Thus far, my day has been filled with utter anxiety, mixed with panic and greed. I am hitting on all emotions here, as I try to figure out a way out of this calamity.
The game plan is simple:
DO NOT GET SHAKEN OUT. I am not leveraged and have been deploying new monies into equities. As a matter of fact, I have been raising new money (something I hate doing), in order to buy this terrorist market.
I understand the risks at hand. Hell, we can close at the lows today and get gorilla stomped on Tuesday. However, I have firm belief in buying when the streets are flowing with blood.
My buy list includes: [[UYG]] , General Electric Company [[GE]] , Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] , Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] and [[TBT]] .
In my opinion, the safest play is TBT. Eventually, yields have to go higher. If equities rebound, people with sell treasuries to buy stocks. On the other hand, if foreign banks take their money out of treasuries, yields will soar, sending TBT through the fucking roof. A win-win, if you will.
The risks to the market lie with Morgan Stanley [[MS]] , Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , General Motors Corporation [[GM]] , Ford Motor Company [[F]] and the bizarre action in select energy stocks, like Chesapeake Energy Corporation [[CHK]] .
In short, my time horizon is longer term than most and I am willing to endure a painful downslope. If you are risk adverse, go take a walk in the park and feed the birds.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Markets are open monday
From Drudge:
Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi said political leaders discussing idea of closing world’s financial markets while they ‘rewrite the rules of international finance’
Can that happen?!? close all the markets?!
I am already seeing selling of treasuries. It’s the last bubble to pop.
Oh, I love risk. My problem is i dont love egregious losses and fucktarded ball roastings.
It would make sense (to these fuckers) to close on Monday since it is already a banking holiday.
How about you promise not to swear until CHK is trading at 2x earnings. HAHAHA
Close the market forever or until the depression is over. I have plenty of cash buried in the backyard.
See if I care.
Is it okay if I wrist-rocket the squirrels?
________
Fly,
Thanks for posting thru the shit storm. Remember, if this whole “stock market thing” and “America thing” don’t pan out, you’ve still got the “gang thing” to fall back on. An ever more viable option. Don’t let your heart explode.
Seriously the market needs to shut down. This is madness. Its a stampede. people are getting killed. its not fun and games any more. If 99% of this country goes broke, even if you are that 1% who made money in this market it won’t do you any good. Mobs will descend upon you and club you to death.
Whats your plan Fly ? You’re up big this year. You should be scared. your neighbor Steve might come over and blast a hole in you with a double barreled shotgun.
When the markets stress me out, I have sex.
I’m tired of sex.
We need a time out…like a bank holiday or maybe we can postpone the election or how about another terrorist attack to unite us?
I agree Anton. I love this place.
Close the market forever or until the depression is over. I have plenty of cash buried in the backyard.
That plan works right until Joey-Bag-of-Mafia-Capos comes ovah foah a “neighbahlly visit” whilst you’re out back, spade in hand, Glock in the upstaihs bedroom.
_____________
I understand the risks at hand. Hell, we can close at the lows today and get gorilla stomped on Tuesday.
Why not Monday?
No doubt about it … blood is running in the streets
Denninger on the end of the world as we know it … fucker may be right
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/604-POTENTIAL-ECONOMIC-SEIZURE-DEAD-AHEAD.html
Eye,
Try it with a partner.
Whole new experience for you.
Fly, Can I do some yard work for you?lol
Yeah, time out. We need to close the markets and everyone meet in Central Park. We can kill each other. Winners take the remaining net worth of the losers. That way, winners walk away whole again.
Anton – so stressed that I wore out all potential partners. Blew through every hooker on the east coast. Tried a solo, but pecker was too margin raped to get a rise.
yo whatup, if you raising new money i want in, whats your minimum?
trader D
Eye,
Let me give you the numbers of Mrs. Fuld, Mrs. Yang and Mrs. Mozilo, for starters. Turns out their husbands were busy screwing shareholders, employees and just about anybody else and never got around to “taking care of business” at home. You will find an eager new stress outlet. In fact, many offer multiple outlets.
ROFLMAO Anton – KARMA +100 .
I needed a good laugh today.
