iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,992 Blog Posts

Chinese Industry on the Brink of Collapse

Xinhua news is reporting that small riots have broken out in parts of China, due to factory closings. As a point in fact, more than 50% of Chinese toy makers have gone bankrupt in 2008.

Without a doubt, this will lead to much higher prices here in the states. I must be out of my fucking mind being long equities.

“This financial crisis in America is going to kill us. It’s already taking food out of our mouths,” the 42-year-old laborer said Friday as he stood outside the shuttered Smart Union Group (Holdings) Ltd. factory in the southern city of Dongguan.

The company, which has struggled as global growth has slowed in recent months, employed 7,000 people in mainland China and Hong Kong. It wasn’t immediately clear how many have lost their jobs.

DONGGUAN, China (AP) — Unemployed worker Wang Wenming was angry at his boss for shutting down a massive Chinese factory this week that made toys for Mattel Inc., Hasbro Inc. and other American companies.

But the assembly line worker was also furious at the United States.

“This financial crisis in America is going to kill us. It’s already taking food out of our mouths,” the 42-year-old laborer said Friday as he stood outside the shuttered Smart Union Group (Holdings) Ltd. factory in the southern city of Dongguan.

The company, which has struggled as global growth has slowed in recent months, employed 7,000 people in mainland China and Hong Kong. It wasn’t immediately clear how many have lost their jobs.

Economic upheaval in the U.S. is already changing and shrinking China’s vast manufacturing hub in the southern province of Guangdong, long regarded as the world’s factory floor. However, factory closures won’t just be a China problem — shoppers will feel the effect in malls and stores in the U.S. and Europe.

“When these companies go bust, the outcome is higher prices,” said Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai. “Labor costs have gone up 70 to 100 percent in the last three or four years. But these guys have not been able to raise their prices because Toys “R” Us, Home Depot and Wal-Mart are saying no price increase. How is that possible?”

For years, there were too many factories competing to win bids from foreign buyers demanding prices that were often unrealistically low. The winners were American and European consumers, who enjoyed rock-bottom prices.

But many factories were scrimping on materials and stiffing their suppliers just to survive, Xie said. The financial crisis will be the final culling factor that forces many wobbly factories to go belly up and end an unsustainable situation, he added.

Already, China’s toy industry is hurting. The official Xinhua News Agency reported this week that 3,631 toy exporters — 52.7 percent of the industry’s enterprises — went out of business in 2008. The causes: higher production costs, wage increases for workers and the rising value of the yuan, the report said.

Nor is Christmas likely to make much difference. Big toy giants generally put in their Christmas orders months in advance so toys can be shipped to them in time.

Even before the financial crisis, China’s exports were dropping because of the slowdown in America and Europe. For the first time in three years, the growth rate for Chinese exports in the first quarter of 2008 declined, according to customs figures.

Chan Cheung-yau, chairman of toy and games subcommittee under the Chinese Manufacturers’ Association of Hong Kong, agreed that the outlook was gloomy for toy makers. He predicted that thousands more factories would close in China next year.

“The tightening credit market has made it more difficult for manufacturers to raise funds,” he said. “It has created a huge cash flow problem.”

Workers at the Smart Union toy factory said that for several months the plant was less busy and paychecks were arriving late.

“The management said the problem was that our American customers weren’t paying for the goods they ordered so the company couldn’t pay us,” said worker Shao Xiaoping, who was still wearing his blue company shirt with a red patch above the pocket that said “Smart.”

He was among 100 workers who on Friday gathered outside the gates of the factory, a sprawling five-story complex covered in white and blue tiles discolored by dust and smog. About 2,000 other laborers protested outside the local government’s offices, demanding that the Hong Kong-based company pay their wages, severance and other benefits. The building was guarded by a line of 50 riot police with shields and clubs.

The workers said the Hong Kong-based owner of the factory didn’t warn them before the plant closed Wednesday.

“I’ve been working here for eight years. I have no idea whether I’ll ever get paid. The government says we will, but I’m not optimistic,” said a man in a white sleeveless undershirt who would only give his surname, Zhang. Most workers wouldn’t completely identify themselves for fear speaking to the press would cost them their wages.

