stocks. However, late in the week, I ended up selling out of all of them, including AGU, MOS and IPI.
Why?
Well, for one, I had 10%+ gains in the big ones (MOS, AGU). But the more important fact that made me reposition out of them is the hard to spot, but easy to see, rotation out of Ag into precious metals. Do not forget my basic premise behind my current investment thesis is dollar depreciation, which will lead to appreciation of “inflation trades.” The very root of the inflation trade, naturally, is alternative currencies, in this case gold/silver.
So, if you look at things through my scope, it doesn’t matter whether I am long AGU or AG. However, from a swing traders point of view, the divergence of relative strength between the two industries was too much to ignore. Gold and Silver are not just inflation hedges anymore. They are de facto currencies and will be treated as such, particularly during times of duress. As the middle east burns to a cinder, rich fuckers with circles on their heads will plow money into gold/silver.
The second pillar behind my current investment thesis is to be long oil stocks, particularly those who benefit from the premium being placed on crude that needs to be shipped. The WTI landlocked stuff is not bad. But, in my opinion, there is more upside for GOM and western Africa plays. My largest oil positions are APC and ATPG. I booked a 15% profit in KEG and will look to add to a few new names next week.
For those of you who are new to this blog and tend to take things seriously: fuck off. “The Fly” is not about religion, with regards to investment ideas. They are nothing more than letters with digits assigned to them. I am not investing in companies; but, instead, I am using them to further finance the development of the first ever orbital space cannon.
I don’t lose money in the market because I am very flexible and open minded to the fact that I may be wrong. I like to push the envelope because that’s when the big money is made. For the most part, my position size is bigger than yours, both as a percentage of total holdings and monetary size. I am bigger than you and can crush you under a barrage of sell orders, if I chose to go that route. Generally speaking, my positions are 10-15% of total assets, which makes it very easy to go to cash, if I so choose.
As for all of the other shit that makes “The Fly” a superior being, I will leave that for the imagination to decipher.
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First!
The Fly is God.
Hiyooooooo Silvah!
SLV
How about a Bong hit?
Pfatttttt!
2nd
Yeah but can Le Fly do 100 push-ups in a row in a mere 6 weeks? Only time will tell.
I am trying it. Can do about 60 right now, but 100 would be pushing it.
Also, to challenge myself, I’m going to try to do it using the “Perfect Pushups” device, which I think you’ll agree is a little bit harder than the traditional kind.
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I think you’re overestimating how many you can do, by a factor of 1.5…or more…
WTF are you talking about prison pussy? I do pushups every morning. On the perfect pushup thingies too.
And I’ve been doing them since I started wrestling in eighth grade, for gawd’s sake. I used to do waaaay more.
This is our PT 1 – no water allowed
Run around the block
Stretching exersizes
10 sets of 10 knuckle and fingertip pushups
10 sets of 10 situps – no ankle support
The hardest?
10 sets of 10 side straddle hop
10 sets of 10 legups – legs up 45 degrees and back down, feet cannot touch the floor
10 sets of 10 legups – knees to chest, legs up, back to chest and then down
10 sets of 10 squats – arms straight out
You must be yelling at the top of your lungs counting these out
This pretty much has everyone groaning on the floor, some puking their guts out, the idiots who ate spagetti beforehand.
Break with water
Then 45 minutes of PT 2 – either hand to hand combat or training new moves
haha, LOVE this blog!!!!! actually i was hoping you were using these big profits to make, yes, an orbital space cannon,, but made from LEGOS lol… anyways, enjoy the banter Sr Fly!
>>I am not investing in companies; but, instead, I am using them to further finance the development of the first ever orbital space cannon.<<
That is just f'-in bizarrely hilarious!
Mr. The Fly, please honor us with your current opinion regarding the shippers, GNK, etc.
And I apologize for my previous association between yourself and the finely dressed Planters Peanut guy.
Gnk trades like a cornoud
Thanks for sharing some of your letters with digits assigned to them, Fly.
