We’re not going out like this, under the weight of some sub-prime driven credit crisis. When it’s all said and done, we’ll be back to producing meaningless nuclear submarines, throwing firecrackers at one another and producing monstrous trucks for the road, in no time at all.
Hell, Americans are an egregious breed of human. We like our beer cold and our mortgage loans dangerous.
Nowhere else in the world will you find lunatic roller coasters jam packed with people willing to die, in order to enjoy a 2 minute thrill.
We’re risk takers; it’s what we do best. Bitch and moan all you want about the “Wall Street gangsters.” But remember, it’s gangsters like that who took a gamble on “Joey Bag O Credit Cards,” by giving him a loan to buy a Mcmansion.
Sure, they got greedy, but who isn’t?
Who else would finance that stupid bitch down the block, who desperately needed a 7th coach bag?
See, don’t blame Main Streets addiction to vanity on Wall Street. The bankers that you all despise were providing a service, which was encouraged by the Government. The Government encourages us to spend all the time. Following 9/11, their message to us was to be alert and go shopping.
After this crisis passes, America will be forced to tighten its belt, since the banks will be saddled with stringent regulations. No big deal. It is the end of excess.
However, regarding the equity markets:
They’re just giving stocks away. The valuations on some names are just absurd. Sometime tonight, I will compile a top 10 “if the world doesn’t end, here’s what I am buying” list.
For all you margin call lovers, I have news:
Asshole, we were down more than 25% at one point last week. The margin selling has been done. Don’t overshoot to the downside, like you overshot to the upside, thinking the Dow was going to 15,000 and shit.
Measure your emotions and place trades with discipline.
As for me, I’ll be on Wall Street tomorrow— smacking bearshitters in the face with hot slices of pizza.
UPDATE: Asian markets set to rip out of the gates.
UPDATE II: Here is my “if the world doesn’t end, this is what I’m buying” top 10 list, broken down by the 10 principal sectors. Note: the weightings will remain a secret. So Sorry.
Financials: Deutsche Bank AG (USA) [[DB]]
Industrials: The Mosaic Company [[MOS]]
Technology: Apple Inc. [[AAPL]]
Consumer Staples: The Procter & Gamble Company [[PG]]
Consumer Discretionary: [[M]]
Energy: National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]]
Healthcare: Pfizer Inc. [[PFE]]
Materials: United States Steel Corporation [[X]]
Telecom: NTT DoCoMo, Inc. (ADR) [[DCM]]
Utilities: PG&E Corporation [[PCG]]
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As a fellow-sufferer, I can attest to the need for that 7th Coach bag.
Goddammit[sic] Fly
Does this mean I have to return my camouflage gang gear to Dick’s Sporting Goods. Shit man you said I could be in your gang!
Outstanding post! Thanks
love the paydaymax.com ad in the corner. fuggers.
I did analysis just now that found that out of 7000+ stocks, the “average” stock is 42% from its 40-day MA.
post after chargers.
haha, excellent post!
Thanks Fly. This post is just about the only confidence builder I can find online. I went long with a ton of calls in finance and energy on Friday and I’ve been puckering up all weekend to keep from shitting my intestines.
Excellent.
And if they chip a nail, they sue the amusement park, the guy running the ride, the roller coaster manufacturer, and the guy sitting next to them! For “emotional distress”.
Yeah, we’re quite a group of “risk takers”.
Fly,
Your top 10 buy list will be my number 1 read. Thanks.
Great Post Fly!
Great post FLY.
Its a great feeling to know that there’s a “chance” that the market goes up tomorrow.
About fucking time.
Might FSLR be added to your list tonight?
The DOW is going to 2389, no lower. Wait no I mean 3723, or maybe I mean 5886. What am I talking about again?
Go Chargers
Somebody needs to put Fly’s post up on Hank’s teleprompter at his next press conference, leading off with the sentence, “Americans are an egregious breed of human.” Crisis over.
Stellar, Senor T.
Nothing is more difficult, and therefore more precious, than to be able to decide.
–Napoleon Bonaparte
Another new post from the Boo-Yahh man himself:
Jim Cramer Blog
Europe Sets an Example
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
10/12/2008 7:06 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10441980.html
Editor’s note: Jim Cramer will present his 2009 stock outlook for the first time at TheStreet.com Investment Conference on Saturday, Oct. 25. Click for details.
