I couldn’t care less about today’s move. We can knife lower 300 and I will shrug it off like nothing happened. I am positioned, right or wrong, for a move lower. I am emotionally invested in seeing this market trade down. I know that is practically illegal when managing money on a professional level. But sometimes you have to go with your gut, not your eyes. This is one of those occasions for me. That doesn’t mean you should follow me or believe what I am saying. I’m just throwing it out there.
I’m not a big believer in gold; but will never bet against it in a big way. My sole short is AEM, based upon the idea that what goes up must come down, if only for a short while. I am long a big amount of VXX. It’s not a hedge any longer, really. Considering my longs now represent less than 25% of assets, my bias is definitely short. One important note about my VXX position: I do not need to see my cost basis of $23ish reached. It’s a losing position and it’s big. Because of its size, I am unable to add to it. Basically, I will likely sell the entirely of the position on a meaningful move up.
With regards to my TZA position: my basis is low $31’s. On any decent pullback, I will book profits and move on.
In short, I am not looking for some sort of fucked up 2008 tape, just a sharp correction, spearheaded by the easy come, easy go crowd. You know, I’m looking for a little elevator action, especially in tech. After that happens, I’ll be back to buying dips again.
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fig
“based upon the idea that what goes up must come down”
LMFAO
If Goldman Sachs didn’t fuck with eur/usd last night and buy it strong we could have had it today….screw them….so I must wait, and wait.
btw sorry I cussed in the post….GS is so lame when they give a headfake to the market by popping a currency…lol…just fustrates me.
Is there a cuss limit here?
no….lol…..Hey, did you notice both Germany and EMU missed PMI est…
Neat chapeau on the cover page pic.
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A lot being said that is not written in this post.
i caught that to
but a meaningful move up for vxx,would only mean a major move down in the indices,no.
This is gold…. from an article today (of course, MSM) promoting the joyous six month anniversary of Obamacare:
“We need to continue to focus on the strong elements of the bill,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “It’s very clear it’s taken some time to focus on the consumer rights and patient protections.”
Among benefits taking effect this week:
–Young adults can remain on their family’s health plan until they turn 26.
–Free immunizations for kids.
–Free preventive care, like mammograms and cholesterol screenings.
–No more lifetime coverage limits, and annual limits start to phase out.
–Plans can’t cancel coverage for people who get sick.
–No denial of coverage to kids with pre-existing health conditions.
Don’t you GET IT??? IT’s all Free! Free! Freeeeee!! hahahahahahahahahhaaaa!
Cue the Rainbows! Cue the spectral lights and the moorish fogs! Cue the “My Pretty Pony” theme song!
It’s FREEEEEEEEEE!!
What is not to like you dumb, dumb, sheeples??
_____________
It’s “free” or its the ovens, damn you!
Smiles! Smiles, Everyone!
________
I’d love to see Paladino spank Mr H.U.D., aka Andrew Cuomo, in the NY gubernatorial race.
Wouldn’t you have to agree that eliminating the pre-existing conditions clause is a good thing? Maybe not good business for the insurance company but very good for humanity.
Just because someone is unfortunate enough to get something that is considered a condition – should they never have the ability to obtain health coverage again?
I’d like to eliminate the pre-existing conditions clause from my fire insurance. Just wait until the house is on fire, then call the insurance agent and put on the binder. It could save a bunch of money.
Bullish — I’d like to eliminate a lot of bad things in life and make this a perfect world, but not at the expense of destroying an entire industry.
Forcing companies to do business with bad risks is not insurance, it’s a transfer payment from healthy people to sick people, and healthy people will just start to say “nfw.” Why pay high premiums at all if I don’t need to worry about it til I get in a jam anyway?
That kind of thing can be accomodated under it’s actual name — “charitable contributions.”
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All valid points, however try being self employed and have a child born with disabilities and then have the insurance company say – sorry you’re just fucked and there’s nothing you can do about it.
