I am not insane, at least not yet. But, from my vantage point, the chips must be bought on dips, until the rubber lips of short sellers get boxed off. Now, I am not suggesting that business is booming or global growth is back in vogue. What I am suggesting, backed up by Intel’s conference call, the PC market may have bottomed, back in February.
How can I suggest such a thing?
Well, for all intents and purposes, back in February, business ground to a halt. Capacity utilization rates were running between 35-40%. Do you realize how fucking ridiculous that is? The panic has ended and mild end user demand for goods and services is back.
As a result, production at certain foundries are now running near 70%, almost double the rate of just two months ago. Inventories have been stripped bare and prices for chips are on the rise.
It is very possible that my bull thesis for chip on dips is wrong. Perhaps we are enjoying a mild respite, just prior to the ax of death falling on our respective heads. We shall see.
In the meantime, I want to be long the following, preferably on dips: [[RFMD]], [[AMKR]], [[TER]], [[ASX]], [[SPIL]] and [[TQNT]].
Also, thanks to government stimulus and Verizon, I want to be long stocks that are participating in the 4g roll out. Names like [[STAR]], [[ERIC]] and [[ALU]] are of great interest to me. And, I am a big fan of the WLAN rollout. There, I like [[ARUN]], specifically as a takeover play.
For now, I will resume eating sticky oatmeal, out of an oversized wooden bowl. And, I’ll have you know, I no longer require the services of Dunkin’ Donuts. I have moved on, pass that blue collar stage in my life, and have resumed consuming the sweet/bitter liquids at [[SBUX]] again.
Developing…
UPDATE: I sold out of SCO at $30.
UPDATE II: I bought 2,000 CRR @ $30.22.
UPDATE III: I bought 5,000 FAZ @ $10.80
UPDATE IV: I bought 2,000 SRS @ $33.80
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Interesting to see how this pans out. My blind “Fly Follow” before the buzzer on RFMD sure seems to be panning out. 10%+ 1 day is something I could get used to.
THI has the best coffee imo.
Who are you, Lenny Dykstra? What’s up with all this fundamental analysis? Are you trading or buying this shizzle for your IRA? What difference does it make what “capacity utilization rates” are when you’ll be in and out of these stocks 4 times in one day? To me that seems like egregious twatery.
My chip play is CREE. Like the thesis, though.
Is anyone trading OWW? Seems interesting to me. I just got long 2k for fun.
Not true. I hold stocks longer than you think.
MOOBER – Along those lines, I started accumulating AMR late last week and averaged down up to this morning. Starting to pay off nicely. People assume that travel will end forever, and I don’t agree. Once a bunch of blue-collar bozos file their taxes and get their refund, they will be on the next flight to Cabo. OWW wins, airlines win, maybe even some of the cruise lines. Who knows.
jake, what is your opinion on using the 2x leveraged funds as an investment vehicle over a long period of time, say 20-40 years, via IRAs and the like?
Alpha is all over OWW, as is PPT.
I was told not to double dip my chips.
Must be okay now.
Fly,
Be very carefully with TQNT, $4 is around the max share price.
Definitely sell before earning call. It will be interesting to hear the management explain their way out the mess that they are in, regarding inventory.
I am looking to go short here once the price hits 4.00.
Also, in case you did not know, buying into a sector, even for a trade, based upon improving fundies, is the very basis of catching a great trade. Get in before fund managers.
Of course, most of you Tea Party Tea Baggers would not understand that, since it does not say such things on your idiotic charts.
I sold TQNT. I want back in lower.
Thx, Fly. I’ve been slow to join the PPT. Just busy and distracted. I will sign up soon. Looking forward being a distinguished gent.
DVAX running…. Pinch me I must be dreaming
This rally is over
TQNT has a major plant down the road from me (about 20 minutes).
If you want I will go there ask plenty of questions and take pictures.
Looks like TLAB decided to wake up again http://www.google.com/finance?q=tlab
FXP looks to be putting in a bottom now too. is it just me or is the market rallying 6516851% and yet none of the internal, structural issues with the global economy and financial market have been resolved? shorting retailers looks interesting from here too like CENT, PETM, DLTR, etc.
long fxp. it blows
Tony Danza –
Please explain to me how a stock/ETF can be putting in a bottom the day it prints a 52 week low.
Edit: The damn thing has been down since Mar 1 in almost a straight line. Forming a bottom my ass.
CHINA GDP report tonight at 10pm…I expect some “green shutes”, “mustard seeds”.
I am hearing from friends/family from Brazil that market there is ripping the fuck up. Everybody is pilling in. I will fly there next month and leave a small portion of my assets in a mutual fund. Also, they are looking for sugar cane farm(alternate fuel) investors.
