China’s economy is crashing, as evidenced by the incessant weakness in oil/coal. Soon, we will learn of pleasant news, such as California’s pending bankruptcy and sky rocketing unemployment—God willing.
Within commercial real estate, more than 125,000 stores will be boarded up in the first half of 2009. To fill that void, well, there is nothing but PNRA and a few local banks. For the most part, banks will not be opening up new branches, like in past recessions. And, SBUX is no longer in the business of opening new stores.
Let’s not forget big chains like Linen and Things and CC will soon be home to thousands of rodents and homeless dudes.
So, where will KIM, VNO and BXP make their money, if their fucking tenants are digging their own graves?
Answer: Government soup kitchens.
Look, men like Cramer are assholes. I really needed to express that. I mean, this old fucker was screaming for everyone to sell X @$27, right at the lows. Remember that? Now at $40+, he is telling you to “get on board the Obama infrastructure play.” WTF?
He is a fucking idiot, of the first order. He is always wrong and should be faded, 95% of the time—with the blessings of all of the stock Gods.
There is a danger listening to the “glass half full” crowd. Incidentally, they’ve been EXACTLY wrong about everything, from the beginning of this crisis, up until now. All of the crazy eyed bears, like “The Great Roubini” and Meredith Whitney, have been 100% right, thus far.
Why bet against them, now?
Nonetheless, I am sure the bulls have some more to throw at this thin tape, so be ready to get long for the scalp. However, in my opinion, until proven wrong, these rallies should be taken out to the back, in order to get its fucking brains blown out.
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The Fly is God.
Booyah!
Why bet against them, now?
I’ll give you a hint:
You’ve likely got two or three of them in the garage, what with all those kids.
You know I am not a bull. Why do I act this way?
Lance Armstrong knows, because he does this before every race.
Just to see how many guys he has to beat.
_____________
DDog, I buy some of your longer term bear trend, but oil @ $15, NFW.
Even a 10 yr worldwide depression will not do that – especially w the inflated dollars.
Commodities go up in depressions – look it up. Supply drops faster than demand drops.
Fly,
Everything you’ve posted has been insightful and correct. This post makes way too much sense. All I want to know is.. what will tomorrow bring me? I know you know.
No?
Cramer is a grade A asshole. It pisses me off when he tries to take credit for warning people about the bear market, when in reality he was ridiculing the responsible people who were really trying to warn the masses last year.
I will volunteer for the firing squad when the revolution takes hold. No blank rounds for me either; I will be sure to bring my own ammo so that I know the job gets done.
ahhh sensibility, and a post, at the same time. No it can’t be.
It is.
iBC may as well close up for the holidays early because that post is all you need to read. Leave it to Fly to capture the reality and write about it excellently.
Innovation is always forgotten, isn’t it?
VNO and BXP will open mobile tent malls and tent skyscrapers, squatting at various open land sites for one to three days, until the railroad bulls “run them out of Dodge,” but in the mean time ensuring propitious coin for their common shareholders for years to come.
_______
Cramer made money in the late 90s being a bull. How hard was that? Also, from what I hear, it was his wife who had the trading instincts. Cramer runs a circus for entertainment. To the uninitiated, he really seems to know what he’s talking about. I bet he’s cost average Joe’s more than Madoff over the years.
http://www.charonboat.com/
DD if ya like carnage this site is for you.
When flat screen plasmas and spicy buffalo wings are plentiful, Joey Bag-o-Credit cards is fat, dumb and happy to continue to go to work and produce. He buys his alcohol and he gets his sex for free at home.
When Yo-Joe loses his bullshit job, his phony credit cards, and production and productivity are 5′ 10″ into the grave, all he has left is alcohol and sex–but now he brews his own shit and has to pay for his sex with inflated dollar bills.
So what the hell am I saying? Beats me. But there’s more to economics, monetary happenings and personal wealth than meets the eye. The Egregiosity has only begun, and my money is on continued pain for all.
X has had 10M+ sh volume for the past 8 trading days. Short X? Don’t think so.
Love the XOM short call, however I think it is too logical for the market at this time.
