iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,398 Blog Posts

You’re Not Really Winning

One of my vices is seeing the worst in people. Some of you southern rednecks offer pecan pies to your neighbors; I scowl at them. I know a lot of traders and investors. Most of them suck. I am not taking a high road approach here, believe you me. I’ve had plenty of off days and as a result lost millions in the process. What I am talking about is a psychological defect that makes a person trade like an ignoramus.

I am up 22% in my ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] position inside of one week. What have you done lately?

See pal, it’s not about the quantity of the trades, but quality.

Noble men of the internet, do not give into the flashy advertisements of the online discount houses, encouraging you to excessively trade your piker accounts into oblivion. Think before you act and walk with purpose. Who likes to hang out with people who can’t speak clearly? I hear you mumbling; but I have no idea what the hell you are saying.

Add luster to your reputation, by way of monster wins. Legends are born through epic wins, not a series of practical jokes.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] reports after the bell and they will destroy earnings estimates. However, will that make the stock trade higher or sell off on news? If you had a game plan and proper asset allocation strategy that would not matter to you. My point is this, very simply: the market is not the gamble that the idiot poker experts tell you it is. Certain companies do well because of innovation and good management. Being able to identify trends and consumer behavior will punch the teeth out of any technician, any day, any time.

The dollar traded up today, yet the market went up too. My best guess is that we are close to the top of the trading range, for the near term. I am not talking about “The Summit,” which will lead to a mind numbing collapse. All I am looking for is a 3% sell-off, so that I can go “all-in” for the ultimate move up to 10,500, where I will tell my detractors to stick it where the sun doesn’t shine, or does; it makes no difference to me.

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39 comments

  1. The V.King

    Epic…like my blog

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  2. JR

    Fly is Sui Generis

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  3. Mr. President

    GMCR has a huge short position. This could be interesting.

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  4. TraderCaddy

    Here I sit on the couch waiting for earnings and watching ModernWarfare 2 that my son picked up today after the second round of his golf tournament.
    Interesting video game.

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  5. T MOE

    Is it just me or is GMCR getting ass raped!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nice call Fly

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    • The Fly

      If you paid attention, you’d know I have no position.

      This is perfect. I will buy this dip. They are guiding up.

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      • T MOE

        Raped after blowing out numbers???????
        Sales increase 65% Net Income up 103% and they guide higher!!
        Buying this dip is not a bad idea. I think I may take part

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        • The Fly

          That is my point. Had you bought before numbers, betting the ranch, you would have no arms now.

          However, with a little patience, you could have entered in at $64-65 a few minutes ago.

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    • Mr. President

      “However, will that make the stock trade higher or sell off on news?”
      What was The Fly’s call?

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  6. ZOILA

    picked up some GMCR at 65.

    Asshole dip buyers are rich muther fukkers this year

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    • The Fly

      There you go

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      • T MOE

        It’s Not often that I go long names that I know nothing about, but after re-reading your posts last week and reading about the sales of their K cup shit ( you must really have a fucking time machine) and doing a little research of my own, I couldn’t help myself, I jumped on board and bought a few hundred shares at 66.20.
        Drink some coffee mother fuckers

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        • punyandy

          You have no clue what the fuck you are doing.

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          • The Fly

            Easy on Moe. He has had a tough week

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          • T MOE

            True, thanks Fly — – -. Puny — fuck off — Go back to watching Cramer and your shitty scottrade account and play your bullshit buy and hold game.
            What are some of your trades?? Let us in on what you, “MR Know it ALL” are doing? I am the first one to come out and say when I made a bad trade and lost money. Like I said earlier I take small losses often, but make up for it by catching the big gain.
            I know exactly what I am doing, making a quick trade to bank some coin with thanks going to Fly’s time machine. Calculated risk. Still sitting on a nice cash position so I’m comfortable rolling the dice every now and then.

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          • punyandy

            Sounds like you need a copy of “Getting Back to Even.”

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        • The Fly

          LOL.

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  7. carson

    rightfully said.

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  8. ZOILA

    I could not look a gift horse in the mouth with a straight face and sold my 675 shares at 70.

    I am a pussy you know.

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  9. ZOILA

    I’ll send you a few dozen K-Cups 🙂

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  10. T MOE

    “A crisis of unprecedented proportions is approaching” in the U.S. commercial real-estate market, according to Randall Zisler, chief executive officer of Zisler Capital Partners LLC.

    Property prices have fallen by 30 percent to 50 percent from their peaks, Zisler estimated yesterday in a report. The plunge has wiped out the equity in most real-estate deals that relied on debt financing since 2005, he wrote.

    Zisler, whose firm focuses on real-estate investment, estimated that building owners will default on $500 billion to $750 billion of mortgage debt. This equals as much as 54 percent of the $1.4 trillion in loans that will come due in four years, by his count.

    “Much of the debt is likely worth about 50 percent of par, or less,” the report said. Many banks will end up insolvent as they reduce the value of their holdings…”

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    • Braveflaps

      Do CRE losses even matter anymore with this new extend and pretend deal just announced? The banks will carry these BS loans for years at full value as long as firms keep servicing interest payments.

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  11. T MOE

    Looks like someone knew what was coming!

    3Com Corp. call-option trading was
    the highest since September 2007 today before Hewlett-Packard
    Co. said it would buy the company.
    More than 8,000 contracts changed hands, 17 times the four-
    week average. The most-active were options giving the right to
    buy 3Com shares for $5 through Nov. 20, followed by December $5
    calls. The stock rose 5.2 percent, the most since Sept. 28, to
    $5.68 as of 4 p.m. in New York.

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    • SEC Agent

      17x That’s within the norms we would expect. Nothing to look into there.

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  12. Sammy "Jacko" Sossa
    Sammy "Jacko" Sossa

    I’m going to buy Michael Jackson’s estate and move in to the treehouse.

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  13. Hammy

    I’m interested to see if Corning will finally break out this time. It’s been a while.

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  14. Freddy Fishsticks

    “Ignoramus”…last time I read that, it was in a 600 page Benjamin Graham bible.

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  15. Kiwin

    FYI: Just under the title of the entry it says: “Wednesday, November 11, 2009 at at 3:50 pm”

    You have two at’s there. Get your greasy gravy loving guru on this, stat.

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  16. The_Real_Hmmm

    As I said before, OSK is one fucking awesome stock right here. It’s as if DMX is the account manager for the US Army. ANOTHER huge order today, $438M. This has been one of my favorites since I started noticing them picking up huge orders a few months ago from Barack “I’ll pull the troops out” Obama.

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  17. SteveTheNeighbor

    Hi Neighbor. Please thank Mrs. Fly for the pecan pie. We had it after dinner and Mrs. Steve would like the recipe. It must have been a New York style pecan pie because of the Papaya King hot dog slices on top.

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  18. arch

    of course im winning in a winmanship fashion …my fancy bankers watch has been adjusted to the milli second.. my FAS is still being held ..i did buy some in the morning sold some also

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  19. Mr. President

    But TITN now, in the 10’s. If you are not able to sell it, within 1 year, at double your cost, I will gladly buy each share from you at that time.

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  20. Purdy

    Excellent post.

    “…the market is not the gamble that the idiot poker experts tell you it is. Certain companies do well because of innovation and good management.”

    The above is true, but less true than it once was. Americans are creative and crank out new tech like nobody else …but if you’d bet on responsible, well-managed banks and insurance companies (e.g., Warren Buffett) taking over the irresponsible banks and insurers, you would have been screwed.

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  21. No One

    I wouldn’t trust the 50dma so much.
    And smoking is bad.

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