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Zombie is dead.
LOL This shit is funny good one fly!! lol Prince is screwed all the way up his ass indeed!LOL
A star is born. Let the glory be bestowed upon the people, that they might see themselves. Fly and Win are terms interchageable and interoperating; the Magi rolls the world.
good piece by the epicurean dealmaker a NYC based i-banker talking about Goldman’s (possibly) lost reputation.
As always he is an excellent read.
http://epicureandealmaker.blogspot.com/
“I have freedom… I can drown anyone.” Lol.
DD is in Daytona this weekend for the Rolex.
I believe he just past my house on I-4. The household pets have run under the bed and are howling with fright.
Can you tell us exactly the time he went past, TC?
Pets aren’t the only ones heading for comfort underneath a bed. Everyone’s hiding from the the Devil’s dog.
Is that the dude from SNL who used to yell, “Acting!” I forget his name.
That was funny. I stole it.
-DT
Great site .. funny stuff
Is Chuck Prince still dancing?
It’s always great to start the day with a laugh.
Classic shit Fly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO3On8PQa6I
“You know…I ah…I fingered a horse.”
verrnice.
Made my day…FAS..funny as shit
We get it! I’m very rich, you’r fucked. Whatever, who gives a shit about all this stuff? I just want to unwind, you know? (eats cake)”
hahahahahahhaa
Is it just me or is everyone else starting to get FUCKING SICK of these goddamn BELLY FAT ads. I plan on unleashing a fucking smurf attack on the originator this weekend. Time to mobilize the fucking botnets and take that fat slut Rachel Ray down. Doesn’t look like the shit worked for that fat ass ho.
http://ecochildsplay.com/files/2009/01/fat-ad1.jpg
Maybe Maria “I have a fat ass” Bartiromo is sponsoring the shit too.
fm – http://www.sentimentrader.com
Trader Commitments A Bit More Constructive
Posted: 23 Jan 2009 02:47 PM CST
I don’t place a lot of weight on this data any longer (for stocks only…it’s still good for bonds, commodities and currencies), but the latest Commitments of Traders data showed another relatively large move in trader’s positions in the major indices.
Looking at combined full and e-mini contracts, large commercial hedgers reduced their net short position against the market from $30.3 billion to begin the year down to $19.3 billion as of this past Tuesday. That’s the smallest hedge they’ve held since late October.
Small speculators have reduced their net longs by about 40%, to $10.6 billion. That’s also their smallest long position since late October.
Again, I’m not reading a whole lot into these numbers, and haven’t for about a year and a half. But I thought it was interesting nonetheless. All of the CoT charts have been updated on the site.
As I mentioned earlier, given the immediate rally off the gap down, the chances of a downside reversal back under 800 were greatly reduced, and we’ve seen decent strength all day…but we’re still mired under that 840-860 area that should be a tough nut to crack.
“Everytime I come here, pretending to care about your stoopid problems…it’s honestly…it’sexhausting!”
“I have freedom; I can drown anyone.”
“I’m getting tired, I want to have sex.”
Some extra tidbits one why I’m shorting more XOM next week.
Forbes December article on XOM (excellent read!)
http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/24/exxon-mobil-ge-ii-in_vk_1224moneyinvesting_inl.html
Insider Transactions (3m)
XOM (the only integrated oil with insider selling)
http://www.j3sg.com/Reports/Stock-Insider/Generate.php?DV=yes&tickerLookUp=xom&Submit232=GO
CVX
http://www.j3sg.com/Reports/Stock-Insider/Generate.php?DV=yes&tickerLookUp=cvx
TOT
http://www.j3sg.com/Reports/Stock-Insider/Generate.php?DV=yes&tickerLookUp=tot
BP
http://www.j3sg.com/Reports/Stock-Insider/Generate.php?DV=yes&tickerLookUp=bp
PBR
http://www.j3sg.com/Reports/Stock-Insider/Generate.php?DV=yes&tickerLookUp=pbr
You guys probably caught Carter Worth’s take on XOM last Thursday as well on Fast Money.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28800794
XOM = 5% of the S&P now
XOM = more than the banks in the S&P
Dude!!
