Since I’ve been trading on pure religion, over the past 3 months, I thought it made sense to look under the hood of this market, to examine if we are primed for a good old fashioned “homo hammer.”
First, we shall explore breadth.
Today’s PPT breadth reading of 27.4% was the lowest since 11/30/10. What happened on 12/1/10? Look it up fuckface. I’m not your blog servant.
The percentage of large caps rated “buy” stands at 37%, nothing special about that number.
Moving onto the credit markets, they are a mess. Yields have shot up and my Risk Appetite Index is now hovering at $100, off from a high of $105. Realistically, it’s not the end of the world, considering where rates were two years ago.
Looking at my Raw Commodity index, it is very bullish. Natural gas is up more than 7%, over the past week, with coal and lithium trailing 1-3% points behind. Notable laggards are sugar and cocoa, down 9% and 4.7% respectively (think HSY). It’s worth noting, natural gas is up 12%+ over the past two weeks. Over the past month, coffee, lithium and lead are the biggest winners, all up low double digits.
Moving onto individual equities with market caps above $5 billion, MCP, MTL, ANR and WLT are the biggest winners, over the past week. Over the past two weeks, MCP, YPF, ANR and NXPI are your biggest winners. Again, with exception to NXPI, commodity related stocks are clearly the outperformers.
The biggest losers are RBS, COH and EXPE.
The only minor outlier are the semis, with marginal weakness in the shares of LRCX, KLAC, STX and AKAM. Since this market is being led by tech and commodities, it’s important to identify potential chinks in the armor, so to say.
In short, the health of this rally appears to be robust, sans weakness in select tech names.
High beta names setting up for a big move include: MINI, MWW, JOSB, MCHP, HUSA, VECO, CSIQ, GNK and N. The Overall PPT score has not registered an OVERSOLD reading in ages, which is rare. Clearly we are due for a pullback at some point. The question is, why now?
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fig!!!!
YEAH
Seriously….thoughts on EXK? JakeGint seems to sense a downturn in the PM’s…
I sold most of my position, as you know. I will buy it all back if it hits $6.
your thoughts on exk should directly relate to your thoughts on silver. it trades up/down with silver. I personally like it for that reason. today was a crappy day for it, yes… but the bottom line is… if you think silver is going to make new highs, than exk is going to match it.
And if you think silver might pull back a little before heading for the sky, you might wait to buy it.
Picked up some MWW yesterday at 24.04. Ride the wave, feel the flow, it works until it doesn’t, all that bullshit.
nice ass
Thank you.
It’s 2 thumbs side-by side. 🙂
Lola? Is that you?
Isn’t that always the question?
Reposted from the prior page …
Todays’ market action was surprising indeud after yesterdays’ rise … which prompts one to review their charts …. here’s Tonys’ review of the action: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/01/04/tuesday-update-265/
“In our review we noticed that this rally, from the Intermediate wave four low at SPX 1173, can also be counted as five waves up: Minor 1 SPX 1247, Minor 2 SPX 1233, Minor 3 1263, Minor 4 SPX 1254 and Minor 5 SPX 1276. We posted this potential count on the DOW hourly chart and made note of it in the comment section. Unfortunately, even if this pullback overlaps our Minute wave one at SPX 1263 there are several potential bullish short term counts still remaining. However, an overlap of SPX 1263 would be the first caution for a potential uptrend top as well. Since this uptrend has already lasted for six months some caution around current levels is advised. If we have experienced an uptrend top at SPX 1276 specific support areas under the market should start to give way.”
“The first, and important, support is the OEW 1261 pivot range, (1254-1268). A pullback to the lower end of the range would be okay for an irregular Minute wave two, but it would also represent the biggest pullback of the entire Int. wave five rally, (1276-1254), 22 points. This would not be a good sign going forward. The second and more significant support is the OEW 1240 pivot range, (1233-1247). Should the market pullback into this range the decline off the SPX 1276 high would now [be] overlapping the Minor wave 1 high at SPX 1247. A downtrend confirmation is likely to follow if this occurs.”
“To sum it up. A pullback below SPX 1263 is a caution, below SPX 1254 is a warning, and below SPX 1247 would likely confirm an uptrend top at SPX 1276. Until one, or all, of these events occur the uptrend remains on track to reach the OEW 1313 pivot. Just being objective.”
Full speed ahead unless ^ …. This is a good example of how OEW can keep you in or get you out, especially swing traders and/or investors who aren’t worried about a few hundred points to the downside. Candles, MA’s, Fib Lines, Waves, Chicken Bones, etc …Choose your weapon but the waves have been most reliable for me.
Ive been following along with Tony’s blog since the first time you mentioned it. He has some interesting insights into long term cycles and the likes. I appreciate you sharing this, even if just for a little different perspective.
Teahouse — thank you for sharing these and your thoughts as well.. I have a question, does the summation mean on a closing basis or inter-day breaches?
““To sum it up. A pullback below SPX 1263 is a caution, below SPX 1254….”
intraday
today = head-fake
tomorrow = cocaine and whores
Watch your thumbs, Charlie!
____________
lmao, wtf?!?!?
Check out the price action in all of the Dow 30 components, it just feels extended. The action in MCD and KO today were a little disconcerting to me. MCD had huge fucking down volume (36M shares) and got clown boot stomped, with fries. The other gay hedge fund darling that I hate, AZO, had a huge reversal. Same thing with the Aussie dollar, the Swiss Franc, the NZ dollar, silver, gold, palladium, and platinum. CAT, IBM, DD, CVX, MSFT, and HD look toppy. There is unfettered bullishness in GE, AA, T, VZ, XOM, and BAC.
