UPDATED: This is a current chart.
That was The PPT range chart, prior to today’s bloodbath. As you can see, from the very extreme levels of 3.32, the market has been trading down. Typically, in past OVERBOUGHT cycles, we’d position inside of VXXcycles and FAZmobiles, while laughing it up, choking on pork chops along the way. However, since my recent decapitation in VXX, I am somewhat, shall we say, “apprehensive” about buying into such lemons. The easier, more reliable bet, in my estimation, is via crude.
Across the board, commodities are being flogged today. If this market is due to correct, 3-5% from here, oil will trade under $80. That’s why I am buying SCO.
In addition to that, I am shorting STI, based around the idea that banks may get the stuffing kicked out of them, sometime soon. Don’t forget who warned you about California munis first. Take a look at PCK. Thus far, it is down 10% for the month, worst since the 35% one month decline in 2008, when the fucking world was ending.
What does it all mean?
Well, a thinking man would surmise that Wall Street is telling THE BEARDED CLAM to go fuck an exhaust pipe. Yields are rising, dramatically, as QE2 commences. Also, Ireland will need a bailout soon, else their drunk asses are going out.
On the other hand, POMO, QE2, TURKEY, CHINA, INDIA, NO INFLATION etc may save us all from damnation, which is why I am going very easy on the shorts and still hold a good amount of longs. Let me just say this: I have never been as bullish as I am right now, regarding the prospects of FTK. I may need to hold it for another 3-6 months, in order to see my $3+ price target. Or, I maybe the waiting period might just be a few weeks. Either way, the underlying fundamentals are smoking hot now. Those are the type of names that you want to buy on dips. I’m not saying FTK is for you. However, I am saying, keep a nice list of stocks that you want to buy on dips and wait for the opportunity to buy them. If we are lucky, we get a small dip from here to Turkey day, then springboard into X-mas.
NOTE: The PPT‘s new Raw Commodity Index is down 4.6% today. Hello Ben, we need more inflation!
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9ShFVUueME 616 500]UPDATE: I bought 10,000 FTK @ $2.60 and 50,000 WFR @ $13.00.
UPDATE: I bought another 10,000 SCO and sold half of my BORN position.
IMPORTANT QUESTION: Why does Yahoo give heavily coveted news credentials to SeekingAlpha, in their finance section? Those stupid bastards from SA are publishing one short story tale after another, by short sellers, targeting thinly traded stocks, for personal profit. I call bullshit on them and Yahoo.
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FIG
ROFL
a bond mkt crash would make the flash crash look like a grain of sand…its a debt problem..and its gonna explode..at some point…but it wont be tradeable..it will just happen…boom your dead.
Please excuse me, but reading your blog makes me a smarter citizen. You sir, have set the standard for internet excellence. And I know you do not even give a fuck about these internets, or me. May Ben fuck many exhaust pipes this weekend.
Cheers
China doesn’t like to pay over 4 for copper…what makes this time different?
strategic stockpiling.
Fly – so I don’t get it…why aren’t you using the PPT anymore? In August at 2.20 you weren’t getting long, and in November at 3.32 you weren’t getting short??? You’ve got a space machine, get in the damn thing and use it!
Maybe it’s the Irish in you – too stubborn – same here at times. Speaking of that, I need a drink.
I was all in long at 2.20.
I am 50% cash and hedging now. What more can I do?
I could be mistaken, but wasn’t 2.20 in August the beginning of the VXX disaster? And not to get picky, but the market was already down 4% when you started selling…I would have thought, at least, you’d been sitting 50% cash or more when you saw the all-time PPT high. I’m still new to using the thing, but I thought that’s how we are supposed to use it.
No, I had a very small VXX position. I was all in long TNA, FLS etc. I mucked up on the second overbought signal.
My mistake.
Here’s my proof
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/08/18/i-dont-care/
thanks fly. oil actually has some decent fundamentals now so it’s best to be cautious during next weeks inventory report.
FTK has gone parabolic. Should be a good short at your price target of 3.00.
Short?
That fucker will cut your homo’d Texad noggin off if you try. Go ahead, where’s your cattle?
Everybody and his brother in the Oil bidness are hiring like crazy but this company doesn’t show any openings….very strange….
Never bet against the turkey.
Indeud. Gobble, gobble.
Well this should finally end the “let’s buy the market it’s a POMO day” trade…so stupid in the first place…more down POMO days to come.