So now the self employed person has two choices:
1) Give up the American dream of being a self employed entrepreneur and go back to work for a large company that provides healthcare – (working for the man)
or
2) Hope you don’t go broke paying all the healthcare costs out of pocket while simutaneously paying rediculous amounts for the rest of their family’s “insurance”
There’s a problem with the system
Bullish, as others have mentioned, this is a unfortunate situation but the implementation of Obamacare would cause far more harm then it would “fix”. In you scenario a responsible citizen should take option 1. Lets face it, you had a kid while being self-employed in a situation where you dont have a surplus of free cashflow generation. Frankly, thats your fault. You can’t predict that your kid will be born sick/retarded/etc, but you can predict that kids in general cost a hell of a lot of money. If being self employed meant that much to you then you should have waited for when you were in a more secure position.
Or, just get health insurance before you decide to have a baby.
If he/she is sick then, the insurance picks it up!
A little planning, people!
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“…not at the expense of destroying an entire industry.” I’m totally cool with destroying that entire industry, screw em!
Granted, but you are probably also “totally cool” with cutting off both thumbs as a precautionary gesture.
When I say “industry” I’m not necessary talking about what we have. The bulk of what’s wrong with health insurance, however, can be neutralized by making policies individual and portable, and turning the payor system we’ve currently got iinto an actual insurance system again by doing away with “first dollar” payment coverage.
“Screw ’em” is not the answer when the only alternative is government assignation.
___
I’m cool with governement processing paperwork actually, that’s all the insurance industry does and they suck at it…
Who do you think pays for the uninsured now?
Hint: Check the price of a cotton swab billed to your insurance company the next time you need medical care. It’s the same thing – in reverse – transfer of billing from uninsured to insured. If the insurance industry can handle those inflated bills to help hospitals pay for the uninsured now they should be better off in the long run when all the uninsured are covered and get healthy from regular care. Just a potential thought on how/why mandatory health care might work after all. That should reduce Medicare expenses in the future as well, don’t you think?
No, because you are forgetting about supply.
The health care industry is not just about payors. In fact, if the payors were you and me, with only cat insurance as “real insurance” it would work a lot better than this behemoth idiocy.
The health care industry is about supply — ie, health care providers and demand — ie, us.
If you skew it so that supply cannot be compensated for its work you either end up with slavery or less supply, both are bad.
You want to be worked on in your nasty bits by a slave?
____________
Don’t you want to let the free market work – as demand grows and supply is pressed more students will see “Physician” as an obvious and secure career choice. Pay won’t be as good as it was but it beats being unemployed or working for the Chinese, no?
No matter how careful you are with lifestyle and diet, anyone reading this can end up with an injury. Even if it is minor and temporary–most insurance companies will blackball you , or charge obscene rates. I dont see why that should be allowed to go on forever. sprain an ankle, end up on the “red list” for life. It is that bad with most insurance companies. Especially, if you are self employed.
I agree with you & Bullish for the most part. Really don’t even have a problem paying for someone if they are just on “hard times” but the problem I have is paying for lazy asses that expect that it be given to them for free and for life. No system will ever make it perfect to walk that fine line and give to those that are truly in need.
Uh, if you eliminate the pre-existing conditions clause, no one will buy insurance until they need (expensive) medical care.
If no one buys insurance except people who need (expensive) medical care, the insurance companies will go bankrupt.
If the insurance companies go bankrupt, all we are left with is the state’s socialized medicine.
This isn’t really that complicated.
True, point taken.
Sorry, I didn’t see this before I typed my reply above. Blitzed is 100% on the money.
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I think that smokers and fatties should have to pay more for health care. And I’m a Canadian.
Sure, that’s actually fair. They have to pay more for life insurance, right?
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You guys are forgetting one thing. In the Obama plan, everyone MUST have insurance. You cannot just wait until you get sick to get it. Regardless of that, I say fuck insurance companies. They are simply the inverse of casinos. At least with a casino, you have a choice if you want to count cards to try and win more.
How about passing a law to give us free housing and food too? Everybody needs that stuff, and has a right to it!
Already exists – HUD housing and Food Stamps – only requirement is to be broke as shit
Yeah, but that’s called “welfare” not “insurance.”
There used to be some opprobrium attached to it. Not so much anymore.