Encouraging signs from Europe. By agreeing to backstop all banks by taking equity stakes, and by guaranteeing lending for five years, the governments there will force the banks to lend — presumably, that’s the quid pro quo of the equity stakes. The banks will basically become extensions of each country’s treasury.
This coordinated approach is what I was looking for when I wrote earlier that I was staying very negative until I saw something. When you see these actions you can’t be as negative. And given that the bond market is closed tomorrow, it is always possible that a “fix” could be in on light volume to drive the market up, something that could work with the Oscillator at minus-20. Nothing can be ruled out given the amazing volatility and the ability for the market to rally 900 points. If the market had been shut down at 3:25 p.m. we would be singing a different tune right now.
If we could extrapolate this European approach here, we would see Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) and whoever else would need it — presumably all of the regional banks that are hurting — taking federal equity and being able to get back in business again, as there has been very little lending going on anywhere. By the way, Morgan Stanley should have been able to get that money immediately from the Japanese, but our ridiculous approval system jeopardized the whole deal and allowed the shorts to kill it once the short ban was taken off.
Now, the question is, how much stigma would be attached to being in the program? If Bank of America (BAC) , JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) could step in, then we would be through a major hurdle toward recovery. Of course, we could have done this program without the Treasury’s huge Troubled Asset plan. It might not have needed congressional approval and could have been done quickly, but the administration’s laissez-faire attitude stood in the way of it. Now we are going to have the equivalent of a bank nationalization because of that laissez-faire approach. May we never forget that a hands-off philosophy toward business has turned us into a socialized economy. C’est la vie — at least a combination of bank injections and lending guarantees goes far toward clearing up the piecemeal picture of our government’s attempts to save us.
Now what we need next is for the government to push for the potential for a merger of GM (GM) and Ford (F) — something that will have to be done to save the auto industry, as well as the virtual elimination of Chrysler. This would go far toward taking care of the biggest issues. Finally, we need the government to offer insurance to guarantee annuities that are now hopeless. So many of the annuity companies failed to hedge or had Lehman hedging their downside to equities. Without that protection, we will simply be crippled with fear as most seniors and soon-to-be seniors believed these annuities to be iron clad and have little additional savings, other than decimated 401(k) plans, on which to rely.
Remember, the big issue is taking the systemic risk off the table so we can have a severe recession rather than a depression. Then we could begin to find stocks worth owning even in a severe recession. It would be no mean feat, but they could be found.
Random musings: GM has no plans for bankruptcy. These stories gall me so much, because no public company has ever had or announced a plan for bankruptcy until its credit was cancelled.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long JPM, GS and MS.
I went long with a ton of calls in finance and energy on Friday and I’ve been puckering up all weekend to keep from shitting my intestines.
I may be visualizing the above incorrectly, but methinks you ought to un-pucker before you experience the very condition you wish to avoid.
_______________
Pasties just lost their starting right tackle. Oh! the humanity!
__________
Anyone notice the eMinis and the YM up a quiet 4%!!!
Fucking Flip-flop Cramer, hedging his hysterical ass-hattery 15 minutes after he utters it.
Is it difficult to tell that this talking ass sandwich is a Democrat?
______
Here’s a post from Rev. Shark. He’s been tearing Cramer up in his posts. Rev. has been spot on too-protecting capital mode and very sceptical of the market for a solid month or so…….
Rev Shark Blog
No Reason to Rush to Exits
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/12/2008 7:30 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/revsharkblog/10441981.html
News on the wires says that eurozone governments are working on a 14-point plan to guarantee bank debt, buy stock in needy companies, and issue capital to financial institutions in return for preferred stock, etc.
There is also talk about the Fed helping Morgan Stanley (MS)to get a deal done with Mitsubishi. I’m sure by the time we open tomorrow, there will be a lot more news on the wires. Deals of this magnitude take some time, and as long as progress is being made, I think the market has a chance of stability.
As I write, the market seems optimistic, as S&P futures are indicated up an impressive 3.25%.
I see that Jim Cramer is extremely negative and is talking about a target for the DJIA as low as 4700, which would be an additional decline of 44%. It takes my breath away to even consider such a possibility. To have that come to pass, we’d basically have to have our whole economic system crash.
While the gloom is certainly thick and we have to proceed with caution, there are lots of efforts to calm nerves out there. We saw a pretty good bounce to end the day on Friday, and I think after the worst week in history we have already gone a long ways toward having our panic. It might go a bit further, but I expect there to be some underlying support from bargain hunters. A big open on Monday would invite some flipping, but if we stay positive, it will bode well.
