Some of you misfits are getting lost in the chaos here. I am not here to help or coddle you. What you see here is pure, unfiltered, transparent, winship. Anything but stocks is a distraction. I do not care about your sensibilities or your desires. You have an incredible asset available at your disposal, by reading me on a daily basis.
Fuck, if I was able to read me when I was starting out in the business, I’d be very grateful and appreciative—because it would allow me to bank coin at a criminal rate. You need to come to grips with the fact that I am superior to you, in every possible way. Once you can accept my dominant position, with regards to stock market prowess, you can begin to learn.
Today, I allocated more dollars into the market, reducing my cash position to 15%. Your opinions are not needed or welcomed.
Looking back on my VXX beheading, you need to understand the rationale for the trade. At that time, Europe was in flux. I was predicting an Greek/Irish/Portuguese default. I figured that would dilute the euro, lending strength to the dollar, effectively raping stocks. However, a curve ball was sent my way in the form of QE2. The result was a staggering stock market return, since QE2 was announced.
Guess what?
Nothing has changed. The Fed is continuing its path of mass liquidity and will inflate the fuck out of this stock market. The European crisis is over. Deal with it. On the back burner is a municipal budget crisis, which will do what?
Answer: lead to more bailouts and more inflation.
In short, we’re going up 20% from here. Target on the Dow 14,400.
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Get yer popcorn. FIG
no pullback in any form over the next month? bold call but the guvment is going to keep this uprising trend afloat even if it means bernanke butt pumping it into the market.
tits.
I have to read your posts 3 times because my eyes and mind keep drifting slightly to the right of your posts.
Not that I am complaining.
Haha, agreed. It took me a few re-reads as well.
Thanks for giving me the confidence to short this market again.. this is the call I needed to seal the deal we are at the top.
We will hit Dow 10k before 14K again I promise you. Sure you can say 14K now, but we will drop heavily first. 20% up from here is just stupid IMO.
You are an idiot.
I am stupid because I do not think the market will go straight to Dow 14K after being in the 9000’s just a few months ago? Seems like you are the idiot, idiot.
QE is unprecedented and stupid.
Don’t be stupid.
http://ibankcoin.com/woodshedderblog/2011/01/26/keep-it-simple-dont-be-stupid/
I’ll say it again. Thank god for the people saying “this time it’s different!”
Business cycle. First week of undergrad finance. Learn it.
Recession, recovery.
Bernanke QE Explained:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k
The view long term:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkuOAY-S6OY
EXK +8%
AGQ +5%
Quantify your losship
I don’t play these day trading games. They are apish.
My current return on the SLW I’m holding is well over 300% since May 1st, 2009.
And I own shitte tonnes. TONNES.
________
PFFFFFFFFFFFFF.
Up 875% since last year in my personal.
Oh wait, that’s now over 1,000% with this years move.
I’ve seen the movie.
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Btw, Jake & Fly. Great call on EXK. I had been holding for a while, wish I had more free cash to average down at yesterday’s lows. Though, I’m not gonna lie, most of that cash is still nicely bundled up in FTK right now, so I can’t complain.
St. Francis University …..fer the two of ya’s
I kept my eye on CYT all day and did not buy on the initial breakout this morning. I’m thinking about buying it sometime tomorrow before earnings, which is after market close.
On 11/19/10 Goldman strapped a Sell rating on them and reduced their target to $53 as a result of margin pressure in their resin segment. Eleven days later, Jefferies followed by reducing their target to $59 on resin sales tracking lower. In the conference call for Q3, the analyst from KeyBanc asked about margin pressure (from raw material increases) and volume going forward to which CYT responded by saying that price increases on their products could make up for any margin compression and they noted that into 2011 and 2012 that the airplane industry capacity increase build-out plus the military JSF initiative would help bolster segments of their business.
Since those ratings/estimate changes, CYT has increased prices twice in December- once in North America, and once in Europe/ME/Africa, not twice globally. Along with their factory restructuring one time costs dealt with already, this past quarter’s results could reflect some weakness in their markets but investors should be more focused on the commercial aerospace ramp and margin control going forward. This is exactly what Credit Suisse was thinking also because they restated their target HIGHER ($62->$67) on January 3, 2011 and maintain an outperform rating. CYT even said that they expect higher volumes in 1H2011 while they are currently at trough margins.
Their stock valuation is good and they generate an increasing FCF. The stock is beginning to break their downward trendline and as long as they don’t fuck up their resins and coatings businesses to negative margins, it has potential to grow. If earnings surprise look for Goldman and Jefferies to restate, providing additional catalysts.
I like MMM too for the lower beta play.
I like CYA here.
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+2% today.
