I was over here, clapping like a fucking seal, due to some of my stocks bucking the trend, going up while the market knifed lower. That was 2pm. At the bell, I am taking sticks out of my eyes, as these motherfucking bastard stocks nail me to my beliefs, sacking my coin as if I were some rich old lady in a dark alley.
Cocksuckers, we’re on the other side of the mountain now and I fucking saw it coming, like a little league curveball that just doesn’t break. I could have easily invested my 15% cash position into 3x levered etf’s, giving me a cool 45% hedge. Instead, I sort of just punched the walls and slapped the cats (just kidding, I only throw cats out of windows).
I don’t want to talk about stocks anymore, since I have, clearly, missed out on this inflection point. I am pissed the fuck off and will convert this website into a “rent-a-clown” destination, where readers can rent out a clown for their kids parties or weddings.
Despite not knowing any tricks, I’ll come to your wedding, dressed as “BOZO the BALL BREAKER,” where I will magically punch the groom in his balls and slap the old people around with shrimp cocktails.
As you can see by my tone, I am in a pleasant mood today. I just love having to dig myself out of graves; it makes for great sport.
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Its time to go long.
are you saying whenever Fly is about to toss cats, its time to buy his portfolio?
Usually a good sign.
Yeah, wave 4 up (of minor wave 3) but the trend says it will be a one day rally then wave 5 back down. Best to wait and catch minor wave 4 uptrend around Friday for the three up waves (and two down waves) that should last about a week. But longer term it looks like we are in Primary wave C and OEW is predicting new lows to SPX 400 … BTDs for a trade but be careful to adjust accordingly.
I like charts but I find the wave count stuff retarded. it is not a good explanation of the complex combination of real world events that lead to market moves.
head and shoulders is a real thing: we went up and made a peak, we made another one, and then we went back down quite a bit, tried to make another peak and then everybody started to think…. well fuck…. we’re not going to make a big big peak again are we. we’re fucked. and then perhaps we go down, snap the neckline and we declare this a “head and shoulders”.
but in terms of real people scrimmaging around the market its a real thing. its not dorito chips shit.
Thousands of other traders would disagree with you …. Woodshedder did a thread about fractals or mathematical patterns that repeat themselves in nature as well as life. The father of fractals has applied it to the stock market and waves are just another form of fractal or pattern that tend to repeat themselves from minute to major waves in reaction to outside forces. Wave theory got me long and kept me long for the retracement and just got me out a few weeks ago. Working for me as far as timing the market from a macro perspective … charts used in conjunction confirm or narrow the focus to sectors and/or individual stocks within those sectors, for me anyway. But I’m always learning and IBC adds to my learning curve and confirms my thinking or helps me find the errors of my ways.
Here are some sites for your perusal:
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2006/fractals.html
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!D2CB8C5EBA2ADE86!47445.entry#comment
What EW provides is a methodology for making informed entries and exits into the markets.
Almost any methodology, applied with discipline, is better than trading without a methodology and without discipline.
I’m surprised that Artha prescribes to the rolling hills and valleys that make up a H&S pattern more validity than Elliot Wave, when they are both just hills and valleys.
Don’t get me started on Fractals. I never finished that series of posts. Too complicated, but very fascinating.
Only those who subscribe to PPT will be able to afford the freaky clown rental…..and I’ll bet the clown ends up casing your joint !
funny post.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJd4-lTZf1k&feature=related
Fuck off Cigar lover.
there is nothing like a fine cigar and 25 year old chivas neat. care for some?
No.
I’ll take the cigar, but you can keep the crappy scotch. Bourbon, or maybe a glass of Martell’s.
LOL. you got it.
oof.
Woodshedder, is that sarcasm or are you for real?
The way Fly has been on the wrong side of everything lately he MEANS it.
Fuck off dog fucker.
My daughter got married two months ago.
Where was Bozo the Ball Breaker when I needed him most?
To go after the groom?
No, to threaten the accounts receivable clerk at the reception hall to adjust TC’s bill!
I’m for real. I will be putting 25% of my capital into the SPY on tomorrow’s open.
why? with the neckline break aren’t we toast from a tech standpoint for at least a day or two?
Franky, odds favor a bounce.
Besides, from a sentiment/crowded trade point of view, everyone and their brother knows the neckline broke. Seems like a perfect opportunity for a little whipsaw action to get the newly minted shorts out of their positions.
Believe me, I want to short the hell out of some things, but I believe it is too late for that. I think the money trade is being in cash or getting long for an oversold bounce. We’re talking a hold time of several days at the most.
To be clear, I swing trade, so I’m looking just a few days to a week out.
How the hell do you want to short the hell out of things when you believe in the Golden Cross?
Hobo, the market moves across many different time frames. The Golden Cross is an event which signals a possible trend change that reaches out many many months, or even years. What happens immediately following the cross is of little relevance. It is like a speck of dust on an elephant’s ass.
Like many who want to chase the moves and react in hindsight rather than trade proactively, my emotions and sentiment lead me to want to get short. Following such emotion is typically a mistake. I don’t like to make mistakes, especially when the odds favor a bounce here.
