Every once in awhile, it’s important to let your enemy win, in order to vanquish him later. I’ve learned, it makes for good sport and keeps the illusion of realism vibrant.
Today’s decline is legitimate. We will likely close down triple digits, sending our cavemen friends into a mental state of apocalyptic nirvana. The blockheaded bear bloggers will post articles, declaring some sort of oddball occurrence in the galaxy, that coincides with today’s sell off, promising a great deal of carnage to come. In reality, boys and girls, it’s just a sell-off: or, like we call it, “A Charitable Donation.”
My plans of $100 rolls are still scheduled for sometime early next week, with my new friend Mr. Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] . And, I will buy all dips in Corning Incorporated [[GLW]] , ADTRAN, Inc. [[ADTN]] , TEKELEC [[TKLC]] and [[MWW]] , as stipulated in my contractual agreement with the Gods.
My advice to you: keep about 10-15% of cash on the sidelines, in the event today’s sell off spills over into Monday. Have a suitable watchlist prepared, so you may act quickly upon your instincts. And, finally, go eat a sandwich and stop thinking about the amount of money you are losing today. Remember, this game is all about patience and “calculatory” victories. Do not move your head when pistol whipped. Instead, stand there and take it like a man. After he is finished, take his pistol from his claws and bury him with it.
NOTE: Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] is holding up well. Odd, no?
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Fly, what does it mean to you when stocks drop easier than they rise?
nothing
stocks have done that since the dawn of time
Bulls take the elevator on the way up;
bears jump out the window for the trip down
Dope addict Larry Kudlow is claiming the FHA loan default rate is 76%.
An expert he is interviewing says the FHA default rate is 1 1/2 percent.
Who you believe, the druggie or the expert?
Isn’t FHA the most stringent lender (as in they actually adhere to loan requirements, not to mention strict inspections on the actual property itself)?
Even if they’re not, 76% sounds like such an outlandish number…
I think you’re wrong. FHA doesn’t even require appraisals in some refinance cases. WTF. Also they allow only 3% down for buyers, and the credit score requirements are not that high. Not that I believe Kudlow, but 1.5% is low IMO.
FALSE
On a down day, folks will naturally flood to the safety of “accidental high yielder” FTK.
FLY did you ever read any of Ben grahams books?
yes, they suck
Close to profanity. Try “they are less than exceptional”
Chartitable?
CMED, WFT, and AYE look good here if you are interested in swigging some Hurricane 40z on this day of the first nor’easter of Fall/Winter.
like wft too
It’s a party. Get Woodshedder to join and rev the howitzer-sized pistons in his apple red Firebird. We can clank bottles and pour out some of our 40s for fallen trader/bloggers – Dr. Cane, Chuck, etc.
Henry – BDCO!
You still in?
I actually just went and had a sandwich…’twas boring tuna (aka, pre-chopped via sham-wow dude)…
With volume, too.
Y’all – look at BDCO.
If it doesn’t end up getting delisted (seriously) it will be a big winner.
Insiders have been quietly buying for a while now.
This is a “Henry Special” from a few months back.
Like I predicted yesterday BAC shits the bed. My puts are looking nice. don’t expect BAC to come out of the shiter any time soon. The crap that countrywide and Merrill had on their books will hurt for a long time. As for Merrill Stan O’neil is an idiot. His purchase of first Franklin was so stupid.
You did well, BAC actually out sucked C
I still wouldn’t have take those odds
Government backed and mark to whatever = really hard to fuck up but somehow they succeeded
GE is a 12 -13 dollar stock. Short at will.
Are you a bear?
Does a bear shit in the woods? Of course I’m a bear, but I know better than to jump in front of a train. I have been mostly in cash for months now. There are storm clouds brewing IMO. When this bubble burst it will be worse than the last one. The dollar will be worth shit imports will decrease, food cost will rise. inflation will come and wipe old people out. The demoncrats and republocrats will still be scratching their heads and spending money and the Keynesians and Monetarist will finally realise that their way of thinking is a sham in todays economy.
