Most of you are drama queen mother fuckers. If any of you expressed yourselves, in such a bitch-like defeatist manner, to me, in person, I’d have a dog bite your fucking face off, mustache and all.
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,473 Blog Posts
Thank God Fly’s stock picking skills are better than his taste in music…how old are you any way?
This punk ass wanna be gansta drive by bullshit will only make you FEEL more like a man but will cause your already minuscule balls to shrink further..ha!
Actually, the rap shit is sort of a joke. I am 32 and never listen to street poets, mainly due to Mrs. Fly banning it.
I prefer rock.
Then you truly are a stock picking genius….and Mrs. Fly is truly wise and the better of your halves (a given)….keep up the good work on this site….
That said….what does the time machine tell us for market open….anyone?
Long RTH Short AMZN a nice hedge play going forward. I’m reading Barrons and Fred Hickey describes AMZN as being ‘ a retailer with a 50 P/E heading into the worst economic slowdown in decades.’ Also thinks weakness in Euro and Pound will take ‘painful bite’ out of earnings. I’ve been short AMZN for over a year . Started in the 60s and built it up into the 70s and 80s and just watched in horror as the losses mounted. Justice is finally being served. Fu*k AMZN!
I know AMZN will drop below $30 before this is over.
down 1000 points on Monday
Pump up the volume! Pump up the volume!
BUD @ $58.50 set to be bought by InBev for $70 this quarter. 20% risk free gain per Barrons Michael Santoli.
BUD no longer since Barron’s got a hold of it…
Game time in 10 minutes.
RC vs. Trader Caddy
My Longhorns knocked off those blasted Sooners. Hook ’em !
Have my Gator cap on and just scared my wife doing “Orange and Blue” with myself in the mirror.
Notre Dame/NC- good game.
RNWK – $517.75 Mkt. cap. $422.7 net cash
Flys favorite – TSCM 125.89 mkt cap 80.45 mil net cash
IPAS – 94.1 69.69
TUNE- 106.1 82.78
OPXT – 178.36 174.6
GSIG – 100.46 183.27 ( Crazy)
RC
Why do you think we go down 1000 pts on Monday? Do you think any good news comes out Sunday night?
I have a feeling they will announce that inter-bank loans will be covered.
I agree with the 1000 point down call on Monday…I’m not happy about being long over the weekend…that was a mistake. The G7 Is not going to give us anything…and the margin clecks will be selling everything come Monday morning.
Mike With The Unfortunate First Name,
Here’s a Debbie Downer repost: http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/printarticle.asp?id=mwo101008
Dammit, this will be a long night TC.
MIke,
news cannot help us at this point.
DOW will find an intermediate bottom at 7000 this week. Final bottom will be at 1500 in 2010. Global depression will last until 2015.
Down 10% Monday. If a few hundred billion in liquidation is enough to knock this flimsy punk-ass market down 20% then everyone will know it and everyone will sell. Sell the rallies, sell the dips. That is all.
BTW CAP, congrats!
WTF? Did the world end while I was watching a movie? It’s Armageddon …. again?
I think it’s time to revive Fly’s campaign for President. Write him in on the ballot, he will appoint Jake Secy of the Treasury and Alpha will be the Secy of Defense.
BTW Cap Amazon is the best retailer online, which I grudgingly admit even as they F-me over year after year. They cannibalize sales from their own 3rd party sellers to make their own numbers. My September sales on Amazon stunk but Amazon’s sales will be fine.
Despite the great potential irony, hope you weren’t watching “Armageddon.”
That movie was so bad it made my eyes hurt.
Nope, I was watching a sci fi movie called Sunshine, and then Atonement from the book by Ian McEwan. I can feel a late night session of movies on Sci-Fi channel coming on, it’s incredibly relaxing for me.
Hope you’re having a good weekend, Anton (and all ibc’ers)
Danny Boyle always makes good stuff. I liked Atonement just because they don’t try for epic scale in many movies these days. Too expensive unless it’s digitally created. Have a fine weekend, Boca.