Despite that shit, I still like solar plays like STP and CSIQ but didn’t pull the trigger today.
Jobs reports before the holidays were strong but after reading in the FOMC minutes that employers are still reluctant to hire, it made me somewhat cautious that we could see some increase in jobless claims because the holiday push is over. Reports begin tomorrow.
DIS
A note about strong DIS January seasonality:
“Media Networks revenues are subject to seasonal advertising patterns and changes in viewership levels. In general, advertising revenues are somewhat higher during the fall and somewhat lower during the summer months. Affiliate revenues are typically collected ratably throughout the year. Certain affiliate revenues at ESPN are deferred until annual programming commitments are met, and these commitments are typically satisfied during the second half of the Company’s fiscal year which generally results in higher revenue recognition during that period.
Parks and Resorts revenues fluctuate with changes in theme park attendance and resort occupancy resulting from the seasonal nature of vacation travel and leisure activities. Peak attendance and resort occupancy generally occur during the summer months when school vacations occur and during early-winter and spring-holiday periods.
Studio Entertainment revenues fluctuate due to the timing and performance of releases in the theatrical, home entertainment, and television markets. Release dates are determined by several factors, including competition and the timing of vacation and holiday periods.
Consumer Products revenues are influenced by seasonal consumer purchasing behavior, which generally results in increased revenues during the Company’s first fiscal quarter, and by the timing and performance of theatrical releases and cable programming broadcasts.
Interactive Media revenues fluctuate due to the timing and performance of video game releases which are determined by several factors, including theatrical releases and cable programming broadcasts, competition and the timing of holiday periods. Revenues from certain of our internet and mobile operations are subject to similar seasonal trends.”
Nielson ratings put ABC/ESPN football ratings at their best ever this year along with Dead Clark’s Rockin’ Chair Eve, and this obviously plays into stock movement in January. Media Networks is their largest segment. TRON had a decent pull, but is nowhere near what Toy Story 3 did.
JASO
good old profit taking is reason enough after this huge run… personally i think we’re gonna have a chop fest before the true trend emerges sometime next week. crude goes to low 80’s before it’s next leg higher.
OPEC originally stated that their target was $80 Bbl. Their latest communique states that 90 – $100 is the new target. These folks do not dick around so someone saying that it will go down lower “just because” doesn’t know how the oil bidness operates.
fly,
if FTK gets back into the sub $5 range, would you be a buyer?
I won’t buy unless it goes under $4.
How can we selloff when Ben Bernanke just said he will keep spraying the lighter fluid until joblessness decreases. Even the most bullish scenarios don’t include normal employment levels for quite sometime. I’m sticking with faith.
I find it frustrating that Scotty B is in such stark contrast to most pundits here – uggg!
Scotty was right about the summer- fall rally way before I jumped onboard
You will be back to kissing his a$$ soon enough. The correction might start from here.
Maybe my bubble is finally popping….please…..please? Big Traders are selling the Oz….but everything could change with NFP and Ben B on the hill on Friday.
TZA FTW.
TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR !!!!!!!
I want to see -1% by the open and I will really get excited
I practically expected you to whip out a chart and start drawing lines on it at the end of this post.
This post was neither funny, nor sarcastic, nor gloating. In other words, very unlike you. I take this, ignoring all other aspects of “truth” contained within said post, as a sure sign of pure market hell developing.
-DT
2011 = The Year The Jobs Came Back
Screw off bear shitters, this year main street gets to join the party.
Long live Bernanke!
Careful there Bullish.
Jobs coming back not necessarily good for the market.
Higher long rates=higher dollar= lower corporate profits (overseas).
See market huge rise 1982-1983 and the 30-40% Nas. correction early 1984 when jobs officially came back.
Volume has been double and triple on down days after weak volume on up days to swing points.
However, neither a bull nor bear I be.
Just a simpleton day trader.
huh? This is from today.
Unemployment rates were higher in November than a year earlier in 182 of the 372
metropolitan areas, lower in 166 areas, and unchanged in 24 areas, the U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics reported today. Thirteen areas recorded jobless rates of at
least 15.0 percent, while 11 areas registered rates of less than 5.0 percent.
Simple truth — jobs will not come back until Obamacare is effectively dismantled, and perhaps further — meaning that healthcare may need to be severed from employment altogether.
________
Please take my comment out of moderation. And tell Jeremy to stop putting a tag on the popular name for our new health care regime. (I think that’s what’s triggering)
___________
What’s the name?
“O”-care (it might be the guy’s name which is in moderation, which is understandable)
______
Buying more VLNC at the open. Let her rip!
Good Economic news = Bad Market News…because it means no more QE.
In two weeks, Tepper will be on tv saying he took profits because you don’t have the Fed at your back anymore.
let’s make some money today.
In the words of TimTebow.
Let’s do it and score.
to ask another idiotic question, how are people posting in “notes” in the PPT? I can’t seem to find any place where this happens.
Not a dumb question, because it’s not easy to find. Each note is tied to a ticker…so after you go into the User Notes section, you must enter a ticker symbol (SPY for general market comments, and FLY to talk to the Master)…after you enter the symbol, scroll down the screen and on the bottom right side you will see a box to enter comments and then submit.
Then they will show up in the User Notes scroll fee.
The entire system is organized by ticker…
Hope that helps.
“scroll feed”
thanks