I find things that make absolutely no sense tend to be working better this month… like AZO putting another 500 mil worth of debt to work buying back their own stock near a 52 week high regardless of the fact that their balance sheet looks like the federal governments… shitty.
I’m sure that will go higher.
My portfolio can be seen on charonboat.com
From rigzone:
Cash-rich oil companies are not going to save the holidays for disheartened investors as the economic crisis forces Big Oil to cut back on share-buyback programs.
Major oil companies made investors happy in recent years by steering billions they garnered from high oil and natural gas prices to share repurchases. When oil prices soared, companies had money to invest in these programs, and increase dividends, boost their spending in capital projects and even make some acquisitions.
But as the financial crisis worsens and oil prices fall – hovering at about $44 Tuesday or more than $100 below its all-time high in July – major oil companies now have to be cautious and prioritize spending…
The battle for the markets will be in January. In one corner, is the bears and their fundamentals. In the other corner is the bulls, the Fed, the Treasury, the Mesiah, and other foreign governments. Should be a healthy battle–may the best beast win.
Fly,
what would change your mind? if it’s price level, what price level? knowing that price precedes good news, what is it that you need to see?
i pose the same question to all bears here.
Jake,
what did Lance do?
Looks like the market wanted to go much higher today. If we break 920 we could be on our ways to new highs any day now. With all of the new jobs created by Chrysler and GM why not just go 300% long this cash cow. Top pick SPY 200 calls!
— James J. Cramer
Sounds like FLY is embracing Deflation
what did Lance do?
Counted…
the…
Cycles!
______
Chivas,
Lance had one of his balls removed.
Makes a guy ornery as hell and twice as competitive.
What about the PPT coming to the rescue
oil not doing so well afterhours…..
as larry kudlow would say “its a tax break for middle america”
FLY – Your ANALysis is good but you don’t see the big picture. That is, the FED will transfer $1 million into the bank accounts of every single American household if necessary, to get us out of this slump. Are you going to bet against the FED and their decillion ( true number) dollar balance sheet. Who wants to fuck with the FED.
IN all seriousness you and countless Americans could wake up tomorrow and see an extra $1 million in your bank account. Now your first reaction will be to think this has to be a bank error in your favor. So you will quietly transfer that sum out of your account into cash. And then you will start spending it. Across America, a mysterious phenomenon will start taking place as Americans armed with cold hard cash start buying . Buying EVERYTHING ! Plasma’s, computers, electronics gizmos, clothes, cars it doesn’t matter. Consumer spending will rocket upwards much to the amazement of all market analysts. Dow 50,000 here we come.
Oh and since DEVILDOG doesn’t have a bank account due to his lack of trust in our banking system, he will not be a beneficiary of that $1 million FED injection. Much to his chagrin, his investment portfolio consisting of Ultra Short ETFs will disintegrate to pennies and he will be forced into bankruptcy. Ferrari F430 and DDs all up for auction. Odd no ?
Hitler had one testicle removed also – just trivia that you do not need, but removal of one would tend to make one less aggressive, no? The DOW and SP 500 have head and shoulder bottoms formed – bear market rallies can allow you to bank coin.
funny stuff cap.
Cap if the fed trans 1 million into every americans bank account it would have a net zero effect. Long term of course.
…but removal of one would tend to make one less aggressive, no?
True, but half a man may be tempted to overcompensate via other means. Hitler, of course, went on a power kick of epic proportions.
Meanwhile, with one less testicle getting painfully squished against a bicycle seat, Armstrong had less pain to ride through, thus he had an unfair physical advantage over his competitors.
wouldnt take me to long to spend that mill
Soon the Messiah will come with gifts from the gods. Willing to put 1 Trillion out there why not give it to the 170Million or so tax payers, that way everyone will get $10,000. That shit will buy a lot of crack and keep cocaine farmers in business.
If you have 1 fucking Trillion to give out to some shit in America beit either the “People” or Corporations who would you give it to?
