The harsh reality is: Goldman Ball Sachs lowered their EPS estimates for the S&P 500 to $55. That means, at current levels, we are trading 15x 2009 numbers. Going back to past recessions, the market got down as low as 8x and, usually, touched down on 10X.
If we trade down to 10x numbers, that means we’re going to 550 on the 500, which is pretty fucking hilarious, if you ask me.
But, in reality, people are just going to toss 2009 numbers to the wayside and try to crunch 2010. Sharp declines in GDP are always met with sharp increases. Therefore, taking into consideration the amount of worldwide central bank stimulus, one can make a strong argument that 2010 will represent a turning point for the economy.
Unfortunately, this little rally, that we are bathing in, will be short lived. The markets will suck goat nads for the next 6 months, until we can get some clarity on 2010.
Howsoever, bear market rallies are the best. They are sharp, insane and quite delicious. If played correctly, one could make a small fortune buying into bear market rallies.
As you know, “The Fly” intends to make large fortunes playing them. I will reserve the smaller ones for you.
So, with regards to the rally: it is not over. My guess, we run strong until Friday. It’s Thanksgiving, for Pete’s sake. People love getting long into the fucking feast. With my money, I will hold my bank longs, Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] , and play the 3x maniac etf’s, [[TNA]] and [[BGU]] , for some upside fun.
Also, at these levels, I like General Electric Company [[GE]] , [[TBT]] , NetGear, Inc. [[NTGR]] , Perini Corporation [[PCR]] and Knight Capital Group Inc. [[NITE]] .
Bottom line: I am keeping my [[FXP]] position, which is small, mainly because I am stubborn. This is NOT a market to short. You need to mud stomp the bears here, until their noses fall off.
Trade accordingly.
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Wowsa, it is amazing what a weekend does for a stock. HK is quite a stock for trading. That POS was seen at $11.20 on Friday, now trading upwards of $16.45. You time that thing right, and you can bank some serious coinage.
Speaking of which, I an planning to short that biatch when it slows down. Probably Wednesday or Friday.
Oh what a burn… Picking NTGR ovah my baby JNPR.
It’s not a market to short but it’s so tempting to hedge in some of these big ass gains. The problem is none of the normal hedges look good here.
I am not shorting anything here. This market is en fuego for today and tomorrow. Wednesday will be the day to start looking to short again, IMO.
I own some Goldman Ball Sachs bonds – just about 2 years to maturity, but down a little from my buy – what am I doing? $50 earnings for S&P is probably more correct. Thursday afternoon and Friday will be minus many “participants” – put in egregious buy and sell orders and see what happens?
This Prince Allaweed interview is comedy gold, with that chair and the fucking horses in the background.
Who does an interview from a horse stable?
NTGR is cash rich.
With that kind of money you can pretty much do anything.
You read my mind on that one… camels and horses in the background… the shades… the outfit… so this is Citi’s largest investor…
Alaweed looks like some cheap night club loser.
I was thinking the same thing about the Fucking Price. This fucker is sitting on a throne, with a cane in one hand, Arabian Horses in the background, and he’s talking about “Long Term Investors”.
Please, stop the fucking (bag holding) chatter. Citibank won’t recover to the levels it once was, ever, much less in Alwaleed’s lifetime.
Reminds me of an article I read this weekend.
“City of Rochester, Minnesota leaders say members of Saudi Arabia’s royal family spent enough money during their visit this week to remedy the area’s economic woes for the entire year.
Estimates of their spending range from $1 million to $2.5 million during an eight-day visit.
The Saudi Arabian King arrived in Rochester on November 15 for a check up at the Mayo Clinic. He was accompanied by at least 5 Saudi princes and hundreds of others.”
I have seen a video of him in a freakin tent receiving a line of his subjects who hand him a list of stuff that they want and they go kissy kissy and the next one steps up. He y, Fly, any feel for the final hour today???
