A Very Hilarious Day in the Stock Market Cemetery

I would’ve hoped for more, but at the end of the day we get what we deserve and we do not complain. I etched out a gain of +59bps, capping off the week higher by 1.5%. My opinion of the market is as follows: carefully bullish with a focus on defensive stocks but also open to the idea of it broadening out. The impetus to be long consumer staples now stems from the palpable fear of a renewed leg lower in equities. Instead of selling short, owning stocks that weakly correlate to the overall market is the next best thing.

I really do not like these tapes, slow and methodic, summertime molasses spilling off the side of a picnic table mid afternoon. I’d like to be able to move quickly and talk with my mouth filled, yelling at Mrs. Fly to “kneel down before my greatness”, laughing riotously throughout House Fly with an air of recalcitrant haute.

We all have choices to make. Some of you choose to sell short in the face of never ending rallies or to buy underperforming stocks in the hopes that luck will prove you correct. Others pretend that luck is skill, playing in the moronic sandbox of earnings season. On a long enough timeline, all truth and lies are revealed.

Sure, you can make money in a run away bull market; but how will you do when the fires are burning bright and the landscape is strewn with the lifeless bodies of former market participants, sacrificed on the altar of ignorance by way of over confidence in skills they never truly quite possessed.

The sense of invincibility, the ephemeral high of nailing trades and then thinking the reason for it was because you were handcrafted by God to be special is about the time you should chill out and go eat a sandwich. I’m not even going to talk about this morning’s 10% jump in $GME and subsequent collapse, but instead talking in my generalities and coded verbiage.

As for me, I came out of the gates very strong +85bps and then gave back 20bps in a trade gone wrong and now sit imperiously +68bps with 62% in cash. My positions are all defensive because I noticed a bust down in risk and a bust up in secular natured stocks. This is really high level finance trading that most of you won’t understand, so I won’t bother explaining it. It’s akin to me talking to my neighbors about private equity acquisitions based off an EBITDA valuation “that is just crazy” knowing he or she has no idea what I am talking about, sort of gazing through me with NPC eyes.

At any rate, I didn’t come here to only condescend but also remind you that today is Friday and the weather is beautiful and the market will soon begin to trade by appointment in the summer climes. Expect the action to be dispassionate and annoying, false drops and pops along the way. The most important thing you can do now is avoid being tricked by way of letting your emotions dictate your actions. If you are long term, fine. Turn off the screen and fuck off. If you are day trading, keep those eyes glued to your monitors and wait for a pivot to snag a 30bps trade in an leveraged ETF and then feel good about that, and then maybe drink a cup of coffee as a reward.

I etched out a rather mundane and constant win of +77bps today, with very little variance in my win/loss range. I am mostly allocated into gentleman in a pastoral setting type of stocks, men of industry of extreme means and measures.

I must admit to missing out on the $GME run, having sold it this morning due to it being beneath my station. In my chat room, Stocklabs, all of the plebs tripped over themselves to buy it into the afternoon, hoping to spice up their pathetic lives with some verve. I simply looked at these fools without an emotion coursing through my body thinking “what fools they are. They do not know what they do.”

I am certain a GIGANTIC dilutive secondary will fold them all like cheap tents in a wind storm, racking them with losses that will last a generation. Their premise behind the idea was to “buy into the dream”, akin to smoking opium in a Chinese whorehouse thinking about starting a Fortune 500 company.

Some people might feel a sense of FOMO when gazing into a stock soaring higher without you, especially since I was so into it just a short while ago. But you have to understand the level of professionalism that I operate on and could never lower myself to cheaply adorned denizen both gauche and depraved in a room decorated with yellow wood, zebra rugs, and leopard blankets.

At any rate, I sense that I am back and because of this, fuck you.

Good day.

Take a look at this chart and analyze my charting skills.

See, this is what I am talking about. I am a multi dimensional threat. I can write, post racist memes on X, trade, read an 8k, and even build world class data analytics platforms for traders.  What can you do? Maybe you leave witty comments, but nobody gives a fuck.

Back to markets and I hate to remind you of this, but Joe Biden is presiding over a market about to bust loose to the upside. Once the annoyance of earnings season is behind us, we’re gonna have a hot summer. I know that’s antithetical to your core beliefs, since you’re all miserable self hating bears. Liven up and get out their old sport and get yourselves some fucking stocks.

In all seriousness, I am 100% long and need a win, or two, or three. I am more or less willing the market higher with my mind now. The stocks are going up based upon my core values, since I am the main character in the simulation. This level of narcissism is in fact rare, especially when accompanied with self awareness, which makes it even more profound and dare I say incredulous.

Into the close, I’d like a melt up. As a matter of fact, I demand one.

Markets are up but it’s sort of a weird bullish tape, with outsized movers in commodity related stocks. Many of the tech stocks, like the semis, are weak with losses in $ARM $IBM $SMCI amongst others. In between some of these earnings blowups, the tape isn’t accommodative to buy and holders who just want to make some money without having to worry or doing anything.

What I mean by that is, $SHOP collapsed on their earnings but one of their companies $KVYO surged ahead on theirs. Trying to make sense of this will drive you insane and the making macro sense of these things is a fool’s errand. We are largely driven by liquidity and Americans have over $130 trillion in savings, swashbuckling in the markets creating tidal waves in its stead. The idea that this spigot is going to be turned off and as a result cause markets to crash is ridiculous.

Often times I am maligned by people in the comments because they’re bearish and they’ll get mad when I am bullish. For the millionth time, there has never been a day when I woke up and thought “Gee, I hope this market keeps going higher. America deserves it.” Since I was a young boy I wanted the market to crash and will keep these wishes deeply embedded into my heart and soul until the day I die. No one is more bearish than me, but we have to face hard facts and the one indelible hard fact is: markets are rigged to trade higher.