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HUD subsidized housing is the worst program ever. I had 2 applicants for a rental house. One gal with 4 kids just left abusive husband. She could not get a certificate for 1.5 years. The other gal had a certificate, wanted to move and was a real slug of a person.
“Gal” ?? What are you, a hundred years old?
He’s from Canada. They talk funny up there. FYI, Chicagoans/Wis-CAN-sins/Michi-GAN-ders all say “gal” too.
Maybe Minnesota and N. Dakota as well.
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“FYI, Chicagoans/Wis-CAN-sins/Michi-GAN-ders all say “gal” too.”
Yeah, old ones.
The pileons in aapl amazn nflx et al. continue. Unbelievable. This market not goign down until aapl stops going up.
Thanks for making that so easy, even a hillbilly like myself could understand.
Back to catching fish with my bare hands. He haw!
Market is ever again going down. I don’t care what your tech/fundamental analysis tell you, it’s not going to happen. Market only goes up from here on…
I am about shoot my computer screens! Is this an indicator?
Indicates you are net short… or have made so much from this little run that you can buy ten more 🙂
Joe,
“Market is ever going down” – Fruedian slpi?
As I anal-gized earlier, we are in a technical market of chutes and ladders. Who cares what direction we go?
Love that avatar of the Pope MC’ing.
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Nothing wrong with being emotionally invested. It can work to your advantage. Yeah. Trading/managing money’s about earning a living, but the bigger draw above everything to me is that I wanna be right. Dead right. I’ve got a chip on my shoulder, and I get way more agitated when I make money than lose it, because my sense of vindication overwhelms me. fuck everyone who ever bet against me.
(my therapist told me I may have anger issues, but loves is when I pay her in cash)
Long live Generalissmo Fly
The Inception movie taught me that you can “militarize” your subconscious. So, i suppose you could “invest” your emotions.
there is a lot of wrong in being emotinal while shorting…..
Nothing wrong with a chip on the shoulder driving a person to work into the early hours of the morning.
You said Gold performs badly in October and yet my calendar tells me we are still in September. So why are you becoming all defensive on your position? Give it some time…now that everyone and their mother expect BB to print, print…
Frankly, I am sick to death of hearing you say the same shit over and over.
I am begging the stock Gods for a gosh darn correction so you can
GET YOUR FUCKING WAY,
and we can all move on to read about something else.
I think this is Fly’s blog and he says whatever he likes to say. If I don’t want to read I don’t come here.
You’re a kiss ass.
STFU
I don’t know Fly and I am not even a member here. Do you like a visitor cursing you at your place? I am sick of reading your fucking rude trash not ever at your blog site. If you are so great at making money by yourself then fucking off and cursing somewhere else. Hmmm I never used the “F” word before in my life not a good lesson to learn here.
fuckk off Flyaway
My comment was toward flyaway18 who accuse me “a kiss ass” because I thought he should not cursing you at your blog site. What’s wrong with that?
my bad. i corrected my insult.
WTF? if you are so “sick to death of hearing you say the same shit over and over” why are you even on this blog? Get over it, motherfucker, and move on yourself to another blog. And no I am not kissing Fly’s ass. This only of a handful of sites I read to get a perspective on the markets from different people with different trading styles. Move on !
Same here! I think flyaway18 was saying that to me. The hell with him (hmmm another English expression I am picking up…)
Hubbs- you don’t need to pick up vulgar language to be eloquent. In fact our host The Fly went profanity free for an extended time and was quite entertaining.
Fuck off Flyaway
The only one that speaks truthfully is Monsieur Le Fly in here.
this post is one of the most genuine, fluff lacking and from the hear. I applaud you.
Your nomme du blog is appropos.
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Puke time http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/09/puke-time.html
That guys is nothing but a slightly more erudite Karl Denninger-clone.
It’s all about how he’s right and everybody else can’t see the end of the world coming but him. Blinded by cynacism and an age old millenial bug like so many arrogant Timmahs before him.
Whatta douche.
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Agreed. I read one chapter of one of his post peak oil “books”. How he could actually sit down and write that without shooting himself is beyond me.
If I had a time machine, I’d send all of these clowns back to the past where they belong. Preferably to a past without vaccines, antibiotics, and electricity.
