Pimco’s Australian Division Sees Longer Term Upside in Bonds and the Aussie Dollar

“Australian government bonds are poised to extend the best rally among top-rated nations as local policy makers cut interest rates in response to global monetary easing, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.

“Hyperactive monetary policies underway across the vast majority of the developed world” will keep the Australian dollar strong, Robert Mead, head of portfolio management at Pimco’s Sydney office, said at the Bloomberg Australia Economic Summit this week. “The escape valve becomes monetary policy once again and that probably starts to show up sooner rather than later.”

The country’s 10-year yields fell 31 basis points over the past month to 3.31 percent, the biggest drop among 10 sovereign markets with AAA scores from all three major ratings companies. The notes offer more than twice the average for top-rated peers even after the yield plunged 2.3 percentage points in two years.

The Aussie dollar reached a 28-year trade-weighted high this week after the Bank of Japan (8301) surprised forecasters on April 4 by doubling monthly bond purchases to almost match the Federal Reserve’s extraordinary monetary easing. The erosion in export earnings, along with a slowdown in China, will damp Australia’s economy and pressure the Reserve Bank to cut rates to a record, according to Pimco, which runs the world’s biggest bond fund.

28-Year High….”

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“The Australian and New Zealand dollars were set for a weekly gain as the bigger nation’s Treasurer Wayne Swan said he’s optimistic about China’s outlook.

The so-called Aussie was near a three-month high before Chinese data next week forecast to show the world’s second- largest economy grew last quarter at the fastest pace in a year. The New Zealand dollar’s value relative to its trading peers was close to an all-time high amid speculation the Bank of Japan (8301)’s monetary easing will encourage domestic money managers to increase their investments overseas.

“The Australian and New Zealand dollars are likely to remain resilient,” said Kengo Suzuki, a currency strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo, a unit of Japan’s third-biggest financial group by market value. “The rising optimism toward China’s economy is underpinning both currencies.”

Australia’s dollar added 0.1 percent to $1.0550 at 4:39 p.m. in Sydney after reaching $1.0582 yesterday, the strongest since Jan. 11. It has gained 1.6 percent this week, set for the biggest five-day advance since the period ended March 15.

The New Zealand dollar, known as the kiwi, fell 0.1 percent to 86.22 U.S. cents. It has risen 2.3 percent since April 5, poised for the biggest weekly advance since the period ended June 15.

The kiwi’s trade-weighted currency index climbed to a record 79.67 yesterday, according to data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand going back to 1985. It’s at 79.17 today.

China’s Economy

China’s gross domestic product probably expanded 8 percent in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, the fastest growth since the first quarter last year, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The figures are due for release on April 15…..”

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World Markets

Currencies

Commodities

USD Libor

Euribor

Yields for Italy, Spain, France,  and Germany …

 

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“The premium in America has shifted from truth to self-serving distortion, and from trust to manipulation.

The premium we place on truth and trustworthiness is self-evident. Truth is uniquely productive feedback from the real world. Truth (including factual data) is indispensable, for it alone enables us to correct errors, learn from mistakes and improve our effectiveness and communication.

We pay a premium for trust because the cost of dishonesty and artifice is steep.Would you pay more to buy a used car from someone you trust? If you place no premium on trustworthiness, then you buy the “great deal” used car you found online: oops, the “new” battery was spray-painted black, the crankcase leaks, the engine is shot and doesn’t pass smog, and the certificate of ownership is forged.

The premium on truth and trust is eroding under the constant onslaught of officially manipulated data and markets, and a vast array of distortions and propaganda designed to serve the interests of ruling Elites and key constituencies.

We all know the negative premium placed on fact: telling the truth will get you fired. And not just in the corporate world: politicians from the President on down all worship at the altar of the carefully distorted unemployment rate.

The officially sanctioned lying and manipulation are now shameless. Never mind that millions of people have become statistical phantoms (i.e. not in the workforce) to generate that low rate, and college graduates working 3 hours a day (if they’re called in at all) are gleefully counted as employed, as if there is no difference between a full-time job and a marginal one.

President Obama is touting rising auto sales as proof of the “recovery” (and implicitly, of his wise stewardship), studiously avoiding the fact that these stupendous auto sales are the result of offering low-interest rate auto loans to marginal borrowers with near-zero collateral (i.e. skin in the game).

How did blowing a credit bubble and securitizing the debt turn out last time?

Never mind: here we go again. Via Doug Nolan at Prudent Bear:

Springleaf Finance Corp., the lender to borrowers with poor or limited credit, sold $604 million of bonds last month backed by personal loans secured by household goods from furniture to electronics, its first such deal. Demand for riskier asset-backed bonds has grown as the Federal Reserve holds its benchmark interest rate at almost zero for a fifth year. Sales of securities linked to subprime auto loans doubled to $4 billion in January from a year earlier.