BTW, Eye, if you’re blowing through hookers, you’re doing it wrong.
Treasuries closed Monday for Columbus Day holiday, Stock Market open…
so stock rally end of today will create a sell off in treasuries to move to stocks and increase TBT, while a continued drop will keep it in treasuries and make TBT a boring trade Monday?
Hell ya! Man up and buy. I’m all in too. Not going to be shaken out.
The nice thing is, if I take say, a 5% loss today, that’s nowhere near the amount of money I woulda lost(read: did lose)a week ago on a 5% down move.
Intro from a story on RealMoney, where I no longer subscribe:
Volatility Sends Contrarian Bulls to “Spread” the Optimism
By REBECCA DARST
About this article:
On Thursday, I noted evidence of well-capitalized option traders staking bullish claims on JPMorgan , despite a blistering selloff in stocks that took most major financial issues leagues lower. Today’s moderated downside for major bank stocks in an ultra-volatile trading session has emboldened even more option traders to vote confidently on stabilization for major bank shares. This morning, I observed bullish bets staked in the Proshares Ultra Financials Fund , a closed-end fund indexed to double the daily performance of Dow financials. Shares in the ETF are down 4.7% at $8 as I submit this report (…but would hasten to add that reversals and redoublings of volume in today’s market are occurring at the drop of the proverbial fedora – expect this print to vary wildly). Block trades involving a total of 25,000 lots traded in the bullish October 10/14 spread combination, a position that carries with it…
The $1T (or is it $10T, since single-digit trillion-dollar swings seem to be de rigeur these days) question is what’ll the stock markets do without guidance from the bond markets this afternoon and on Monday?
Additional confounding variable is how much forced/margin selling we’ll later today.
Final set of confounding variables is what sort of fuckery the G7 goons can come up with over the weekend?
I can’t even hazard a guess. I can barely figure out what the unknowns are anymore, let alone hazard a guess. Fuck.
it’s like a corollary to the law of diminishing returns…”the law of decreasing losses”, I call it.
Todd Harrison
12:35:03 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Lucidity NOW!
These are trying times indeed and through the lens of “this too shall pass,” I offer the following guidelines for ye faithful:
* This is precisely what capitulation feels like, it’s the diaper effect, also known as “get me out at any price.” Price discovery is a process not a point, we know, so keep that in mind as we edge ahead.
* Only trade with what you can afford to lose. That comfort margin is distinct for each Minyan and therein lies the “know thyself” rule.
* Sync your time horizon and risk profile. That will ensure you’re in a position to cash your chips when the time is right.
* See all sides. While I’m of the view that there will be better prices with which to make sales, allow for the possibility that there won’t be when you’re making your financial decisions. You should never be one trade away from the poor house.
* Never Forget! If and when the MOAS (mother of all Snappers) arrives, remember how you feel right now as you shape and craft your future risk profile.
This is what we’ve trained for, Minyans. The last six years of Minyanville have preached the importance of risk management over reward chasing, capital preservation (a fluid discussion), debt reduction, financial intelligence and, perhaps most importantly, emotion is the enemy when trading.
To be sure–and most unfortunately–not everyone will make it to the other side of the beach head. It’s our sincere hope that Minyans, through the lens of proactive preparation, are in a better position than most. Take a deep breath and be a part of the solution rather than part of the percolating problem. We will get there, and we’ll get there together.
Anton
You mean I’m supposed to let the hookers blow me? Damn, I knew something was wrong. Just like I should have been selling instead of buying.
very stressed. been there, done that:
Mrs. Fuld – moans about inability to securitize real estate.
Mrs. Yang – had trouble handling my ying.
Mrs. Mozil – her clit was even tanned.
How we close today will be telling….do we have the “all clear” to risk more…..?
The AAPL looks ripe for picking and BAC looks to be a survivor….especially if they get a “do over” and “never mind” with Merrill
Bye bye CELG. Let the cascade begin in earnest.
I know where Fly has the cash buried. It’s behind the deck on the left side next to all of the buried Monster cans.
Even pappa bear, Fleck, is getting his ass handed to him with that gold trade.
Did anybody else notice the terrified look on Joe Terranova’s face last night on fast money?