Seems like the market is now looking for a reason to sell off.
check your “seams” indicator
Finally got my move in SEED today, albeit all at once. They fucking own Lou Ferrigno style genetically enhanced corn patents in China, and it won’t make you deaf with a speech impediment (I think). With corn at sky high prices this was obviously going to be quick to get passed with a red stamp of approval. +15%
What did you say?
I can’t hear you
You see Lou in the movie I Love you Man?
Kind of an overlong SNL skit, but had some funny bits.
________
Yep. Still big. I thought the statue in his yard was a hilarious touch!
Yea.
If you have NFLX check out “The Art of the Steal.” It’s a fucking awesome documentary. I’m certain you are into them and this one is great. Never even knew it was like 20 minutes from where I live.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMe3r9PLtpI
I had read about this in the WSJ. I will definitley put it on the list. It’s got that evil gangster governor Ed Rendell in it, and I know he has got to be the bad guy.,
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TMoe sells a portion of his huge ISLN position
TMoe shorts LVS
TMoe shorts VNO
Shit! Why TMoe Why the fuck! I just went long LVS and you had to go short!
Ladies and gentlemen,
Buy the dip!!! oops.. it’s over…
back to the bull market.
Check this latest Congressional bee-ess out:
“I will say right now that I’m frustrated,” Senator Edward Kaufman, a Delaware Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, said on Wednesday.
“We have seen very little in the way of senior officer or boardroom-level prosecutions of the people on Wall Street who brought this country to the brink of financial ruin. Why is that?”
I tell you what, Senator Charlbox, you get Chuck the Schmuck out of Wall Street’s pockets long enough to bring Chris Dodd up on charges, and then we can talk about “prosecuting” some corrupt fuckers.
But watch your back, buddy, as you are just as likely to be wearing a number on it as they are.
_____________
Jake, Give Kaufman a break. He’s one of the more colorful members of the senate. He speaks his mind, and doesn’t give a shit about what others think about it. Since he’s filling in for Mr. Joe Biden, he won’t run for election.
I love it when he gets all wound up on CNBS and starts spouting. Very entertaining.
All democrat congress people from Delaware are colorful! Must be the tax free water
Weimar Germany Timeline:
Year 1922:
1.Bank interest rate still 5% as it was in 1914
2.Bank interest rate rises to 7% in August, 12% in November.
3.German stock market at 743 in January and rose to 8981 in December.
4.From 1914-1922, the stock market rose about 89x (from about 100 to 8900), the dollar rose 1525x and coal rose 1250x.
5.March 1922, 1400 marks per British pound.
6.The general price level over doubles in the first five months.
7.Average cost of living in April was increasing at about 50% per month.
How’s that for a stock market rally during hyperinflation? 743 to 8981 in one year.
Don’t forget stock prices are denominated in US Dollars. When you short the market you are effectively going long the US Dollar (aka Bernanke’s toilet paper) against a tangible asset, in other words something that has real value versus Bernanke’s worthless paper fresh off the printing press…
but the dollar has real value because you can buy shit with it…
waaaaaaaaaaaaaaat
also thats one killer rally.
the RUT is pretty close to that 743 #
The primary reason Germany did that was to print down the war debt from WWI. Once the shit started hitting the fan with rampant unemployment and million mark loafs of bread, the Bank of England and various US banks didn’t want communism to spread to Germany so they threw their weight in support of a fascist regime. So, the fascist staged and attack on the german capital (the Reichstag fire) in order to have their own patriot act to suspend the constitution in the name of homeland security.
A very interesting point in world history. Unfortunately it always repeats itself.
Don’t be a trout for brains. Those “fascists” were socialists just like your boy Stalin.
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Obviously you are unaware that fascism takes various forms, national socialism is just one variation.
But that’s OK. I’m sure the Universities in your personal history helped to make you the shining example of excellence that you are today.
Silly Eurolander — my point is they are all citizens fo the left — statist authoritarians. ANTI-liberty monsters like most you Euro-tards have become, even as you make your petty distinctions.
Nothing “right” about them in the ye old monarchist-Jacobin seating chart where the definition first was derived.
