Everyone I know is bearish on oil. They exclaim: “No way is this price gonna stick, fughetiboutit.” As they are saying that, covertly, I add to my bountiful oil positions.
All of the talking heads on CNBC have declared a bottom in the market and a top in oil, about 10,000 times this year. Once upon a time, “The Fly” attempted to “time the top” in crude, and most recently corn, neither worked out in my favour [sic].
The sooner you come to grips with the stark reality of not knowing what the fuck you are talking about, the sooner you will start banking coin.
This is true.
Oil is going to rip the heads off those betting against it, then shit down their necks.
In other news, I like [[FXP]] and [[SRS]] here. I must sound like a fucking broken car alarm. Quite honestly, as opposed to not-so-quite of a lie, I am sick of talking about my positions. Just know, I am on some sort of auto-pilot money making bonanza right now.
One big development, I have decided to sell out my entire [[AAPL]] position. I’ve been long the stock, since $50; but it’s time to move on.
If there is one thing, above all, “The Fly” wants to see a short squeeze, of mammoth proportions, in the shares of [[FTK]]. Come on losers. The stock is cheap and the amount of shares sold short is absurd.
Off to Dunkin’ Donuts, disguise (fake mustache) and all.
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Unless your aim is poor, you should seek to go down their throats.
I’m expecting a bounce on the financials fairly soon (this week)…on a huge short squeeze like WAMU today.
Also, I might throw in a hail mary and buy calls on Lehman expecting a huge short covering coming…trade is way too crowded. I can see it when they announce earnings on Monday.
Note: FXP is unbelievable…the Shanghai index down 8%, and we’re down only 3%. WTF?
big mike, FXP was up huge on Friday and Monday so a lot of it was already baked in. last thursday, it closed around $69 and now trades at 79. that gain is 14%, almost 2x the 7.8% decline in shanghai yesterday.
It’s interesting that you sold your AAPL.
I must sound like a fucking broken car alarm.
Growing up in Crooklyn, I’m going to bet this was a significant pillar of your childhood. I figure I’m a little more than a half decade older than you, and when I first got out of college, at 21, I moved to the newly gentrifying Prospect Park neighborhood, where the seminal chorus was that of the late night car alarm orchestra.
Literally. All. Night. Fucking. Long.
I bore it for a year and finally rationalized the move to Ma-hatt-ah on sanity grounds, despite that increased expense.
You were probably… 13. Trapped, poor guy.
fly-
agree 10,000 times on SRS….smartest thing i have done this year was load up @ 83
very surprised on your APPL decision – i am by no means a fanboy, nor am i long, but as a very long term hold (years), APPL seems golden. the street has it completely wrong – the subsidized iPhone price will change the iPhone from the elite geek gadget into the pervasive RAZR they-are-everywhere staple.
Fly, I don’t disagree with your thought process to sell AAPL here if you held for that long. Might be range bound until July when the iPhone 3G hits stores. Will make another run towards 200 when CNBC shows lines waiting outside the Apple store. Still holding SRS as well.
Only retards bet against fertilizer.
Somewhere in the neighborhood of 65 million LEH shares need to be shorted for the convert buyers to get hedged. That’s going to take a couple of days. The stock won’t lift until they’re done.
The calls will probably get a bit cheaper before they’re hedged up.
closed out that mos trade at a significant loss. remind oneself no to average up when the fuckface moves ten percent in one day.
i bet against urbn at 31.14
I rebought FXP at 79.20 after closing yesterday thanks to FLY’s post an hour ago..FXP is at 80.20 wow!
I think Jobs is sick. Good sell.
At $27.37 LEH is sitting pretty much right on it’s 23.6% fib line from that initial St. Paddy’s Day downplunge to the low of $20.17.
Still holding my short, but it may consolidate here. If I don’t see penetration, I may beg off for a bit.
_
Scabby — does he have the Herpes?
___
I recall reading somewhere that Jobs had a bout with cancer.
TC and Jake, it was something to do with his pancreas I believe. He was one of the lucky ones whose cancer could actually be operated on and have a chance of living, and he did survive. He looks thin but I thought he ate a purely macrobiotic or organic diet which would tend to make him very thin. Who knows? He’s not going to give any details, he didn’t say anything until after the operation the previous time.
Adding, Valleywag says its a radical vegan diet which would explain the weight loss.
Paper napkin numbers: Analysts are guessing that AAPL gets between $7-$18/mo (Gene Munster at Piper @ high end on $18) in subscriber rev. with roughly 5mil, activations through ATT network, accounting for roughly 20% unlocked of total 6mil sold.