He must have been long leveraged.
Maybe they carried him out today.
Down 1000 points today. Bet on it.
I hate to say this but unless we get some kind of support rally a 50% downturn would be the best we could ask for. I would not bet on it but a 67% downturn is possible. The problem is Cramer, CNBC, and all the people that think they can tell the future of the market are calling a bottom. Until these sad fuckers shut the fuck up. Mother Market will not make a bottom. Oh well this is a free country for now.
Lurker,
We use the confusion today when the Blue Angels start practicing to make our first hit on the best-supplied grocers in Little Italy. Show me the gabbah-gool, motherfuckers! Then we hit the better wine and liquor merchants. Once supplied with staples, we head up to Van Ness and hit the Bentley and Mercedes dealerships and procure our fleet.
We should be done by 5pm. Happy hour at the bar at the Four Seasons, where I got the piano player to add some Radiohead to his play list.
‘Cause that’s how we roll.
Look people. I say this OVER AND OVER again. Big money will stand the sidelines until all cash payouts on the Lehman CDS settlement happen. All cash payouts. AND, until it is clear that NO BIG DICK international banking or insurance company will have to declare bankruptcy as a result of the Lehman CDS cash settlement. That cash settlement will not happen until the week of Oct 21. We’ve got another week of ugliness ahead.
Thank the Republicans and Chris Cox for their hands off approach to the CDS mkt. Now that we MOST need information to understand what is happening with this clearing .. we know nothing. NO ONE HAS THAT INFO. So, we wait until the payments are made and see who is left standing.
Chill until Oct 21st.
Charting the Weekly $SPX vs $VIX is the most incredible thing I have seen.
The market closed hard on the lows, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. I think it will happen again, with the possibility of larger fireworks.
I will buy SSO, if I see this market completely collapse at the close. I’m talking down 700-1000 pts … fucking plunger style!
Patience!
Ladies and Gentlemen, we are now at 35.1% below the 200 day moving Average on the SPX!
We are in unchartered waters (low of the day was 36.1% below, btw)!
_
We are back to the days where the only indicator that will signal a buy is the body count of wall street monkeys diving to their death….
Hey Jake did you get in on CELG???
It’s me again. Lube up!
Surreal that AAPL and ARO are still up in this tape. We can’t have a bottom with that kind of shit going on.
“I will buy SSO, if I see this market completely collapse at the close. I’m talking down 700-1000 pts … fucking plunger style!”
DONNY – Fuck U . 700-1000 POINTS down is not plunger style. WE’VE BEEN dropping by that amount every FUCKING day the last week. PLUNGER STYLE in my books is like 3000-4000 points down.
Can CNBC play enough panic over and over? These people are nothing but negative over and over.
Jake–
What does Senore Fibonacci say?
Is my butt supposed to hurt like this?
CENTRAL BANK OF JAMAICA SAYS EVERYONE SHOULD JUST CHILL OUT.
Barney Frank should be the one to step up and lead us peons.
Note to self: If Frank is the leader need to contact Sniper6.
CAP … We’re not going to see 3k to 4k down at these levels. The breakers won’t allow that. In fact the breakers will kick in at about DOW 7,200.
Go Tea Bag a Mule.
Damn straight, Anton. They were even nice enough to clear out all the parking spaces this morning!
Dow tickling the sphincter of 8000. Well, I guess that’s our answer to when the margin selling kicks in. Everything from guns to butter (defense and agriculture) is getting cornholed.
As for the elusive rally monkeys, they’ve been sighted:
http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b305/theonlymouth/monkeymonkey.jpg
Looks like they’re about to get dumped with everything else.
CAP – They would halt at 1100 for circuit 3.
I would like to see heavy buying into the close to almost neutral on the day. That coupled with more cuts overseas over the weekend would get us moving the right direction. Then cut the discount window Monday 25 bips. Follow Tuesday evening with another 25 bips here. Follow Wednesday evening with another 25 bips on the window. I would like to see that play out.
Get some straddles and take a walk. Nothing to see here.
Off to the gym, before it gets foreclosed on.
Don’t say I didn’t warn you about all of this.