A sign posted by the local government on the factory gates said workers could be detained for 10 to 15 days for stirring up unrest, unlawful gathering, protesting and ignoring orders from security officials.

Calls to Smart Union’s offices in Hong Kong went unanswered. On Friday, the company said in a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it informed Hong Kong’s High Court that is has stopped operating and was seeking buyers.

Last year, the company, listed on Hong Kong’s stock market, said in a financial report its core customers included Mattel, Hasbro and Spin Master Ltd. The company’s stock was suspended from trading Wednesday.

In another report this year, the company reported a pretax loss of US$25.9 million (HK$201 million) in the first six months.

Higher manufacturing costs — including a 20-percent rise in the cost of plastic — took a big bite out of profits, along with the 7 percent appreciation of the yuan, it said. The company was also hammered when Mattel and other toy giants recalled millions of Chinese-made toys last year because of safety concerns, the company said.

Although Smart Union wasn’t directly involved in those recalls, “the product recall incident badly affected the toy industry,” it said.

Most of China’s toy factories are in Guangdong province — the main laboratory for the bold economic forms China began 30 years ago when it began shifting away from communism. The province was a good place to start dabbling with capitalism because it shares a border with Hong Kong, the main gateway into China for foreign investors.

Companies from Hong Kong, Taiwan, America and Europe flooded into the province to set up low-cost factories that made everything from sneakers and bras to laptops and iPods. The booming region close to Hong Kong became known as the Pearl River Delta.

Most of the factory closures are happening in the Pearl River Delta, and the changes didn’t seem to bother one of the province’s highest-ranking economic officials, Vice Governor Wan Qingliang.

In a briefing with foreign reporters this month, Wan said the global economic crisis wouldn’t deter the provincial government from pressing on with a sweeping plan to restructure the Pearl River Delta’s manufacturing base. He said the government wanted low-end factories to move farther into China’s interior so that they could be replaced with more high-tech, advanced industries.

“We have a policy to empty the cage for the new birds,” he said. “The ultimate target is to build the Pearl River Delta into the core region of modern manufacturing.”

If the strategy works, China might eventually come out of the toy crisis stronger.

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86 comments

  1. i love capitalism

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  2. DB

    Crazy shit. Looks like tomorrow will start another fun week.

    “Without a doubt, this will lead to much higher prices here in the states. I must be out of my fucking mind being long equities.”

    Fucking priceles.

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  3. ADD

    Someone tell FLY that are Ritalin perscriptions cant be filled until Tuesday.

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  4. The Fly

    Sorry for the Ducati-like article swipe. I felt this was a must read.

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  5. j

    Fly

    So your basing you trading strategy on what Chinese toy makers are doing . Dude, relax their GDP number is coming out in 20 minutes.

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  6. The Fly

    J:

    It is a prelude of things to come. It’s a vicious cycle.

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  7. Ass Napkin Mike

    Fuck the Chinese and their lead filled toys.

    Im sure the next thing we will read is how the baby food industry is going under because of the toxic chemicals they use in the baby formula.

    They are all a bunch of assholes that cut corners.

    Poo Poo Plattah for you

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  8. j

    seen the ad on he side tab of your site, FLY.

    It’s about bagging pretty Asian gals.

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  9. j

    Fly:

    Their toymakers are fucked because no one wants to buy Chinese toys that may poison kids. Personally I feel that alone is a great reason to buy Chinese toys, but lots of Western idiot parents don’t think the way i do.

    The Chinese budget is very healthy. IF the regime sees the economy slowing they going to go gangbusters spending up big on infrastructure.

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  10. InternationalGroupie
    InternationalGroupie

    ibankcoin may turn into ibangchina if further equity losses are observed.

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  11. j

    Asia looks Ok today.

    The Euro yen rate is holding up well. Gold has gone up a little and the credit spread through libor may do well this week.

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  12. Damon

    Does this mean America will still be a global Superpower….only being run in the future by Mr. Hanky?

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  13. Phil_from_Brazil

    China’s done.

    Much to every dip-buyer’s chagrin, the little contrarian in me says there’s a good chance we ignite lower and test DOW 7200 area to scare the bejesus out of market participants over the next 10 days.