The male members should stop reading immediately and get back to gladiator school to prepare for the days ahead.
Heh, heh, “male members.”
Heh, heh.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4s0nzsU1Wg
More Jack single barrel and some country music tonight.
I’m getting my “Hillbilly Bear Grylls” on tonight.
My 30-year-old kid who wouldn’t know a stock from a bond told me, quite sensibly, “Dad, how bad can the world economy get? They still have the labor, the factories, and the raw material
to keep people working. This “Armageddon” stuff
is bullshit.”
He went on to say “it doesn’t make any difference if the stock markets go to near zero. It’s going down because a handful of people are manipulating it, trying to take retirement savings away from the old people.”
So what? Just make sure no more than half your money is in stocks, and then if it goes to near zero, YOU will have the money to buy!”
“But stop worrying about guns and food and depressions. The world is too advanced for that!” And don’t worry if the market goes
down to 1000.”
And THOSE comments made me put everything
in perspective.
If you need your son to tell you that, you’re an idiot.
Back to Bosox.
buy big oil, it only goes up. BWAHAHAHA!!
Blah Blah Blah… is it going to be long or short Monday? Can the Gee-Whiz-Seven clamp down the libor and give this bitch a baby rally or are we all going to be teabagging some rottweiler named Gus?
KO is a defensive name.
d_e_f_e_n_s_i_v_e
class dismissed.
arrogant prick.
More Crash, smart kid you have there. I’ve been telling my wife and others that the plan is to raid and take all the stock fund money from 401ks for the last 2 years. The 1%ers are doing it. Funny how they get away with stealing the fruits of the masses lifetime labor and get away with it.
Update: The latest from the G7 and G20 is that they have pledged to work together. The G20 will meet and party again in Sao Paulo on 11/8 & 9. That is all.
Result: Huge 1,500 point DOW rally on Monday…NOT!
Learning: Never bet on politicians fixing anything let alone the global financial crisis.
Here endeth the lesson.
More Crash:
http://www.amazon.com/End-Food-Paul-Roberts/dp/0618606238
Dog:
All this prophecy is giving me a fucking headache.
You know you are setting yourself up to be internet asshat of the week, right?
Fly:
No. You are.
BTW, I’ll be taking a lot of your coin on Monday. Sorry.
WOW!
As natural-gas giant Chesapeake Energy Corp. revealed more financial problems Friday, the company disclosed that its co-founder and chief executive, Aubrey McClendon, had been forced to sell substantially all his shares to meet margin calls.
Mr. McClendon had been a major holder in his company, owning about 33.5 million shares as of Sept. 30, a stake of more than 5%. Between Wednesday and Friday, he sold 31.5 million of those shares — 94% of his holdings — for $569 million.
…gotta sorta agree with…ah hem…”Anonymous”…
wrt, the muse selections on this Blog !!!
Love’ya FLY…but that “HipHop” garbage has got to go !!!
I mean…jeeez…can ya add a pinch of diversity ?
If I want “HipHop” I can watch a freakin’ McDonalds commercial…for Christ’s sake !!!
Withallduerespectofcourse !!!
I knew you were going to say that.
Oh, one more trading lesson. Market surprises are to the downside in BEAR markets. Odd no?
Mother fucker!!!!
99.8% of the people on this thread think we will be down BIG on Monday……FUCK.
Is there a chance we rally?
Does anyone think the Gov. will come out Sunday night and pull a rabit out of their ass?
I think any 1000 point puke must come later.
My guess is a shitload of panic selling has left institutions overweight cash, and possibly unbalanced as to sector allocations.
A fairly substantial rally over the next few weeks is needed to suck PM’s into buying it up.
Fly, you staying long even with nothing concrete from the G7?
Yeah…the rabbit will be brown and smell like shit. It will mirror all the other turds they have laid at our feet lately. We are so screwed…
Re: DevilDog
DevilDog was a fixture at Fly’s Ye Olde Blogue.
He spewed the same rhetoric as now, throughout the better part of 2007.
He got killed, as the markets climbed onward, despite his dire warnings.