I really cringe to see such extreme predictions, about the market when so many people are already on edge. It only serves to undermine the fragile confidence that exists and induces panic-selling. The time for caution was weeks ago, and I would not suggest that people be in a rush to sell at this point.
If you are holding high levels of cash, as I have suggested for months, this sort of panic is an indication that it might be time to put some highly speculative capital in play. While we may struggle, I don’t think this market has the potential for more than another 5-10% downside at most in the near term
Doug Kass just came out with this. He is such a douche bag.
Market Commentary
Ten Things I Am Hearing
By Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver Contributor
10/12/2008 7:39 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/marketcommentary/10441983.html
Editor’s note: This blog post originally appeared earlier Sunday on RealMoney Silver.
This is what I’m hearing:
The Bush administration/Treasury is actively considering closing the U.S. stock market to allow for a “time out” for further economic moves to be finalized and implemented. (Among the issues delaying the decision are complications surrounding Friday’s option expiration.).
Several sizeable ($10 billion-plus) hedge funds will announce their closure as early as Monday after they liquidated most of their (concentrated) equity positions late last week.
Several large funds of funds in Europe and the U.S. will also announce their closure shortly.
A formerly well-regarded investment manager, who before 2007 had outperformed the S&P 500 index for many years in a row, will announce that he will depart from his role as manager of his high-profile fund by the end of the year.
A series of cash takeovers — in the technology, energy and materials areas — are in advanced stages.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is considering directing criminal charges at the senior management of a failed Wall Street firm.
Sen. John McCain’s (R., Ariz.) presidential campaign organization is in disarray, and several high-level campaign members will be replaced this week.
Sen. Barack Obama (D., Ill.) is working on a comprehensive policy solution to the current financial and credit market distress, and it could be presented as early as Tuesday (right before the next presidential debate).
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will announce that he is not interested in continuing with the next administration (whether it is Republican or Democratic).
A larger-than-expected ($175 billion to $200 billion) fiscal stimulus package is now under serious consideration
Random musings: Cramer is a self-promoting dwarf who has helped more people lose more money than drug & alcohol addiction and now claims to have been urging prudence and caution over the past year, making him a filthy liar, too.
this stuff is golden. Hopefully you will compile all of this into a book.
Yet another post from the Boo-ya-I-suck-dick man.
Jim Cramer Blog
Why You Shouldn’t Fade This Opening
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
10/12/2008 9:01 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10441984.html
Editor’s note: Jim Cramer will present his 2009 stock outlook for the first time at TheStreet.com Investment Conference on Saturday, Oct. 25. Click for details.
Do you fade an opening that’s this strong? Do you decide that the worldwide plan to save the banks isn’t enough?
Some reasons why it might be dangerous to fade it:
The rally off the bottom was so vicious on Friday that you can see it doesn’t take much to rally. Recall what happened on Friday. It started with Apple (AAPL) and then spread to the rest of the market, aided by what we knew very little of, a plan to take stakes in banks.
We are so oversold, minus-20, an unheard of amount of selling, that it makes me think that there has to be an end, at a certain point, to where people want to sell, even if the selling returns from a higher level.
Without bank failures, and with lending, why would you not want to bet that there could be a recession rather than a depression?
Many stocks are at levels where they could be taken over for next to nothing and be additive immediately. Hence the desire from an already strapped Santander (STD) to buy Sovereign (SOV) . I also believe that JPMorgan Chase (JPM) could be up $10 on this move.
Against that, we know that there is severe stress in the system involving housing and unemployment that’s not in the market at Dow 8,500 but would be in the market at Dow 6,600, where we would be on a 1987 low — the Monday low.
I say, play it out, don’t sell. Let’s see if we can’t get something going for a couple of days, unless you have some stock you bought into the down-600 moments from Friday. Even if you are down a lot, you are being too greedy…
At the time of publication, Cramer was long JPM.
Yeah, but what about the Amero?
Meh, futures are up 30 points… I’d love to see us start green, stay green and end green tomorrow.
Would be a nice change.
-DT
“Is it difficult to tell that this talking ass sandwich is a Democrat?”
Jake, there was a time that I would respond by telling you to go dress up in a bee costume and pollinate Brandon Flowers. http://i210.photobucket.com/albums/bb118/lindyshoots/PB_LED5821A.jpg
These days, such a thought would never cross my mind.