    It will be fast and furious, leaving calm-and-collected bullshit dip-buyers in a state of absolute FUCK-THIS-WE’RE-DEAD. That will be the intermediate bottom, in my opinion. Of course, within the next 2-3 years, we will plough through 7000 in Depression-Era fashion as leverage unwinds and unemployment soars well past the bullshit 8% mark “pundits” are now contemplating.

    Some of the stocks I’m considering (not a certainty, just a thought right now depending on the behavior of the tape tomorrow) for new shorts: AMR, DAL (Airlines are right at trendline resistance and despite their short-term relative strength to the market, they present good risk-reward) and GIS (This safe haven trade will begin to unwind in my opinion. Afterall, it’s trading at 18x EPS in a global Depression — well above the S&P’s long-term P/E average. GIS has also recently broken down and is currently just below the 50-day, presenting a clean stop position at 67 with plently of room to move lower).

    Phil_from_Brazil

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  14. rbm411

    FXP baby

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  15. Goldie

    I got my stops tighter than a gnat’s booty. I second FXP.

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  16. ADD

    Phil_from_Brazil

    Did you just drink a shit load of Monster, WTF?

    Thanks for verbally throwing up on all of us with your Sarah Palin (all ovah the place) type post.

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  17. j

    Redman’s GDP is 9.9% Fly. Still worried about the toy makers?

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  18. Donny

    Today, Investor Donny took his family to the San Diego Zoo, and we saw 3 real life Panda Bears on lease from the Chinese gov’t.

    Trader Donny thinks they’re dirty little fuckers!

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  19. Ozark Hillbilly

    Cool. I come back from the woods, and there is blood in the streets, if only in China.

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  20. Phil_from_Brazil

    Well doggonit, ADD! There you go again with your prickly little words. Ohhhh geeeez.

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  21. Phil's just wrong

    Phil, While you’re standing around holding your small dick in your hands down in Brazil, we’ll be buying the mkt hand-over-fist here in the US. When the $400 Billion Lehman CDS settlement closes on Tuesday, and all that money rushes back into the market, we’ll blow past 10,500 before you can jerk off. Then week after next we’ll down in Brazil enjoying your women.

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  22. Small Fry

    9.9% out of China beats the street. Couple that with a rate cut from Bernanke, and we will finally get our bounce up to 10,000.

    And then the shit hits the fan.

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  23. Aris

    hahaha donny in the 3rd person is great.

    china is fucked. half their econ numbers are bogus. FXP to 200 when these clowns start canceling their china mobile accounts.

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  24. Phil_from_Brazil

    Hey Asshole,

    Go buy some BIDU, then go fuck a duck.

    Brazil won’t let guys like you in. The Policia Federal works in sync with Interpol to make sure child molestors like you get deported before they make it through customs.

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  25. theman

    If The Fly is worried about owning stocks, what about us mere mortals??????

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  26. j

    Phil:

    I think you view is too clouded because you live in a fucked up third world shit hole run by a leftist mafioso who thinks Chavez is a god. If you got out of there you feel much better about the world.

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  27. DEVILDOG

    China’s GDP for the 3rd qtr. was 9.0% versus forecast of 9.5%.

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  28. I.N.S

    Phil_from_Brazil

    One of our agents will be contacting you in the morning to ask you a few questions. We have siezed your IP address from this website and have your current location.

    The agents request that you have your green card and any other documents that you may have received after arriving here in America.

    Furthemore, we have offically denied your request to have your wife and eight children living in Sao Paulo, join you here in this country.

    Warm Regards,

    INS Agent Collins

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  29. Dick_from_Brooklyn
    Dick_from_Brooklyn

    Phil_from_Brazil

    Do you wear a speedo when you play soccer on the beach?

    Homo

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  30. j

    And Phil:

    I wouldn’t be too worried about Americans heading your way.

    Dude, there’s 11 million illegals from the southern border that ought to be given their fucking marching orders to head back down to where they came from. That would certainly relieve the unemployment issue in the US is one feel swoop. One fell INS swoop. So don’t get too worried about kid bangers heading your way.