I suspect that his arrival is now just as ill-timed as his first coming.
No offense, Dog.
Right, right…The public has already been swindled by Wall Street for half their investments, I’m sure they’ll be eager to hand over the other half…People are funny like that.
AN Mike, If 99.8 people think the market will be down, then it will do everything to confound the majority. Still watching the game? Crisp just got on base.
Here is a fun little exercise for one of you smart fuckers – Wood, RC ,Danny – anyone
Go prepare a list of around 20 stocks that have a high probability of doubling by December 31st. The selling we are seeing the last few weeks is the result of forced liquidations by Hedge funds and margined investors. Quality names are being traded at ‘the world is ending’ valuations.
Here is the criteria for these stocks –
1. They should display signs of forced liquidation e.g CHK over the last few days.
2. Market cap of at least $2 billion ( to eliminate penny type and more risky stocks )
3. Not dependent on the US consumer. ( The world is still growing and will continue to grow and their wealth is real unless ours that was built on financial gimmickry)
Top of my head I figure CHK and FCX are high probability doubles from here till Dec. 31st. RSX is an entire market index that could double by year end.
Get to work. Find me those 20 stocks. It’ll be a good opportunity for all of us to make boat loads of $$$. Imagine buying January calls on all these names and some of them do actually double.
meant to say
3. Not dependent on the US consumer. ( The world is still growing and will continue to grow and their wealth is real UNLIKE ours that was built on financial gimmickry)
Oh Fuck … I’m Buzzed! Been Sippin’ fine wine from fucking Napa Valley and shit.
Ta-Ta fuckers … I’m off to Q steaks on the grill and then some precious time with the little lady in the spa … it’s heating up as I type! 🙂
BTW, Fuck Off!
CAP, not a bad idea, but why make it so hard?
Instead, why not find a list of 20 stocks that will double just by getting back to their 20 day simple moving averages? The 20/20 simplicity is invigorating…
Their 50 day moving averages? 50 that will double by getting back to their 50s…
The 2xETFs are a great place to start.
Shed – ironically, BOOM fits that category, methinks.
The Rays-BoSox game is making me crazy with mood swings worse than the DJIA.
I have pulled out my cowbell that I used at a Mississippi State football game a few years ago. You haven’t lived until you spend a weekend in Starkville, MS.
Nah, BOOM is not near a candidate for a moving average double.
Close 17.06
50 day average 26.85
UYM and DIG are both doubles at the 20 day moving average.
DIG a double plus enough to take momma out for robster.
A nation is not in danger of financial disaster merely because it owes itself money.
– Andrew Mellon
Nice, CAP. Niiice, Wood. I looked at CHK melting down like that Nazi in Raiders of the Lost Ark and thought they were about to announce their most productive source of natural gas was actually the guy who played Norm on Cheers or something. Couldn’t have pulled the trigger, anyway, as I lost the feeling in my hands at some point during the day and my “regular” broker was hiding under his desk speed dialing is mom.
But speaking of 2xETFs, I bought DGP on Thursday because gold seemed like a lay up, and, between you and me, I am often greedy and sometimes look for “the easy money.” It is a character flaw I work hard to change… Until I hit, which I used to be known to do, at which point I feel the hand of God upon my shoulder and know that I am invincible and say, “the rules, they do not apply to me.”
At the moment, by contrast, I appear to be “vincible.” (sic)
Jake and some of some of you other anti-Communists knew it far better to hit the subterranean MINERS of the yellow stuff. I am now looking at GFI, AUY, the BHPs and RIOs, etc.
Any favorite miners or other gold stocks amongst you?
BTW, I read a wag recently who speculated that the recent fall of platinum had much to do with a shift to gold in some big funds, for those of you who cast a wider metal net. Palladium, of course, has fallen off a cliff because the world has stopped building automobiles, indefinitely, save for Vipers.
Thanks in advance and don’t forget to go to church tomorrow and pray for Uncle Sam, in the hospital on a ventilator, no matter your faith or lack thereof.