Homo
Brilliant retort. I don’t know why I waste my time answering you fucktards.
LOL!! FWIW Wood I got a measured move count on the 5 minute from yesterday’s high that ended at 880.19 so a bounce should happen. I think it will be a very weak bounce though (890 Max)
maybe maybe the overall market bounces, maybe not, but that’s not a safe trade or any kind of edge.
I say short individual names, selecting the finest retards that are going alpha negative regardless.
I’m about ready to restart positions (mostly short). cause…. uh.. my reflation trade longs are now stopped out. there goes a few weeks of hard work.
in times like these swing trading is hard. moves of a week or more don’t happen. I look at my happy AUO and think : nice, you are doing well my son. but now you are going to shit canned. maybe I should just take the small change.
Artha, I assume you have the mechanism to calculate/quantify this edge you are saying doesn’t exist?
Wood, your scaring me dude, thinking way to much alike lately. I do think any bounce will be short lived, even intraday. I do think this is an important confirmation that sends us lower for a while.
Oh, I’m absolutely bearish over the next month or more. Still, I see absolutely no reason to jump on the “its different this time” bandwagon. The market goes up and down, even when going down.
Getting short here reminds me of how I used to trade when I first started. It seems like a 100% slam dunk.
Until the earnings parade gets underway it’s just guessing.
You trade your beliefs freeman, and I’ll trade mine.
Gutsy but you shall be rewarded. We will bounce to 92x…
Woodshedder, seems like tomorrow bears have another reason to further their onslaught with the MBA #’s. Doubt mtge apps rose. Plus, last week was a short holiday week. But never know.
S&P closed just above support of 880, if we get a close below that tomorrow, then it’s time to get in on the inverse ETF action. Until then, I can stand one more day of pain in order to hold my ground…….880 is pretty significant.
Kids birthday coming up, will you wear big floppy shoes ? I’ ll pay extra..actually I hate clowns..not that there is anything wrong…..
Yes. I will wear floppy shoes and carry a loaded gun, in a holster.
I can do all sorts of tricks, such as “throw the birthday cake against the wall” and “watch Daddy lose a fight”
“Watch Daddy Dance to the gunfire”
Didn t know you had any children, don t worry I’ll only dust ya up a bit and make sure they are flesh wounds. Would not want to make anymore widows and orphans..be well
hehehe…just got away with some of the “old ladies’ ” coins in that dark alley!
Hey fucker: I am not an old lady: I only dress up as one.
Would it be at those times that you would call yourself “Plutonium P@ssy”
ROFLMAOMGZZZzZZZ
If the market NEVER does what the crowd expects, why would the market go down from here? Everybody and his dog’s uncle thinks the market is “due for a pause” or “rolling over”. I can’t remember seeing, hearing or reading any “pundit” in the last few days say that this is a buying opportunity. Un fact, the market was acting fine today until the UNG fuckery seemed to screw everything up.
I had a glorious day today! Other than UNG and DXO I banked coin. My SRS and QID went king kong on your nutsacks while I sit over here in the corner getting free lap dances via RICK In short, I am off to grill a steak and pick up some more singles for the ladies of RICK.
fuck off server boy
LOL… He’s really off to pick up a quick game of Dungeons & Dragons down at the malt shoppe.
singles? thought you had a glorious day. LOL.
you again?
The ho’s there are not worth multiples.
clearly the fly did not get a copy of the goldman sachs trading code. i can sell you a copy for 4 easy tarp installments of $2B each.
I’m with Woodshedder on this , bounce from 880 to 910, then lower.
count me in on this thinking too.
Fly. I will call you about performing at Steve,Jr’s Bar Mitzvah next month.
Can you pull up in a clown car? Just like the one the Shriners use for their parade.
That would be a big hit with Uncle Leo as he used to be a clown too.
Yes. I will show up in a clown car that will detonate after I leave.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/one-trillion-commercial-real-estate.html
CRE resets. Good artical
yes, it resets in the face of taxpayers who will roll those loans… this is bailout country!
I remember a post about a month ago. Master Fly said he was going to start selling after the 4th of July. MF is always right, even when he appears not to be 🙂
Alcoa reports in the next following days, if something not “super good” is announced markets will test the neckline, and with expected build on inventories for the Oil complex tomorrow and Thursday I’m not super bullish.
Go ahead and hope for a bounce, only “cowboyz” do that.
Better odds at betting that the bears will continue their charge.
Some times you are the bug, some other times you are the windshield.
DD
Bye Bye bulls
Dirty Dawg, you have no data, only emotion.
However, should you have data, please tell me the “odds” of the bears continuing their charge.
There’s this prediction of an extended wave 3 down:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3036564
There is rock solid support at zero.
how about that resistance at 350,000 DJIA?
Stimulate me bitchez!
Poor Fly, how thy laurels have tarnished! Now comes the time when those with insightful macro calls are separated from the dime-store momentum traders (no offense, of course)
I will be in QID at the open and out after 15% or july 24th.
No chance in fixing the comments link?