What you all think of Brazil?
Fly,
I thought you said once small caps start having good runs, it’s time to get out of equities. Aren’t the likes of CROX, RFMD, TQNT, FEED etc. showing this behavior. I’ve been selling my longs into this strength and picking up some of those devilish 2x iETF’s. What say you?
It is important to note again that it doen’t matter if problems are solved today.
The market discounts stuff and looks out 6-9 months.
Check out the bull ran that began in Aug. 1982 and the unemployment rate didn’t bottom until mid-1983.
I am not saying this is a bull run but hey who knows?
As in Watergate just follow the money up and/or down.
Oops. Looks like this rally is fading faster than Senor Tropicana’s hairline. Back in FAZ and SRS. looks like Senor grow a pair.
Iceberg
High stakes poker.
Cap
Go suck your pants off.
PFFFT….BLEEP BLEEP…
THIS IS THE QUAKER…PFFT…DO YOU READ ME…PFFT…MORE OATMEAL REQUIRED AT IBANKCOIN.COM…PFFT…DO YOU COPY…OATMEAL STAT TO IBANKCOIN.COM…PFFT…COME IN…BREAKER 19…PFFT…IS ANYONE THERE…
the fuck?
I can live with that. Don’t have the time to watch the market continually but do try to follow most of your longer term trends because you’re right more than your wrong.
LOL
Fly–glad to have u back..the gay chiptard stocks tim knight could have picked..fuck BAC..I see minimum of 8 bucks…
RFMD is down the road from me about 10 miles. They have been building and expanding their plants here which they started on in 2006 which was to be a 3 year project to be finished sometime this year…. so? I hope they get rocking myself, as I have owned RFMD for 5 years and thought it was a hopeless cause. I even ran into one of their executives 2 years ago at an antique tractor show in Denton, NC, he owns a very big John Deere collection and told me the one he brought to this show was on display for 12 months at the John Deere headquarters offices, it was like a 1920’s model.
i’m fucking pissed i got out of RFMD early. had a 10% gain, so i cleared out. thought i’d get back in in the 1.90s.
Maria needs to wear more makeup…sometimes it’s just painful to watch…
Mustard Seeds.
Keep your Kaiser The Dog away from my poodle.
That is one horny dog you have.
I hope he is fixed because my Fi Fi isn’t.
Welcome back my friend to the FAZ that nevers ends
So glad you can attend come inside come inside
Damn HenryFool, DVAX up 34% today!
Maria needs to spike her hair, put on some 80’s leggins..and go fuck a microphone…chubby sloppy, bug eyed ex crack whore.
You’re a brave soul going long here. We’re approaching the teeth of earnings season. A couple bad reports (especially from the tech sector) and you’re gonna see a whole-sale selloff in the NAZ. Here is my balls-out prediction: I expect GOOG to sh*t some bricks on Thursday when they report setting us up for a nasty plunge in NASDAQ-land on Friday.
You read it here first ladies.
No, Steve, he’s not..I endorse his spreading of his seed everywhere….I pitty Fi Fi…those is gonna be some horses she’ll be carrying
I think I may be a Daddy.
Master Mustard, better buy some extra Purina.
buy me asshat
DVAX : I’m selling only enough to fuel the fire
Throw 1/4 of the position on the fire @ .98 and see what happens.
SRS/FAZ are ridiculous tools of death.
Goldman is suing (or threatening to sue) this poor blogger:
http://www.goldmansachs666.com/
Bought DVAX @1
Whats up with the daily action in CRE, IYR/SRS?
never seen anything like it .. either up or down 10% every day
I held FAZ from yesterday single digits. Sold at a profit and wasted a day of my life hitting refresh. Get back in and it’s gone in 45 minutes. Actually come to think of it they are the only thing I’ve taken a bath on this entire YTD but quite a bath indeed.
So CRE and Financials are fucking bowling on fuckers today while tech is getting the homo hammer of death. Just fucking great you faggots. Fuck you all I am kicking through my office door and leaving. God fuck a rats nest.
Fly- quite whining…step up ..this isnt rfmd..
RFMD just gets pushed out of every dip…Kaiser, you know the rules…The first question you ask her is if her parents have money and is it new money or old money…run if its new cause if it ain’t gone now it will be soon.
Some dude..you are right Tim Horton coffee is great..too bad none in MD..guess just ME and FL in the states. Always first stop on the way to YYZ or YUL
low %- but a last 15 minute swoon would be nirvana…
SFLY is next bitches!