The Fly Says:
A nation is not in danger of financial disaster merely because it owes itself money.
– Andrew Mellon
Too bad we owe the rest of the world that have bought our teasuries.
– DEVILDOG
Er, that long gold stuff was me.
I think Dog meant “tea bags,” but I really can’t be sure.
Devil, I am beginning to believe the Euro is much more vulnerable to failure than the dollar.
Also, remember the dollar is valued relative to other currencies.
With those things in mind, the dollar, I’m beginning to believe, will hold steady, or even continue to strengthen.
The Asians cannot suffer the double death of declining equity values coupled with a decline in the reserve currency in which they’ve bought billions.
When it comes down to it, the American brand is still the strongest and the best brand, and the most likely to survive the global recession/depression.
I think much of the problem in coming to a consensus among the G7 about inter-bank lending guarantees stems from the politics and resentments between Euro countries trying to figure out how to deal with the potential collapse of their currency. Somebody is going to be the goat, and, ironically, it won’t be Romania.
Dinner time.
Ok, enough with the “nothing concrete from the G7” stuff. If I were to announce something big, I wouldn’t do it on Friday night or Saturday morning, lest the impact get watered down before Monday.
Plus these comments that have been popping up all day:
GERMANY’S MERKEL – THERE WILL BE CLARITY ON MONDAY ABOUT THE RESPONSE
MCCORMICK-G7 HAD “ABSOLUTE COMMON VIEW” ON URGENCY OF SITUATION, ACTIONS BEING EXECUTED
AUSTRALIA’S PM SAYS GOV’T TO GUARANTEE ALL BANK DEPOSITS FOR THREE YEARS
AUSTRALIA’S PM SAYS GOV’T WILL GUARANTEE ALL TERM WHOLESALE FUNDING FOR AUSTRALIAN BANKS
BOUTROS-GHALI — SURE THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF SPECIFIC MEASURES COMING FORWARD IN COMING DAYS
And I know I read something else that specific details would be announced Sunday or Monday but I can’t find it.
Fly is now just talking his book. When he was short a week ago he was a “firm believer in Armageddon.” A couple more down days and he’ll flip to bear again.
@Donny: What’s the little lady’s name? PALMela? (I’m just mad that I don’t have a spa) 😛
@Shed n CAP: I just ran a Stockfetcher.com scan on that double/EMA 20 idea. Post in PG to follow.
Another thing…I feel a sudden urge to deliver flying roundhouse kicks to the solar plexus of those who keep calling for the capitulation to occur. To occur? What the hell do ya think just happened this week, Sunday walk in the park ho-hum trading?
Since folks like to talk about CHK, let’s use that as the perfect example. About 2 and a half weeks ago, it was trading in a $37-$42 range. One week ago, it fell below $30. Yesterday it traded at fucking $11.99 and then proceeded to close at $16.52. So yeah, so when is this damn capitulation coming? Won’t anyone puke up this stock already? Yeesh, what is capitulation supposed to be, a buck seventy-five?
The main collapsing hedge funds have presumably already blown up and liquidated, and the CEO of the company was taken out back and shot by way of having his stock stripped away from him and unceremoniously dumped in the market at fire sale prices.
You know what all that was? Capitulation.
Plus, on Friday, the three or four times they tried revisiting the lows, the volume seemed to dwindle and there was no interest in pushing it lower.
Listen, the market has been smashed so much already that it doesn’t even matter if they announce something stupid before Monday, it’s already built in. So if for some assclownish reason the market felt like tanking again, I don’t believe it would stay down very long. That is why you have to have your positions on beforehand.
I am long up my ying-yang, more than I have ever been in my life. I noticed mid-day on Friday, whilst sweating bullets as I couldn’t get out of my fairly sizeable positions if I wanted to without knocking my stocks down enough to hurt immensely, that there really wasn’t much in the way of offerings either. The selling was coming from people just dumping by hitting the bid. Therefore, if any conviction of a bottom hits, there is a vacuum to the upside before hitting sellers, at least on the midcaps I am long. Which I saw partly come to fruition during the late day rally. Meaning that it would be absolutely impossible to catch the initial large move up if you are not already invested. So you sit tight and pray that the drawdown never becomes large enough that you have to get out before imploding.