I enjoy the high rate of portfolio turnover seen on IBC
Soros on GPS regarding Muslim States, Obama & Fox News/Beck … The Puppet Master responds here:
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/podcasts/fareedzakaria/site/2011/02/20/gps.podcast.02.20.cnn
thanks for the link. enjoy Soros. he’s spot on with his macroeconomic and socio-political analysis.
Yes, interesting video. Thanks, TH.
What’s with serious post? The first 4 paragraphs were not written by the fly, no way, not one bad word? Are you getting soft?
Ok, my bad, i missed fuckers… By the way, I generally agree with your writings but think short term the dollar will rise v Euro… not that you care. Cheers!
Don’t do drugs Danny, get high on… new silver highs!
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“….divergence of relative strength….” – Interesting.
Fly – Literally?
MDA — please repost that 100 push-up link you pasted the other day, thanks.
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Don’t know if this is what you’re referring to. I’ve tried it, but I am relatively weak-willed when it comes to exercise.
http://hundredpushups.com/
Thanks, that was it.
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I am long lots of oil stocks. I am long some silver stocks. I am long a little bit of ag stocks. If the market was open on Monday I would expect to mint serious coin. However, with my luck all this shit is going to blow over by Tuesday morning and I will get nothing.
We shall see.
ha, ha, ha, you are right. All this may be gone by tomorrow.
I have mainly siver stocks.
My SLV position took a gladly limit last week. But I’ll reposition with a LEAP sooner or later . I hope I’m wrong, but the precious bullion thing may NOT “spike” as expected (not wishing, naysaying nor praying [that ryhmes]). There are, of course, numerous market reasons it should help M. Fly’s canon machines launch, operate in and defend the good ol’ U, S of A for revolutions (of the planet mind you) to come. But only time will tell. My two questions (among a thousand others I’m sure many here share) are whether oil positions are already “built into the price” and 2) whether commentators will follow Fly’s lead and refer to bullion as de facto (compare fiat) money?
Hell, I’d play, but don’t have subscription nor disposable income to invest.
Is there a game, for say a t-shirt for readers?
If I win, I will donate the $1,000 to your re-election campaign.
Keep harrassing The Bernank. It’s quite entertaining.
I’ll give you $10,000 to fucking stop it !!
fly, don’t let that bag harden up. pass it over so i can take a wiff!!!
hi fly,just sent an e-mail to jeremy for a sub. wont be home till 6 your time,will do it again this eve. please see into this thanks.
so i got a password and it keeps looking for a valid address and zip.its fudged, i only have one address and one zip damn it…………
Sell the silver, it’s not really worth anything. Keep a little gold. Buy corps that mint profits. The Bernanke has successfully exported inflation. Witness the oil contango. US manufacturing is gonna boom. Wage costs here are approaching Chinese levels.
said that dude was slick
Alvari40 on the previous blog you indicated that you had a 50% retrace of 3,120 using March ’00 and the low in October ’02…lol, that is why I put the “near” and“ish” in my original figure, I was using monthly averages..going to the exact day I came up with 3081, but the point was more to keep it in mind that it is coming up soon. Also, using the exact day high, the SPX 78,6% fibo resistance of 200/2002 is at 1366…with the 2007/2009 78.6% fibo resistance at 1370…is that what you come up with too? Either way, the Indices are looking at some major resistance pretty soon.
There is a middle east revolution due to Trading Nymphs Fibo numbers. Maybe you should keep those numbers to yourself next time in the name of humanity.
How are you not tired of being wrong … yes some day you may be right .. a day in the future … but by then you will be completely broke.
Kafka, I won’t be broke, so I can wait for someday, Bullish, it is pretty cool that the 78.60% of SPX’s are so close together even though seperated by five plus years.. and that both times the Major moves came when Mainland China came back from vacation.Also,. Sorry about the global crisis, lol.
For those of us ass deep in oil and metal, we salute you. I just wish I was neck deep like Jake.
I am currently breathing through a straw.
A long one.