I’ll smoke the shit out of a 20 rock right now!
hahaha If you search Amazon in the Books section for “Great Chefs of America Cook Kosher” you will find the cookbook Ruth (Mrs. Bernie) Madoff co-authored, complete with a one-star review from someone commenting on her husband.
Personally I find it weird that Bloomberg keeps mentioning in their articles about Madoff’s scheme that Ruth Madoff wrote a cookbook… my response is, SO??! what the horse does that have to do with anything?
Fly, good post.Are u nibbling on FXP?
I am done with FXP.
I rather short LFC or CHL directly.
I still own FAZ and I bought more SRS today.
I am short XOM, but long some ERX, go figure.
I am not really leaning any which way. But my gut says, eventually, the chickies come home to roost.
From now until Jan 20th, we may have a lift.
well, cramer wrong again. he said about 2 weeks ago that oil would not go below $40. It is trading below that tonight. Oil to $15.
Hitler and Lance Armstrong also suffer/ed from phantom nut syndrome. They would go to scratch the missing nut and … well, you get the picture.
Fly, Thanks.
Devildog,I hope oil drops.Will load up on UCO for a swing trade.
Did Cramer make a prediction for new lows this month? Just checking – I do not watch Cramer. Asia opens mostly green, but nothing spectacular.
cramer is super bullish now…and wrong again.
fuck china.
Ever read Confessions of a Street Addict? That fucking idiot was managing billions and had no fucking clue.
Boca
They mention Ruth Madoff to make her guilty by association. When you are the pick of the week, the news loves to tar all family members with the same brush.
Look for a Titan punch higher on Friday with a slow arc over the top for the remainder of December. High fives from men smoking big stogies. Smoked-out stogie butts will hit the floor mid Jan from men with gaping holes in their faces as the market explodes and crashes on Wall Street. New York will than try to tax the shit out of it’s neighbors.
Isn’t it odd how the market has a way of short term punishing a portfolio constructed with rational thought.
phd in psych,
Am I crazy or is it cold in here?
Thanks in advance.
Cramer is bought and paid for.Can u say off shore bank account.He not dumb as he looks.
hope it wasnt something i said
Just heard from buddies @ GS – what a change.
In the good years, everybody bitched about bonus comp.
No bitching this year despite the shitty comp outlook.
I cant wait to see the tax payers face when they get the bill for all this spending. Holy crap.
People dont realize tax rates during the last 20 years have been cheap. After the great depression followed by ww 2 tax rates sky rocketed.
So heres a Q. After each bubble one industry never comes back. we saw it with dot coms in the late 90’s, rail roads in the 1800’s, the dow for nearly 50 years after the great crash.
what will it be this time ? Consumer credit. Na thats the golden goose, sub prime mortgages?
I really have no idea, but one industry wont make it back.
i think when it all gets put back to normal precious metals will drop and drop big time and wont make a comeback for another 20-50 years
FLY
How about an infrastructure play RAIL and GBX go long cattle cars.
William,
What makes you think that your thoughts are rational? Be willing to accept the possibility your complete wrongness, after accepting an argument that you believe more. This might be where a calculator brain comes in handy. Fly was just talking about this stuff…
Fly-
I too went short XOM today. I decided on the trade after watching oil fail to respond to the cuts announced by opec. Even though they announced cuts that does not mean that all members will comply. Shit, most of their economies are on the ropes due to the dumbass spending when oil was $100. They will continue to pump, oil is the only form of revenue they have. If they cut production, that’s less revenue and their economy suffers even more. Pretty simple. Screw XOM its time for it to give a little back. Up $9 in less than two weeks. Too far too fast IMO
I’M BAAAAAAA-AAAAAACK!!!
load up on everything . the new bull market is in the womb.
the bull will be born and spit all left over placenta on all the procastinators. within a few years unemployment will be close to zero. The money the government can spend dwarfs the imagination. think in terms of what they spent on world war 2 in todays dollars. boom time is around the corner.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQr2vnbm4Jww&refer=home
AIG will need more $ and they will get it.
What a country
Needle Dick: I-banks
Until Joe Schmuck has his credit card debt zeroed out, this is a wild, pissed off grizzly bear that needs to take a huge shit badly and is looking for a toilet. Can’t find one. That kind of bear.