A formerly well-regarded investment manager, who before 2007 had outperformed the S&P 500 index for many years in a row, will announce that he will depart from his role as manager of his high-profile fund by the end of the year.
Duhhh, gee Doug, I wonder who dat might be?
(LM to zero!)
______
I’m sorry, but how long did it take for Cramer to do a complete 180 degree flip flop? 37 minutes, round trip?
He and Dick Fuld should be doing a Charleston “dance off” from end of matching gibbets.
_________
Funny. Cramer sees the futures up, and suddenly he is bullish.
Anton, was that one from your “private collection?”
______
Could it be that Cramer’s nephew Cliff, the chick magnet, has been given Cramer’s password at TSCM to post as Uncle Jim?
Just got lucky with that one, Jake. Incredible, the hilarious pics you can find on the interwebs.
But I don’t have to tell you that.
Im thinking about getting long some BAC here with a tight stop.
Anyone think its not a good play?
Thanks
Ass Napkin Mike
Ass Napkin Mike, fuck, it seems that there are companies out there that are as likely to go up faster and more than BAC. I mean, it is Bank of Amerika. But then, you are the one that wears the ass napkin.
Aussie S&P up 4.9% in early trading:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/13/business/13markets.php
regarding Kass and takeovers. he is exactly right. there will be a bunch of them. another area for them is in industries that require high initial capital investment and those companies are selling for less than replacement costs.
Thanks Wood,
What do you think about solar going forward? Near term they have have been so beaten up that Im wondering if they bounce back? Or is the over-supply,economy,oil down, etc just going to destroy the sector.
Mike,
please look away from BAC. Did you forget they bought CFC & MER.
I’m long UYG at 10, if you want to play the financials maybe you look there.
I love solar here.
Chivas, got any that fit that criteria, cost of replacement is more than buying the co?
Re: ANMike and solar. I know nothing about solar, really. Except in macro terms of the entire economy, I do not pay one iota of attention to the fundies. All I can think about solar is the one analysts? comment where it was said that without subsidies, solar will have a hard time.
RC-
There are a few companies I really like too. I bought 20,000 shares (a hit load for me) of ESLR on Friday at $3.08 for a quick trade. Im hoping to get out at $4.00 tomorrow or Tuesday. They report this week so Im dumping it all before hand.
Fuck solar – even on an industrial scale it is not cost efficient unless you look out 10-15 years. You think some fucking Target is going to fork out serious coin to go solar for benefit in 2012? Not in this environment.
fly,
Here i am lauging out loud again.
that about sums up why I read this site.
Plus some pretty smart insight on the markets.
Anyone wanting to buy solar. Please do it with your own personal money.
We have been hearing how wonderful solar is going to be for the past 50 years. Funny how that leftist racket always needs heavy subsidies to keep it going.
The bear market and economic hardship will focus everyone’s mind on what is important….. which is to use low cost production for energy….. meaning coal.
Hot off the wire (1 min ago): US will guarantee Mitsubishi’s investment in Morgan Stanley!
Fly is right – the financials are gonna rip on Monday.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/business/13morgan.html?hp
time to go to the zoo with my laptop and let the chimp throw darts at my WSJ – then just go long those stocks that get hit!
The Fly = FAIL
Hot off the wire (1 min ago): US will guarantee Mitsubishi’s investment in Morgan Stanley!
Fly is right – the financials are gonna rip on Monday.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/business/13morgan.html?hp
Posted 1 min ago at NYTimes: US will guarantee Mitsubishi’s deal with Morgan Stanley
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/business/13morgan.html?hp
Let the financials rip!
Cliff Mason, there’s a fagfuck that needs to make out with the 3rd rail. Or “step” in front of a bus. I can’t stand his “I know it all and thanks to my Uncle everyone gets to hear about it” attitude.
I also can’t stand Kass and how whever one of his “predictions” comes true (usually long after he “called” it, if ever) Cramer has to have a big circle jerk on RM for him.
Fucking RM…
Mitsubishi deal is guaranteed by US Government (says New York Times as of 1 min ago)
If you are holding high levels of cash, as I have suggested for months, this sort of panic is an indication that it might be time to put some highly speculative capital in play…
Yeah, right. Bank of Sealy buddy. Most people already have massive exposure to the stock market six ways to Sunday. If the market doesn’t go down 50% off ’07 highs they get not one red cent more. Any rally will be temporary.
Another sign that the market will rally stronger than a escaped convict on PCP: Beverly Hills Chihuahua was the #1 movie at the box office (again). Translation: America is too dumb to know the trouble it’s in.