I’m crying. Outstanding…. I just want to unwind. I want sex.
Every media outlet and blog on the planet is talking short XOM…
Yet, it just won’t go down.
Either way, it should make for interesting price action after earnings release.
Does anyone find this correlation to be a problem?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^DJUSEN&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=dug
Gapping, note how the leverage coupled with volatility has eaten away at DUG.
ROFL
gapping and shed, if you look at that on a 1 day, doesn’t it look like DUG has a bounce coming?
Granpa, I don’t know, on the longer term it looks like its going to turn down. Sure hope not I am in it but I am heavily long DXO too. DUG will eventually go to zero but then again all the inverses will at some point.
I dumped a nice chunck of DXO Friday that I picked up Tuesday. Nice!! Then picked up some DUG. Buck, buck and a half will be enough for me. Clocked DXO for 13.8% in one account and 11.55% in another. Good week:)
Will re-enter DXO or UCO if we get pullback. UYG is looking tempting too. I don’t have a time machine or crystal balls, 1 to 3 or 4 days is as far as I can see for the most part.
Mad money says SELL XOM yesterday, Barron’s today says BUY XOM for long term.
XOM is a hard one to trade. Everything points for a drop to at least $70, but that fucker just seems to defy gravity and all reason. The run up in SLB even after the sorry earnings report may be a clue to what is to come for the big oils next week. On thing I noticed in SLB’s report was that they don’t expect any breaks in contracts even though the market as declined this may have been part of the run up. Even if XOM misses and gives awful guidance there could be a run up in the stock. Why? Your guess is as good as mine. Fuck XOM
I haven’t laughed so hard all week. Quite literally, LOL. Thanks.
Oops, we lost it all!
lol.
I want to do have sex. Might if I eat some cake while we talk?
I get it, I’m rich; you’re fucked.
____________
Now I just need UW to beat UCLA and the weekend will be off to a perfect start.
Icelands gov’t collapses, thanks to credit crunch.
Coming soon to a country near you.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1126682/Icelandic-government-brought-credit-crunch.html
FLY
If much of the old guard in Congress was similarly disposed we would have a better chance at stesdying the boat..same imbeciles same ineptitude..and no more fucking Lawyers
I think this Summer we will see some pretty massive unrest. Where exactly, I don’t know.
Somewhat related, I think the UK is fucked.
Ozark H’Billy
I agree, the temptation will be matched by the anger and betrayal many will feel and “Anarchy in the USA” will be released by the 3 remaining Sex Pistols but all copies of the cd will be looted
From Fly’s Icelandic gov’t collapse story:
“…The seething crowd spattered the building with paint and yoghurt…”
Fortunately there is very little excess art supply and curdled milk inventory in places like Detroit and L.A., so we should be okay.
Don’t know about LA but I know a little something about Detroit and this city is already there. Where the politicos are crooked, urban fires are OK, radical Islam is to be admired, and where half of the city has fled in the last thirty years. Detroit’s mobs would probably throw molotov cocktails and call it living art.
PS To FLY: You can get some of Thaines office furniture for your office. It’s on Craig’s List.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28814830
too much negativity, new admin will throw a lot of money at the problem but in ways different from old admin. and it is gonna propel the market up and economy will bottom and recover my mid year. Buy XOM, bid it up 🙂
The more shit I see from this shit show in the White House the more I am starting to worry that this really won’t turn around. This shit is so unorganized and the fucker won’t even talk to the media, at least Bush did that. I am just wondering where the change is, only thing I see that changed was the color of the person in office.
the fucker won’t even talk to the media, at least Bush did
—————
you are just kidding right?
Actually, the Belgium government was the first to quit in December.
Uplifting words from Jim Jubak, “Is the Fed too big to fail?”