Today was horrifying. I will never buy rubbery wal-mart cheese again. I also have a newfound respect for those who have to squeeze large objects through small holes. I had trouble walking after my trip to the toilet today.
On a lighter note, it looks like the S & P is creating a rising wedge at the moment. Tomorrow’s action will be crucial. A break in the trend line could be fatal to the current rally attempt. A breakout above the wedge’s horizontal roof is also trade-able. Either way, tomorrow’s action is likely to be violent, one way or another.
It’s time to Ride the Bucking Bronco.
Is fucking Jim Cramer for real? Is this a fake show or is he seriously fucking cum on my tits whore bullish? I can’t fucking believe this man. Either we are dead fucking wrong or this man should be involuntarily admitted. He is over there sucking Uncle Ben’s cock now saying Housing is about to fucking monsoon hurdle and fucking Ag’s are going to all time highs. Banks are just rolling in coin and people will be buying houses hand over fist. Recession/Depression fucking over, get back to work you fucking idiots. He is not devaluing the dollar he says. Then what the fuck is he doing cum queen inflating it? So your telling me the dollar went up today? He is truly a dangerous person, booyah, how can you say booyah when you are down fucking 40% on the year. How do you possibly tune in to this fuckface? Its pure comical.
I started posting about a theoretical trading method and Fly starts posting bad news.
And as CAP was pointing out – don’t forget the consumer.
They’re not spending nada. Every union employee knows that at some point their shop steward is going to sell them out and every person in cubicle land knows their boss sees them as a cost and not a benefit.
That kind of makes spending painful.
anyway to chp 11 a student loan. My lawyer friend wants to know. No joke.
S&P 500 is 2% above the 5DMA.
I think maybe at most 10 points on tomorrow’s upside.
But historically, looks like tomorrow is headed down.
Negativity – horseshit.
Went to pick my son up from college today. A 6 hour drive to and fro wound up taking 8 hours … so many fucking trucks on the road that it slowed interstate traffic. If we’re in a depression …. where the fuck are all these god damn trucks coming from? And where the hell is all their freight being shipped to and from? Trucks fucking everywhere. EVERYWHERE. Recession my ass.
Those trucks are being re-purposed as homeless shelters. They are duplexes.
Those trucks are delivering the new Burger King perfume to fatties everywhere.
http://www.firemeetsdesire.com/
Those trucks are delivering “air” to the fed, used to hydraulically lift markets to new heights.
I’m out of quips. Help, please.
Today’s weakness in oil might be attributable to Obama’s nomination of Vilsack as Agri secretary. As pointed out by Gary (http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/) Vilsack is on record for reducing greenhouse emmissions. This jibes with today’s strength in alternative energy in spite of oil weakness.
The trucks are delivering cold hard treasury cash, to asshole banks.
It’s bonus time!
You know ive been seeing lots of trucks up and down I-45 most hauling half loads and full loads of oil drilling equipment. Have not seen wind mill blades.
Don’t kid yourself. Cramers antics and misdirections are well scripted beforehand. His job, as an insider and rep for CNBC, is to mislead the hoopleheads, plain and simple.
Those trucks are carrying the Vornado tent skyscrapers and the Simon Property Tent Malls, from railroad yard to railroad yard.
They must clog the roads in order to escape the vindictive railroad bulls.
Ask your hobo grandpa, he knows.
___________
Thread Californians! WTF?? Have you HEARD what your wonderful state gummymint has in store for YOU?
Let me tell you, this schit makes Blind Boy Patterson’s taxing the iPod earplugs sound Reaganistic.
39 cents NEW gas tax??
2.5% ADDITIONAL STATE INCOME TAX SURCHARGE??
On top of 10.5%???
WTF!!??
Give it back to Mexico, now.
_______
i just filled up my car for < $30.
i’m so happy; i’m going to buy a stock tomorrow!
Canadian here! did anyone see the TSX today?….no? Well that’s because the TSX had a technical glitch…………maybe those trucks had something to do with ‘it’ being halted……WTF? Any theories?