Wood, I agree to a point. However, basing one fiat currency against another doesn’t make much sense to me anyway. I’ll leave that debate to the currency traders. I obviously believe we are headed for a major depression and that means deflation which should keep the dollar value stable to rising. I think gold will fall also and am waiting for the panic spike to enter a good short on GLD. I know I was early in 2007 as far as my call, however, I’ve been proven correct. Fortunately, I trade price daily and didn’t get hurt in ’07 and I’ve made a ton in ’08 anyway. I keep telling my wife that I need to factor in the stupidity of the masses(cow herd following endless BULL B.S.) times a factor of at least ten times what I believe is the maximum of how stupid the herd can be and factor that into my trading in spite of my long term beliefs. I’m getting better at playing the counter trend rallies as a result since I now know that stupidity plays an important role. Live and learn.
BTW, we don’t rally until all the stupid cows are done selling next week. I’m still targeting DOW 7000 before the counter trend rally starts. However, I’ll wait to see and go to cash at the close until the market confirms the intermediate bottom. Friday was not it.
Devil- good times, 07.
Does your current call include the 10 multiple for the stupid masses?
Monday is an up day. Seems built it. But you want to see “selling into every rally” wait until Tuesday. Seems like that is the day it crashes.
Wood, I think so, however, stupidity is very hard to measure and at times is limitless. Take our government for example. Republican or Democrat makes no difference. Then there are the stupid cows and sheep that actually vote thinking it will make a difference and they won’t get slaughtered as a result. And the game goes on.
I think that if you really really really want to teach the rest of the public that hasn’t already learned a lesson about investing, a lesson about investing, then you let the Dow climb back up into the high 9s before slipping it back down to 7250.
And then you do it again.
BTW, and this is true. I was on the Vette site tonight reading a post about owners buying GM stock since it is a bargain. One of the younger owners that has never bought stock before said he wanted to buy some and could he use a credit card with a broker to do it. More solid evidence of the major depression needed to bitch slap the bull shit economy of ours based on buying stuff with debt as 70% of our GDP. Can anything be more amazingly stupid as that? I think that exceeds my maximum stupid times ten factor. Unfucking believable.
Devildog:
Thanks for the advice.
Please list you rpositons so we can figure how well you do next week.
Thanks
short sears holdings, nuff said
Everyone waiting for a package to ensure the proper functioning of the interbank market should be very disappointed at this stage.
However youcan lend to any Australian Bank as you have the full backing of the Australian government which thanks to the previous conservative government no long has nay debt. Yes the Australian government is now debt free.
How’s that for moral hazard.
WTF is that shit on the cover page?
Don’t tell my young Jeremiah has gone all “artsy” on us?
_______
More Jack single barrel and some country music tonight.
On your recommendation I tried some of that last night at some booshit black tie think I had to go to.
It’s absolute swill.
Serious, get ye some Woodford Reserve, or heck, almost any premium (real) bourbon, instead.
If it’s a Brown Forman thing, and you’re trying to be a loyal stockholder, they make Woodford too.
Btw — I do think BF-B is a nice bargain down here.
____
Any favorite miners or other gold stocks amongst you?
I will be very sad if there aren’t a load of fellow iBC straphangers on the RGLD bus with me going forward.
They are not actually a “miner” but a royalty player with pieces of a lot of different miners. Has the effect of “super miner” when the POG goes up.
Fly’s in, I believe.
GG is my favorite pure gold miner, as it’s Canuckistanian and I can keep an eye on it.
_____
Too bad we owe the rest of the world that have bought our teasuries.
– DEVILDOG
I want to say it was JP Morgan who said this, but that may not be correct:
“If a man owes me $100,000 then that’s his problem, but if he owes me $100,000,000, then that’s my problem.”
Even the money that is owed to overseas partners is, in fact, “owed to ourselves.”