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/fed-looks-like-another-shaky-bank.aspx?OCID=eml_msnnl_6009.13.2.12&REFCD=emmsnnl_6009.13.2.12
Sorry to post a link to the fourth-tier MSN site, but Jubak is often pretty good.
The Belgian gov’t can no longer afford to meet at the Waffle House.
True story.
moderation? F@ck that noise.
They should go to the Waffle House on I-95 off the first Savannah exit. Their prices are lower than the others. You can get a pecan waffle with hash browns and onions plus coffee for under six bucks.
Plus the waitresses will insult you and the sweat will drip from their hairy armpits for extra flavoring (no charge).
The Waffle House near Odessa is the best.
togappingandyapping – Hey I heard the same thing on one of the conservative talk shows on the car radio this afternoon. I couldn’t figure out what she was talking about. I’ve seen the president on TV, radio, and YouTube so much in the last week, that even I’m getting tired of it, and I’m a political junkie.
Regarding the severity of our economic problems, I have no idea what it will take to get the jets re-fired. Tax cuts both business and payroll, and some stimulus I would guess. But I’m hearing $1.5 Trillion deficit, that’s some scary numbers. I guess as optimistic as I’d like to be, the reality is closer to a DevilDog nightmare. Whether it’s a lot of future inflation, or present deflation, neither looks very appealing.
to gappingandyapping: No he won’t ever talk to the media, have you watched the news lately or read about him? The media is fucking pissed about it too. Even the fucking homos in that place are pissed at him for not talking. I want the fucker to do good but he keeps fucking pissing on people and all this shit keeps coming out like the typical Chicago politician. Fucking IRS head not paying taxes, fucking lobbyists getting put in office I mean its just the same old shit with a different face. Change is now a lost hope.
Now you can proceed to tell me how I am 100% wrong and those news stories are fake yada yada… Its always a conspiracy with you people, no one ever fucking takes responsibility.
To the fucking retards who are always calling for a new bull market- we are at 8,000 retards. Shut the fuck up and play your position.
Change is not a comin’
Thanks for brightening up my weekend! Funny Shit!
“Jets re-fired” is a good way to put it. We’ve flamed out pretty close to the ground, it seems.
At some point there will be talk of another WPA to get pissed off unemployed folks off the streets to head off DD’s nightmare. I don’t see unemployment getting any better for a long time as it is. Even if you’ve got the money, do you really want to spend it right now? Anybody with any sense looks at their portfolio and/or 401k performance last year and is trying to save.
Geez, this blog used to be a lot more fun.
Off to buy guns & ammo.
Why is Exxon still up? Long term investors want a safe haven for their cash. Oil will always be needed. Exxon is the safest long term oil and gas company. Period.
They produce a tangible useful thing, and they do it really well. They have 25 billion bucks sitting around for when oil price goes to $20/bbl so they can snap up the assets of a bunch of their competitors.
A lot of people don’t want to buy anything with the words “financial” or “bank” in the title anymore. Fair enough. Perception of Exxon, and in fact history of Exxon shows it to be a stable and safe investment. And they don’t hold mortgage paper.
I’ll be surprised if Exxon sees major downside anytime soon. Especially with banks going down over the next couple years and the competition lacking long term counter-cyclic vision. But if oil prices collapse further, which they will, Exxon will go down. But not as much as their competition will.
Just a few thoughts from Mars.
o yea, like our prev chief talked to media while taking down the country… i donot like people at the top do not pay taxes but to say that prev prez tallked to media all the time and current does not is laughable. give the guy a month or two before jumping on him. and stop listening to “conservative” talk shows – be progressive 🙂
Funny, go2mars, I heard the same logic from people long MSFT the last few months (especially the clowns on Fast Money) — huge company, tons of cash, safe, a true survivor, no toxic assets, etc.
