Calm down people; it’s only the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it. If today taught you anything, our government has no idea how to arrest the ongoing financial collapse. Public support has been eroded to the point where plumbers want to murder investment bankers, rightfully so.
All of my investment bank friends, who were making 2mill per annum a few years back, are dutifully unemployed now, with banks leaning on them and tow trucks repossessing their fancy cars, rightfully so.
As for me, I am one of the very select few who have benefited from this crisis, through various time machine trips, possessed by an overall sense of extreme pessimism. I feed off the hate. My business, despite not really giving a fuck, has flourished to the point where I reject new money, as if it was tainted with polio.
As for this tape:
It’s possible we will retest the lows. However, I get the sense there are too many people leaning short here. I rather stay long China, via FXI, CHL, JRJC and WX, with large and sizable short positions in big oil, via ERY and DUG.
Just a quick reminder: XOM is $30 rich.
Despite today’s meltdown, I only lost 3%, thanks in large part to my oil shorts (25% of assets) and 25% cash position. God willing, I will regain that 3% and more tomorrow. Also, for the most part, I am still up on all of my longs.
Longer term the country is in bad shape. I am hearing there will be a crisis in retail, in fairly short order. I will be taking on some new retail shorts, within a week.
Either way you slice it, the best shorts of 2009 will be found in commercial RE and oil. Stocks like ESS, MAC, KIM, SLG, BXP, FRT, XOM, CVX, NOV, CHK and RIG have significant downside left.
In other news, the fucking bastards from McGraw Hill dropped Barry Ritholtz’s book: Bailout Nation. Being the parent company of S&P, I am not surprised by their unprofessional conduct.
UPDATE: Barry opines on his ordeal with the fuckers from McGraw Hill.
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Fly is god. Short APOL with impunity
got my soup kitchen picked out
Jed is a salad tosser
1931 sans gold standard. Im in.
In going along with most of your shorts for 2009 list… I guess you love SRS around $65 Fly?
Can someone tell me what happened to Geithner’s eyebrows?
I think he is an alien.
The Dow went from $150 to $43 from Apr 1, 1931 to Apr 1, 1932
I bet you could have bought a lot of mustard seeds back then for a dollar.
Okay — I think he and Kris Kristofferson both had them punched off in the seventies.
During the last big Recession.
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These asshats at the Treasury, the Obama tools, and the dickslaps in Congress are imbeciles. I can’t believe they overlooked me for Treasury secretary. I could fix this fucking mess tomorrow. Take $500 billion and refi the mortgages. That would do it. The buffoonery is mind numbing to me.
Oh, and the market blasts higher tomorrow when they suspend mark-to-market.. Some asshole whispered this into Chris “I Only Tanned Nude With Angelo Once” Dodd’s huge Cro-Magnonesque skull and he thought it might be a good idea.
Nice one JG. I guess Geithner won the eyebrow punching contest today but I suspect the Fly was handicapped with Wood’s BBQ sauce in his eyes
Things are sooooo fucked up.
The only way the market rallies is from crap government quotes like “fuck mark to market” or “yes we’ll buy all of your bank crap at inflated prices and fuck the taxpayers”.
Other then that it’s shit out of luck son.
We’re going from 1 trillion in bailout money to 3 trillion in a heartbeat.
Maybe that keeps the floor in.
Maybe that’s what makes the floor fallout.
Can we keep the faith that things will be better a year from now in the barrage of terrible news we will be getting for months?
Or do we except that instead of the standard of living increasing in other countries, moving closer to ours, it our standard of living that will move down, closer to theirs.
Judging by the regrettable performance of our new “saviors” I must, with great dismay, bet on the latter.
I am sitting on the sidelines tomorrow morning. I am in 100% cash. Today was not a crash, (sorry Devildog) but an orderly decent into madness in my view.
I think the markets will be schizophrenic tomorrow and I want to wait and see before jumping in.
Will take a leisurely lunch and then decide in the afternoon.
What a mess this country is in. This all Democratic government I fear will be much worse than the last. Timmay proved he is a real idiot today….how unbelievably STUPID this man is….he has no idea how to deal with the markets. Obama is being lead around by Pelosi and Reid…he is just some STEPFORD HUSBAND. Bernanke just makes my skin crawl…I could barely stand to look and listen to him today in front of Congress.