I am using training wheels for my trading account today, up just 41bps because I am in lower beta conservative stock. I need to find a groove before heading out there into the rough waters in search of tuna. Let me snap up some smaller fish first, build my confidence up, and then I’ll increase my alpha.

And for those of you who have a hard time dealing with anything that I say: SHUT THE FUCK UP. I don’t care what you think, but do appreciate your patronage and would very much like if you kept reading. Perhaps tell your friends and families to read too, but with a caveat that they should SHUT UP if they have anything negative to say at all. I’d much rather prefer if you only say positive things to me, as I like to read those things much more than the opposite.

I’d Rather Die Than Trade Bad

Another session and another closed at my session lows, down 57bps. This is getting sort of ridiculous, as I grasp in desperation for anything to rescue me for whatever fucking stupidity I am trapped in. I see no matrix, no lines of code. This must be how you people feel all of the time and it’s horrible. If markets were like this all the time I’d never trade. I’d rather die a horrible death than come to work and have to endure this. Seriously, death would be a reward over drawing down 57bps in a flat and slow tape.

My last loss was in a fucking African stock, lost $2k in 30mins in $JMIA. My bags were literally stolen by African savages into the bell, looted.

I even bought $GME back, only to see it immediately trade lower. It’s almost as if a dark fucking cloud filled with nothing but lightening bolts is following me around and whenever I make a move, it strikes down at me. I’ve been hit with so many bolts the past week, I feel like my fucking brains are cooked.

I finished another day fully long and eagerly await another GAP LOWER in the morning. I had driven my losses from down 55bps at the open to green and then watched it slowly drip lower, 5bps here, 10bps there, into a down 20bps close to cap off my day.

It really is the worst. It’s hard for me to express my feelings, other than to compare me losing like this to let’s say Babe Ruth going to bat and striking out 30 times in a row without a single homer. I am not accustomed to mediocrity and always took pride in the fact that I was exceptional when it came to this. I could fuck up any number of things but if you placed me in front of a trading turret I’d crush. And now even that is gone.

I swear to fucking everything holy, things better change around here soon.

In the context of the greater move that was just made off the lows, this is normal pin action. We now have indecision in the tape, as people figure out how to navigate between being permanently bullish and dodging earnings minefields.

I dubbed the term “fag box” more than a decade ago to eloquently describe being trapped in a trading range without purpose. We are just sort of drifting out into space wondering how this all plays out. I will tell you exactly how it plays out, with markets shooting the fuck higher. But before we get there, we might have some brief sojourns lower and estimable scares along the way.

Bear in mind, America still has currency reserve status and whilst we have it, it is impossible to dislodge markets for any extended periods of time.

That said, we are trading here and this isn’t a blog about macro events or long term holds. In the immediate term, I suspect we drift up. The tape is very boring and in my experience when shorting boring tapes, bears are typically enlivened by the scent of their flesh being scorched alive.

I don’t want to reverse my bullish position, but there are some pressing issues in this tape. For example: the earnings suck. We have misses from $UBER, $SHOP, yesterday $DIS, a week or so ago $META in addition to absolute fucking train wrecks in $TRIP, $DV, $ZI, and $GO just to name a few.

Luckily I wasn’t stupid enough to hold a lot of high beta stocks, only minutely stupid enough to lose 28bps at the open. I had to ditch a few things, but got attracted to the strength in both $META and $NFLX. And now after being them, I feel like I am being set up for a trap, a grande fucking piano collapse onto my head.

We have no discernible areas of strength, other than periphery defensiveness in secular and/or low beta stocks. When I say ‘low beta’, I mean stocks that do not correlate 1:1 with the $SPY. These are your defensive names like $PEP, $KO and $KR. On the higher beta side, we have absolutely bloodshed, down 1.47%.

In other words, if you went out there today with a loaded up portfolio of risk, you’re getting your fucking brains blown out this morning and hoping to God for respite.

But no one is coming to save you.

Due to my obstinance, I managed a +25bps gain into a 43bps loss. Some might argue that to do that is stupid. However, I am firmly of the belief that I want to believe something good might arise from this tape, and soon.

Case in point, about midday I stepped into a 6% position in $GME, a seemingly idiotic company filled with retarded shareholders. But because I saw the movie and thought it funny, playing with the morons in a market foray, I held the stock into tomorrow. The notable thing about that is I SQUANDERED an easy 3.5% win and watched it slink away into the hands of greasy dysgenic gamers, closing out the session with a loss of 1.8% in the stock. In my head, I think it’s funny to hold it because “DIAMOND HANDS BRO” and all of the indecorous nonsense that accompanies holding onto a meme stock in a series manner. Nevertheless, here I am beholden to some of you fuckers to get it into your low IQ brains to borrow some more money against your obligations to increase your holdings, so that I might exit with a profit.

All that aside, delving into more serious matter, I am bullish into tomorrow, mostly because of rates and the prevailing trends, which of course is helped by my recency bias.

For May, the month of my birth, I have losses of 2% and this cannot and will not stand. I promise you this, I will sacrifice all of the chickens and all of the goats if need be, in order to increase my net worth during the month of May. For me to trade down in two consecutive months is akin to a black swan event and shall not happen.

Here is the daily action in my high beta index inside Stocklabs. There are ostensibly all of your higher profile trading stocks, the stuff made of nightmares and dreams.

As you can see today’s drawdown, although unfortunate, could be construed as a minor pullback following a fast rip. The fact that yields are coming in has me in an obstinate bullish position without hedges, taking on a bit of water here, now down 30bps.