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  31. j

    Not only are they fucking with US law by coming to the US illegally. They’re also getting registered to vote and trying to fuck with the political system.

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  32. Bazily

    Is possible to short the stock of beautiful Asian brides? I have a feeling they’ll be trading for a lot less really soon.

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  33. Woodshedder

    J, you should pipe down, newbie.

    Phil is gold, and you are awfully quick to cast judgement.

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  34. RC

    Fuck everybody hatin’ on my boy Phil.

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  35. CAP

    IMHO this is more sensationalist journalism to scare market participants. As the credit crisis started unfolding in early 2007, the media was out in full force with their ‘all is well’ BS. Now with the governments of the world finally acting in unison and proactively towards a real solution, the media is in full panic mode promoting content that makes the crisis worse than it really is – a 180 degree move from their previous stance.

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  36. j

    Woodsheeder:

    He called one of the guys a child molester. Get real “oldie”.

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  37. Woodshedder

    J, you don’t want to fuck with me.

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  38. The Fly

    I am all for laying land mines on the border. That’ll learn em.

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  39. CAP

    Fly – Whats up with that advert with that Asian chick and that piggish looking white male. WTF ? Are your running an escort business on the side ?

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  40. INS Agent

    Classified:

    J-

    We will be conducting sweeps outside of every Home Depot and Lowes in the North East tomorrow. Our target (Charlie) will be illegal aliens form Brazil. All Charlies will be rounded up and taken into custody.

    However, are orders state that if Charlie has any pictures of his daughter, and theyre hot, Im talking really hot, then they (daughters) will be given the option to stay.

    We refuse to deny American men access to creamy Brazilian women with ass like a raindeer.

    -INS

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  41. Woodshedder

    CAP, relax dude. What, you don’t like Asians? You want an Italian one? How about Middle Eastern?

    Seriously, that is a google ad. It has picked up on the China part of this article.

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  42. ARCH

    amigos ,

    closing toy factories in china is a good thing ..now mexico can start making toys ..worst thing they can do is stuff the animals with the loco weed …im sure that would slow illegal immigration …might even get an uptick on the peso

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  43. The Fly

    CAP:

    I am running an escort service on the side.

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  44. j

    Woodshedder:

    “J, you don’t want to fuck with me.”

    That I take is a threat, right? And it’s supposed to scare me because……

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  45. Ass Napkin Mike

    FLY

    You should add two tabs on the new site. One would be for on call escorts- users would have the ability to browse through different wommen and schedule a service.

    The other tab would be for a delivery service that sold drugs. You could put your order in and have someone show up to your place in 30 minutes or less with weed, coke, pills, and E.

    GOLD MINE

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  46. Hey

    Anyone who said “china GDP 9.9” want to tell me what you saw? Was it really 9.9? I see 9.0, but it says “update 1”
    they’ve updated it to say 9.0… it’s like they were going to REALLY lie about the numbers, and then they decided to make their lie more believable.
    Maybe Update 3 will say “Chinese are lieing assholes, real GDP is negative, as is every country in the world as the money all goes to the central banks and black markets working for central banks, and occasionally a couple fucking independant gangstas.

    and Chill out everyone, wtf…

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  47. Woodshedder

    J, you are a nobody, who has been leaving comments around here like a stray dog finding a new hydrant to piss on.

    Phil, however, has been a consistent contributor to this site for longer than I care to figure out right now.

    Basically, you are some bullshit piker, until you are proved not to be.

    And the fact that you don’t know why to be scared proves just how new you are to iBC.

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  48. woodshedder's wooden bat
    woodshedder's wooden bat

    fuck man I’m gonna hit you so hard that you’re banned from IBC with a tracking device placed on your forehead that temporarily breaks every wireless internet connection you try to use.

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  49. j

    J, you are a nobody, who has been leaving comments around here like a stray dog finding a new hydrant to piss on.

    Oh let me get this straight, I’m the only one leaving stray comments here while others are not. Good come back.

    Phil, however, has been a consistent contributor to this site for longer than I care to figure out right now.

    Which of course gives him the right to accuse others of child molestation and if people have a problem with that you attack them (and not phil). Good come back.