I went to visit with my family tonight as I always do on Tuesdays. They are all blissfully ignorant of what is happening. I send them email links to articles, I try and tell them to watch out about this or that and they simply pay no attention. They cannot understand why I am so angry and upset. They honestly think no banks are in trouble- things will be okay. They are spending like there’s no tomorrow. I tried to warn them about life insurance policies and insurance companies defaulting and they don’t believe me.
I think a lot of the country has not gotten angry and upset yet at what is happening. We see it everyday because we are in the markets but unless you have been laid-off or your IRA’s have been trashed… most people are just acting like- the worse has already happened and everything is maybe not great but will be fine.
We are going to have to have some really bad scares…to wake up this country.
.
A must read about Paulson:
http://www.dickipedia.org/dick.php?title=Henry_Paulson
TraderCaddy, nascar err crapcar sucks. My next race is the ALMS Twelve Hours of Sebring in March. The GT2 class will be where the action is. New GT2 C6 Vettes will go up against Porsche 911 GT3 RSR, Ferrari F430 GT, BMW M3, VIPER Competition Coupe., Ford GT-R and Panoz Esperante GTLM.
Peugeot is bringing a pair of 908 HDi factory prototypes that I’m dying to see. Fastest car in the world.
Can’t wait!!!
BTW, I’m not covering in the 700s tomorrow. My target is very, very, very low 600s…like 601.
Chris “I only tanned nude once with Angelo” Dodd.
Repulsive on its face, but funny.
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Zombie is an ass munchkin
A must read on Cheney:
http://www.dickipedia.org/dick.php?title=Dick_Cheney
excerpts from some citi notes on the bank plan (with regards to US Banks) released today -nothing too exciting, just something to read:
Weaker Banks Underperformed Today — BKX was down 14% with market concluding that weaker banks will be the losers in this plan (see Figure 1). The reason being that the weaker banks are less likely to pass the stress test, and
will be forced to raise capital at levels below tangible book. However, even the “stronger” banks were down today, which may reflect a view that their returns may suffer competing against banks w/ large gov’t ownership.
..
— Top picks are STT and BK because of large securities books that benefit from reduction in liquidity marks. Of regionals, we like KEY, which should perform well in stress test and is trading at significant discount to TBV. BAC looks very cheap here, and seems to price in significant dilution already.
Lung Sac — that “dickepedia” site is awesome. They’ve even got soccer nailed to a tee. This from the David Beckham entry:
In this country, soccer is not so much of a pastime as it is an annoying affectation, enjoyed by the same people who come back from their semesters abroad listening to French hip-hop and dipping their fries in mayo. The few who play it are a particular breed of dick, the type that walks around with massage-sole Adidas flip-flops and annoying ponytail nubs. Also, lesbians.
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Jake –
I’ll be up all night reading this shit.
Last one – Had to keep it relevant
http://www.dickipedia.org/dick.php?title=Bernard_Madoff
I went to JFK to pick up a friend I’ve known since 1963 and took him to CT. did not take the radio with me because I didn’t want to listen to what was going on. As I said, I was heavily short this with zero longs but quite honestly I’ve made my money from this market and don’t need to make a dime more. I’ve paid off my mortgage and put enough money away for our two childrens’ college tuition and “Maw” and I don’t need to work another day in our lives if we don’t care to. (Maw’s list of shorts was nothing less than genius and she came up with them all with two knitting needles in her hands and me typing on my laptop, artic cat, winnebago, pool, beazer homes, she told me Crox was a crock, damn I could go on and on here. I did most everything she said.) Though I lost on Friday, claiming I was betting on Geitner, I made a bundle today, but every penny of it is going to Oxfam. I thought it was a sad day, so many students came out and voted for Obama, and they did so for all the right reasons. I practically got kicked out of the school for not going along with the movement, even though I was only teaching one class last semester. I never liked Obama, didn’t feel he’d done anything to deserve the presidency but the alternative was and is nothing less than “The Horror” as Kurtz put it in Apocalpse Now. Maw says the only hope for the fool is to pull out of Afghanistan and Iraq but also put up a billion dollars for the head of Osama Bin Laden (that’s what “Maw” says all right). Once Obama has Osama’s head, holds it up before the crowd and gives us that big ass smile of his and one of his famous ‘looks’ he’ll be back on the throne in no time, ruling like he’d never heard the name Timbo before. Meanwhile, the only throne he’s going to be sitting on is the one in Thain’s office.