Aris — hope you don’t live in Cali. That Austrian wanker is trying to bring back the gas crisis, single handedly.
And no cuts to the budget… of course.
How do people stand for it?
_____
Pharm company I work for laid of 5% (flat tax every department). India division still hiring. One could make an arguement that the least productive go and the company is stronger. Still it affects moral and everyone who witnesses it is less likely to go and buy that plasma or Lexus. Some will panic and pull money from the market, and some will be forced to go to cash in order to pay that morgage or alimony as the case may be. Next year there will be at least 10% laid off. At this point, you start cutting into the guts that drives the machine affecting future profits (5-10 years), bonuses, growth. The market may go up into 2009 with Obama frenzy, but I don’t see the economy getting better in 6 months. More likely 1.5-2 yrs. The rate cut is the easiest for most people to understand and react to, so what now? Is the fed going to start paying people to borrow money? When reality sets in, Devil Dog will have his day (as will FLY as I am sure he will be on the winning side…)
P.S. Went to a central NJ mall on a weekday. Quit. Even the workers didn’t want to be there.
Eye No Stuff ….
Those trucks are busy making “just-in-time” inventory deliveries as nobody can order stuff until they can pay COD.
Those trucks – maybe the drivers are just so fucking happy about $1.50 gas … they’re just filling up and driving around empty so they can buy even more cheap gas? Hell, I don’t know. But the interstate highways are jammed with fucking trucks.
Recession – horseshit. You people need to get out from behind your bullshit trading screens and drive around the highways for a few hours, then you’ll stop all this horseshit negativity. Freight is fucking moving in volume across this country. Count the fucking trucks – they don’t lie.
obi wan, i don’t live in CA, fortunately. i almost moved there once upon a time, but i was lucky to have recovered from that illness before there was permanent damage.
Enough talk about oil, economics and Great Depressions.
Here is my Christmas List I gave to my wife tonight:
A fragrance called “Blue Seduction” by Antonio Banderas.
.
.
.
.
WTF is this? First of all, are there dudes out there clamoring for new fcking “fragrances”? And if they are, are they clamoring for fragrances by, how you say, Antonio Fcking Banderas, of all people??!
This might be the Black Swan event that Taleb warned us about.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQYWp9bvshs
Boomer – those trucks… – funny.
Needle,
“anyway to chp 11 a student loan. My lawyer friend wants to know. No joke.”
I don’t know but I’ll answer anyway –
yes, but it won’t help.
The banks and credit card companies rewrote the bankruptcy laws so there was no escape (or so they thought)
The BK lawyers tell broke people it’s “the way out”. They take their (client/victim’s)money and most “fall out” of bancruptcy. ie can’t make new payments.
Before the re-write if you bought a bunch of expensive junk on your 15 credit cards but couldn’t pay; they wiped away the debt – “fresh start”. So sorry banks.
Post re-write – you can’t make your payments, the court gives you a break – temporarily. Then they take all the payments you didn’t make + all the fees, etc. add it up and divide by 60 mos. and tell you now have to start making your old payments you couldn’t/didn’t make + a new additional 60 mos. payment. Hmmmm, wonder how successful that has been.
Plan B They couldn’t re-possess Joe-16-creditcard’s worthless junk so they made it real easy for anyone (Joe…) who could fog a mirror to buy a house, get a HELOC (home equity line of credit) and pay off those hi rate credit cards with with low, low, low 2nd mortgage money. Now they (banks) gots real Real Estate collateral on all of Joey-16cc’s wife’s tattoos, Joey’s cigarette boat (in the back yard)… geniuses. Needless to say, things ain’t working out quite the way they planned.
GBP may be cooked Vs. Yen and USD. AUD melting up huge.
Cramer is king asshat and has the Fly award to prove it.
But its table pounding like his that makes SnP ~1k a decent probability.
Dont forget we have intial claims etc later today.
re: picking on Madoff’s wife
It’s a classic squeeze play by the authorities. They don’t care about her but want to use her as leverage to get him to reveal more.