    Basically, you are some bullshit piker, until you are proved not to be.

    Let me know, when you were appointed judge and jury.

    And the fact that you don’t know why to be scared proves just how new you are to iBC.

    I should be scared because……. You’re going to be mean to me? LOL.

    Great way to attract new commnetors.

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  50. j

    One other thing, Woodshedder.

    It’s Fly’s thread, so why are you suddenly getting “towy” on some other guys thread.

    Why don’t you worry about improving your threads seeing no one reads them?

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  51. pn

    9.9% according to the people’s republic.

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn./

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  52. Woodshedder

    J, surely you don’t think for one second that because you changed your alias, that we don’t know you posted those racist remarks, and the other ad hominems on Phil.

    Hey, if you are comfortable being a racist, so be it. I’m surprised that you are surprised that Phil called you a child molester, and not a racist. I guess you would prefer the latter.

    As for my blog, I own part of this site, bitch.

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  53. Danny

    you guys are all bitches, except phil, who is gangster.

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  54. boca

    Well, I can’t help myself tonight.

    Phil lives in NY, even though originally from Brazil. He’s very smart and worthy of respect, even if you (any reader) disagree with him.

    I declare Phil the winnah ovah heah!

    Oh, and Woodshedder and Fly are close friends. In addition, as Marilyn Monroe once said of Joe Dimaggio, Shed has a very large bat. Or something like that.

    *gets on the intercom* Ass Napkin Mike, we have a cleanup for you on Aisle J.

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  55. boca

    one more thing. I’m damn proud of Danny and Shed right about now.

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  56. j

    No, woodshedder. I certainly DID not post any racist remarks about Phil. My only comments are those under “J”. Anyone is quite free to check it out and if I am proved a liar I should be banned for good.

    But I didn’t post any other comment and I think you ought to apologize to me for the accusation.

    So go head and match the IP addresses and you’ll find I didn’t make that comment about Phil. Furthermore I wouldn’t make any blatant racist remark about anyone.

    Nice apology would do, “bitch”.

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  57. boca

    The only BITCH here is me J and you’re irritating.

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  58. j

    Boca

    As always making things worse.

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  59. Karl Marx

    Loving the new low banner ads.

    Girls of the 49th Central Committee on FIRE!!

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  60. lol

    J, wait a minute, so some guy can say this to him

    “Phil, While you’re standing around holding your small dick in your hands down in Brazil, we’ll be buying the mkt hand-over-fist here in the US. When the $400 Billion Lehman CDS settlement closes on Tuesday, and all that money rushes back into the market, we’ll blow past 10,500 before you can jerk off. Then week after next we’ll down in Brazil enjoying your women.”
    And you don’t object to that, but somehow a witty comeback about how Child Molesters aren’t allowed?
    You complain about this and you have the nerve to ask who made woodshedder judge?
    He’s more involved in IBC than you’ll ever be. He’s a tabbed blogger, who works with Fly… He’s like someone that knows the head hancho of the fucking mafia, or the entire world.
    You forget that when you go to IBC that you’re in Fly’s world now.
    Go to 3:25 for an important message from the Fly.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwFW834Mrcc
    “you wouldn’t last 2 minutes in my world, bitch”

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  61. Danny

    J, just give it a rest — you’re horsin’ ’round.

    boca makes things more spicy and latin, which is better.

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  62. boca

    And that’s why I love you so much J, at least you know who’s your boss.

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  63. j

    And you don’t object to that, but somehow a witty comeback about how Child Molesters aren’t allowed?

    I actually didn’t read the offending comment.

    However that isn’t the point. Woodshedder accused me of making the racist comment under an alias under another alias and I didn’t and wouldn’t.

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  64. Woodshedder

    J, that’s right, break out the sexist remarks for Boca.

    I’d say that you just removed any doubt, anyone may have had, about you.

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  65. j

    This is a sexist remark?
    Boca

    As always making things worse.

    Are you insane?

    I take it you checked out the IP’s and just want to change the subject realizing that it wasn’t mine and you can’t apologize in public. Am I right?

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  66. boca

    Don’t worry Shed, I find it difficult to care about his opinion.