WHO LOVES YA, BABY????? WTF!! I am gonna bet the ranch Looooong tomorrow because it is the patriotic thing to do. BE GREEDY WHEN THE LITTLE PIKERS ARE SKEERED, NO?
Something tells me UYG will be on Fly’s top ten list……..
mitsubishi, what is your news service? tradethenews didnt report that until 10:20est
Jake:
Lady Liberty always lands on her feet, though.
Fly: Inspiring post. Maybe all the margin calls are satisfied and the hedgies are blown up, and Joe sixpack has sold his 401K. The future keeps getting faster, and when you think about it, this bear market has been swift and ferocious. Unfortunately, everyone I read is calling a bottom except Roubini. Even Cramer flipped bullish. WTF?
Alas, I’m going to hunt elk tomorrow (literally) – please don’t start any new bull markets until I get back.
So what u guys looking to pick up –
My Faves:
FCX NOV NYX VLO (teens!) STT PRU
Was debating some cef’s like AINV GAB, these things are trading way below nav and have yields around 20%, entry here looks reasonable vs. any debt they have that may default.
hahaha i love that the banner was changed from the tanks.
Yeah the market will rally – until it doesn’t.
The LEH auction anyone?
The few more to come?
Old Beardy says: this will be the greatest sucker rally of all time.
And please – buy my album.
Sorry but America is a corrupt POS.
My source? Try Page One of the NY TIMES! Its on their website dated for tomorrow now. Morgan Stanley deal is guaranteed by USA, which means financials WILL rally tomorrow.
We will close red.
The stock market isn’t the only place for incredible bargains. I was looking at a house on 35 acres in upstate NY this weekend. Asking price 600K. The place was top notch construction and architecture. Radiant heating in the floors, the best materials all around, built like a fortress to last. The view was stunning of the hills north of Albany. You put that house anywhere else & it goes for 2-3 mill. Built 7 years ago at a construction cost of 850k not included the land. A bunch of edible apple trees on the property. Elevator shaft in the house. Just an absurd value. Family feud & they have to sell. How many of these all over the country?
Will you bears fuck off. Your time is done and I hope the pain is equal to the 8th circle of Dante’s hell 🙂
look you skull fuckers,
1. the world’s banking system is getting socialized.
2. Credit spreads will come down with a vengence when people realize the governments are behind the banks.
3. They’re printing money like there’s no tomorrow.
The great monetary expansion of the 2008 has started.
So anyone wanting to stay in cash and not buy hard assets or stocks deserves to be made poor.
hard assets values and stock valuation will go up nominally very quickly.
I need some help here people. How can ETF’s pay dividends?
I see Goldman now has a $70 price target on Oil for end of the year.
What was it like 3 months ago they made the $170 call on oil?
Their focus list also blows – Goldman research is now just a 3rd-tier blog.
Futures trending down somewhat.. not good
lol
Yeah, right. Bank of Sealy buddy.
LOL. Good one. I think it was “Bank of Sealy” that blew up First Boston just before I went to work for them.
Odd, no?
_________________
Bruce — did you check the bottom of that elevator shaft?
___
Sorry, but Devildog is a piece of shit
Hey jake;
You worked for first Boston? Ummm so did I. Good firm.
Fly are you looking at buying long term here, or playing for a shorter term bounce. You know as well as anyone how large this credit mess is. With masssive credit unwinding, we are facing a period of major contraction that could last for years, and there’s really nothing they can do but delay the inevitable, no?
Really, I could see a very strong rebound being possible here, but I can’t see it lasting, and in the grand scheme of things, I still say it’s a bear market, this may be the end of current downtrend…
Even so, I have to admit valuations are rediculous, and I have been buying chicken shit amounts very gradually, but it just seems that people will resume there retarded ways, and at the end of this sharp rally, people will again be over leveraged, and more contraction, and margin calls will continue yet again. I can’t see even the best valued companies really surviving this brutal process, but maybe I’m wrong.
what say you fly?
FLY-
Im off the store to buy some big league chew and some vasoline.
-Ass Napkin Mike
What happen man I bought stocks two weeks ago and just got back from vacation? 🙁
This blog is worse than Yahoo Message Boards.
Dow 15,000?
Hey Shitbag, get off the internets and get those wastebaskets empty, pronto, before I start looking a little “too close” at this here green card.