I think when they put the uptick rule back in (its only a matter of time) it will kill the leveraged iETFs. I am avoiding those for any downside trades from here on out.
I closed all my shorts into todays melt and took a few long side flyers at the close.
The whole “sell the news” thing was too predictable.
If all of you fuckin traders and quasi investors paid attention to politics in the least, you would realize that today was exactly what Obama and company wanted/planned for. Politicians don’t care what happens on a single day in the markets unless it helps accomplish policy (up or down).
Similar to how the shitty jobs number helped Obama demand for a stimulus agreement, the market drop today does the same. Intellectually these guys are levels above most of you simpleton nut suckers. They knew exactly how the market would behave today and were smartly, purposefully vague. Any of you that actually think otherwise need to step away from the computer screen and stock charts every once in a while.
This gives the administration even larger power to plop around until this stimulus is on Obama’s desk…probably by Fri or Sat now. Markets will have probably retested the lows by then as well. Then they will have magically figured out the details on all these programs, mark-to-market repealed or scaled back, etc. Then you and all the money on the side will flood back in as the announcements float out and uncertainty clears up.
The mistake Obama is making is he is delegating the solution of these problems to his subordinates and not reviewing, and over ruling if necessary, what they come up with. Take the stimulus for example. He let the House craft a bill. The House!!?? You can’t expect them to come up with anything coherent. He should have crafted his own bill with details and a road map of why it’s structured this way, how we sell it etc., that scratched the itch of both parties, given to Pelosi and and said “here, this is what we need”. But instead he let them run wild.
What bothers me with Geithner’s disaster today is that after weeks of working on a plan, after multiple false leads as to what it would entail, after each of those false starts being rejected because they were un-implementable or just too expensive we come up with something so lame we are destined to go down the same road Japan did. What is scary is not the plan, what scary is this may be the best anyone can create in the American political system today. That is, have we created a problem so big with a political-Wall Street-inbreeding so deep we can’t save it?
NOV? Get a fucking clue.Listen 2 the CC dickhead.
Dude
You are out of your God damned mind if you are long rig makers, amidst a deflationary vortex, where oil is in the 30’s.
In short, you’re a rank and file idiot.
JJ, Mother Nature is ruling the roost now. Those people you think are so intellectually above everyone else are the dumbest guys in the room. They thought they could beat Mother Nature. WRONG. It’s not nice to fuck with Mother Nature. Guess you’ll learn too.
Fly, you’re out of your fucking mind to be long anything. Maybe test the lows…too funny. Try NEW LOWS fool.
New article from “The Great Roubini”
Nationalize the banks
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/255507/it_is_time_to_nationalize_insolvent_banking_systems
DEVIL DOG
It is not crazy to be long anything, considering the governments incessant attempts to prop up the markets. I thought you’d learn by now.
Prof, loved the Kurtz reference but figured you would go back to Conrad with your lit background and all…I guess you have to keep it simple for the less cultured
just fyi, non-related, the people don’t care.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEfICUoWKBw
Fly, they aren’t doing a very good job considering we’re below DOW 8000. Guess what…their BULLSHIT is turning into BULLDIARRHEA and it’s getting thinner and thinner. Hard to build even a decent BEAR MARKET rally on that. I thought you would have learned by now. Guess not. Odd no?
It would be a bull market if both Lady Guenevere and DEVILDOG fell down a flight of stairs. A bunch of fucking retards, regardless of their market position.
puny, how much long coin did you make today? I hope you bought the close. We’ll see who the retard is tomorrow and the next several weeks. Stupid dead cow.
Where the Hell is Dick Cheney, ask him. He is the best contrary indicator of all time. He has done more with being wrong than anyone.
JJ you are the type of guy that thinks someone is in control of everything. And that ability of being in control has something to do with IQ.
