We’re in the midst of a down leg and it feels like the world is about to end. It’s always so damn hard to sell at the top and buy at the bottom. That’s why you are supposed to raise cash when times are good, in order to buy when things are bad.
Despite the market cracking lower here, I am in no rush to buy more stock. As a matter of fact, had I exercised a little more caution, I would not be “enjoying” the broken elevator action in both Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] and Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] . Nevertheless, this is exactly what the dip buyers have been begging for, a damn dip.
I have a short list of stocks on my buy list, including Corning Incorporated [[GLW]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Ciena Corporation [[CIEN]] , Aracruz Celulose SA (ADR) [[ARA]] , Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] , TEKELEC [[TKLC]] , IAC/InterActiveCorp [[IACI]] and [[MWW]] .
Essentially, if you are going to play this game correctly, you must stick to a thesis and a strategy. At the moment, my strategy is long only, focused on Foreign and Technology stocks, with trading exposure into the commodity space. In addition, due to the recent market run, I have made it a point to hold a 20%+ cash position, at all times.
I will begin relinquishing such said cash as soon as The PPT gets into the 2.20’s, which should be shortly.
NOTE: Consumer staples are very strong, check Colgate-Palmolive Company [[CL]] , The Clorox Company [[CLX]] , Church & Dwight Co., Inc. [[CHD]] and The Procter & Gamble Company [[PG]] .
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Greetings Fly,
When is that “instant” PPT score going to be live?
-Panda Bear
Never I hope.
Cough up a few bucks, become a Gentleman, and then the PPT score will be yours to enjoy everyday.
Smallcaps absolutely being beheaded. My god.
Just bought 10,000 IOC @ 45.60
how about FTK? buy now?
better names on sale
Like DRYS ?
fucking bloody hell….
carry on.
Fly getting his ass kicked. Only the beginning. S&P 150.
Oh Hi Dog.
Where the hell have you been since March?
The prodigal bears are all making there way back to the site, as miserable as always. This is very funny.
Moe
Dog
Generational Bottom, ( was bullish all through 08 and then went bearish when it was time to be bullish in March).
No, Gen Bottom is an ass, but he hasn’t been bearish.
__
You are as FULL OF SHIT as a Christamas Turkey. I called the Generational; Bottom Nov 26
2008 and posted it here with my stock list, based on the fact there were fewer daily new lows despite
a new Dow Low. The March 6-9 2009 index low was not a MARKET low, because good stocks stayed above their 2008 lows. I was all in from November on.
I stayed bullish until late September, when I sold about half my longs.
I’ll go on record again: A short-term LOW will be made Monday or Tuesday, because that is 8 trading days after the October high; and the October period is a duplicate of September- a dip on the first coup[le of trading days; 14 days of rally, then an 8-day selloff.
The Sept dip was 8-31 thru 9-02; rally 9-03 to 9-22. The early October dip was 9-30 to 10-2, and the October rally topped out on 10-19. PRINT THIS OUT, asshole, so you won’t have to lie next time.
I know you are not talking to me, you crusty old douche.
Nevertheless, watch your tone, or I’ll have you hurled off a precipice, Ancient-Sparta-style.
______
My tone is E-flat. After the admonishment, I shall adjust that to B-sharp.
Mr. DD
Have you checked out my Peanut gallery blog yet? Which girl do you think is the hottest?
Buy IOC
Definitely Michelle (MonkeyFace) O’Bama in that Little Mermaid get-up.
fifd
Observe the death of NOV. I do believe I’m up 10% on that position now.
You could have shorted any stock in the commodity space and be up at least 10% right now
Sure, but this is the only one I care about.
Fly loses even more when he appears to be losing only a litlle….
Shorting small amounts of puts in DRYS and ACI – basically getting back what I let go last week
Put premiums are getting sweet again
Expectation of a bounce soon even as early as today
DEVILDOG !!!!!!
You know he is getting his ass kicked
WHEN HE DOES NOT WANT TO TALK ABOUT:………… FTK !!!!!!!,
what else !!
Have a beer !!!
Momo
Don’t forget KFT.
Shorting egregious amounts of RIMM ..Tim Knight would be proud.
Fly,
Do you like any Soros holdings?
Interoil (IOC)
Headwaters (HW)
PetroBasiliero (PBR) 5%+
Hess (HES) 5%+
convertible bonds in RF Micro Devices (RFMD), LSI, and Linear Tech (LLTC).
Fly, what do you think of Boeing here? I believe the new plane might actually fly by the end of the year. 6th time the charm. The PPT hybrid is 2.14
JJJsix:
I sold out of that at 51.50 ish when those schleps at morgan stanley came out and revised their price target down to $43 because they didn’t think the bird will fly in 09 and that demand for other planes is weak. The report scared the shit outta me and I sold out.
Here’s what i’m looking to do. I will buy the stock off 43 or a bit higher, or I will buy the stock into strength even if it’s over 50 bucks as long as the bird flies this year.
I’m the resident boeing expert around here 🙂
GDP numbers in the morning. If we come in lite, look out. Strong we should go higher. But I get a sense, if we come in strong the market will still sell off.
Sell the news.
My GRMN getting Clown Raped
Everything except the fear stock are getting clown raped
A nice ‘Flush’ sound is going on – everyone heading for the exits at once
at least it has not fallen into the catagory of Ape Raped.
that will be another 10% from here…
GRMN can’t compete with FREE Google GPS system:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/29/technology/companies/29gps.html?hp
Goddam, this move down looks real. Fuckit, giving up on my longs, throwing in some commodities shorts over the next few days.
I think you nailed the bottom. Nice call.
Don’t be an asshole, we’re at the precipice.