In fact, the same arguments have been made in favor of all the other “recession-proof large-caps”. Check PG, WMT, KO or PEP for a flavor of the ass-pounding XOM is about to receive.
agree with go2mars. Oil was $1 at the gas stations about 10 years ago and we were at about $1.50 just a week or two ago. I donot think it goes to $1. It would defy all laws of nature – we print dollars at will and it takes work to get limited resource out of ground. Most likely will go up, maybe not immediately but is going to creep up to 50 then consodlidate then go to 70 and then consolidate. They do not make new oil anymore.
Barron is incredibly, pervasively negative this weekend. I’ve never seen it like this.
I think we’re within a week or 2 of launching a decent rally into April.
all this negativity… Anton’s piece about the future credibility of the Fed due it is actions, the fucked up positions of Japan, the EU, the UK, Australia, China. Doesn’t this mean that gold is heading higher?
On Monday, i’m adding to my long gold against sterling position.
Juice,
I have the same gut feeling you do, but I still think the S&P-500 takes one last dip (courtsey of disappointing integrated oil earnings) to shake the last dip-buyers out before we rally into April (I’m with you on April as well — this market’s been trading in similar fashion to that of 1929-1932). Based on that, this rally, which began in mid November, should last 6 months, taking us into April. Then, we shit the shower — BIG TIME.
What’s your April assumption based on, btw?
Just came across this.
Dinosaurtrader has exclusive footage of The Fly’s blockparty up !
http://dinosaurtrader.blogspot.com/
gotta scroll down 3 posts.
pretty cool chart of where all the Tarp $$ has gone:
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/st_BANKMONEY_20081027.html
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/modern-resources-of-wall-street/print/
I’m making a fortune!!! My whole strategy is to do the opposite of whatever Fly recommends and I’m guaranteed to make money. Thanks Fly!!!
This is an unpleasant picture of the financial situation.
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/01/longterm-charts-of-the-financial-sector.html
Walmart should be granted a bank charter. All the forthcoming empty bank branches would make for really nice 7-11s.
Phil … sure, next week we could retest spx 800 again . Soon after that, much of the obvious shit earnings reports will have been baked in and we can begin the time between Q4 & Q1 earnings, not much news, armaggedon already baked in, fantasy recovery …. until Q1 earnings & guidance or lack thereof, flow in April.
Then I assume we back off but who knows, we may try to attack those highs again mid summer before we begin a brutal 50-60 % slide.
I love this chart
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-extended-large.gif
It looks like a decent roadmap, thus far.
Prepare for the Obama crash tomorrow! Shit is dire now and he doesn’t want to talk to anyone, just smiles. Shit eating grins don’t save the financial system fuckface.
Top Pick: SHORT IT ALL!
Marc Faber – fm Barron roundtable
Faber: I’m not optimistic about the global economy. The next Madoff case — the next Ponzi scheme — is the U.S. government. It will go bust. It is only a question of time. The fascinating thing about asset markets today is that everything is connected — the dollar, the economy, equity and bond markets, currencies. When one thing moves, so does something else. That makes the market ideal for short-term traders. Last year it was easy to see that the dollar was oversold and pound sterling was overbought, that the yen was relatively cheap and financial markets were expensive, that the economy would worsen and commodities would come under pressure. Today the private markets are deleveraging, governments around the world are throwing money at the system, and there is huge volatility. Everybody says stocks are cheap because they’re down 50% from the peak. But Japan was at the same level four weeks ago as in 1981. Korea was at 1988 levels. These markets are relatively cheap because in 20 years there has been progress. If the U.S. went back to 1990 levels, the Standard & Poor’s 500 would be at 300.
It’s not impossible.
Faber: That would be an interesting entry point. Having said that, the market gave back in the 14 months ended Nov. 21 as much as in 1973-74. Stocks became oversold. People may interpret the coming fiscal and monetary reflation as slightly more favorable, and stocks might rise. You can have a horrible economic backdrop and markets that move up.