IQ just gets in the way of most stuff. Helps with multi-variable calculus though.
DevilDog – Mother Nature? You are fuckin kidding right? The govt makes the rules and has proven it will change/fudge them whenever it is convenient. I won’t try to argue about the level of shit the US economy is in with you…up to my knee or thigh really doesn’t make a difference to me.
Once the policy initiatives are accomplished over the next week and uncertainty about the fate of the majority of banks is gone (obviously no one is getting nationalized) money will pour in the market for a nice sized bounce up.
Quit reading economist’s bullshit and recognize the amount of manipulation and influence that is occurring.
They blew away earnings.Solid backlog and bullish outlook.
What in the fuck more can u ask for?
Ive been swing trading NOV for the last 4 month.$$$$
Waiting for a pullback to the lower 20’s to reenter for
another swing.
JJ,
I like your theory and I’d like to believe that these guys are smart enough to be playing it this way; but even if they are, it is still a short term answer. If they “let” the market retest the lows and then announce details that clear up a lot of uncertainty, the market can rally for a while. Maybe even a few months.
But I placed “let” in quotes because I don’t think anyone or any policy can do more than nudge the market and, at best, cushion the ride down. Currently, my outlook for the next few years is bearish but I’ll be looking to ease off of a few more of my shorts and take profits.
Nothing wrong with making money off both sides.
Crude
All that is irrelevant. No one will drill for oil in this environment. We are seeing cap ex budgets getting axed at the majors. NOV is painting an inaccurate and misleading picture for shareholders. No surprise here.
Look at past bust cycles and where it left rig makers.
DD,
Those fuckers might be painting broad brush strokes on purpose. You think these guys are just some assholes who haven’t thought of a few “what if” scenarios over the last 2 years? Maybe their goal is to strategically manage the release of specific information over the next few weeks in order to influence sectors, markets, or events around the world?
On the other hand, in the back of my mind I keep thinking about the whole “You have to scare the shit out of the people to get what you want, and convince them the change is in their best interest” thing, that we have been subjected to over the course of history. Maybe Geithner and crew will come out with the goods over the next 2 weeks, delivering some of the “hope” we were all secretly waiting for today. I hope they have a plan, and I hope they know what the fuck they are doing.
Dog
I do not debate the inevitable march lower to 500 S&P. However, it is highly unlikely that it will occur in Feb.
wiglebot – I’m referring to political IQ…different motivations for this administration than previous one. Everything is manipulated and controlled by someone/something…that is my fuckin point. Depends what the objective is.
Thinking this administration is clueless b/c their public response didn’t appease the market today or their politics differs with yours is naive.
BTW S&P is a subsidiary of McGraw Hill, not vice versa
JJ, you’re wrong. However, play it your way. BTW, I’m not kidding about Mother Nature. She is going to give you and your heroes a severe beat down. You won’t be getting up for at minimum a decade.
Fly, S&P @ 600 – 620 by the end of March.
Dog,
I thought you ere going to bed. What happened?
DDog,
“BTW, I’m not covering in the 700s tomorrow. My target is very, very, very low 600s…like 601.”
Why not cover ~7600 DOW soon, Long to 8200 and than short again to 6800. Sidesteo it down to 5500 by Sep.
Path of least resistance is and will be down for MONTHS. Ignore or short all bounces. Anyone who thinks there’s a meaningful rally in the works, is looking at the wrong painting. Once we get the banks to lend in earnest (could be a while) gold will be the only place to hang on to.
We are fucked. We might make a few bucks here but the victory might not be real considering what our nation might end up looking like in a year or two.
Can someone tell me why MS is not dying? I know GS owns US so they can steal themselves into “prosperity”, but what’s with MS?
Take it for what it’s worth, but this what I’m hearing from a buddy in that’s well plugged in
The plan is that the 5 big banks + GS and MS get saved while the rest are on their own and can go and get screwed. The government will telling people to just put their money in the big banks.
The strategy is to have massive consolidation and have a massively fewer banks.
that’s what I’m hearing and don’t know if it is true.
“My business, despite not really giving a fuck, has flourished to the point that I reject new money, as if it were tainted with polio.”
