Heading into “prime-time” hurricane season, the world is as hot as ever! As you readily know, hurricanes feed on warm waters, like zombies on brains. Every year, like clock-work, Senor Tropicana, aka “The Fly”, likes to delve into “hurricane plays” with the intention of profiting off human suffering and capitulation.
As karma would have it, more often than not these bets end up losing me money. But there is always next year, no? So here we are, preparing to rebuild Louisiana and large swaths of Florida again (time machine) and banking coin off gasoline disruptions throughout the United Steaks of America.
Very simply, I am buying refiners, via TSO and maybe DK later on. Also, in the event old natty supply gets “cut the fuck off,” I am long large amounts of SD and FTK, both suck dick and have fleeced me of large amounts of coin over the years. However, there’s always next year, no?
For now, I am content with my current “hurricane plays,” and will add to them as needed.
As an aside, into this rally, I doubled my GLW position, added to TSO, EWZ and BAC too.
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Do they have to be the Deacons? Please…not the Deacons.
So there I was, just inside the corner of the bermuda triangle south of Miami. The threat of tropical storm Bonnie looming over my head like an angel, I looked to the sky and said, “This is nothing more than a mere rain storm. My untimely end has been deferred. But this is only the dress rehearsal for something bigger, stronger, and much more aggressive, I can feel it”.
Sounds like some Pentecostal heavy metal band.
+1
+2
Paging Dr. Cane, Dr.Cane, please report to the OR…
What do you think about KV/B @ $2?
Rumored to be bought out by Qualitest
Bad idea. Here in Austin, Tx we haven’t had one 100+ degree day so far this summer. Normally we would have had 30 or more triple digit days by now. Heat is all north this year for some reason, so the gulf is probably unusually cooler than normal. It will be surprising if we get a big hurricane this season….but i’m a peon. Good day!
Yes, you are a peon.
This is forecast to be the busiest hurricane season ever. It’s not all about the weather in Texas.
Appreciate the civility, Pedro! Correct, it is not all about the weather in Texas, but the heat this summer has been relatively mild from southern Texas across to southern Mississippi (aka the region where the refineries and rigs are). Hurricane seasonal forecasts are generally HIGHLY accurate, so I will defer to your obviously superior knowledge.
Austin is 200mi inland, and is not representative of GoM sea surface temperatures.
Meanwhile, the NOAA says this is the warmest June on record for both land and ocean surface temps.
Anecdotal fail.
All that oil BP has pumped into the Gulf negates your warm ocean surface. Maybe?
And the corexit dispersant/oil neutrotoxin chemtrail planes negate sanity.
Check your facts Pedro. They have said that every year since Katrina. Remember that this was the same bunch predicting that it would rain oil. I can dig up the link, if you would like.
I checked my facts and they look the same:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week predicted one of the more active hurricane seasons on record, forecasting 14 to 23 named storms, with eight to 14 becoming hurricanes, nearly matching 2005’s record of 15.
The Gulf Coast may see a repeat of the 2005 season when a record 28 storms formed, which killed nearly 4,000 people and caused an estimated $130 billion in damages. The list included Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6513KG20100602
After this tropical storm Bonnie, I’m seeing blue skies for the first time in many months. The storm must have grounded some of the atmospheric chemtrail drones. It’s really kind of a nice reprieve to see the blue again.
I read that the oil is 140 degrees when it exits the sea floor… FWIW
Don’t be so modest, Fly. You cleaned up last year flipping TSO, WNR, and HOC.
i did indeud
Deacon.. Verb 6. To castrate a pig.
A word with many odd definitions
The Euro’s still have banks! Who would’ve thunk it?
i thinked it
Last year wasn’t exactly a “banner year” for hurricane season plays. How often does it really work as an investment theme?
Once every 10 years.
But there’s always next year, no?
Fly, out of curiosity (which killed the cat): as this seems to be a well-known seasonal pattern, don’t you think the refineries have already anticipated this by increasing raw stocks in advance, thus downplaying the possible effect of disruptions industry-wise?
No. The refiners have simply responded to the general market rebound. They are not pricing in a potential crack spread explosion.
Doubt it. Refiners are assclowns of the highest degree. But you can get lucky and roll them for some cashish every now and then. If not now, there’s always next year; no?
Do you dress up in costume every year when purchasing said TSO….
Maybe like Jimmy Buffet with white robe and sandals.
Heres to the days of UNG @ $44
As a matter of fact I do!
I wear white suits with white shoes, not so much different than the Fantasy Island guy.
Don’t forget about the white belt.
_____
or…
http://www.achievement.org/achievers/wol0/large/wol0-005.jpg
That’s a cream colored suit… much cooler… and “Suth’n.”