GOOG appears to have eaten oatmeal
Fool…sfly is about to reverse…imo
2009 will go down in history as the year of the lies…… there is more mis-information out than I have ever seen. You can get a story from one of ten thousand news agencies in any direction on the same subject you want….you want a rosie article on a certain subject, just look for it, if you want a gloom story on the same subject, just click one more page, there it is.
what a buch of shit….Is the entire media on the governments payroll? Is the entire media so willing to buy into the bullshit that they all are convinced, and making it known, that the worst is over and it’s all rainbows and butterflies from here on out?
SFLY will reverse if it doesn’t break out soon…..
But it’s gonna BTFO soon.
Expectations for another blow away qtr in 2 weeks will fuel the run past 12.
fly, i am gonna faz you
Lotta research in CRE came out over the past couple of days.
GS upgraded and downgraded a bunch of names in the space this morning. There’s also speculation of consolidation in the weaker REIT names, e.g. KIM. That, plus expiration-week fuckery, equals frustration.
When do we vote next? I want to hang somebody
The squeeze is CRE is what happens when even on CNBC they are discussing CRE as the next shoe to drop.
As they say; when everyone knows something, go the other way.
Fi Fi tells me that her Master SteveTheNeighbor is unemployed but has some money saved since he has been stealing the cable,water, and electricity from his neighbor’s house while he is at work. Some guy named Fly.
j0sh1ngU,
Quit trading. You fucking suck at calling tops!
i have not watched the short bus show CNBC in a week..last 45 minutes of listening to these cocksuckers…is pure BS…fuck this show forever,plus 20 yrs..fucking idiot symphony.
lol…. i dont trade for day traders as that makes no money. i trade trends that last minimum of a week or so
correct me if i am wrong, but I believe the top i called still stands and i believe i am still in the money. and i believe that one day doesnt matter, the weeks and months matter so eat my crumbs
Tim Hortons is the best coffee by far, but I can never find it outside of Canada.
I know in my town (Savannah) Starbucks always has a line practically out the door. The coffee isn’t even that good in the one here I always go to, but the beans you buy from Starbucks in the Pikes’ Place organic brand are the absolute best, if you grind your own beans at home.
Plus Starbucks is expanding in Europe, and they love their coffee and consume substancially more than Americans do. The original brain and CEO who started the company came out of retirement to turn the company back around and close the underperforming branches and expand worldwide.
And they have their little breakfast deal now – a breakfast sandwich plus coffee for under $4.00, or a cinnamon twist or oatmeal and talle latte for under $4.00. Not bad, really.
And that’s my pump for Starbucks. LOL
SRS should be on trial! This fucker is about to be guillotined soon.
“UPDATE III: I bought 5,000 FAZ @ $10.80
UPDATE IV: I bought 2,000 SRS @ $33.80”
UPDATE V : FAZ bent me over AGAIN
UPDATE VI: SRS bent me over AGAIN
UPDATE VII: Eating cold spaghetti-o’s out of the can tonight.
someone here has had their nut sack fondled by invisible fairy midgets with pink booties again.
fly: goddam, unless it’s a hedge, the FAZ before JPM earnings is ballsy isn’t it?
jake, what is your opinion on using the 2x leveraged funds as an investment vehicle over a long period of time, say 20-40 years, via IRAs and the like?
I’m seriously hoping this was “tongue in cheek.”
If not… well…
ANY derivative ETF should be treated as a hissing lit stick of dynamite.
Very short term, know your targets and GTFO when you hit them.
____________
Is anyone trading OWW? Seems interesting to me. I just got long 2k for fun.
Has anyone pointed out to you that your two favorite current stocks are…
BOOM!
and
OWWW!!
__________
Sure, pick out the two bad trades, ignore the 10 good ones.
“someone here has had their nut sack fondled by invisible fairy midgets with pink booties again.”
tickle, tickle ! I am dying over here laughing
@Big Mike,
I think BZF is going to have a nice run up as the USD slowly dies.
Real did second best against USD to CAD in 06-07.
But the Bovespa? The daily swings are a bit much for anyone and if you don’t have connections I don’t think you can invest. It’s a pretty closed economy in some ways still.
Brazilian Market last 5 Years
What you all think of Brazil?
I am in Pabst Blue Ribbon (PBR) in size, but I trust nothing else in that beknighted berg of Phil’s.
___________
Cap says:
Oops. Looks like this rally is fading faster than Senor Tropicana’s hairline. Back in FAZ and SRS. looks like Senor grow a pair.
Oops. Looks like someone made his own dick sandwich to finish the trading day.
_________
all I can say about Brazil is, Two Girls one Cup….
other than the fact, I’d like to get a truck load of pre-ban Brazilian rosewood.
Most sincere appreciation, Sir. You have been blessed with proper grammar along with your numerous other aptitudes. There is a definitive difference between those that know, for all intents and purposes, that “all intensive purposes” is simply preposterous, and those that do not. Good day.
RkhaKk