Also, the worse the crisis, the greater the polarization between good companies and those that don’t have money to do R&D and expand market share. And by the way, it is a grave error to support weak companies like General Motors [GM]. In a deflationary crisis you want to get the supply down as quickly as possible.
How you play this market depends on your time frame and objectives. If you want to build some exposure in Asia, buy high-quality companies that will survive. In Singapore, that includes Fraser & Neave, United Overseas Bank and OCBC, which is run by an American, David Conner. In Hong Kong, I like Swire Pacific and Sun Hung Kai Properties. Asian banks never understood CDOs [collateralized debt obligations], so they didn’t buy a lot.
Schafer: Nobody understood them.
Faber: Asians might go to casinos and gamble, but in their businesses they are ultra-conservative. In Thailand, buy Bangkok Bankand, Glow Energy, and in India, Icici Bank and Infosys Technologies. Banks in Singapore sell for 1.3 times book. In Thailand they are below book and have relatively high dividends. If all these companies drop another 50%, which I wouldn’t rule out, buy more.
Black: What are their approximate P/Es?
Faber: Maybe 10, 12 times earnings, but who knows what earnings will be?
When market volatility goes up dramatically, you want to be in defensive groups like pharmaceuticals and food. When volatility diminishes, you want to be in cyclical industries. Among the most cyclical stocks are resource producers. They were driven up by incremental demand from China, and then collapsed. In the next six months they could have significant upside. I like Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and CVRD [Companhia Vale do Rio Doce].
The financial crisis and collapse in commodities will keep supplies out of the market. Nobody is exploring now. There is no money, and projects are being postponed. Whenever the recovery comes, in five or 10 years, resources stocks will go ballistic from today’s low levels. If you’re optimistic about the next six months, too, when the news may be slightly better than today, you should own them. Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold fell from 127 to 15 and is now 26. Xstrata, in Switzerland, is another one. A lot of these stocks are more attractive than gold, because gold is at a 20-year high relative to industrial commodities.
Black: Rio Tinto’s balance sheet isn’t in good shape. They have a refinancing issue.
Faber: Worst-case, the Chinese government could buy them out. China has taken a big stake in the company. Meryl recommended Kaiser Aluminum [KALU] earlier today. I would add Alcoa.
Zulauf: You’re not saying this is the beginning of a big bull market, but of a base-building process from low levels.
Faber: Correct, but when stocks decline by the magnitude seen in resources shares, or the Nasdaq after 2000, a base-building period follows that can extend for several years. When you print money, you can get an artificial bull market that exceeds everyone’s expectations.
In a recovery driven by easy money, zero interest rates and fiscal deficits, emerging markets — the most cyclical part of the global economy — can rebound. There is 50% upside in the Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund, the iShares MSCI Brazil Index, the Templeton Russia and East European Fund, the Greater China Fund, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index and the Turkish Investment Fund. Everything is bad in Japan, but they’re used to it for 20 years, so Japanese stocks might not go down more.
Next, the Treasury market won’t continue to rally. The inflection point in long Treasuries may have arrived. The yield on the 30-year bond is back up to 3%. The U.S. Treasury market is the short of the century. You can short it through the TBT [ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yr exchange-traded fund.] It goes up in price when bonds go down and yields go up. As an ultrashort fund, it moves 200% inverse to the move in Treasuries with maturities of longer than 20 years.
MacAllaster: That’s leverage.
Faber: We’re used to leverage. It may take two years to work out. On the long side, the Nicholas-Applegate Convertible & Income Fund trades around 5. The junk-bond market and convertible securities could rally substantially, as corporate bonds have done. The Federal Reserve’s move to buy up assets will lead others, including Bill Gross at Pimco, to front-run the government and buy the same assets. High-yield bonds and mortgage-backed paper could rally.