Manipulation and carefully crafted distortion erode trust, not just in the individuals employed to repeat the lies but in the institutions that issue them. The ruthless pursuit of self-interest is now the norm; truth is a terribly risky disruptor that must be hidden, masked or countered with plausible lies.

As a nation, we’re like the obese person who looks at himself in the mirror and sees his body as normal–the distortion of truth is so complete that we literally no longer recognize reality. Untruth no longer arouses any moral indignation; we are either too jaded to care, or our moral compass now spins aimlessly from one manipulation to the next.

There can be no trust if there is no truth. How can we trust people who lie to us constantly, who issue one self-serving justification after another for their own parasitic predation? We cannot. How can we trust institutions whose credibility now rests on the continuation of lies that are so embedded in our financial sector and State that their collapse will bring down the entire house-of-cards debtocracy? We cannot.

The premium in America has shifted from truth to self-serving distortion, and from trust to manipulation. This spiritual and moral rot will end gloriously, have no doubt, for the stock market’s permanent ascendancy dissolves all other narratives. ….”

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DOW up 61

S&P up 5

NASDAQ up 3

Gold up $2

WTI down $1.17

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XyTpENuoCI 450 300]

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“As reported in my new book, “Completely Predictable,” the combined spending of federal, state and local governments per American household actually exceeded the median household income for 2010, which is the latest year for which all relevant government data are available.

In fiscal 2010, according to numbers published by the Census Bureau and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), net spending by all levels of government in the United States was $5,942,988,401,000. That equaled $50,074 for each one of the 118,682,000 households in the country.

In that same year, according to the Census Bureau, the median household income was $49,445.

That means total net government spending per household ($50,074) exceeded median household income (49,445) by $629.

Government in the United States, of course, has not always spent more per year than the median household earns. As recently as 2000, the relationship between government spending and household income was dramatically different.

Data from the Census Bureau and the OMB show that in that year net spending by all levels of government was $3,239,913,876,000. That equaled $29,941 for each of the nation’s then 108,209,000 households. In 2000, the median household income was $41,990.

Thus, between 2000 and 2010, government in this country went from spending $12,049 less than the median household income to spending $629 more.

This is how I derived these startling numbers…”

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“The federal regulator for Fannie Mae FNMA -6.79% and Freddie Mac FMCC -9.09%will extend a popular refinancing program for two more years.

The Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, allows homeowners with loans backed by the mortgage-finance companies to refinance even if they don’t have any equity. So far, more than two million homeowners have refinanced under the program. HARP had been set to expire at the end of this year, but the Federal Housing Finance Agency said Thursday that the program would now run through 2015.

“We are extending the program so more underwater borrowers can benefit from lower interest rates,” said Edward DeMarco, the acting director of the FHFA.

The Obama administration rolled out HARP in early 2009, and the program was initially set to end on June 10, 2010. In addition to extending the end date of HARP several times, the program has undergone a series of overhauls in a bid to reach more borrowers amid disappointing initial results….”

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“BRUSSELS—Europe is embarking on a new attempt to pull its banks out of the molasses of its debt crisis, hoping an aggressive cleanup of toxic assets will get banks to lend again and kick-start its flailing economies.

The push is being led by several key officials in Brussels and Frankfurt, who want to see a new round of much-tougher stress tests before the European Central Bank becomes the euro zone’s main banking policeman next year, according to four European officials familiar the talks.

They are backed by the continent’s richer countries, including Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, which don’t want to pick up the bill for weak lenders in their poorer neighbors.

The proponents of strict stress tests will launch their campaign at a meeting of European Union finance ministers in Dublin on Friday. That debate follows a first discussion of the exercise among senior national finance-ministry officials last week.

Efforts to rid banks of bad assets and then boost their capital buffers face formidable challenges: Previous stress tests have been watered down as national governments lacked the willingness and financial capacity to deal with the results. Even now, officials caution that key players—including the ECB and the European Commission, the EU’s executive—haven’t made up their minds on how intrusive they want the new stress tests to be.

But a group of key crisis managers believes cleaning up weak banks is the only way to get Europe’s economy to grow again, after superlow interest rates and large-scale liquidity injections from the ECB have failed to produce the desired results. These officials see continued doubts over the health of many lenders as the main reason banks are reluctant to lend to companies, especially in the continent’s weaker countries…..”

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“Federal prosecutors in Los Angeles filed criminal charges Thursday against a former KPMG LLP partner who has admitted to passing on inside information about his clients.

Scott London, the partner in charge of audits of Herbalife Ltd. HLF +4.11% andSkechers USA Inc. SKX +1.57% until he was fired from KPMG on Friday, also was hit with civil securities-fraud charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The development is the latest in a scandal that led to the accounting firm resigning as auditor of the two companies.

Mr. London was charged with one count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud through insider trading, according to the criminal complaint. He faces up to five years in prison and a $250,000 fine. The complaint said the trades generated a profit of more than $1 million for his friend, Bryan Shaw.

The complaint also says Mr. London tipped off Mr. Shaw about five KPMG clients, more than was previously known.