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If you own actual mining shares, I would say be careful because if equities take a HUGE haircut (almost crash like) they will turn around and head south.
Then the physical commodities will be sold to raise cash.
Always has worked like this (last 30+ years), so don’t get too giddy.
Be nimble and be quick, I say.
As for today, Randgold finished up about 4% in London and here is what S. African mining stocks(what’s left of them anyway) did today in Johannesburg (Canada looks closed):
Anglogold Ashanti Ltd- +3.49%
Drdgold Ltd-+2.07%
Gold Fields Ltd-+3.81%
Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd-+6.34%
Simmer and Jack Mines- -1.08%
Most of the integrated oils in Europe were unchanged to down big, depending on how much of their assets are in Libya and other camel herding countries under siege.
Was gonna check on SLW.TO today and whaddaya know? The Canucks are closed for President’s Day!
They love us, they really really love us.
Or at least, Lincoln and Washington.
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LOL … it’s called Family Day up here. It started in Alberta because all the U.S. oil/gas contractors went home on your President’s Day to such an extent that it made staying open for business in the oil patch, on this day, useless. So they just made it a holiday. It has spread to other provinces since then, including Ontario where the TSX exchange is located. Unfortunately, I am in British Columbia (another province), which has decided not to adopt it, and therefore working.
I little history for those who care.
Sorry U have to work, Kafka. The more holidays the better is how I feel.
I for one think Presidents Day should be celebrated on a Sunday, since only finance related jobs, teachers and mailmen get the day off anyway. Holiday’s are for lazy people (with the exception of the universal holidays like x-mas, easter, 4th of July etc).
Yeah you are on to something. While we are at it, weekends are also for lazy people. Lets go back to 7 days a week at 14 hours per day. Except for Sunday where you can take 4 hours off to worship Jesus, unless you are a heathen then you are to get your ass to work at 7 a.m. as usual.
Agreud. Bullish summed it up perfectly.
I am in Finance related job and my department was the only one that showed up today.
Of course, I am a known tyrant.
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Me too… and I was working today. However, I did take a break to honor great presidents such as George W. Bush.
Why does nobody give credit to “W” for hiring Mr. Bernanke? His best hire in 8 years.
Article in the Toronto Globe and Mail today. Canadian workers have the lowest statuatory days off in the world, 19 days, including 2 weeks holiday. The US worker has 25 days, including 15 days holiday, China 21 days.
Contrast that to France with 40 days and Brazil with 41 days.
Russia is something absurd like 48 days. Not even sure why they bother with business since everytime you turn around it’s another holiday. To make it better they front and backload the hell out of all these holidays. 50% are probably within the first 40 days of the year and the other 50% are within the last 40 days of the year. Nothing in between for the most part.
Russians need those days to get drunk and let off steam or their suicide rate would be even higher than it is.
As for the Canucks and the Brazilians, it lends credence to my theory correlating hot babes and the desire for days off….
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You know, peel off the three layers of down/wool parkas and take off the mukluks, our babes are just fine.
LOL …. an underhanded slam at Canadian women. Not nice!
Well at least they are on average 20lbs lighter then their American counterparts … now I’ll grant you in some area that’s the difference of 220lbs vs. 240lbs.
You know the difference between an Alaskan beauty queen and a whale?
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~about 40 lbs and a tavern jacket.
Thanks Caddy, good advice.
It there’s a crisis, all assets get sold (good or bad)
Haven’t you heard? The Bernank don’t allow no crash. DOW 14,000.
Also, fully agree with the above poster’s observation that we’re hella competitive with China when it comes to manufacturing. It is booming and will continue to do so.
Yeah, plus we speak Engrish.
There will be pullbacks along the way in Bernanke’s bull market. There were some last year and could be some this year too. Hard to predict when though, unless one is the Bernank’s best friend. Some of these bearish events have turned out to be bearish only for a few hours or less.
It seems that the word “inflation” is getting two meanings because of the position of the US dollar in the world.