__________
LOL. I missed this:
Palladium, of course, has fallen off a cliff because the world has stopped building automobiles, indefinitely, save for Vipers.
And there’s a very limited supply of adult Camaro drivers, at that.
___
Jake
Why buy gold stocks when you can simply buy the stuff the produce.
You don’t have to worry about the management and the stock is hugely correlated to the underlying commodity.
J-
One reason only, at this moment. The disparity between POG and the XAU is at historical levels.
Look at charts #5 and #6 on this page for a visual explanation.
Don’t forget to give Gary a “vote” at the bottom of the page if you like the info. He’s trying to win some shit or other.
_______
Hey Jake
Is Morgan Stanley gone this week? i bought a nibble of them last Friday amongst a few others.
jake, GG will be the first gold miner people flock to, GG getting caught up in redemptions and margin calls like other stocks..whats interesting about GG as u said its in Canuckistan, so as Canadian dollar is getting raped it should help GG increase margin as costs in C$ and revenues in US$…as well miners should benefit from lower oil and gas costs…remember ABX bought an energy company Cadence just to have a hedge on rising natural gas costs a few months ago…and now natgas has gone in the toilet…
here’s what really needs to happen:
the LTCM refugees that run that shitty new fund should be paraded out in front of the NYSE and summarily shot.
the masses would be appeased by the sacrifice, and we could get back to business.
Any chance that what happened in CHK is also happening in NOV?
Gapping&Yapping, any wisdom here?
-DT
Thanks for the followup, Jake. Reading up on Royal and GG today.
Steph – No “roundhouse kicks to the solar plexus.” You’ll never connect that way. You want more of a straight-up forward kick for that. Preferably with the knee. Krav Maga style. And always remember to kick THRU your target.
Great rant, Steph.
I like Aris’ idea of a sacrifice to the market gods — similar to throwing someone in the volcano as a sacrifice to Pele, good stuff.
Anyone else notice that , after market close friday evening, GS filed a shelf registration of indeterminate amount?
I leave comment on that to the haters.
Jake,
So the miners are the cheapest they have ever been in relationship to price of gold…..
You assume miners are undervalued but if/when gold falls in value, that too would make the miners more expensive and not such a bargain eh?
Buffett is trying to get long about 3 million shares of BNI. Last week, he sold puts exerciseable at $80 and $77 that expire in early December.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109694/000118143108056982/xslF345X03/rrd220897.xml
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109694/000118143108056694/xslF345X03/rrd220612.xml
Europe nearing a deal to guarantee interbank lending. The US would have to follow suit. Hope so.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/europe-union-reportedly-guarantee-interbank-lending/story.aspx?guid={0AE9543D-E2E7-48C4-990C-0B52CAB4EF08}&dist=hplatest
Thanks, Andy. But when I click the link, no story. Been looking for this particular news all morning. Really lousy reporting, I think, by WSJ, FT, all of the majors for not focusing on the interbank thing and sticking with it. Everybody’s taking the weekend off, it seems.
Except for Russia, who chose Sunday to test fire a new intercontinental missile. “Hey, look who the new superpower is now, fuckers.”
From Marketwatch:
“NEW YORK (MarketWatch)– European Union leaders meeting in Paris are to guarantee interbank lending by issuing government securities, according to a draft statement from the eurozone summit Sunday cited by Agence-France Presse.”
Sorry, it was a recent news link on Marketwatch. If you cut and paste the whole link (not just the blue part), it should work. I guess it’s too long, or I am a retard. Probably both.
Found it, thanks.
A good article in the NY Times this weekend about the e-commerce war between Amazon and Ebay.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/business/12giants.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp
I agree with about 95 percent of the article (unusally high for me). I think Amazon is currently winning the war and Donahoe is too optimistic about some of his changes on Ebay. However, I think both will survive the war, they already have different types of customers and imho that will continue and allow both to survive.
And Ebay is obviously going to take a hit when Meg Whitman leaves to run the Treasury.