__
Heartbreaking thing about recent market activity to me is that I have not be able to take better advantage of it to make some coin.
Thinking about a different approach I seldom use, which is straddling shit. Hoping there will be enough volatility that in some cases both sides will pay.
Thinking…what when how. Man this stuff is hard!
.
I guess you didn’t get the memo. A bulk of the margin calls are happening Oct. 13. You think the Oct.2-3 calls were bad, get ready. I’ll see you on Wall Street. Too bad you’ll be bitch slapped like Kimbo Slice. The Fly is overrated.
I fucking love this country! I may wish Ron Paul was president and the Bushes exiled to the bottom of the ocean, but this is my country and I love it.
No way we go to zero.
The fly is a good guy, Dumb trader.At least he’s got the balls to put up his positions in public view.
so fuck off.
America is a fake, corrupt, lying, stealing, cheating, phony baloney, hypocritical POS. Other than that it sucks.
You start down this path, Noah, where does it end?
IT ends when we’ve won.
180K NEW LONG…pay me.
That’s the spirit, Devil.
RE: Juice
Lots of bargains in RE all over the country. If you take a look at the stock market and see how certain companies are trading at ‘the world is ending’ valuations ,the RE market has even more absurd value. I may have mentioned before, out here in Phoenix I am picking up rental property with 20, 30 even 40% cash on cash returns. This is truly obscene. Anytime you can buy RE and get a 10% + return on your money through cash flow, you’re getting a good deal. If that number is up to 20% , thats an excellent deal. 30-40% is unheard of .
But that’s the problem we are facing. Banks are not lending or making it nearly impossible for 95% of people to get loans. So owners who absolutely have to sell are being forced to unload at ridiculously low prices. Add in all this foreclosure and bank owned RE and you start to get the picture. Too much supply and not enough demand. The RE market is extremely illiquid and thus the bargains are galore.
Once the lending market is corrected and banks start to ease up on borrowing, RE is going to see one hell of a bounce. There are plenty of potential buyers on the sidelines. They just can’t qualify for a loan.
haha, watch DEVILDOG get his panties all bunched up because he stayed short over the weekend.
unfortunately, it looks like this market may have blown its wad in overnight trading… expect to see (emini sp500) test 940 then a run towards 870 area by eod. Hope I’m wrong, but this is a nice up side touch of the egregious downtrend line.
S&P futes currently trading at the high of the evening, up 42.80. How exactly is that a blown wad?
The Aussie S&P opened up 4% and is now cruising to a close of up 5.6%! Rally led by financials. Cmon UYG Monday, baby!
Check it: Australian S&P opened up 4% is now rocking towards a close up of 5.6% and it is led by gains in the financials. Symbol AXKO
steph,
a 4.8% (so far) move in overnight trading doesn’t leave much room for further upside in normal trading. However, if we can break this downtrend, it will act as support on a retest as we run back up towards 1020 area. It would have been nice to see a more subdued move overnight and allow the momentum to gain throughout the normal trading day. Now, you are going to see many traders play the open as a fade.
I disagree. A very strong sustained overnight market is needed to discourage fading and instead entice short-covering and buying. Imagine if the US were to announce guaranteed interbank lending on top of that in the morning. I’ll only consider a blown wad after a fade. They tried briefly earlier on but it only came off to up 24 or so and the rally resumed. I better not wake up and this thing has dwindled. At that point I would agree with you.
Steph,
again, I hope I’m wrong about the fade and this market has made the bottom and doesn’t look back, but the risk remains.
Don’t forget why we put W and McCain out there. If this goes south, we’ll roll it up and hang it around both their necks.
The market has not rallied since the Thursday before the last options expiration. Further down the rabbit hole we go this week, until the world seems on the verge of destruction. Then is a good time to push your cash to work. (early Thursday morning)
I feel huge news coming. Morgan Stanley Collapse?
Keep eating those shrooms.
We gap higher tomorrow, effectively peeling off on the bears’ faces.
Watchu talking about, Willis? Morgan Stanley is not collapsing, the deal with Mitsubishi is going through.
REUTERS EUROSTOXX 50 FUTURES UP 7 PCT EARLY, DAX FUTURES UP 6.8 PCT, CAC-40 FUTURES UP 5.3 PCT
Hey, Look! A huge falling knife. Run quick and get underneath it!
hey hey…my my….the stock market wiiiiilllll never die!
Thanks for the list Master Fly. If looking for a different financial, MI looks good for a double. It was one of the top 3 in last weeks Barrons.