One meaning is looking at your currency compared to the rest of the world, and seeing its value decline. It is like the whole country is getting a wage cut. Because the US dollar is the currency of record for most of the world’s commodities, this decline is resulting in the price of these commodities going up as expressed in USD. From the point of view of the US, it looks like these commodities are dramatically increasing in value, but their rise is not so dramatic if looked at from an international point of view, if one happens not to hold pounds, euros or US dollars..
The other meaning is seeing the internal value of the dollar declining, with everything you want to buy getting more and more expensive. However, this does not seem to be happening yet to any degree, because the high unemployment rate is preventing wages from going up.
However, when these high commodity prices start to be reflected on Main Street, that is when things will start to hit home, and Americans will have to face their new lower status on the world stage. Higher prices, lower wages, It won’t be pretty.
Of course, a lot of this could be averted if the USA could come to grips with their debt situation, but that will require tax increases and in the dream world of US politics that apparently can’t happen.
An economic boom would help, too. Truth be told, I am against tax increases. Let the private sector keep more of the money and let them run with it, says I. The federal budget should be limited to no more than 10% of GDP, and tax revenues should be calculated to meet that target. Any surplus tax revenue should be refunded to the peeps.
Btw, I am running for Prez in 2012, and will have Rand Paul put in stocks (no pun), if I win.
The Bernank
How will tax increases, which will suppress business and economic growth, help pay off the debt?
There’s only one way to cut debt, and that’s to stop the spending. Cut it to the bone and watch the revenue flow.
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Right.
I don’t know why people have problems with the govt cutting back on spending, like it is anathema.
If the govt can’t spend it because taxes have been cut, then that simply means private individuals and business have more money to spend and/or invest.
Seeing that they have more at risk and have more incentive to make the money work and earn the highest return, the private sector is way more efficient and incentivized than that govt of ours.
Where am I going wrong here?
Take a look at your government budget, most of it goes to debt payments, entitlement programs (Medicaid and Social Security) and the military.
So yes if you cut all those then no tax increases are necessary. But are you going to be able to cut them? Are you willing as a nation to say FU to the poor and the old. Are you willing to say if they can’t make it on their own the f**k’em? Are you willing to cut back on your military? At a time when China is vamping its up.
A recent poll shows that the majority of Americans are for cuts as long as it’s not cuts to anything they may need (Medicaid and Social Security) They are for cuts to foreign aid, which for some reason Americans think they spend a lot on, when in fact the U.S. has one of the lowest per capita foreign aid budgets amongst western nations.
To slay the debt you can’t just cut waste. Cutting waste is good, don’t get me wrong, there is just not enough of it to make a difference. You need to cut the military and entitlement programs. And if you do, I can guarantee you that the American populace will not applaud it once they figure out that that is taking away they things they want and in many cases need.
FWIW, it is does not need to be an either or argument. Both can be done, you can raise taxes and cut. Almost every other nation in the western world does this when the need is there.
Either way, for the no taxes camp to win the argument it means a drastic cut to all the programs I’ve mentioned. There is no way to do it otherwise, anyone who tells you otherwise is either lying to you or arithmetically challenged.
And from what I’ve seen the only people who are for cutting these programs (except for the military) are those who are well off and don’t need them. But they make up a very small (single digit) percentage of the populace. Oh I know the usual response I’ll get is if you cut taxes and make government smaller you free up business to create jobs and put more people to work. This argument seems to imply all these new jobs will by 100K+, which is clearly not going to happen. The majority of people make just enough to get by, maybe save a little. But not enough to not have to make use of those entitlement programs that were promised to them and they have paid into. I’m glad the Jake is a very successful man, he deserves credit for his hard work. And he has the right to keep the fruits of his labor. But there is a place for taxes in society. So yes alphadawgg you are wrong, only in so far as you oversimplify the argument. Cutting taxes will not create a society that lifts all to riches, the numbers on salaries adjusted for inflation for the middle class over the last 3 decades has shown that not to be the case.