The guy’s entire life has been a lie, he’s had many years to make up this latest story. Why would he be telling and nothing but the truth now.
Great essay, Fly!
Cogent on the Half Shell!!
Ted and libor print lower.
BOJ meets tomorrow and will go to zero beginning the process of monetization which is why Japanese banks are up.
The Feds action is the biggest card game in Vegas. They’re basically betting that their action will force the BOJ and the stupid Euros to do monetize. The stupid Euros are a coupla months away. They’ll be forced to.
I added to my bank stock today on the open. Wish me luck 🙂
I’m also buying some debt… Fed Ex looks like it’s a decent play.
j-
What banks did you add. Don’t you think that the banks days are numbered with the yield curve flattening. Not that they are lending right now, but it seems to me that they will be even more reluctant to lend with a flat or even inverted yield curve.
longs are fucked. Lucky my limit order for FAS didn’t hit yesterday. I think this is a trading range play until the end of the year. Not a big rally.
Moe
I added a little to my citi position and bought some JPM which is anew position…. also bought some Aussie bank down here.
Yep, the yield curve is flattening but ” zero” cash rate is like what is supposed to happen at the speed of light. All sort of weird things are supposed to occur. Their lending spreads are enormous.. and they can fund at close to zero now on the cash rate.
And then you have this:
Dec 17 (Reuters) – Morgan Stanley on Wednesday sold $2.5 billion in bonds that will be backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp in a self led deal, IFR said.
The sale included $2 billion in two- and three-quarter year fixed rate notes priced to yield 107.9 basis points over comparable U.S. Treasuries, and $500 million in two- and three-quarter year floating rate notes priced at 35 basis points over the three month London interbank offered rate
These guys were on their last legs two months ago and now with FDIC backing they’re issuing bonds and notes.
It’s now getting to the stage where the only bond issuers are banks while the commercials will have to go begging to them.
We could have an enormous rally in corporate paper next year so if they load up on term assets the could make oodles of cash.
The Merrill Heroes:
“Clawing back the 2006 bonuses at Merrill would not come close to making up for the company’s losses, which exceed all the profits that the firm earned over the previous 20 years.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/18/business/18pay.html
MOE
What you’re going to get now is a rush out of money market funds and into banks. Banks will be pregnant with deposits over the next few months as people begin to realize that they are basically government protected and offer a better yield than money market funds which are offering negative returns!
the biggest problem from banks in the next few months is what to do with the new deposits as it will actually become a problem for them.
Hence they will be able to take full advantage of the new rule that allows them to buy securities and not have to market to market.
banks will make a fortune over the next 3 years and as assets become scarce the toxic shit they have on their books will eventually get written up.
stopped out in TBT
This guy will be valuable in the next depression.
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/664638/
Oh. My. God.
Boom, that turtle man shheeit was featured here like… six months ago?
If you are not following along, you will be fined.
_________
Dennis Kneale looks like a rooster today… that’s NOT good.
-DT
Yeah, turtle man is very August, Boomer.
Meanwhile, can we address the 56,784 pound elephant in the room? Namely, the death of “the Fly.”
Can we discuss this? Where are the services being held, etc?
-DT
He has a meeting I think
Paulson negotiating auto bailout?
Hasn’t that stuttering bald headed moronic idiot already done enough damage to our economy and destroyed enough wealth in our country? Honest to god, someone needs to take that fucker out back and beat the crap out of him.
Hank Paulson = 1,000x Madoff
Dinosaur, this is what happened to the Fly: http://little2rich4u.blogspot.com/2008/12/i-bank-change-cartoon.html
L2R4U – Horrible blog…
@Anonymous
Stop being jealous you unfortunate hater.
Trying to grow a blog by being an obnoxious prick will never work.
Danny, of course, is the one exception to this rule.
-DT
@ DINOSAUR TRADER
MY BLOG IS ALREADY TEN TIMES YOUR SIZE, YOU HATER.
Next verse of be-little-ing will be about your sorry ass. Get ready.
I actually find him amusing. Especially the “comics.”
Hard to pull off the rich kid thing with the GED writing style, however.
Maybe try another format.
_________