I’m just gonna sit in cash and watch Michael Jackson videos on YouTube.
F$ck! Cramer is bearish, time for a huge bounce!
You had G.I. Joe and Barbie. Now presenting Economy Slayers T.M.(all rights reserved/made in China) action figures.
Hey kids! Now just put your imagination to use creating events, such as:
Bankerman kicking your family out of a home you couldn’t afford in the first place
Bossman making your dad cry when he got laid off from his job
Team Obama gang raping the Statue of Liberty
Brokerman smashing your piggy bank and stealing all your pesos
Geronimo, beotch.
I was in cash today watching Jacko and friends. Fascinating watching $SPY puke as the tears started to flow on stage.
why would anybody want to celebrate a child rapist? i mean that guy probably fucked little children all the time, and you salute him? In my country (italy) we rape those freaks and make them eat their own flesh.
-Forza Napoli
Many of you doom and gloom guys must live shitty lives. Stressing out and checking your P&L every chance you get. If you look at a weekly chart of SPY, it’s had had a huge run up from March. All markets need to take a breather and the fact it is happening over summer is even more of a reason to chill the fuck out. Simple moving averages are smoothing out on a weekly and I would assume we see support around 860 then we bounce back up into the shopping season. The nature of the way you fuckers think as if we are going to fall off a cliff amuses me.
Chill the fuck out,
Shut the fuck up.
long time no see.
At least OVTI had an up day and didn’t totally shit the bed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tm0kHzdKDEE&feature=related
I remain fully short and extremely bearish, but I agree with Woodshedder about the bounce.
The break in the neckline is such a bear trap.
CIG
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJzrdamfB_o&feature=related
Did you enjoy my memorial service today?
Yes… still dead.
Kudlow is a fucking Idiot.
Here is an Evian water commercial along the lines of the E*Trade Baby commercial.
Very talented youngsters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQcVllWpwGs&feature=player_embedded
Fly
Welcome to the short side. Wondered why you were puzzling over your earnings deteriorating during the past month. Strangely, that coincided with the spx dropping 50points. Odd no? Very much like a co-relataion. A correlation, yeah that’s it.
World is full of haters. I hate haters
Actually a lover of MF, not a hater, you tard. Celebrating the changing of opinion. STFU. We hate you.
Great thread! Chivas dancing bear LOL.
Shed don’t go long until Devildog posts “New lows in July”
And we grind!
Fly can I have a ClownsRus franchise for KC?
Enough with the foolishness:
http://ibankcoin.com/woodshedderblog/2009/07/07/no-wonder-95-of-all-traders-blow-up/
More evidence of “green shoots”…Japan machinery orders down
July 8 (Bloomberg) — Japanese machinery orders unexpectedly fell for a third month in May as sliding profits forced companies to cut spending on plant and equipment.
Bookings, an indicator of capital investment in the next three to six months, declined 3 percent from April, when they plunged 5.4 percent, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 2 percent increase.
mrkcbill is available for rent as Krusty the Clown.
Green shoots spotted coming out of Kudlow and Kneale’s ass.
I don’t think we’ll get any bounce. We’ve broken the 50 day on the S&P and below it on the Dow. Its straight down from here for the next 4 weeks. Probably either a retest of lows or perhaps down to S&P 600 Dow 6000. A sharp bounce there in August into Sept. and then another leg down to Dow 5000 S&P 500. If S&P earnings this year come in around $30 then a 15-18 PE makes sense putting us in a 450 – 540 range.
Earnings are unlikely to go back to 2007 levels for a long time more like 2014-2015. The only people who think stocks are cheap are the ones who assume earnings will go back to peak levels once this recession is over later this year. They are dead wrong. Earnings were juiced up via leverage and easy credit. The markets were on steroids. The steroids of easy credit and leverage are being taken out of the system. Its like expecting MLB players to be hitting 50-60 homers in a season after being taken of steroids. Ain’t gonna happen. If the market needs to price in slow to no growth over the next several years, S&P 300 is a real possibility.
S&P 300 is a little harsh. Now S&P 600 is something I can get behind.
S&P 300 will be the new name for the index.
S&P zero, motherllamas.
LOL motherllamas 🙂
CAP has it right. We are going down, a little up and then down some more, maybe a lot more. There are a few entities along with many of the common folk that have reached the conclusion (rightfully so) that we a totally and irrevocably screwed. As in bend over and take it dry screwed.
The mood here in the trenches of Michigan is far worse than during the oil embargo’s of the 70’s or the high inflation and interest rates of the early 80’s. There is no work and the real unemployment rate is far past double what is actually being reported by the state and fed’s. People are spending the last of their credit reserves on black rifles and ammo. I am not kidding. We are FUBAR’d
See you at about 450 S&P come December unless the O man proves he can walk on water and raise the dead. Biden’s comment about the bubbagubmint “underestimiating” the severity of the problem is the tip of the iceberg.
Me, I’m planning on shooting enough venison to last the entire winter. That’s my hedge………..:)
Jed, has taken a renewed interest in all things Michael Jackson.