There was a huge increase in Gov’t spending when the “financial crisis” hit. There is no talk about returning to past levels. The debt is ballooning incredibly. Like Rahm said, “never let a crisis go to waste.” This is a big scam by the progressives to increase the government sector as a portion of our economy. They will not back off. Opposing them is portrayed as cruel and stupid.
Yes the evil “progressives” are to blame. The fact remains it’s the entitlement programs. s\Should government spending be cut back, yes. But you might not want to start two wars and cut taxes to. That could help. Or cut financial regulation and let those “self regulated efficient businesses” carry on like it an OTB parlor and then hold the country (and world) hostage to their loses. That could help to. This is not a left/right battle.
No, it’s a statist — freedom battle, and it’s quite clear whose camp you’re in.
We “cut financial regulation?” Are you smoking something? We’ve got plenty of regulators, and guess what? They will always be one step behind the thieves. That doesn’t mean you smother the economy with fascist special interest legislation so that there are five banks left to rule the world and in the darkness bind them.
Come back to me about how more regulations work when the people writing the regulations are the ones who got paid back through AIG courtesy of our tax dollar. Wake up, government is NEVER the answer. A necessary evil, at the very best.
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Well, it needs to be both. Serious spending cuts need to be made but that isn’t enough. You have trillions of dollars to pay off and increased economic activity isn’t going to provide the money to do that on its own.
If you cut the spending to the bone the country will sink into recession, the opposite of QE.
And claiming tax increases will suppress business and economic growth is a canard. Modest tax increases are required now if you want to avoid draconion ones later. A 5% sales tax would slash your deficit and coupled with large spending cuts makes huge economic sense.
People need to stop drinking the Republican/Democrat kool-aid and start being more pragmatic about this issue. The future of your country, and of mine, depends on it.
Well said, that’s exactly what I was getting at. This is not a Republican/Democrat issue. It is not an either or decision. Both need to be done.
Actually, I like the idea of .01 cent tax for every share traded, and a penny for every transaction. It would cut down on the robot traders.
You can do that in Canada, be my guest.
Fact is, we’ve tripled spending since 2008, and we need to cut that back first. Let’s see what happens and then check if we need to squeeze the taxpayer more.
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How about using the Watson-like powers of the PPT to fill out the 4th bracket? $1K goes to top human.
What percentage should the average investor allocate to silver and gold? I was thinking 15% toatal with 10% in silver and 5% in gold. Is that in line with most investors or am I too conservative? Any suggestions anyone?
I would say 20% minimum. 10% in each.
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Thanks!
wtf happened with oil, it is up $7.
Libya. Gaddafi is out of his fucking mind.
Bernanke will def be busy this morning, holding back a sea of red.
Don’t worry, just buy with all of your might. This is Middle East Dip Buying part two. The market doesn’t give a fuck.
silver just ripping pamela anderson tits. up to $34.30! http://www.kitcosilver.com/
I am reluctantly posting a recent video alleged to be Steve Jobs (from the Radar gossip site) and he doesn’t look good.
I feel rather bad and ghoulish to post it but I guess it is market news.
http://www.radaronline.com/exclusives/2011/02/world-exclusive-video-apple-boss-steve-jobs-unsteady-his-feet-day-treatment
Yeah, he’s in bad shape.
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Damn, his lawyers are good !
video gone. How’d his wife look ?
Car ?
Just showed the video to my wife a minute ago and it was still there.
His wife looks a little younger and like anybody in the neighborhood.
Car didn’t look like anything special and they were leaving what looks like a mom and pop eatery.
You can hear a photographer snapping pictures and apparently hiding in the bushes.
Sick stuff.
He looks real bad.
Both my parents died of cancer and he looks like what my mom looked like a few weeks before she entered the hospital and died.
Car looked like a late model 7 Series Beemer.
Wife looked like a normal person of a certain age (mid-late forties?)
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Ok, the video is working now, but Forbes has an article out that says it’s a 97 Honda Civic outside a cancer treatment facility. Ever see them Elvis impersonators ?
97 !
When silver’s hoppin’, there’s nothing to do but smoke ’em if you gottem!
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