SKF – WEEEEEEEE
down 550 and we have not even hit the afternoon selloff….
Gonna be an epic close….
Cleaning the guns and getting out the boards for the windows….
DONNY – Fuck the circuit breakers. They will shut it down, reopen it and shit will continue falling.
There is only ONE way to stop this carnage. SHUT down the markets now. Just shut the fucking thing down. Nobody is going to buy this shit. The leverage out there is TOO FUCKING BIG. People are being liquidated all around. Those Russkie Billionaires had forced margin calls. Everyone is leveraged to the hilt. The whole stock market was built on leverage. Its a house of cards and its all coming down.
The governments of the world are going to have to step in and GUARANTY EVERYTHING. Guaranty EVERY FUCKING FINANCIAL CONTRACT out there. Everything. Thats the only way we get some sort of respite and floor on this market. Until then the floor is at 0.
Market is only down 20% this week. Not too bad yet. Could be worse (for example, next week).
I just threw up a little, and feel like i might pass out. Are we there yet.
Anybody remember that Raptor dude? He was bearish as all get out last October. If he stuck to his thesis he must be the richest dude in the world by now.
I buy 2000 shs MS @ 8.12…if you buy you this stock you will be forced to do business with your broker in a Sears outlet store.
CAP:
I love your attitude. You are long, yet you have a hardon for a market calamity.
YOu must have been a kamikaze in your last life.
The best thing about today is that the market is closed tomorrow.
Minus MS/GS, financials holding their own……..
Eye,
Lol. Funny because it’s true.
Dean Witter (RIP) used to be the broker in the Sears Outlet Center.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8MDNFaGfT4
slow death…
Guys look at EVM if you’re in CA (or not). Right now it has a 10% yield (20% effective in a high tax bracket), it has been beaten down to hell. Things are either gonna break or not, but I don’t think the gov will let all the little old ladies with their pensions in munis die a horrible death. They will sacrifice the $ first and then raise rates to reel it in.
Fly – I sold everything today on the bounce. Went into SPY puts. I am still panicked cos my large SLV position has drilled a hole in my ass. This is the scariest shit I have ever seen. I’m only 30 but fuck this is crazy. My goodness I’m glad I don’t live or work in a high rise. I would jumped the last few days. I’m surprised no one has jumped yet.
But stock market aside I am getting great real estate deals. I think after we bounce I may sell everything and go all in into real estate. I am buying houses that are giving me 30-40% returns purely on the cash flow. Thats fucking insane. If I put everything I have into real estate I will be retired just off the cash flow and sipping Blue Label in Bora Bora.
If we rally really hard into the close, what does that mean?
Why is everybody talking about Monday/Tuesday. Can’t it happen today?
Did you not see the picture posted above…. they are taking the rally monkeys out by the wheelbarrel. There will be no rally. I think eye has the right idea. What big money is going to get in the pool here??? If you were in their position would you?
Why is SRS +7 when SPG, GGP, PLD, VNO, EQR all green???
Would somebody change that ETrade baby’s diaper?
I love the smell of Napalm in the afternoon!
CDS on the “Sun will explode” trade are bid strong.
TC-
message received, will comply. Over.
s6
FLY- still loading up on NOV
30 mins till shit hits the fan….
And the LEH CDS ends at 8.625%. Market appears to have priced that in already.
cramer is on…. market gonna fall now… let me guess jim, the bottom is in???
Is the Government putting cheese into BAC, JPM, C, MER as we speak?
todays chart looks a lot like yesterdays in a fractal way. down the shitter at 3ish comin
The market needs to take some Xanax and chill.
Strong buyer of the SSO when this thing turns after Monday. Who’s with me?
Jake–
What does Senore Fibonacci say?
He says “100% retrace is at 770.50 on the S&P, and you are through the 78.6% retrace nicely, so buh bye for now.”
_____________
You actually think FiboNAZI rules apply to this kinda market now?
Why do companies buy their own stock at highs …. isn’t this the right time to step up to the plate and do a buyback at the lows?
Oh yeah, they’ll make those announcements soon but will they follow through with the purchases ala 87′?
Cooler heads prevail….a trait companies are not known for….