+8% today (NUS, MRO, WVR) primary drivers. Sold all WVR.
You are playing w. too much leverage.
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No you’re not.
That’s irresponsible. He doesn’t have your bankroll or your experience.
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No. Just saw the NUS release about gold grades, and caught a 70% updraft in a day on wind river. I’ve never used leverage.
QE2 ends in June. This administration and congress doesnt have the balls to initiate QE3. Look for a big dip in the April/May timeframe as asshole fund managers all try to pile out the same door.
not so sure
Best to be well hedged in late March if you think so.
mars,
Is this where you got your name? (6:32)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlwk8rh425Y&feature=related
Lol. Basically.
They said they will be QE’ing through June.
They said nothing about beyond June and nothing about stopping.
They will never ease up on the throttle.
Like a big engine (with a small oil leak) running at full throttle; it will only end when the system seizes and the engine a-plodes, e-plodes, i-plodes, o-plodes or u-plodes.
Until then, turn up the music.
If you think about it, the basket of commodities tracked by ETFs or futures would have to go up substantially for it to impact our CPI given how it’s calculated now. I see our threats as a freak recovery in housing prices (scary given today’s numbers +12% jump in median prices) which would rocket up the CPI as housing accounts for 42% of the number, or the threat of brick wall style GDP growth at another global economy where American corporations are currently growing. If the majority of big cap US corporations make their money overseas and they are levered strategically this way, it will take time to shift target growth back to America if that foreign country gets strangled by their own real interest rates and real GDP numbers.
Other than that, the US has some of the most attractive looking stocks globally and especially those ones with high operating margins not tethered to commodities- like software, tech, etc.
14400 direct or will there be 4 or 5 down days between here or there?
Poof! I’ve been clammed.
year end
Fly good call on exk and born …you da man.
The biggest concern is going to be $150 oil. Good thing I am long oil stocks. I can run large amounts of scooters and hybrids off the road.
pbr.
Did Mandy Drury just get caught doing a line off her desk?
THAT WOULD ONLY PUT THE DOW UP 18% THIS YEAR!!
not unreasonable
Eminently possible…
“On the back burner is a municipal budget crisis, which will do what?
Answer: lead to more bailouts and more inflation.”
Bingo!
QE2 pales in comparison to the stimulus from the credit boom…new issuance is off the flipping charts. New debt provides working capital, inventory growth, and new projects = higher output/gdp, stock buybacks, and eventually more m&a/lbo’s.
What’s driving the credit boom? Calpers and every other pension/endowment fund trying to make their ridiculously high 8-9%/year bogey to match their underfunded liabilities. Can’t do it with treasuries so they just stepping out on risk with “higher yielding” bonds. It’s an incestuous cycle, but very powerful and very early.
14,400 too low…
Cant wait to see Dow 14,000!!!!!!
I love watching the looks on the faces of the asshats on TV when the bubble burst
F*ck it. Covered all my short positions/hedges and went 100% long the Naz, Russell, and S&P index ETFs today including buying of March calls on the indices for added leverage. I’m not going to fight The Bernank anymore.
Swallowed a 30% haircut on my VIX calls. Silly me for thinking volatility at historic lows means a damn thing!
But wait, Randolph and I got the report from Mr. Beeks, calling for DOW 5k!
Meanwhile…
Winthorpe and Valentine are going long.
I have decided its much better to be a bulldog than jack russell terrier when it comes to speculation…and The Fly falls into the bulldog category.
Sure, jack’s are gonna outperform your average poodle, and they will crush any random mixed breed, but they will always trail the bulldog.
No one has any explanation for what will produce another leg up in housing and commercial real estate. If anything, all the success of companies like AMZN + WMT means commercial real estate wont bounce back EVER. All shopping is shifting to mail order and superstores. All those abandoned malls and mini malls will be abandoned for many, many decades.
And, the entire European, Chinese, US banking system is still tied to real estate values. Demographically, the only nations that aren’t in a complete death spiral are India, some parts of the middle east, and about 20% of Brazil.
Simply put
Real estate and housing are driven by demographics, and there is no TARP for fertility….yet. So, XLF and IYR will have another leg down, probably losing at least 30 to 40% of their gains since the march lows.
Yep, tough sledding in RE & CRE for the foreseeable future.
2m foreclosures expected this yr
can I “like” this?? wheres the like button. wheres the pokeoption
I’m disappointed. Any target less than a gazillon is bearshitter talk.
Yes you are an idiot, because that not how the market works.
lol 16000 then back to 6000
Never again to 6k, baring pandemic, NEO, or CME.
Sounds like consensus opinion to me fly, your just a wasp on us big fish!