VXX up 4% in 3 days. Will be up 14% by Tuesday…
i own it. selling additional OTM calls on it monday. highly doubt VXX will ever get a solid run till 2011. but i hope you’re right.
This weekend has the feel of the Lehman brothers weekend from 2008.
Irish bailout?
QE blows up in Ben’s face
Chinese rate hike?
G-20 fist fight between China and the US?
Hard being long anything here. Sold some silver.
Should have shorted the metals. EU bailout of Ireland=a stronger dollar which will further pressure the metals and stocks IMO
Crazy day.
What would Patton do???
he would slap someone…of course.
I went from 50% to 100% short on November 4th (as called on here and stocktwits). Ive never jumped from 50 % to 100% in one trading day–ever.
That being said, Ive scaled back down to 50% swing short down here. Oil, the Dow , and NASDAQ are now deep into volume profile composite support. I still think we head down to Dow 8k. But it will be a stairstep, not a parabola. I don’t see a compelling reason to swing short , or long from here. Scalp intraday, or step aside.
Why the hell should we go down? Because YOU are short? (dicked)
I just said i scaled out half my damn shorts. I then said i wouldn’t swing short here. Did you even finish reading the whole post?
get some glasses there, tim seymour
http://i659.photobucket.com/albums/uu317/panamaorange/seperatedatbirth.jpg
Shouldn’t you be counting stupid megaphone patterns?
I search for all 100 of these chart patterns. in 5, 60 and daily timeframes of every index/sector etf/commodity —all day.
http://thepatternsite.com/visualcpindex.html
As of right now, SPX is actually below that quad megaphone resistance line again. But, i also use Volume profile charts, and intermarket analysis. I also use traditional moving averages and oscillators. Frankly, i use everything (except Elliot wave)
Can you name anyone else that doubled there short positions Near that top on November 4th through November 5th?
Doug ” 300% short” Kass doesn’t count.
Yahoo are the original spastic retards of the Internet. Why change what works?
Classic, good reading.
http://blog.games.yahoo.com/blog/160-man-drops-record-setting-335-000-on-virtual-game-property
HELLO NANNY STATE
Check out new cigarette cartons
http://www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/Labeling/CigaretteProductWarningLabels/default.htm
They should put that shit in the hooka bars.
http://www.oregonlive.com/health/index.ssf/2010/11/rising_hookah_smoking_trend_am.html
Those are too tame. You should see the shit they put on packs of smokes in Thailand. Mid-surgery tracheotomy pics, autopsy pics of lungs and heart, etc.
When they first came out there was a set of about 5. I went into the local jed-sepet (7-11) for a pack of Marlboros. Young lady behind the counter reaches up and grabs a pack with some dude blowing smoke into his baby’s face. I promptly stop her and ask for the autopsy pack. Reason being I already had the baby pack and was trying to round out a full collection.
Another good one is a close up of some rotted out nasty teeth. Favorite bar trick is to cut a small hole in the pack between a couple of gap teeth and put a lit cigarette there. Makes it look like the pack is smoking a cig.
I am easily amused.
This is what I speak of:
http://thailandlandofsmiles.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/picture-007_800x600.jpg
Canada’s had these smoke photo-warnings for years. The best one I’ve seen (not a cigarette smoker myself) is a pair of lady lips smoking a limp drooping cigarette. The caption “Smoking is a major cause of male impotence”. Or something very close to that.
Fly, Yahoo treats those stupid bastards at seeking alpha and the motely fool goofballs like they are credible news agencies.
I will be making a complaint to Yahoo this weekend for being an enabler and causing panic for allowing one jackass with no credentials to write a fiction story and all cause the lemmings to then jump off a cliff.
Until then, I will be enjoying a nice Chardonnay from Napa Valley.
Excuse my writing ability in the previous post. Terrible I know!
Quantitative Easing Explained…
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/11/video-quantitative-easing-explained.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k
“This is true, the plumber is smarter than the Ben Ber-NANK.”
ROFLMAO!!!
____________
When you call the plumber to fix something they usually fix it, not make it worse.
I hope that goes viral. Thanks for posting it.
Holy shit, from now on I am putting “the” in front of everything… a la “the Goldman Sachs”
Holy shit that is pure gold.
___________
Ohhhh Lawdy – I gots da deflation!
A metaphore for Keynesian economics: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hlJqz6-i_w&feature=related
When the wealth effect does infact create economic activity… You will all be thanking “the Bernank”
The video was terrific!