Learn history. “University” indeuuuud.
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I’m American. I view that point in Germany history as an era where the Bank of England needed to unravel the German Constitution to get more money and sponsored a criminal who burned the Reichstag in order to justify eliminating the german constitution with their own version of the patriot act, all in the name of homeland security.
“They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither safety nor liberty”. – Benjamin Franklin
Nucking Futs… all of it
Cramer coming out tonight and claiming AKAM NFLX and CRM are undervalued.
I only have one response to that
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7w64fbqYQY&feature=related
Standard & Poor’s analyst Scott Kessler today cut his rating on Akamai (AKAM) to Sell from Hold, after a 43% rally in the stock over the last 7 weeks. He contends the stock is now overvalued. “AKAM has appealing businesses and assets, but we note its recent expensive efforts to expand capabilities and add to its management team,” he writes. “Although we believe such investments make sense, they make nearer-term execution more challenging, in our view. Moreover, the recent stock appreciation and premium valuation multiples strongly suggest to us that expectations are quite elevated.”
He keeps his $40 target price.
AKAM is down $2.25, or 4.3%, to $50.16.
What if there is no dip , who isnt waiting for one. This is a bit remminiscent of September 09.
If there is no dip then i will perish
You can get a singing job in Times Square and call yourself the Naked Money Manager.
Just like the Naked Cowboy.
I read he makes 6 figures (probably tax free).
No you won’t…
You could always fall back on blogging….
BTW should 100 comments per blog post suggest a higher VIX? Just axing
Cramer is mentally ill.
He definately has some sort of mental illness.
He is bashing all the macro bears, demanding to know where the accountability is. I’ll say that one more time. Cramer, asking incredulously, where is the accountability.
I just got several emails begging me to come back to Realmoney.com for 50% off. I told the guy when Cramer dies I will happily rejoin at full price. Strangely I didnt get a response.
That’s because if they responded with news of their plot to kill him, there’d be a paper trail.
________
Cramer changed his tune way too abruptly. Although he has given his reasons, he knows something more than what he superficializes.
Or it could be the Cramer of March 2003. Anyone remember how stubbornly bearish he was just the day before the war broke and the market swung to the upside?
Or he is mentally ill.
Unfortunately I manage money for a group of viagra snorters and although I went Dirk Diggler on the Mkt Aug 31st, I’ve been goat fucked the last 6% of this move…fuk
Today is the first day of fall. Go look outside at the harvest moon. Here in the heart of indiana, life is good.
Bloomington?
Nashville (IN, not Boomer’s TN)?
Colombus?
Terrified Haute?
________
Hefty
Better to be gotaed than horsefucked.
Not nearly as painful.
Oh and fuck the Fed. Hope they get the US dollar shoved up their ass and they are forced to defend it which then brongs down the whole house of cards.
Full moon outside? That means we have a turning point. Since today was red, tomorrow will be way green!
Equinox-Full Moon won’t happen again to 2029 …. Must be some Lunar Super-cycle.
Mentally ill.
He also was saying bear would catch a bid one month before collapse
Cramer and Kudlow are irresponsible whores. I wonder how much cold hard dinero has been lost following these bozos impassioned pleas on “your actionable source of news, CNBC.” Billions of dollars of main street money lost. I wonder if any MM actually follow and act on them?
There should be a law – shouting fire in the theatre “run here; no run over here.”…oh no, that would be interfering with the individual’s right to get fucked. That’s show biz; certainly not business news.
They are both WITCHES!
Sure. Blame the bozos. I don’t think it’s all their fault.
It’s not my fault.
BUY,BUY,BUY
Bonds will rise. As will equities. And commodities. Only those who ignore the Fed will be surprised by this inconceivable turn of events. Oh, by the way. Watch gold and silver make new obnoxious highs. The market is inconceivable on many a level. Indeed. Dollar is decimated. This is the macro theme to watch. Not stupid recession not recession metrics. And please. I plead most earnestly. Don’t make a case for bonds going lower because of some monolithic SMA being breached on TBT, like some of our less-than-illustrious colleagues on financial news pontificate.
ABTD ABTD ABTD!!!
Anything But The Dollar!