    Too bad really, he showed promise in his market commentary. More of “an attitude adjustment needed” kind of thing, than an issue of ability.

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  67. j

    J, surely you don’t think for one second that because you changed your alias, that we don’t know you posted those racist remarks, and the other ad hominems on Phil.

    I didn’t so friggen well apoligize as the racist accusation just isn’t right.

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  68. ip's are crap

    IP addresses mean nothing… if you are on a cellular internet card, simply turning it on and off will get you a “new” ip, and don’t even start me on IP spoofing…

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  69. j

    I didn’t make the fucking comment.

    Pleaze, I am going to go to the trouble of getting off my regular computer , go to a cell phone and then make a racist comment about Phil.

    Anyways I live in australia so they would show up as aussie ips. Take a look.

    Woodshedder needs to apologize.

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  70. ip's are crap

    go eat your vegemite sandwich and chill out… you’ll never get an apology

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  71. j

    Fine.
    It only makes the shedhead look worse as he;s isn’t man enough to fess up to a fuck up. the sexist comment accusation is just as laughable.

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  72. Phil_from_Brazil

    Alright, just got back from watching the Red Sox taking a dick in their ear. Oh, well. I guess I should stick to soccer. Apparently, the Krull-man wont be pleased either.

    Anyway, what’s all this clownish fighting I see up there?
    You idiots are still flicking mashed potatoes in each others eyes?

    Move on everybody… tomorrow’s a big day. I’m noticing that China is up, despite the bullshit GDP numbers. Oil is also up.

    That can only mean one thing: time to go long the quality oil names with stops below 52-wk lows. I’m thinking NOV as best of breed and HTE (33% dividend yield on this badboy) as a play on fund managers in search of the holy grail of yields. Any other ideas?

    Btw: on the short-side, I’m still considering the airlines (DAL, AMR) They were pinned at resistance on Fridaý’s opex and oil is firming up. Risk-reward looks good.

    -Phil

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  73. Question for phil
    Question for phil

    Weren’t you the one yapping about shorting ACF? “…going to ZERO”?

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  74. JakeGint

    Phil — PGH.

    Phat yields.

    _____

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  75. Phil_from_Brazil

    Still have my ACF. Yes. Also holding HMY and GLD short.
    That’s all I have in the mkt right now.
    I’m mostly in cash. I will get more aggressively short once the market retraces back to more attractive short-entry levels.

    Right now, there could be a long trade with some oil names. Plus, as I said, the airlines short off an oil rebound and good risk-reward.

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  76. Phil_from_Brazil

    Jake, thanks.

    I’ll keep am eye. PGH is good but HTE’s yield is almost 50% greater. I’m not looking to invest here, just playing the psycology of fund managers and what theyre likeliest to go after with gusto.

    Any other names you’re tracking?

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  77. j

    Hi Phil

    Just so you know I didn’t make that racist comment and would ever make a racist comment about anyone.

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  78. Phil_from_Brazil

    J,

    Just so you know…
    Couple of facts:
    1) I’m white
    2) Spend lot’s of time in Rio (have a second home there) but my primary residence is in NYC
    3) I’m a dual citizen (not a greencard holder but actual US and Brazilian citizen b/c my father is American and I was born and raised in Brazil).

    That should deflate lot’s of the BS I saw up above.
    No hard feelings though.

    -Phil

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  79. j

    Phil

    I don’t cre if people are yellow, purple or black. It doesn’t worry me.

    Sorry if I gave the impression that it does. My comment was mean to be ironic.

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  80. Frank Burns

    When will you learn about Chinese treachery?!?? Didn’t Pearl Harbor teach you anything?!??

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  81. buylo

    things got blurred out on my computer, can yous guys repeat all that shit in a different way?

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  82. j

    Frank, you fucking idiot. it was the Japanese , not the Chinese that attacked Pearl harbor.

    Doofus.

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  83. TraderCaddy

    Have to forgive Frank Burns. Somebody with the name of Frank Burns will see Chinese attacking every where. After all it was pretty bad having to share a tent with Hawkeye and Trapper John in Korea with the threat of the Chinese attacking.

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