Sorry, not trying to be. It’s like Alpha’s Costanza trade. When you think the world is falling apart the market bottoms. Or, on the other hand, it completely falls apart. I just don’t think the other hand is here yet. That’s all.
BTW just before you posted I purchased some EQIX at 88.00. It promptly fell to 87.32, back to 88.35.
Thank God, my two largest positions are actually up today. Sort of makes me uncomfortable.
I’m one for two, with UPS up over 40 cent right now.
Gives me mind that the Transports are leading yet again.
_____
JG, did you get yourself some RWM this morning? A move over $49 will allow me to put a stop on half the position at $49ish and a stop on the other half of the position at break-even. That way I won’t lose my position completely on a head fake below $49.
fifd
I didn’t but I did note your win. That thing is turtle-headed right over the trend line.
______
Your traffic is down 20% because Scum Bucket Bitchez hasn’t been popping in here every two seconds. Instant karma as Fonzi “gonna give it all back” Fly rides the broken elevator straight into Hell’s Kitchen.
Don’t worry about his traffic…now that i’m blogging he will soon be up like 600% or something like that.
Mr. Bucket how hot is that girls ass?
BTW, Golden Gay-Man-Skanks will be joining you shortly.
We went at least three legs up, so we should have at the least two legs down…I still think stocks are priced way to high for this economy. We need another 4 weeks of down days to be correct here…This is just my common sense talking..but fly you are the expert, i’m just the little guy.
You ain’t gonna get it. Buy coal, gold, and steel stocks TODAY.
At least buy SOMETHING today.
Agreud. Esp. coal.
__
I bought NOV today.
The Moober Vintage Les Paul Assistance Fund is a good place to start. Ticker: BOOM
Wow, the losers in burlap shirts are really coming out of the woodwook screaming ‘I told you so’ at the Fly
We’ll see who was right in the fullness of time (or by 4:00 PM).
I was early with my call yesterday, but I believe we are at the bottom today. I say to buy the IOC. I borrowed that idea from this blog and thank Fly for it. Nice job Fly!
As I already posted on Twitter, I ordered my NOV shares covered. I’ll analyze the position later tonight or tomorrow.
The PPT will hit 2.20 when the SPY dips just below 104. You don’t need a fancy calculator to know this. Look at the stupid chart.
The question is whether we’ll break below that point of support or not. I doubt the PPT has much to say about this, so it’s about as useful as trading based on the colour of the boogers I pick from my nose (dark brown means sell!!)
Trading is such a fucking boring exercise in risk management… the only way you can do this for a living is if you delude yourself into believing that your recent run of good luck is somehow owed to your magical market prediction abilities.
Ouch, Getting my ass kicked on ARA today. Lost half of my ‘hard earned’ gain in one fucking day and I am out of it and everything commodity/reflation trade.
Not brave enough to short here (at least not in size) but I am shorting on a very small scale via SRS, FXP and FAS and DRV puts.
DDog still preaching SP 150. Get a grip dude. SP 150 would mean that we live in caves and barter and shit. It ain’t happening. We will just hyper inflate the shit out of everything until something comes along to pull us out of this idiocy that the greedy bankers got us into. Contenders: alternative energy, nanotech, biotech…who knows, something will come along, you just watch. And FUCK all those idiots who claim that china will dictate how thew world goes about its business. china will never amount to more than a large shithole with trillions of people living in it. Good old USA will be the superpower FOREVER and deservedly so. What other country in the world allows for a free flow of ideas and embraces new technologies/paradigms better then USA? That’s right, there’s not even a close second.
“Americans will do the right thing after exploring all other alternatives” Who said that?
I would say we are still in the process of ‘exploring other alternatives’ and I am sorely disappointed in our fearless leader, Obama, but I am. To gloating die-hard republicans; not nearly as disappointed as when we had a shit for brain bush leading our country.
There is no set up/trade here so the best thing to do is nothing. Wait for a trade to come to you. The only trade ‘reflation’ that has been developing for the last few months is in question right now so wait to see which way this cookie crumbles before committing significant funds in ither direction.I am hoping to load up with oodles of gold at ~$830-850.
All TKnight bashing here… is not justified either. He has stop loses in place so he lost very little money. He made none however, which is far better that being heavy short like DDog and such. I do agree with most bashers here that its insane to have all those positions. I try to limit myslef to max of 4-5 positions with one of them being the main position, making up 50-90% of the trade. Who the fuck can keep up with all those positions?
Cheerio
I believe the quote was “Americans can be counted on to do the right thing after exhausting all possible alternatives”. By Sir Winston Churchill.
I never knew ol’ Winston but I feel confident in saying that you, sir, are no Winston Churchill.
fifd
I never said nor insinuated that I was or that I would I want to be him.
I can tell you however that you ‘sir’ are, beyond a shadow of the doubt, an unintelligent, impoverished prick!
add this to my prior post: $ is WAY oversold and I expect a rally to take it to ~.81-.84 which would really obliterate the reflation trade for a while. Don’t despair though, new stimulus plan will be announced and the reflation trade will be back on. The FED wants it and they will get it
Is that all our bearish contributors, then?
Have we missed anyone?
__
I think most of you know that if I were trading regularly I’d have already sold into the strength and would be preparing myself for buying into the weakness. However, that is not what is happening. Instead, I am a weekly buy and hold kinda guy. In fact, I haven’t sold anything in over six months. For the next twelve months I will continue the buy and hold strategy on assorted lots of quality. There are personal reasons for this. I’ve been doing this since S&P 666 (In honor of you good folks having averted the apocalyptic Doom and gloom of last year). Any estimates on when DOW 15,000 is coming? I hope not until I’ve accumulated more.
Sincerely,
Your Illuminati Captain