_______
We are between Easter and Labor Day so you should be good with that. Least that’s what the ex-wife told me years ago.
Yes, and white bucks too.
________
holy shit…. I bought UNG at 37.00 and sold it at 38.95 back in 2008 and was SO glad to get out from under that fucker (playing the damn hurricane season “gas disruption”)…. I have not touched that thing since.
I spit in the face of this market.
I really do.
This is not a healthy market.
Go long and prosper, but be hedged.
Let me guess… you are seeking the CO-2 extinguisher about now, hair all alight?
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Naw, i got lucky….after raping the last two days i went into today mostly flat but a little bit short. And then i sold some ES at 1100 in time to catch the 3:30 selloff.
I did lose .5% today, but I finish the week near my all time highs since the 85% meltdown debacle in May.
The closes today also demand that I go full retard long at the open on Monday morning. I won’t get into specifics, but the system I use has demanded that i Go long and prosper. Hoping the market opens down big Monday I hate to go long with the PPT where its at currently.
I told you i’m using a low-risk strategy now Jake Gint. I would go into the details, but its really quite boring and just designed to hopefully beat the indexes.
And to avoid major drawdowns, more importantly.
Huggie Dude – WTF do you think we’re here for? You’re a fine gentleman of the PPT. When you get a chance post your findings in the forum. I for one would greatly appreciate it. Thanks.
EEEEEHHHH BOO BOO
The pic-a-nic basket can be found inside the innner chamber.
Fly is your BAC purchase a trade or longer term play?
Wondering what you think of the warrants for long term accounts?
longer term. yes
BAC is a full of asshats and goat lickers, as are all banks. But, honestly, I think they’re the worst. And now that their overdraft windfalls are gone, they’re in the process of pissing off customers by charging for checking accounts. BAC will be printing Citi-like digits soon enough.
For my LT Acct I bot the A warrants due 2019 at a $13 strike for $7.25 ( BAC.WS.A )
blame it on the “car people”?
ha ha ha….’ol Macke revisited
http://wallstreetpit.com/4429-fast-moneys-jeff-macke-goes-mental
Purdy sold MON too Eardy.
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MON as in “The Devil”?
You wouldn’t say that if you had starving relative in India, like Mr. Bilderberg’s servant, Raj, does.
Insensitive!
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It’s RAG!! A pleb of the rag-proletariat!
Raj is tubing down the Ganges, sippin’ on a bloody Mary.
..checking stock prices on his $35 laptop.
Being true servants of the Empire, Indians (think dot, not feather) tend to favor a nice gin and tonic. Bombay Sapphire to be more exact. Indeud.
I was going for the double entendre. The Ganges is a floating cemetery.
Fly – A public thanks for the PPT. That’s it. Have a good weekend all.
Anyone else make a boat load this week???
Cheers
Wishing a great weekend to all
noodle says:
July 23, 2010 at 10:21 am
i think we’ll close the week at the highs, on NDX
weekly resistance is waiting to be tested.
Reply
*
noodle says:
July 23, 2010 at 10:21 am
like 1875 or sum shit.
Reply
EMS is also a good hurricane play per the CEO……well we took out 1097ish….this could be the start of short squeeze on a very oversold market.
Is this a whiff of bullishness from Nymph?!? Be still my foolish heart!
lol….it’s those darn China Iron Billet Spot prices….about 2 weeks ago they were starting to show a let up of the free fall they were on (along w/Spot Ore prices)….then this week they popped like crazy. It could be either 2 things….One we had the end of the Plum Rains w/ a major port being closed over the Oil Spill that caused a short squeeze pop….OR there is a start of real demand, wait, I have to stop laughing…ok, there is a start of a belief of the Matrix that there is real demand building caused by Nuclear Plants building money and Wind Mills needing to go up and low cost housing that has to be built in China. We still will probably sell off hafd in Sept but it is nice to have a moment to actually think about real stock picking, I really miss that a lot….stupid Shanghai copper bubble…lol.Thank you for your post, it really made me smile.
gentlemen i just started a position in FAS @ 21.99…. 1/4 position just for the hell of it
Bring back Harvard boy to blog about hurricanes.
And ask him to bring back his name that hurricane contest.
MIT boy…
White suit, white shoes, white belt. All sweet. Très suthren but the black socks are so friggn gay. Sorta kinda like NVDA and SNDK playing with each other.