Final hour is up up and away! I bet we end up 500+ on the DOW
If you like Netgear, you should look at Seagate. I think a better play… more cash
Take that BAC down to single digits – call Hank – another C in the works! Not to worry, Oblama will save you! Hahahahaha. Shorty, you are long? Odd, no?
What’s with all the “Anonymous” comments?
Identify yourselves!!
The Fly is God.
Mr. Vikram is god.
Buying more GE here…. 15.02
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I’m bored today!
“Who does an interview from a horse stable?”
LOL – THOSE WERE CAMELS!
Frickin’ city slickers can’t tell the diff between hosses and camels!
They just need some jockeys 🙂
I like FXA here.
oh, I’m drinkin it up, alrighty, yessir, situation is grim, outta Jager. Cuervo 1800 on deck, all hands on fuckin deck!
What time is the next unsustainable rally scheduled for? 3:10 p.m.?
I have seen a video of him in a freakin tent receiving a line of his subjects who hand him a list of stuff that they want and they go kissy kissy and the next one steps up.
Danny: Is that^^ the script for the next iBC video?
Dollar is looking real week. I’m adding to DBA and buying USO.
I wish this short squeeze would get started.
When we supplicants go to visit Mr. Fly in his tent, at least he will already have the white robes for us to kiss.
Here’s your short squeeze…
STX has -$2 in net cash.
You need to look at debt, fuckfaces.
i thought we would test intraday hight today again for C..any thoughts?
Oh yeah up $100 on my SKF short, can I woo?
the last time p/e’s got that low was 1974 and 1982. those periods had higher inflation, higher interest rates and higher corporate and individual tax rates. earnings had to be discounted more. that’s not the case now.
i agree with you on the rest, almost.
No, the naked shorts haven’t capitulated yet. Once it takes off, their accounts will automatically be liquidated.
I have bad vibes from GOOG leading us down.
This Barrack guy they just interviewed on CNBC is soooooo freakin bearish, I want to climb back into my cave and roll up the big rock. Is he just talking his book?
Fly (or anyone) – How we gonna close’m today? On the highs? Last hour selloff?
Close at the highs. Up 500 + on the Dow.
anyone else creeped out by how quiet and rangebound the VIX has been all day?
The trickle effect into overseas markets should at least be good for another day to bullishly “gobble gobble”…
Oh and the reason why I am bullish is as follows
1) Market broke previous lows on Thursday sucking in shorts and forcing bulls to sell. A break of the bottom followed by a sharp reversal tends to be bullish.
2) Nobody thinks Friday was a bottom and it doesn’t look like your capitulation bottom. This is good since all the other capitulation type bottoms have failed.Maybe we need a bottom that doesn’t look like one.
3) Too many people talking about why this ‘rally won’t last’
looks like it wants to run again
Higher highs….higher lows….
This rally won’t last. But I do think it may get to next Monday. If so, I’ll be out of longs and back to the dark side. I’m already buying SRS every 10 points down from 180, in anticipation of another run to 300, and as a hedge.
Oh and I forgot to add a 4th point.
4) End of year performance anxiety. Fund managers will get long high beta names in order to make something for the year. Expect GOOG to run. Long QLD ROM would be smart plays.
Fly,
Did Merlin POOFed DevilDog?
Just asking…
So I run two portfolio’s, a short/long and a hedged or paired book. Thought I would post what has been working on this rally for the past few days on the paired book since risk is high right now, feel free to critique:
Long UYG / Short SPY
Long AAPL / Short QQQQ
Long CHK / Long DUG (CHK weighted 1.5:1 DUG)
Long V / Short MA
Long FXA
Long TBT
Currently its proving to be a good book over the past week.
In other less interesting news where is DEVILDOG? I have been long SnP e-minis since about 9:30CST last night and just wanted to thank him for his money.
The DevilsDog is a no show when he’s getting the 4 X 4 upside his head from Papa, for overstaying his welcome on the armageddon trade.