Noticed your lack of Tech 🙁
… and Fly, don’t forget about Devildog’s asshat of the day, week, or millenium award…
I bet you NOV, MOS, DB, and PG are heavily weighted. So sorry. nice list
Just put AAPL on there.
It was a close one between, CSCO, RIMM and HPQ. At the end of the day, CSCO’s cash flow cannot be ignored.
Shroom:
At the present, I own very few stocks. I scrapped the idea of diversification for hedging long ago.
Up until mid last week I was short.
Then, I bulked up on UYG, MOS, NOV, TBT, AAPL and a few others.
The above list is on my watchlist, meaning I will buy them soon.
He’s buying AAPL for tech. Last time he got in on some ROM action and got bootstomped – so fuck tech diversity. Fly, hows bout you post the list in order from egregious amounts of buying and on down.
and, pending tomorrow’s rally, don’t forget to crown devildog. good night chumps.
Shroomz says: I feel huge news coming. Morgan Stanley Collapse?
NYTimes says on the overnight that the US is guaranteeing the Mitsubishi deal. So it must be true, right?
My list: HP ACI FCX HPQ GOOG ATVI JPM PFE MCD T
I will also focus on many more energy names. MCF SWN HK CHK RIG
Goldmans on review at Platt’s for counter party risk on oil trades; preceded by MS and LEH.
Nice company…
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSP38022220081013?rpc=44
Futures at +400. Holla!
Thoughts? Anybody fading the gap at the open?
2% + Gaps And Their Tendency To Pull Back
It’s late Sunday night and the S&P futures are up over 4%. Typically when the market gaps up by massive amounts it tends to pull back at some point in the next few days. Below are listed all instances where the SPY gapped up by 2% or more. In 19 of 20 cases it posted a close below the gap open within the next 5 days.
http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/10/2-gaps-and-their-tendency-to-pull-back.html
don’t forget pcr-
Central banks pledge “unlimited capital” to un-freeze credit market?
That’s my kind of capital!
Marc Faber says the market was the most oversold in history & SPX 1000 or more is very likely, but after an extremely oversold rally, it will likely drift down. He points out the Nikkei was at 39k and now 20 years later, still sits under 10K.
He says commercial re is still too high.
I think you jump all over SRS at 90 with both hands and add your feet if you see it sub 80. At 70, margin the house & the family. It will see 150 again.
Here’s my thesis on why we shouldn’t fear a new bull market developing.
The world essentially changed over the weekend with the world’s governments essentially ensuring that no bank will be allowed to fail and most certainly there will not be another run on a bank. Importantly Morgan Stanley was also not allowed to fail as we receive further confirmation that the Japanese bank will receive a new proposal that allows them to stick all their investment into preferred stock more or less quietly protected by the US Treasury.
The effect of these actions will begin to been seen over the next few weeks as the credit markets begin to slowly unlcog. Just as importantly the great global monetary expansion has begun. We will continue to witness further interest cuts in the major economies. The ECB, which has stupidly run a restrictive monetary policy, will begin ease to zero real rates, expected around 2% nominal for the cash rates. The US will also ease too and the Japanese are performing their usual tricks of not allowing the cash rate to fall while progressing towards a form of quantitative easing. China has also good room to cut rates.
The genesis of the next bull market has begun. It will be further enhanced by central banks acting very timidly in the facing of rising inflation pressures. The Flymeister made a fairly significant comment in that he felt there are no further margin call selling pressure in the market as they have all been basically cleaned out. So between now and Xmas the forced selling we may see is by mutual and hedge funds as a result of redemptions.
There will be no stopping the central banks from literally pouring money in the system if there is a need add the fact that the banking systems are basically fully protected for all depositors will result little to no pressure in the interbank market.
This of course doesn’t remove the probability of a recession, however the stock markets will recover and go to levels that people will think are unbelievable. The central banks will help this along.
From here to Xmas I plan to actually borrow money to fund my position in the market as I intend to go 150% long. Inflation of course will be the bogey man and the average guy will have their wages cut through currency deprecation, but this is not time to be thinking about the small guy as the rich as those who understand how the system works are expected to make money with the help of the central banks pouring cash into the system. So lets enjoy the ride up as it going to turn into one hell of a beautiful bull market.
Fly,
Love your DB pick. But did it sell off on any company-specific issues? It seems to have minimal mortgage exposure.