One of those little yellow smiley faces would go here, if I believed in doing that.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The leaders of 15 European Union countries are set to announce Sunday a plan to guarantee new medium-term loans between banks, Agence-France Presse reported.
The plan, which will last for an “interim period,” will see governments underwrite loans of up to five years, AFP said, citing a draft of the statement.
Banks will be charged commercial rates for the service, although final terms are still under discussion, the report said.
The 15 leaders of the eurozone countries were meeting Sunday in Paris to discuss how to deal with the crisis gripping the world’s financial markets. Among those attending was U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who announced Wednesday a 500 billion-pound ($852 billion) rescue package for British banks.
The U.K. is reportedly readying an announcement on Monday morning about 35 billion pounds of capital injections it is making in four of its leading banks. See full story.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy was quoted in the New York Times as saying that he expected European countries to present an “ambitious and coordinated plan” that goes beyond what was announced Friday by finance ministers of the Group of Seven.
The finance ministers gathered in Washington, D.C., for the weekend to discuss a plan to backstop the financial system with injections of cash into banks. The meeting took place as the International Monetary Fund said policymakers are working hard to make sure the global financial system doesn’t fail. See full story.
Whitman and her chief lackey Bill Cobb already “retired” or “left to pursue other interests” (presumably shortly before being told to do so by the board of directors). Donahoe is her replacement. Currently Meg Whitman is travelling with McCain or Palin on the campaign trail I believe. She would make a horrible Secretary of the Treasury based on her inability to be flexible at Ebay. She had blinders on while the stock and site went down the tubes. Denial is more than just a river in Africa to her.
It could become more interesting if there is a bear market in government guarantees.
Of course, currencies and bond spreads would be the fault lines of this financial quake.
In Europe, nothing is more important than this in economic and political terms ; if this does not succeed, there will be political and economic reorganization of a vulnerable Europe. By comparison, we haven’t yet seen turmoil in the current situation.
I think Meg Whitman used to be a man.
On another note, the world is springing into action. The crisis has peaked.
Everyone from Norway, Saudi Arabia, UAE are taking steps to help the crisis. Here are the Breaking News headlines on Bloomberg:
•Brown Says Euro Region Leaders May Pursue a `Comprehensive Plan’ on Banks
•Norway Central Bank to Swap $55 Billion of Government Bonds for Mortgages
•Fisher Says Fed Will `Consider Every Option’ to Restore Order to Markets
•RBS Chief Goodwin May Resign as Bank Gets $17 Billion in Government Rescue
•Frank Says U.S. Congress Will Weigh Stimulus Plan for `Average Citizens’
•Saudi Arabia Cuts Repo Rate, Lowers Reserve Requirement to Boost Liquidity
•U.A.E. Government Guarantees Interbank Lending, Deposits to Protect Banks
•South Korea Welcomes Removal of North Korea From U.S. Terror-Sponsors List
•Obama Gains in Iowa, Florida Boost Lead in Presidential Race, Polls Show
It’s worthwhile to revisit Roubini’s article from February 2008 and see what he has to say now. Roubini not only nailed the recent outcome, but the outcome is worse than “Doctor Doom” predicted.
The Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown:
The Twelve Steps to Financial Disaster
by Nouriel Roubini
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3677.html
Our Choice (via Forbes)
Nouriel Roubini 10.09.08
http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/10/08/recession-depression-keynes-oped-cx_nr_1009roubini.html
His conclusion:
At this point, the U.S., the advanced economies (and now most likely even some emerging market economies) will experience an ugly recession and an ugly financial and banking crisis–regardless of what we do from now on. We are already now in a global recession that is getting worse by the day. What radical policy action can only do is to prevent what will now be an ugly and nasty two-year recession and financial crisis from turning into a decade-long economic depression.
Anyone have any idea what would it cost to insure the interbanking of every bank in the United States? Is that even realistic?
Despite the Bloomberg headlines this Sunday morning, world leaders and the US Govt are still way behind the eight ball on this crisis.
Phrase: “Behind the eight ball”
Meaning: A difficult position from which it is unlikely one can escape.