That is all you need to know. Everything denominated in Dollars is going up as the Dollar melts down into oblivion. The Bearded Clam Fucker Bernanke has sealed our fate as a 3rd world hyperinflationary banana republic. End of story…
You do realize that this new republican “budget evisceration plan” is dollar bullish, don’t you? As is just about any geopolitical headline out of anywhere in the Mideast, or N Korea.
Sorry – he must have leaked out from the zero hedge zombie party.
I have no actual point here, other than to suggest that “The Bearded Clam” be incleuded [sic] in the IBC dictionary for 2010 as “n., Ben Bernanke”. I haven’t stopped grinning at the sight of that fucker’s name for three days.
all u know, and all u feel,and all you think ,, is a fuck wad of emotion, this will not help…..read the tape, some look to a savior who is not there,,,the truth will set u free,,,,some things r more important than money, dont miss the best part of life ,,,,
There’s a Lady who’s sure
All that glitters is gold
And she’s climbing a stairway to heaven
To jump out the window, the window….
Robert Plant’s got nothing on my lyrics, dammit.
But then, I’m so hood, I cain’t hep it.
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Chinese convert iTouch to iPod4 for $75 (US) … Apple may have a problem in China and elsewhere once this product get approval for export:
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/08/10/chinese-gadget-converts-ipod-touch-apple-iphone/
i am here only for a minute…i have paper work out the ass today ..i see you bears clawing at my acct…good luck with that…will have more time tomorrow
Fly this is my list of small requests to you:
1) stop being emotionally involved (forgive the cliche but this is about $ not egos),
2) have stops on your losing positions (yeah , yeah i know stop losses are for sillies and they don’t work; my view majority of times they don’t – until they do),
3) post less, trade/focus more (sorry for this one),
4) keep posting cause i have no idea how good your trading is but your writing/creativity skills keep me amused.
Thank you and Kind Regards.
yoos a pussy pants
!
jt, apply these recommendations to yourself, and then go and fuck yourself away from this fine estate.
Vehemently disagree with you number 3.
post more posty posts
fo get this im all sad its srious bisness nao hrmmm shit
I jush got intadishit – malllicker- izzapriiceadishshot gonna go up wisalll dese comandamies going up and da dolladown.
Dishit is tasteeeYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACH.
ohsweetlawdaAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACHAAAAAAAAAAAAAHERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.
that R fuckin went out of the box////
You should see where my puke went…
Thursday, today, a positive day, but NO new high for the rally, Friday 24 th, the reversal and then down hard the next weeks.
Trying to break the support line at 1131 SPX premarket
China halts ‘rare earth’ shipments to Japan: NYT
Could this affect the market in a big way?
china denies it:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39319496
Chinese convert iTouch to iPod4 for $75 (US) … Apple may have a problem in China and elsewhere once this product get approval for export:
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/08/10/chinese-gadget-converts-ipod-touch-apple-iphone/
OEW Daily Recap:
> After hitting an uptrend high yesterday at SPX 1149 the market pulled back into the close. Today that pullback continued as the SPX hit 1132 around 1:00. This pullback pushed the short term momentum indicator to its first oversold condition of the month. It is also the largest pullback, (17 SPX points), since the rally began at the end of August from SPX 1041. This pullback has not been enough yet to help us comfirm an end to the apparent five wave short term rally from SPX 1041 to SPX 1149. The short term momentum, at this point, suggests that it is just that. Should the SPX trade down to 1130 over the next day or so it would confirm that count. As posted yesterday, a breakdown through the OEW 1136 pivot range would suggest a potential test of the 1107 pivot in the days ahead. A breakout above the OEW 1146 pivot range would indicate a further extension. Remember, we are counting the current five wave rally as only Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave three. This uptrend should contain five Intermediate waves. We are only in the beginning of the third. <
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/?_c11_BlogPart_BlogPart=blogview&_c=BlogPart&partqs=amonth%3d9%26ayear%3d2010
You fuckers will get whats coming to you today
short term capital gains
LOL.
Trend down day coming? Nah, more like a drop on open followed by a grind higher.
LOL!
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Market seems goes down today.