I agree with Felix’s bullish view of gold, except that gold prices might not go up until later in the year. The price was up 5% in U.S. dollars and much more in other currencies in 2008, and people may sell it first to buy something lower-priced. Felix pointed out [in last week’s Roundtable installment] that gold-exploration companies have been decimated by the financial crisis. I see the potential for a huge rebound. A lot of exploration companies are selling for 2 or 3 a share, which is like buying an option with a very, very long expiration date. If the global economy improves, they can probably produce. If not, prices will go ballistic because there will be no new supply. Gabriel Resources, in Canada, trades for 1.60 Canadian dollars. Newmont Mining [NEM] owns a sizable stake.
Zulauf: Valuing such companies is difficult. They will either work out and you’ll make five or 10 times you money, or they won’t.
Faber: One day the price of gold will be higher than the Dow Jones. The CRB, a broad index of commodities, fell for 20 years in nominal terms, from 1980 to 1999. It is now up 12% and is still inexpensive. The Dow and the S&P are up substantially from the 1980s or early 1990s. Everyone thinks fiscal and monetary measures will work to fix the financial system. I don’t. They will be disastrous and fuel inflation. But the supply of oil, gas and copper is relatively limited compared to paper money you can print.
Recently I bought some U.S. stocks for the first time in a long time. If you buy Intel , Cisco , Yahoo! , Oracle and Microsoft , you will do much better in the next 10 years than you would with Treasuries. These stocks will double and even triple — before going to zero.
Here’s a link to a High Res panoramic zoom-able image of the inauguration.
http://gigapan.org/viewGigapanFullscreen.php?auth=033ef14483ee899496648c2b4b06233c
Although that was a skit, wasn’t too far from the truth how the world does not give a crap about the problems we imposed on ourselfs.
Basically, Barron’s could short cut the whole round table thing with a one sentence summary stating:
“the consensus among our experts is that nobody has a fucking clue”
I think I’ll go back to re-reading a few priceless Jesse Livermore quotes.
gappingandyapping –
Shut the fuck up you attention deficit dipshit. The man has been president for less than 1 fucking week and you already have him pegged? What a worthless, negative, devisive piece for shit! Hasn’t talked to the media? How many fucking times did you see him in front of the camera last week taking care of business in his first 4 days in office. Unbelievable.
Fly,
Meant to apologize for not kudo’ing you on that Thain letter. You’ve been posting so much in the last couple of days its been hard to keep up. You must be in a manic phase. I know the feeling.
Doubling the kudos with the Alaweed find. Just pure hilarity. Is that a Howard production?
___________
I have something on language — a present I received for Christmas. I may share some of it on the Peeg. Stay tuned…
_______
Jake, you know I’m a fan of language. Post that shit!
Danny,
Thanks for asking. Done.
I am going to have a lot of fun with this, I think.
______
Alvari40: Then when will the man answer the questions we have for him. He hasn’t answered any thus far and if Bush was have said this he would have been castrated on the spot and told that he was hiding something. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0109/17831.html
http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/obama/1326788,rahm-emanuel-blagojevich-obama-121108.article
Over and over and over everyone has been told of this huge change and hope coming, when will the shit come? Its always its going to come but so far all of the appointments have been the same old people from other administrations doing the same old shit. Most of whom have a very spotty and clouded record. I was hoping for change but I guess that’s too much to ask for, oh well I guess more of the same will do for me as long as they don’t fuck up my taxes.
Top Pick, as always while Obama is ducking questions: Short it everything, except oil.
This should be fun to watch…it looks like Al-Qaeda and right-wing publications like the Politico now have something in common – their hatred for Obama.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/24/AR2009012401703.html
Now all we need is for the economy to rally so all of the Depression enthusiasts can join hands with these groups – as misery loves company.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTU5MjE3MmQ0NWU1Zjc1YzYyMDE1NzNmZmM2MzYxMmI=
On the subject of prophecies from Brazil_Phils peanut post.
http://theyfly.com/Red_Meteor.html
Who is the leading investor of these times? It is John Paulson by measure of billions. He predicts that it will be well into 2010 before things turn – I assume that he means the economy – not the stock market.
Goat detained in Nigeria.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE50M4XT20090124