Origin: From the Eight Ball version of the game of billiards, which is played on a pool table. The balls are numbered and must be potted in order. The game is forfeited if a player’s cue ball hits the (black) eight ball first. A ‘behind the eight ball’ position leaves a player in imminent danger of losing.
The world economy is fucked for years. The American consumer has been responsbile for about 20% of global GDP, but we represent only about 5% of the global population. Anybody who thinks 5% of the world’s population will keep consuming at rates anywhere near to those of the past five years after seeing their stock portfolios cut in half in a year and losing 20% of the value of their home is a delusional retard.
But leaders are finally taking bold steps to attempt to stop the dominos from falling. We may escape a complete financial collapse.
There is a silver lining in the record foreclosures.
Joe Public lives in California in a home that was worth $600k at the peak but is now no more than $350k. Joe has a $500k mortgage. Mortgage tax and Insurance are roughly $3600 a month. Joe bought his home with one of those teaser rates where he was paying a total of $2600 a month. He cannot afford $3600 a month so he walks away. Joe still needs a place to live. So he rents a similar home for $2000 a month (very realistic for places like CA FL AZ NV where rent to price ratios were out of whack) So Joe can afford $2600 a month but is only paying $2000. That leaves him with $600 disposable income to use however he pleases.
The example above is fairly common across the US. People who lose their homes in foreclosure are still going to need places to live. And rents are a lot lower for similar homes than the mortgage payments. So you figure a lot of families across the nation will end up with higher levels of disposable income.
Nice job CAP. There will be winners, losers, and whiners. I’m wondering what the unintended consequences of the recent changes to the personal bankruptcy laws will be. Since bankruptcy is the ultimate relief valve for the consumer, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s changed again.
Hey Jake
Is Morgan Stanley gone this week? i bought a nibble of them last Friday amongst a few others.
I would say “no,” if this interbank lending guarantee comes through. I think the only thing delaying their financing is uncertainty.
GS is probably a buy Monday, too, fwiw.
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Jake,
So the miners are the cheapest they have ever been in relationship to price of gold…..
You assume miners are undervalued but if/when gold falls in value, that too would make the miners more expensive and not such a bargain eh?
Mathematically true, of course. But the question came from my original statement where I told people to buy miners instead of GLD.
POG can go down here, but with all this new liquidity, it would have to be a PPT arranged move, and therefore, likely not long lived.
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The example above is fairly common across the US. People who lose their homes in foreclosure are still going to need places to live. And rents are a lot lower for similar homes than the mortgage payments. So you figure a lot of families across the nation will end up with higher levels of disposable income.
Let’s hope Joey Bag o’ Mortgage Default’s “extra pocket change” makes up for the hundreds (thousands?) of banks his irresponsibility is going to submarine.
My thought is the tradeoff ain’t gonna be worth it.
See the famous “Broken Window (Economic) Fallacy” for further review.
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jake – its not the best booze, but its fine considering it was a gift. i will try the stuff you rec’d. i like bushmills too. i drink so little that i dont know the difference between most varieties.
Bushmills is some kind of blended scotch isn’t it? Yerch.
If you’re gonna go brown, go bourbon.
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I hope all of you went to church this morning, btw.
It was a practical imperative this week, I think.
In any case, I don’t often find stuff there I can share with you heathens, but today I did. It’s from Philippians 4:8, and is actually very applicable to we market mavens, especially in these upcoming days.
Consider, meditate, pray (if you do that) and enjoy:
Finally, brothers, whatever is true, whatever is honorable, whatever is fair, whatever is pure, whatever is acceptable, whatever is commendable, if there is anything of excellence and if there is anything praiseworthy-keep thinking about these things.
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DTCC Claims Lehman Credit Default Swap Worries Overblown, Net Payments Only $6 Billion
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/NakedCapitalism/~3/N9euflO7kOE/dtcc-claims-lehman-credit-default-swap.html
joe publick’s 600K house is now 350K. how many here can afford a 350K house? it is still a shitload of money. 2K for rent? Sorry can’t afford that either.