ROFL!
I only wish I had that luxury.
You da man, Senor Tropicana.
^
There are a lot Charlie Brown’s teachers posting today.
What a fucking circus.
Much to my shock viewing Peanuts Valentine this evening w/wife and tot low and fucking behold Charlie Brown’s teacher spoke. I fell off the couch laughing my stupid ass off with my wife and tot looking at me like I was completely nuts.
This is a really bad sign I think.
j, thanks for the FSUMF advice …
Asia called our bluff by only closing down 1/2 as much as our pathetic bear attempt of 5% that failed to “CRACK THIS MARKET ONCE AND FOR ALL”
See ya on the upside in the AM.
Something full of sunshine and daisy’s is due this week. Maybe a visit from St Valentine.
For Ritholtz fans:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/about-bailout-nation/
Unless he signed a really bad contract requiring MH to be compensated in some egregious, open-ended fashion for developing and/or marketing his book, he’s going to get more money from his next publisher.
Well, fly did point out CF awhile back and I put in a low ball buy order that struck a few weeks ago. Now my net gain on it is 31.4%. Yesterday it popped 5.73% while the rest of my portfolio was being Tim’d. Weird.
Hopefully things move up nice and easy today.
I am thoroughly fed up with the crap that CNBC spits out as news. Steve Leismen should have just shut his trap weeks ago, instead, he got more excited than a Japanese schoolgirl getting a glimpse at my cock over this bad bank crapola.
On another note, being bearish is to easy of a trade. Soon you monkeys will get comfortable yelling “America is doomed”. And ziiii..Bap your money is gone.
This is Nine-Fifty-S&P.Loud-Storm…Out
Good news …. No need to pay taxes!
Jake, since you’ve been on the right side of the refiner trade, what do you think of going the other way here?
Technically, they look vulnerable. Looking to start some short TSO VLO HOC WNR , or buy puts
All oil is traded in US dollars (isn’t it?). And since the dollar is a piece of sh*t, won’t oil (and oil stocks) rise quickly whenever the dollar comes under some serious pressure?
Howard Ruff – He’s one of those that’s predicted ten of the last two recessions (depressions).
Atlas…yes…oil will move opposite the dollar.
For all the CNBC haters (myself included)…try to familiarize yourselves with the MUTE button on your clicker. Problem solved.
Just Thinking, clicker? Seriously? How old are you?
I had an old ass TV in college. It had a one button clicker mechanical remote. Click the button and the TV advanced one station on the fourteen or fifteen channel rotary dial.
People are getting worn down. It’s only a matter of time before they just say ‘fuck it’ and go downhill with the market.
ASSHAT OF THE MONTH: Mel Karamazin
Fly sez:
DEVIL DOG
It is not crazy to be long anything, considering the governments incessant attempts to prop up the markets. I thought you’d learn by now.
I almost had to do a double take, ovah heah, because I thought someone had paraphrased one of Chivas’s e-mails to me.
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Which month: January or February? The tax cheat own Feb.
I agree with Mel K. for AOTM, another douchebag with a fake ass tan.
fake ass tan= instant asshat considerations.
bought UYG @ $3.12 yesterday, doubled position @ $3.05 pre market today, now I just wanna sell this shit for something other than a loss and get to cash
Dog;
You trade like a caveman on crack. No game just EGO.
I wish you good luck. Someday you will need it.
Holy crap, this is unbelievable. Chuck the Schmuck may bring back the guillotine all by his lonesome.
What a peckerhead!
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Unless he signed a really bad contract requiring MH to be compensated in some egregious, open-ended fashion for developing and/or marketing his book, he’s going to get more money from his next publisher.
I knew Anton worked at IMG!
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Technically, they look vulnerable. Looking to start some short TSO VLO HOC WNR , or buy puts.
You mean the direction of the charts or on a RS basis?
I’d stick with the RS indicators for now. If you’ve noticed, gasoline has been going up while earl has been going down.
That’s not a bad thing for them.
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Just Thinking, clicker? Seriously? How old are you?
My kids all call the remote “the clicker.” Big deal.
None of them are older than 11.
Maybe that was your point? (he says, upon review)
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