Charles Ortel of Newport Value Partners just gave a $2 target on GE…
And wasn’t it the Pope who shit in the woods?
Post Vatican II, of course…
It will never happen as Obama will see to that.
GE is well connected, shall we say.
Moe:
I think BAC is getting out of the “Shitter.” Credit writedowns in the consumer area are actually improving. Merrills is actually saving their skin having produced around $4.7 billion in net revenue classified and sales and trading income.
Normalized earning are huge for this firm.
j;
You are right about the revenue that Merrill brought to the table, but that won’t last as when the hammer drops.
Loan losses are excellerating and things will only get worse as more people lose their jobs. I call the jobless recovery bullshit. the consumer will be hurting for a while IMO.
Loan losses are not accelerating, Moe. it’s the opposite in fact. Yesterdays master trust statutory disclosure report is showing this to be the case and they will see 4th quarter write-downs lower.
Yes, Merrill earnings could come down however I wouldn’t understate the real franchise value there to earn money.
Also BAC’s expenses are growing faster than its revenue, and Losses from home equity loans and residential and commercial mortgages soared, but the worst-hit business was the credit card unit. The unit’s chargeoff rate — the proportion of loans it does not expect to be repaid — is the highest in the nation at 14.25 percent.
@TMOE – “I call the jobless recovery bullshit. the consumer will be hurting for a while IMO.” 2nd that 100%.
Are you guys saying that (for instance) today’s rise in industrial production was bullshit, that the government is lying when it reports and annualized rise of 5.7%?
You guys need to stop being such ideologues. The stock market can certainly fall from here, although given the level of liquidity this is unlikely to happen in a big way. The economy is mending which is hat the stats are showing. If you don’t want to believe the stats and go with gut feel that’s another thing.
As for BAC. the level of write offs is still going to be elevated up to the 2nd quarter of next year, but we already know this.
“the government is lying when it reports and annualized rise of 5.7%?”
I doubt any number the government puts out, they are all fake news bullshit and skewed. Especially the unemployment numbers. Real unemployment is approaching 20%. Food will go up in price and shortages around the world. It is already happening, as hunger is increasing at an alarming rate. People will stop spending on needless items as food prices rise. Imports will suffer and China will stop buying so many treasuries as they realize that this administration and congress will continue to spend and deficts will increase. government spending and stinlus is only going to make the problem worse.
It all goes back to Bush,Cheney, and Haliburton.
It was their fault.
Balloon Boy for Fed Chairman.
Food prices are not going up, moe. Recent moves in stable soft commods has been down to sideways. that could be an issue down the track, however there hasn’t been an increase in hungry people as a result of the GFC.
wrong again j
“For the first time in history, more than one billion people are undernourished worldwide,” he said. “This is 105 million more than last year and it means that one in every six persons in the world suffers from hunger every day.”
The world’s most populous region, Asia and the Pacific, has the largest number of hungry people – 642 million – followed by sub-Saharan Africa with 265 million.
The FAO’s director general said the recent increase in hunger is not the consequence of a poor global harvest. He said it is caused by the current world economic crisis, which has reduced incomes and employment opportunities of the poor and significantly lowered their access to food.
“Food prices are not going up”, j
“Food prices are going up”, Jim Rogers (billionare)
Sorry j, I’ve got to go with JR on this one.
Is this the same Jim Rogers who claimed before the commodity crash that commodities were “the perfect anchor for portfolios as commodities move differently from other asset classes”.???
Jimmy Bow-Tie does have one great piece of advice (courtesy of Jack Schwager), “I like to wait until I see a little pile of money in the corner, then walk over and pick it up”. That is ALWAYS a good trading strategy.
Food prices still going down in Germany with one exception: price of butter increased (temporarily?) last week.
Oh my…I havent posted here in ages and you still holding FTK?
LOLOLOL…
What are you now? CEO/CFO/COO Fly of FTK? Own about 90% of float?
Cheers!
Bears are retarded. Sorry.