Yes, there is always next year.
i am fucking happy !!!!! i will share my blissfulness with you…..i came to this site way back when the market was dropping like a rock and the main reason was to find out about the GE dividend …you see my mother owns large blocks of this as my father worked for GE and retired from there ( rest in peace dad ) …but she counted on this dividend just to pay her property taxes and for whatever…when GE stopped the divy …in order for her to keep her home i had to pay her taxes for her and i still do…so with the reinstatement of the divy ,i dont know if its going to be enough but its a nice start and i dont mind slipping her the rest ..so there you have it …im fuckn happy…. so happy i bought a little sumpn sumpn for myself and you know what that was
QUESTION:
The Peanut Gallery….is this the apprenticeship area for budding bloggers?
AND
Are You picking these folks from comments or people you know..or random findings?
Quick Response/Pick a number:
1 .all of the above
2. repaying favors
3. they work for free
4. wife’s family
5. Peanut Gallery?
Just asking
Yeah, the PG is like the minor leagues. People who do well there often move on to become “tabbed” bloggers (e.g., chessNwine).
Usually a few people are picked to fight over one spot, and then the mob decides the winner via “democratic elections.”
ahhh.. The MOB…
Those were the days.. Why I remember this one time…uhhmm…
THANKS for response
Are you related to Kream Gak Sum Yung Guy?
Fly – you add to positions yet PPT score is above 3? Why so little respect for you own device?
“there’s always next year, no?”
“there’s always next year, verdad (true)?”
Is it just me or is the investment enviroment improving?
1) Affluent shoppers are spending
2) Corp profits are very good
3) Euro no longer collapsing
4) Stress tests show Euro banks are in much better shape than previously perceived
5) GE raising div
6) Tons of cash on sidelines
7) Writedowns and bad loans are running off
8) M&A activity improving
9) IPOs are improving
10) Plenty of bearshitters out there still needing their nuts chopped off
I could go on and on but no one listens anyway…
Did I spell everything correctly Jake? Should I have double spaced between numbers? Placed a (.) after each point?
I will be relaxing with some fine vodka this evening… Indued.
i hear you…..you might want to notice pm london fix price for gold is @ 928.92euros….
its bullish in case your wondering
lets be clear about this up.gold went down so no worries about the euro.which is bullish to you?
correct gold went down ….and in europe where there was concern the banks might be having problems ,this seems bullish to me..so in easy to understand words>>>the doom and gloom is over
uh…no.
Someone’s not been paying very close attention.
—
All we need now is some Jobs!
Be sure to watch my new movie
coming soon ..called i
told u so.
With Dean Martin?
No im having little jimmy dikens..
I like the way he stomps his boots
While he sings on hee haw 🙂
Jt
It is not oversold. Who said it was?
Trading_Nymph says:
July 23, 2010 at 4:14 pm
EMS is also a good hurricane play per the CEO……well we took out 1097ish….this could be the start of short squeeze on a very oversold market.
I’m using T Theory ala Terry Laundry analysis, not PPT on my oversold comment. I should have indicated that as my source.
Fly i am saying its above 3 (3.12) to be exact; so its OB not OS. I am just asking if there are any reasons to have a bullish bias despite the high # thats all?
Ppt members
Does it say overbought on the overall indicator? Does it say oversold on the inverse etfs?
it does. IT DOES!!!
wait, no, it doesn’t.
it does not señor.
I was gonna short the close but knew Monday could always be a strong open, and the PPT is always early by a few days…in any rally from here I’ll start letting longs go, but not shorting…yet.
Jt
While it is true, over 3.00 is cause for alarm, it is not fully ob. It has to be 3.10 with 75% of stocks ranked buy. Right now we are at 70.
Please remember i have 18 percent in vxx and cash. And i am ready to sell 30% at a drop of a hat.
PPT says party on till the music stops
I see. Thanks for the clarification Fly.
If you’re not on the inside, you’re on the outside. You had what it took to get in here, do you have what it takes to stay.
The EU was saved by the BMF, a subsidiary of the IMF.
My spidey senses are tingling…set-up
we shall see
long live ppt! thanks to all, fly, and jeremy…for another badass week.
Hey, I’ve stopped reading ZH and started reading the PPT. Now I’m making money again. Thanks, Fly!
Bond market signaling recession…
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204078204575377350577241056.html?mod=googlenews_barrons
Get ready for Great Depression II… Market is going to CRASH!!!
This guy’s model says market goes down hard next week. That is same as what the PPT says too. So time to go short with maximum leverage Monday!
http://tidallyspeaking.blogspot.com/2010/07/tidal-trend-update-and-spx-projection.html
I’m selling all my longs in this phony melt up. Who kidding who. You just can’t believe anything coming out of wallstreet.
Gordon, is that you?!! I thought you’d be released from prison on September 24th.
.
There’s nothing funny about this melt up… It’s called global healing
I’m out early pal..
Im back to show you smucks how to really do it..money never sleeps 🙂