(7×12) x 5mil = 420M
(18×12) x 5mil= 1.08B.
So basically the new iPhone 3G would need to sell enough units to compensate between $420M to $1.08B in lost revenues per year.
Holy crap, Boca, he survived pancreatic cancer??
From what I heard, there is no survival rate!
“Oil is going to rip the heads off those betting against it, then shit down their necks.”
Should oil also urinate on their dead bodies too?
Jake or any other New Yorkers (ex or otherwise)- My daughter starts her Masters at NYU in the Fall and says she may be living in Crooklyn. Is it close to NYU and is it safe?
i thought about playing the bounce trade on WM this morning, but i chickened out.
figures.
as an aside: fuck POT.
caddy, brooklyn is fine; all the hipsters are there now. it’s a subway ride to NYU.
Thanks for info.
Jake, I was surprised too. But apparently there are two kinds of pancreatic cancer, one which has almost no survival rate, and an even rarer type that can be operated on and there is a chance of survival. He had the second rarer type. Unfortunately my husband’s first wife passed away from pancreatic cancer, so I know a little bit about it.
http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf
BTW, after the original bout with cancer, I find it hard to imagine he’s not grooming a close circle of like-minded successors, just in case.
I covered my small BOOM short sub 37.5
CLR getting gang-banged.
Boca – sorry for your husband’s loss, but I bet he’s glad he found you! BOOMER
Thanks Boomer, that was very nice of you to say.
Little Tits:
AAPL 3G iPhone a game changer. Companies will be subsidizing part of the cost of the device, including T. Increased sales volume, as a result, will significantly impact Q3/Q4.
It will be available in 22 countries on July 7, and throughout the year, that number will increase to about 70.
(Side note: Steve Jobs is a dick.)
Boca,
i second what boomer said. i lost my wife to breast cancer 12yrs ago.
Someone on my team has to deal with the iTunes staff daily. Arrogant! I have to hand it to them. They crush the competition.
I BOT 2k BOOM at 37.48. Good luck to me.
Wait for the doji day then get short (again)
Chivas – man, sorry for your loss.
Not to make this a cancer thread, but I had to have a mammogram last week. Scared the shizz out of me. The nurses were so nice to me. They could see the “holy shizz” in my face. All is well, thankfully. But I have a new dose of compassion for the sick. And double dose for those without health care.
TC — Crooklyn is almost completely gentrified now, even Fly’s old neigh-bah-hood.
Brooklyn Heights and Park Slope — the two “affordable” bedroom communities of the early nineties (when I got out of college) are now vying in the chi-chi department with the hippest NYC enclaves. That said, she might be happier closer to the Village, where NYU is located and where all the (college) parties are. Not sure if you’ll save much putting her in Crooklyn, is all.
I BOT 2k BOOM at 37.48. Good luck to me.
“The First Step is admitting you have a problem.”
Boomer,
thanks. really glad to know that your mammogram came out ok. agree with your sentiments.
Under the radar BOOM news yesterday:
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/06/09/afx5093829.html
The Packinox design consists of large explosion-formed metal plates, welded into a plate pack that is then inserted into an even larger pressure vessel. This unique configuration combines the exceptional thermal and hydraulic efficiency of modern plate heat exchanger technology with the traditional advantages of shell-and-tube units under high temperatures and high pressures.
I will be leveraging a windfall profits tax on Fly’s fund shortly. Work hard around here and your faggot worthless ass will be punished cock suckers. How dare you work hard.
I’m sorry Chivas, I know it was a tough road.
OK, let’s talk about corn or oil or even AAPL – I agree with Alphadawg that the new 3G iphone will bring it to the masses the same way Nintendo brought Wii to the older generation with the Wii Fit.
I had the new LG Erickson with the touch screen and internet connection but just sold it, I didn’t care for it. I’ll bet the new iphone will be easier to use and I’m thinking about getting one.
Gapping, you always make me laugh, thanks dude.
Re: AAPL
The iPhone will cannibalize iPods. Why buy a touch? If you can buy it @ 199 without activating a wireless acct, why buy an iPod?
The “Why Buy An iPod” question already exists even if there was no iPhone. Everyone’s happy with what they already have with their iPod.
Boca: As funny as it is these fucks are trying it. They will soon tell companies how much they can charge you. Just wait.
$199 decent price. For $299 you can get the 16 gig version with 5 hrs talk time and 300 hrs standby time.
T will be charging 10 bucks more per month which won’t include the text messaging. Sorry kids.