Trimming some UYG +60%
Long UYG / Short SPY
Was liking this trade as of this morning. I’m betting it works regardless of SPY direction from here on out.
Master Fly, would you please allow me to put 2 coats of wax on your time machine?
Sweet Turkey Rally call, wow!
So far, we’re up 870 points in 2 days. I got news for you fucking PermaBears, this market can double those gains before the weekend.
I’m not superstitious, but just realized I’m mailing a package to:
345 Fortune Blvd.
A good sign for the close, I think.
I nominate Fly for Captain of the 2010 US Rydercup Team.
OOoohhhh shit, I am way too drunk, my liver is swelled up bigger than the turkey Snipette is thawing out, wow
I just got back from WaWa…whats up?
holy, my erx and tna. love the 3x.
maybe they should make 10X funds? no?
buying a little protection on the way up, since my face is just getting glued back on
Only if the Ryder Cup is in Romania in 2010.
Fly is a hero to the Romanians.
Check the melt up on the European markets in the last hr. Thats what we will see. When in doubt just look at Europe.
Dylan is the smartest man CNBC. No doubt about it.
Bonused on 40 to 1 leverage, the CEO walks away without any consequences to all the money he received. What a fucking sham.
Broke the double resistance at 850.
Charge Motherfuckers!
Word on the street is DD is riding around Texas on a Vespa. So much for that 430….
fly?
attach bayonets?
now?
yes.
Terranova is an idiot.
out of UYG, enjoyed the ride
Sold 10K WEN from Friday buy @ 2.83 @ 3.5. At resistance for square burgers.
Holding other longs…
Praise be to Our Lady of Blessed SPY Call Option.
I have 1000 shares of uyg bought at 4.28..
should i dump it or hold ? what are your opinions ?
UNDERSTAND:
The Low on the Dow on Friday was about 7,450. RIGHT NOW, the Dow 8560!
LOLOLLOLLOLLLL! Fuck you … Donny WINS ULTRA-BIG AGAIN!
hahaha SPY looks like some kind of shady leveraged ultralong fund right now, outperforming FXI.
BAC,JPM,WFC,etc will be in line behind C for some free money.
Praise be to Our Lady of James Pierpont Morgan.
anybody carrying stuff overnight?
Way to go Donny…your asshole comments just caused the rally to go bye bye…
BAC is going down thanks to their purchase of Diarrhea pool of subprime mortgages from countrywide
Thank you Donny. This phony baloney rally goes poof without Merlin.
SRS is a buy
I saw that interview, methinks Chuck Prince is about to get some islamobad-assed juju coming his way, and fast. BTW, the camels were to his left, the horses to his right. Pay attention dipsticks.
I’ll take cakeface Terranova over Seymour any day.
im taking FCX TNA and FLR and AAPL,.
with a moderate dose of spy short
Anyone interested in the gold trade, take a look at what they did to AEM intraday. The last half hour was a sell-off with nice volume too. Not sure what to think, I am just glad I locked half my position today.
Depending on what happens overnight, I will let the rest of my position ride.
picked up SRS at the close.. below 150 is an excellent entry. Buy with both fists below 130.
Fuck you haters. I will continue to tip-toe over this market, and have my may betting against many of you losers. I hope you understand this!
Anyone take a look at my friend’s machine pick today?
AMSF? +15.61%
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i’m still long UYG until further notice.
Picked up some EEV on the close. I’ll pick up some FXP and SRS if we rally again tomorrow.
BAC and JPM and WFC already got some free money – you mean the second helping next – the bill is over 8 trillion and climbing – one to two trill to be borrowed over next year. There is no way out of this box.
MoonshineDelight Says:
picked up SRS at the close.. below 150 is an excellent entry. Buy with both fists below 130.
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GA Says:
Picked up some EEV on the close. I’ll pick up some FXP and SRS if we rally again tomorrow.
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Eggggggggsellent!
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Yes – dined on AMSF sub 14.