Juice
Forget marc. he’s only good in bear markets to scarce the shit out of people. The guy was promoting the idea the US should raise rates only the other week. Marc’s been bearish since the 80’s calling for the end of the world.
He gets some things right, but I really think he’s too slow on this one. It will be an unhealthy rise up in the sense that inflation will burn people, which is why one needs to be really leveraged to to make money.
J – Faber always calls for rallies despite his bearish leanings. I think the S&P has room to 1100-1200 & then we reevaluate. No new bull for years, imo. Although many mini bulls, like todays gap open.
Many people have lost jobs, lost homes, lost everything. There are no new jobs being created. There will still be more job losses ahead. It will take many years for job losses & wages to recover. You are right about inflation. Food prices will remain high. Oil will find a bottom and rise again. Most likely outcome from here is stagflation.
Devildog is called Devildog…cuz the futures just caused him to drop something that looks like a devildog in his undershorts. A clown-raping for the shorts should follow. Looking forward to the show…
NFZ
Todd Harrison:
“So we’re clear, I’m looking for a sharp rally that shifts psychology and seemingly sounds an “all clear” before what might be the harshest wave lower. Will that happen? I’m taking it one step at a time and taking nothing for granted!”
RC – Stay away from solar. You’ll be disappointed if you go long. Reason why: There will be less interest and growth with Oil down.
Financials: UYG
Industrials: GRA
Technology: GOOG
Consumer Staples: NUS
Consumer Discretionary: HWD
Energy: GTLS
Healthcare: MATK
Materials: OMG
Telecom: PCS
Utilities: FPL
This Kashkari seems like he is ready to kick some ass.
I had a Swedish pancake for breakfast the other day called the Bo Lundgren.
I also had a special breakfast once at Waffle House called the Bo Jackson but that’s a different story.
Fuck me dead. The world is going to end pretty soon or we’re really playing the movie idiocracy in real life. Paul Krugman one of the least knowledgeable economists working in an Ivy League university has won the Nobel prize for economics.
This is the guy who thinks money is neutral.
They are running out of economists to award the so called Nobel Prize for economics.
The only one left is Karl Marx and I am sure he has been considered by the yahoos in the past.
America, Fuck Yeah!
Real good to see that the Nobel Prize hasn’t become politicized or anything.
Sheesh.
+__________________
TC — Karl Marx just did win, no worries.
_____
Jake
He doesn’t even understand basic economics.
Krugman says:
Here’s the problem: As a matter of simple arithmetic, total spending in the economy is necessarily equal to total income (every sale is also a purchase, and vice versa). So if people decide to spend less on investment goods, doesn’t that mean that they must be deciding to spend more on consumption goods—implying that an investment slump should always be accompanied by a corresponding consumption boom? And if so why should there be a rise in unemployment?”
Commenter savaging his understanding
Where he misses the whole point of the theory, that credit creation exactly decouples price from value.
Krugman doesn’t understand how money is not neutral.
Sorry, “j from Aussie” beat me to it.
Fucking Krugman, a functionally retarded Bush/Republican hater who literally hasn’t published anything of interest since the 80’s before he went nuts.
No, no politics here.
Fuckwads.
_______
It’s an embarassment to all deserving economics thinkers who actually did win the prize.
Yeah, Krugman’s the equivalant to Black & Scholes… Friedman, Keynes, etc…
LOL.
TBT up nicely… all according to plan.
Gold not up with TBT, but that may be according to plan as well.. 😉
_
Remember, VIX is still 67; don’t get shaken out 🙂
fuck Krugman, they should give a nobel prize to Mr. Fly, for his precise analysis on how to bank massive unlevered coin while consuming large amounts of monster soda and dunking donut coffee at the sametime punching eyebrows, mustaches and chest hairs.
I don’t think any previous nobel prize winners have this kind of accomplishments.
Yeah. Like they should have awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics to Queer Larry Kudlow.
Somehow I missed MDT at $35 on Friday, there was just too much going on at once 🙁
Fuck it … sold my SSO. I don’t trust this rally.
Yeah. Like they should have awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics to Queer Larry Kudlow.
Yeah, that’s the choices available. Krugman or Kudlow. This year they are only considering political asshats whose names start with “K.”
If not for that parameter, Cramer would’ve won.
Idiot.
____________
One of the best Nobel economics awards in the past years IMO was to some guy from India who introduced micro loans in developing countries so that the individual(s) could establish a business. It was a few years ago and I don’t remember his name.