Maybe for the last few months, but you got to admit this rally is built on bullshit earnings that were better than expected from artifically low expectations. Earnings still decreased year over year and forclosures are rising at an alarming rate. people are still losing jobs. Inflation will come interst rates have no where to go but up, the dollar will become worth shit. the government does not know WTF they are doing and the Keynesians are wrong. Credit will continue to be tight. The bears will rise again and when this market starts to deflate you will be the first one to calls the bulls asshats
Yes Keynesian economics is crap and the stimulus was like a shot of heroine. However you’re also forgetting that monetary stimulus is the thing that’s turning economies around and although it’s fucking around with the inherent value of the currency, the stimulus from that could last for several years before things come down around our heads. Timing crises is impossible.
This is the biggest monetary infusion we’ve ever seen and the last one in the early 90’s caused the tech bubble.
Housing prices across the country have been rising for the past few months.
This is the biggest monetary infusion we’ve ever seen and the last one in the early 90’s caused the tech bubble.
Yep a liqudity trap
I disagree. After the USD hits bottom, it will rally like crazy.
Isn’t that circular reasoning?
Nice threads,
Not useful for making any money but whatever floats your boat
want to make money
Short GE
It’s funny how days like this Mo starts feelin’ his oats. I can only imagine the glee and homo huggin’ going on over at the slope. The stock market is greed and fear only loosely connected to the business cycle. You can be the smartest macroeconomic guy on the blog or you can make money. Me? I prefer to make money.
Could still get my TXN 22.98 (or not) which would trigger a SMH Spitzer scalp.
Watching and waiting.
One eye closed, one eye open.
MCD killing it
MTG landed an agreement with Fannie Mae (FNM) that will recapitalize MGIC’s mortgage-guaranty unit and allow it to continue writing policies. Another fucking government shell game. when will this stop when will the sheeple finally open their eyes and see that they are being screwed!! Government screwing with the free market will only prolong this recession. There are booms and bust. The busts are healthy as it returns things back to reality. If they want to fix this thing the first and clearest injunction is: don’t interfere with the market’s adjustment process, which will include bankruptcies of unsound enterprises, credit contraction, and falling wages and prices.
The adjustment process from boom to bust must be allowed to happen to have a recovery
Here are the ways the adjustment process can be hobbled:
Prevent or delay liquidation. Lend money to shaky businesses, call on banks to lend further, etc.
Inflate further. Further inflation blocks the necessary fall in prices, thus delaying adjustment and prolonging depression. Further credit expansion creates more malinvestments, which, in their turn, will have to be liquidated in some later depression. A government ‘easy money’ policy prevents the market’s return to the necessary higher interest rates.
Keep wage rates up. Artificial maintenance of wage rates in a depression ensures permanent mass unemployment. Furthermore, in a deflation, when prices are falling, keeping the same rate of money wages means that real wage rates have been pushed higher. In the face of falling business demand, this greatly aggravates the unemployment problem
TMOE – I think you should have been born 100 years earlier… You fight a good fight though. Remember to live to trade another day. That is all. Carry on.
I think wave4 bottomed today at 1081 and wave5 is beginning which will take us to around 1110 … will start raising cash and keep it to swing or day trades from this point on ….
This thread reads like SOH. Let’s focus on what the market is doing, oppose to what it should be doing…
We all can see what the market is doing, the way to make money is to know its next move. I am not talking about what it should be doing; talking about what it will do in the future IMO.
No kidding
Big Mike !!!
In case you dont know, The Fly has already made plans, in case of sudden death, to get buried with a mattress full of FTK shares.
Have a beer Mike !!!
Moe !!!! Stop arguing with this bunch. It s not worth it…………
they are all a bunch of lunatics anyhoot !!
Have a beer !!!
Thanks wiesel. I’ll will take a break. I don’t drink but I’ll go eat a sandwich
Pssst…. we (the Jake Family) thank you for your charitable donation of discount AUY stock yesterday.
😉
________
Bought CSR today.
Shoulda bought more SQM yesterday.
Hey Fly, is there any truth to the rumor that you have been in talks with” Ballon Boy” to get him to Blog for you,