In exchange, according to the criminal complaint, Mr. London received bags containing $100 bills wrapped in $10,000 bundles, concert tickets, and a Rolex watch.

According to the SEC’s civil complaint, Mr. London was the lead partner on several KPMG audits, including Herbalife and Skechers, and he was the firm’s account executive for Deckers Outdoor Corp. DECK +1.28% In those roles, Mr. London was able to obtain material, nonpublic information about these companies prior to their earnings announcements or release of financial results.

Mr. Shaw, who lives in Lake Sherwood, Calif., is accused of trading at least a dozen times on the inside information he received from Mr. London. He allegedly grossed profits of more than $714,000 from trading based on confidential financial data about Herbalife, Skechers, and Deckers, the complaint says.

The SEC alleges that Mr. London also gained access to inside information about impending mergers involving two former KPMG clients—RSC Holdings and Pacific Capital Bancorp. Mr. London allegedly tipped Mr. Shaw with the confidential details….”

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“Mercedes-Benz in-house tuner AMG is best known for its thunderous, cacophonous V-8 gasoline engines. The brand’s latest model is something of a departure, though.

The 2014 Mercedes-Benz CLA 45 AMG still offers ballistic performance, but uses only a 2.0-liter, four-cylinder engine–albeit turbocharged to 355 horsepower.

AMG has now said that it’s a trend it expects to continue — while hybrids knock high-performance diesels aside in the pursuit of both power and economy.

According to Edmunds (via our sister site Motor Authority), AMG Chairman Ola Källenius thinks hybrids will be the future of performance vehicles.

Diesel, says Källenius, doesn’t deliver the aggressive characteristics of a gasoline engine — nor its pure throttle response, nor the NASCAR-style sounds common to many AMG products.

Hybrids, on the other hand, still allow automakers to use gasoline engines as a main source of propulsion, without sacrificing too much in the way of efficiency.

AMG will produce a hybrid vehicle “when the market is ready for it and in markets [that require it] due to their regulations”….”

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“Last fall, a source close to Yahoo told us that Facebook was working on an advertising product that “kills us.”

He said:

“There’s a story brewing about a next very big business it’s building—one that competes with one of Yahoo’s flagship ad products and would kill us.”

That product is finally here.

It’s called “partner categories.”

It allows Facebook advertisers to show ads to people who have purchased, or have shown interest in purchasing, specific categories of products offline – from consumer packaged goods to cars and more.

Facebook can do this thanks to a partnership with a firm called Datalogix.

Datalogix tracks usage of loyalty cards in offline retail stores.

Facebook can, in an privacy-sensitive way, tell who purchased about 50% of all consumer-packaged goods sold in the US.

Datalogix can also track people who have given over identifying information to merchants, asking for more information about their products.

So, for example, Facebook knows which of its users have asked Chevy for brochures on its new Camero.

The implications of this capability are obviously huge.

Imagine how valuable it will be for Gillette to put ads in front of men who bought new razors, or for Ford to stick a Mustang ad in front of those Camero shoppers.

That kind of targeting – based on a consumer’s signalled intent – is nearly as valuable as Google search targeting, where a consumer has told Google exactly what he or she is looking to buy.

No wonder our Yahoo source was so nervous.

Here’s Facebook’s blog post announcing the feature…”

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“Retailers broadly missed analysts’ estimates for same-store sales in March, a month that typically sees cold weather and slow hiring in the early weeks.

So far, 63 percent of retailers who reported results fell short of Wall Street’s estimates for sales at stores open at least a year, a key industry metric, according to the Thomson Reuters same-sales index, released Thursday. Excluding Walgreen and Rite Aid, whose results are heavily skewed by prescription drug sales, forecasters were expecting a jump in same-store sales of 2.2 percent, slowing from the blistering pace of 7.1 percent in March of last year.

Costco Wholesale reported a slightly smaller-than-expected rise in same-store sales, hurt by weak international results and lower gas prices, while Victoria’s Secret parent L Brands posted better-than-expected sales at all of its chains.

Costco fared better in the U.S., where sales at stores open at least a year rose 5 percent, largely in line with expectations. Small appliances, jewelry and fresh food logged some of the biggest gains.

L Brands saw continued improvement at its La Senza chain, as well as an unexpected rise in same-store sales at Bath & Body Works. Company-wide, same-store sales rose 3 percent; Wall Street had been expected flat results, according to Thomson Reuters.

Analysts had been expecting 13 top U.S. retailers, including Gap, to post a 1.8 percent rise in same-store sales for March, according to Thomson Reuters, down from a rise of 2.9 percent in March 2012….”

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While you wait for it to open here is an illustrated history of past crashes:

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“NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Securities and Exchange Commission told five big Wall Street banks last year to improve disclosures about structured notes that are mostly sold to retail investors, and criticized use of the term “principal protected” in marketing materials.

The SEC sent letters to JPMorgan Chase & Co , Bank of America Corp , