This is truly fascinating. As evidenced by the leadership in foreign markets, investors/stupid hedge fund managers are pricing in a resurgence of the U.S. consumer and the global infrastructure boom, via bidding up basic resources and domestic retail equities.
It’s a bold call, considering we are in the early stages of the down cycle. Even when U.S. markets are down, Asian equities are higher, due to the assumption that a U.S. consumer driven recovery is on the way.
There is no other way to dice it.
In case you were wondering, the following stocks are major beneficiaries of the return of global growth:
XOM, CVX, APA, OXY, CEO, MOS, POT, CLF, RIO, BHP, SLB, BHI, NOV, ASTE, LNN, BUCY, CAT, TEX, EME, SGR, PCR, FLR, FWLT, INT, ACM, INSU, GVA and finally DRYS, GNK, TBSI and EXM.
Now, I am not giving you a portfolio recommendation for late 2006, mind you. Whether the market is right or wrong, the above stocks are where its at.
As you can see, this is a very powerful move. There is a concerted effort to bid these names up, for whatever reason, and it can last for quite awhile. Based upon past numbers, all of the basic resource names are dirt cheap. However, unfortunately, forward looking numbers do not leave much to be desired.
Bottom line: I will take profits on longs, when I can, and use cash to make long side trades. And, as much as I want to short everything in sight, I will respect the current market forces and refrain from making any big downside bets.
Use patience to kill the momentum.
UPDATE: I bought 10,000 CBL @ $5.76.
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The Fly is God.
there you go. finally some cents.
Emerging markets are screwed, they no longer have access to all that easy credit like the past 20 years.
I’m shorting bounces in emerging markets. EEV.
any thoughts on DXO…very high volume
Jake, got some crack for ya, mofo
http://picfor.me/viewimg/10692
JigglyPuff — are you scumbucket?
Today is the first day I ever heard the term “Steampunk.”
To be alive is to learn something new every day. It’s exhilarating.
Please to enlighten?
_______
Fly-
take a look at the June 2001 to Dec 2002 SPY chart, i’m banking on a replay of that chart with a firm rally up to the coronataion of King O, then the bottom drops out again. Performance chasing Fund managers are high on POT fumes, and will jam this thing to justify beating the index by 28 bps. This will get them a new membership at Shinecock.
Fly,
I know your focus is banking coin short-term, but longer-term 6mos to a year+ do you see:
1 massive inflation
2 deflation
3 other?
Fly…as soon as it looks like the market is gonna roll over…you post stuff like “GOOD DAY TO YOU, SIR”, you talk about stealing purses, then, as if by magic…the market smites you and turns back higher. WTF…
Next time, please give it more than 10 points down on the DOW before you start to claim victory. Thanks.
Shemp
UPDATE: I sold out of my KBR, north of $15.10. my plan is to take profits on longs, while leaving shorts in place. This strategy will lead to 100% short, by the beginning of the new year.
Did you look at the one year chart before doing this?
________
i am playing the fuck you, LULU, you’re dead lotto with some Dec $10 puts. what the hell – been on a bit of a roll lately, so might as well try for a nice winner with house money.
Yo, ben-wah balls kenobi, I ain’t no scumbucket. Yo, I don’t know what steampunk is, dat’s for sub-urban spoiled geeks and shit. I thought you was in the market for a new purse, since yours was stolen.
this is awesome!
i KNEW the ‘recession’ was just hyperbole!
long live CNBC and larry kudlow!!!!!!!
This all makes perfect sense, what with the US consumer’s bullshit house underwater, Atlantis-style.
Boom days are obviously back and we will borrow against our internal organs or whatever other collateral the banks will take to buy the newest 100″ plasma screen and pleather dinette set.
I mean, interest rates are going to zero and that is OBVIOUSLY A GREAT THING.
Fly, are you still holding FAZ? I’m long as hell in my trading account, but am more than 50% cash with several long positions in retirement accounts and shit I can’t get out of till 1/1/09.
Thanks.
Wait, what year is this?
Did anyone else notice the huge spike in volume to the sell side of the s&P in the last minute of trading. They would not let that bitch close above 900
This market is full of Teddy bears and happy Wisconsin cows.
Don’t forget the happy Wisconsin drunks . . . sorry to the rest of you soberites
The Fly, SRS will die? What you guys think?
Fuck Cheesy Xcitement.
(FCX)
22.89 +3.15 (+15.96%)
T Moe, I hope that selling is to keep the bulls in line. Another day below 900 brings us that much closer to full on reversal…
Question for all you FXP lovers and haters: regardless of how fucked FXP is on a daily basis, what do you see happening to the China 25 if the Chicoms devalue the renminbi, eiher overtly or by stealth. (I’m guessing the latter based on…inscrutable stereotyping, but on the other hand maybe they will want to send a message. Thoughts?
every once in awhile you drop the persona/schtick and write something that is informative/insightful rather than entertainment.
___________________________________________________________
As you can see, this is a very powerful move. There is a concerted effort to bid these names up, for whatever reason, and it can last for quite awhile. Based upon past numbers, all of the basic resource names are dirt cheap. However, unfortunately, forward looking numbers do not leave much to be desired.
Bottom line: I will take profits on longs, when I can, and use cash to make long side trades. And, as much as I want to short everything in sight, I will respect the current market forces and refrain from making any big downside bets.
Use patience to kill the momentum.
___________________________________________________________
I would add look to the Oct 14 th reaction high… that is a strong possibility for where the market wants to go to on the upside in the intermediate term.
This market has blown a head gasket. TM up big on what? A standing inventory in the millions? The big 3 bailouts? The coming great depression? I call bullshit.
The materials/resource companies are behaving in a way that will give them huge pricing power in 2010.
AGU, MOS, POT, CHK, FCX (and others) have all announced either reductions in CAPEX that will reduce capacity, or they have announced plans to delay previously announced projects or shut in existing capacity completely.
2009 is going to be a complete fucking earnings washout. That’s been discounted. But when the stimulus announced by China, India and the Messiah kicks in, it will create a boom in 2010, and these companies will be back to printing money again.
Plus, nearly all of them trade at enterprise values that are huge discounts to the replacement cost of their asset base, so at the first sign of an uptick in growth the smaller ones will be takeover bait.
Rumor has it that Mississippi State has hired the Gator offensive coach as the new Head Coach. They know because people who have no life are actually tracking a private plane from Gainesville, Fl. to Starkville, MS.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/EJA906
>> US consumer’s bullshit house underwater, Atlantis-style
Anton, I’m writing this down, funny.
“Global Growth is Back!
When are people going to realize, we can’t go back to the old ways of doing business. Therefore, how are we going to have “global growth” without reestablishing the “BUY NOW, AND PAY LATER” model.
Fuck, if we’ve learned anything, we should know by now, there ain’t no more free lunches. This motherfucking ponzi scheme has thrown the gawd damn economy into a bottomless hole. What in the fuck makes anyone believe CitiBank and Bank of America are gonna start loaning Johnny AssHat’s all over the country, thousands of dollars, to buy more frivolous bullshit from China.
Who the fuck are we kidding here? There ain’t gonna be no gawd damned “global growth” for a long time.
1st time you’ve made sense in 2 weeks.
gold stocks/engineering companies have forgotten the 50 dma and are taking aim at the over head 200 dma….HMY and KGC for example as well as FLR and JEC….commodes are going to benefit
from around 10 months ago…
did anyone out there read the column on (MSN -Moneycentral ?) maybe Jubak or something, listing various reasons for people about to buy a home, to put there money into companies/stocks instead…? Called something like ‘Why Buy a House, when you can buy a Company’ or sonething like that.. god, could you imagine the pain…
BTW, What I said above has nothing to do with market forces & Mr. Market, which I will not fight. If motherfuckers want to bid up stock prices, believing this “Global Growth” bullshit is back, I sure the hell ain’t gonna get in the way.
However, make no mistake. Mr. Market is wrong on “Global Growth”, just as it was wrong on Dow 14,000, Goldilocks, Crude $146, etc, etc, …
i agree with donny, but i also expect these govt idiots to start forcing banks to double everyone’s credit card limits, HELOCs, whatever. they’ll probably start tossing money from floats in weekly optimism parades, which will become mandatory, under the new stimulus plan.
there’s no hocus pocus way out of this, and quite frankly, i think we’re going to be mired in shit for years. all this ’09 recovery’ bullshit is just that: bovine turds.
ps: fuck china. i hate them with the fire of a thousand suns.
Hating is every American’s inalienable right as was a stucco McMansion in exurbia and a maxed out HELOC.
Investing in China in 2009 will be like investing in the UK in 1809 or investing in the US in 1909.
bu-bye USD (not this week of course)
To Karl Marx re: FXP – betting on RMB deval is a low percentage play, in my opinion. If they start dropping the RMB, all other Asian FX will follow it down (competitive deval), eliminating much of the benefit. Costs could be relatively high, however. Lots of the “FDI” they get is fake, fast money from HK, and they would risk outflows of that. The stable RMB has helped their equities and will continue to do so. Less important but still a consideration, they’d catch global political heat from all quarters. Minor weakness against the USD is possible, just to introduce 2 way risk, but a material devaluation is unlikely for now (check back if their economy isn’t pulling out of its nosedive by 2Q09, however).
Chinese equities are outperforming because they have the only (barely) credible growth story in Asia for 2H09 – China has more monetary and fiscal firepower to throw at the problem than anywhere else in the region, debt levels are tiny, so they are the tallest midget in Asia, consensus overweight for now.
Finally, don’t fight the market. I am in agreement the market will reach new lows. But first its being pumped up until the year end. Load up on SRS in the 30’s or 40’s and ride it to triple digits by spring. It makes no sense for the market to go up and yet it does. Do you think they are trying to improve their end of year performance numbers?
Fly is an unbelievably awesome trader, I have been following (lurking) for a couple of years. This is my first time visible.
The only global growth I’ve seen over the past 2 weeks is in bullshit. New lows this month.
Slapshot, thx.
Go Chiefs!
DD
Are you calling the new lows before the 19th which is options expiration?
Simply AMAZING. When I told you turkeys about the GENERATIONAL BOTTOM that we were seeing the week of Nov 17, I told you to buy beaten-down materials stocks that were 80% to 90% off their highs.
Here are the Nov 20 closes vs today’s closes
on some of my suggestions:
X at 20.97 now 37.64 GAIN 79%
TIE at 5.35 now 8.54 GAIN 70%
HL at 1.10 now 2.33 GAIN 112%
STLD at 5.23 now 11.35 GAIN 117%
I GUARANTEED that you would make 50% to 100% within the next two years. I WAS WRONG!
You essentially DOUBLED YOUR MONEY in 13 fucking trading days!!!!
But you Asshats were going SHORT and buying shit like SRS at 259 (now 76!) and FXP at 93 (now 33). YOU CAN’T SHORT AT A GENERATIONAL BOTTOM, Asshats! So STOP THE GODDAM SHORTING!
Another Bailout!
Washington, DC – Congress is considering sweeping legislation that will provide
new benefits for many Americans. The Americans with No Abilities Act (AWNAA) is
being hailed as a major legislative goal by advocates of the millions of Americans who lack any real skills or ambition.
‘Roughly 50 percent of Americans do not possess the competence and drive
necessary to carve out a meaningful role for themselves in society,’ said
California Senator Barbara Boxer. ‘We can no longer stand by and allow People of
Inability to be ridiculed and passed over. With this legislation, employers will
no longer be able to grant special favors to a small group of workers , simply
because they have some idea of what they are doing.’
In a Capitol Hill press conference, House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi and
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid pointed to the success of the U. S. Postal
Service, which has a long-standing policy of providing opportunity without
regard to performance. Approximately 74 percent of postal employees lack any job
skills, making this agency the single largest U. S. employer of Persons of
Inability.
Private-sector industries with good records of non-discrimination against the
Inept include retail sales (72%), the airline industry (68%), and home improvement ‘warehouse’ stores (65%).
Under the Americans With No Abilities Act, more than 25 million ‘middle man’
positions will be created, with important-sounding titles but little real
responsibility.
The legislation provides substantial tax breaks to corporations that promote a
significant number of Persons of Inability into middle-management positions, and
gives a tax credit to small and medium-sized businesses that agree to hire one
clueless worker for every two talented hires.
Finally, the AWNAA contains tough new measures to make it more difficult to
discriminate against the Non-abled, banning, for example, discriminatory
interview questions such as, ‘Do you have any skills or experience?’
‘As a Non-abled person, I can’t be expected to keep up with people who have
something going for them,’ said Mary Lou Gertz , who lost her position as a
lug-nut twister at the GM plant in Flint, Michigan, due to her inability to
remember rightey tightey , lefty loosey . ‘This new law should be real good for people like me,’ Gertz added.
Said Senator Dick Durban (D-IL): ‘As a Senator with no abilities, I believe the
same privileges that elected officials enjoy ought to be extended to every
Tim Knights description of iBankCoin today:-
Auto Shop (iBankCoin) – Foul-mouthed. Loud. Obnoxious. Try to stay away from this part of the school. (You didn’t really think I’d even provide a hyperlink, did you?)
I think we have a stealth bull lurking about, sneaking into our bedrooms to gore us when we are asleep. This market will melt-up, on low temps for another few weeks or so. The masses will tune in sometime in January and realize they just missed a 1000 point move up and start piling in with what is left of their savings. Then, the butcher will come out with his freshly sharpened blade and quarter everyone in sight.
Or not.
That’s a very odd comment by Tim. Is he gay?
Sounds like Tim found greasy handprints inside his girlfriend’s sweater.
To put things in context, what TK says about other blogs:-
Honors English (Slope of Hope) – Bookish. Cliquish. Smarter than the rest of the school, but hardly loved for it. Can correct spelling and grammatical errors at 100 yards, but prone to being shaken down for lunch money.
Chemistry (Evil Speculator) – This class is a bit dangerous. Its inhabitants are fiendishly clever, and if you cross them, you might find your 1983 Honda Accord in the student parking lot to be unusable.
Student Council (xTrends) – One highly-intelligent and charismatic leader surrounded by sycophants and hangers-on.
Trigonometry/Statistics (Retracement Levels) – The nerds of the school, they can calculate the probabilities of any given student getting a wedgie in P.E.
Philosophy (Gary Savage Smart Money) – Wordy, thoughtful, and occasionally pedantic, but you know you should listen, don’t you?
Religious Studies (Elliott Wave International) – In spite of the separation of church and state, this is home room for the true believers. Reverend Prechter is a visiting scholar this year.
“Health” Education (Trading Goddess) – In spite of its ostensible purpose, this class is mainly attended by those hoping for some saucy images.
Drama (Live with Oscar) – Project! This time with feeling!
Tim’s homo blog: Boring, flaccid, the weak geek who was never selected for football in gym class. Instead, he spent his time watching reruns of Star Wars and remains several “yards” of gray matter behind the dumbest guy at iBankcoin.
In other words: a regular fucktard.
Aristotle:
This is the best blog around bar none. Fly creates the intellectual environment that is both nurturing and challenging at the same time.
But seriously, I never knew about Tim’s blog until I read about here and it has a very gay undertone. Everyone there seems to talk with a lisp.
This shop is really the best place going. It’s about mud wrestling, funny and money hungry.
There are lots of good discussions every day.
Tim Knight doesn’t write or think well enough to be in an Honors English class.
Sounds more like some prissy little Home Ec male teaching assistant.
Oh goody an interblog war. Them’s are the best.
I really don’t understand what people see in Tim’s blog. It’s empty other than a couple of stupid, gay looking charts accompanied by very little comment from him. Fly used the right word to describe it. It’s flaccid.
Ants
Fly was saying recently that you spend a lot of time over there these days. Is that true?
joljoley:
SRS will rocket again…sometime.
There might not be such a thing as commercial property next year, only soup kitchens.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fitch-has-dim-view-on-apf-13795679.html/print
j, that’s as ridiculous as suggesting you ask your kangaroo to wear a condom.
Simply will not happen, for there is no pleasure in it.
Tim Knight wishes he could trade as well as Fly’s discarded fingernail clippings.
Quant Hedgies are entering the water once again. The trade is a vix in the 30s over the next few months. Rally or not less volitility is here.
tim’s blog single-handedly puts the gay in frappuccinos.
when you have to resort to classifying other blogs, you may as well hang it up and go back to sanding the insides of glory holes.
Can’t we all just git along?
Both Knight & da Fly have kicked butt this year. Different styles, different strokes … more than one way to bank coin.
Nevermind, how about a celebrity blogger boxing match?
Exactly Aris. Good way of putting it.
If Don stopped referring to himself as “Donny” as well as not in the 3rd person they could almost get this site endorsed as a homo free site. Sending more Canadians over to Tim’s would also help a great deal too.
Tim’s blog is a retard filter.
Stupid longs are jackasses. TM is doing holiday furloughs, considering cutting dividend, and the idiots bid it up. Madness.
There is no way in hell the VIX goes to 30. People are becoming complacent. Yesterday the market was down and the VIX was flat. Today the Market has a modest gain the the fix falls 3 points. These rallies will suck in the bulltards who watch too much TV and who think the CDS story has passed. Did you notice how there is not much news about the CDS story since the autos have taken up all of the air time. There was hardly a mention about another AIG $10 billion fuck up. There is still billions and billions of worthless paper out there.
If the quants were entering the water there would be a lot more volume.
fly,
is there an explanantion of your PPT model that I could study on your site?
I am late to the party and have no clue..
also with the advertisers going away, how are you going to make money with your website in 2009?
thanks
mrs.buttons
I forgot to mention strong yen and [this], oh yeah, TM is going to the moon baybee!
Mrs B- iBC is a charitable concern, but thanks for your interest.
Say hi to Red for me, wouldja?
_____
GRA up, up, and away!
It could be raining pussies and TK would get hit in the head with a dick.
**Michelle Caruso Cabrera makes Phil LeBeau grab his ankles!
Hey guys I know many of you on here are history buffs and like military movies. Do any of you know of any videos on the history of the KGB, CIA or NSA? Looking for some good ones for Christmas. History channel ones would be great.
In other news, its only a matter of time until “The Messiah” is caught up in the Chicago Corruption. Trust me I live in this corrupt fucking place, without a doubt he had to have known and been in on this in some sort of way. If this does happen I would bet the markets start getting shaky again. Count on it.
BHP is getting the shit kicked out of it in the Aussie market as a result of Fly’s intervention calling commodity stocks the new tech stocks.
The China story seems to have finally hit home. What I can’t believe is how the NY market took it up last night ignoring the same news,.
This 15 Billion auto bill is D.O.A.
this auto thing makes me sick.
i think the inflation trade is going into high gear. i may even buy some bullshit like SLW or AUY.
it’s kind of funny reading fly’s list of stocks in his post. it’s like april all over again.
j, i think the commodity run is going to take the elevator shaft eventually, but i suspect it will be after the new year.
Gappy- I am in the middle of “The Sword and the Shield: The Mitrokhin Archive and The Secret History of The KGB” by Christopher Andrew and Vasili Mitrokhin. It’s incredibly interesting. I am sure someone has distilled a documentary from it at some point…
Also Re: the One. I guarantee he’s been innoculated, as all this shit was going down prior to the election. If BO was indictable, someone would’ve raised the Red Lantern, so to speak.
_____
Commodities..
MOS has been up nearly 10% a day since they pre-announced their earnings warning.
From the $22’s to $36 in 3 days??
Last time MOS did that, it puked all those gains back up on the sell-off.
This time it looks like it has gained “protected” status.
Anybody feeling like chasing after MOS here?
Damon- I thought you were bearish? 😉
MOS, POT, MON and AGR should be good for a little while, ovah heah.
Jake,
I am bearish, I just don’t see it.
Then again, I was telling my broker friends in commercial and residential real-estate to sell in late 2005.
Now they are all on the precipice of financial ruin.
I tend to move way too early.
Like with MOS and POT, these yahoo’s are just now buying that stuff, it’s like they are on a 1 month delay.
I guess I forgot that you can never underestimate the intelligence of the American public (especially fund managers).
In the meantime, I find it hard to go long MOS (which I still hold short at 27) here.
The trend is different this time around, no doubt.
Tim Who?
CA will be out of money by March? Is it any wonder the most Liberal state will be the first to fall? Now we are a Liberal ran Country with the Financial Sector and the Auto Sector being partly Government ran, just like Fannie and Freddie…
I have trouble being a long term buyer in this market…The Government screws anything it touches because it draws corrupt people like Flys to Shit…no offense Fly!
Thanks Jake I will check that one out. I love reading and watching the secret history of Russia myself.
I would not be so sure there are no crumbs under that rug, these fucks around here believe they are untouchable.