I have friends in the mortgage business with loans coming out of their ears. Anyone with a Fico score of 620 and better is qualifying for sub 6% loans, providing they monkey up to the table with 20% down. Case in point: have a gander at Toll Brothers, Inc. [[TOL]] today.
Ladies and Gentleman of the internet, do yourself a favor and buy a house.
Don’t believe me?
Take a look at the Case-Shiller Metro Housing shares up [[UMM]] :
This ETF tracks the actual value of homes in NY, Boston, Dallas, Tampa, Miami, LA, Phoenix, etc. Basically, it tracks the value of homes in big cities aka “the only place that counts.”
Now ask yourself, punk: are ya’ feelin’ lucky?
Do not misconstrue my 60% cash position for bearishness. I told you once and I will say it again: this is a LONG ONLY market. Failure to adhere to these laws of reason will result in me buying your house in foreclose.
Don’t get me wrong, with the positions that I still hold, mainly foreign stocks, I am doing quite well. CGG Veritas (ADR) [[CGV]] , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] , Mechel OAO (ADR) [[MTL]] , Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] , [[CBD]] , [[MWW]] , Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Ciena Corporation [[CIEN]] , Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] and Aracruz Celulose SA (ADR) [[ARA]] all look good to me. While it’s true, many of the stocks above represent “watered down” positions, considering that I sold the lionshare of my holdings. Nevertheless, I am still participating in the rally, just not with my balls on the kitchen table while speed chopping carrots.
Bottom line: What’s your cash position?
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Mr. Fly,
Any thoughts on TITN as a semi-long-term value play?
pass
I hit the FAZ buy right on the nuts this morning – $18.20 to $18.30 Now trading over 19.
Sell it at 21.50 within a week.
Dear Le Fly
2009 YTD Returns by Country
The “foreign markets are cool” trade is on – however your favorite, France, was not at the top. Ahem.
http://is.gd/4SJRy
BRIC countries 70-126%
US middle of the pack.
Very treu…my region had a goal of $1B volume for 2009…hit it in October…Get in the JEEP!
20% down? nah…you can get the same low rate w/ 5% down (10% in declining markets) on purchases. 3.5% on FHA. Free money.
I will know the housing market is back when no doc loans (liar loans) are back in vogue.
Sheeeeeeeyyyyyyyyyyyiiiiitt… Madonna will be ‘vogue-ing’ before you see those again.
20% + cash position & increasing.
90% cash…other 10% in various egregious option plays…
20% and bored to tears
“The Housing Crisis is Over” – – – — HA Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha ROTFLMAO Ha Ha Ha
U.S. Foreclosure Activity Sets New Quarterly Record, Up 23 Percent From Q3 2008
The Fly and Cramer — New Best Friends
Yes, Cramer and I are best friends.
I heard on the radio that 70% of the single family homes that closed last month in Central Florida were foreclosures or short sales.
As an aside who knew what a short sale was before the housing blow up?
http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/12/real_estate/foreclosures_falling/index.htm
What’s going on with FTK? should we stay or should we go?
Those losers were so damn interested in my proxy vote that they sent a postage paid UPS overnight label and followed up with a phone call the next day. I told the lady that they might not be nearing bankruptcy if they didn’t spend all of their money harassing people about proxy votes.
OK,
I’ll take the other side of the TOL trade.
TMoe gets short TOL at 21.60
Tried to get short the entire space via shorting XHB but I could not get a borrow. This move in TOL is a fantasy ride
how do u still have $$?
I am not an idiot. After getting my ass kicked really hard I got out of the way of the train. Yes I have taken numerous losses in this rally. I will take a lot of small losses along the way to catching the big gain.
I also have made a few good trades on select longs. I bought an ass load of GLD last November at 75. I have been selling a little the past few days. Same with TIP that I bought last year. Same with HYG. And my recent short of APOL worked like a dream.
I am not to proud to cover and run and wait until the fools get sucked in.
Oh and I banked much coin on my trade of TTI. As I posted on this board, bought an ass load Monday at open at 10.29 and sold today at 11.51
Try a short of ITB.
All homies and no HD or Lowes.
FTK recs will be my proxy to belly up to the pay side.
Hmmmmmm……
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/drhousing/2009/1109.html
Not to worry,,,,,
CRE looking solid, eh?
“If the banks had to take that hit all at once, there wouldn’t be any banks,” he says.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey111009.html
Indeed!
Let’s see …. 60% trading acct and 75% long term acct
Housing prices will not recover until the glut of homes is cleared out. This is not likely to happen any time soon. Housing prices are up slightly for the time being because of 1) opportunistic bottom feeding by prudent hold-outs and scavenging cash-rich speculators, and 2) the first-time homebuyer’s credit.
Don’t mistake what you’re seeing in the case-shiller chart for a return to business as usual. There is still a huge oversupply of houses out there and there’s no reasonable expecatation that it will be reduced to normal levels anytime soon. At least this is what the calm, irritatingly-reasonable monotone over at CalculatedRisk reminds me on a daily basis.
shut up.
None of those guys can hold a candle to me. NONE OF THOSE GUYS make money in the markets.
What are we a bunch of poor philosophers?
Have a nice Veteran’s Day Hawkeye Pierce.
And thanks for your service in Korea.
Take a look at XHB holdings and tell me the housing crisis is over. A fool and his money are soon parted.
Bottom line — whats your cash position?
50%
Oh I can’t wait to see the shit that the TOL CFO spews in a few mins on CNBC.
It just goes to show how disjointed the housing market is… To have a 620 fico and still get sub 6% loan is nuts.. And dont tell me the 20% should be considered. BS, the interest rate does not reflect the risk.. The mortgage industry has changed for the “sucker who buys the paper” If the banks had to hold that crap the loan would never have materialized..
How many 620 fico’s have 20% any who..
I keep seeing that chart of future foreclosures – another big wave coming – it is just the subprime stuff that is mostly over – the ARM loans and others make 2010 and 2011 look bad. I want Obama to give me a house and car – the dumb fuck.
anybody puts 20% down is an idiot
While waiting for Oliver Stone’s “Wall Street 2” and Michael Moore’s movies to come out on DVD, I found a movie about stock market corruption called “Stock Shock.”
It exposes and explains some more common stock market corruption. Spotlights “naked short selling” and gives a good insight to how our stock markets are engineered. On DVD only (of course). Amazon.com has it and stockshockmovie.com
Anyone who cares ..sold my house in Sept. Guy had to have 20% down 5 year work contract {doctor} he had to go to 5 banks to get money. I watch certain markets in CA and AZ . No way it is comming back . Now when I was in Chicago Title I asked them if they see the Obama bump tax credit. They laughed got cynical towards the O man. She said they are holding back all the foreclosures, she looked worried. Hope this post helps some one . True story. Bob Toll he is selling stock !!
One more thing…The Fly who lives high upon the hill. Merely guessing at what the lowly trading toads are doing .
Fly can I ride in one of your Bentleys?
Housing crisses over , where do you live D.C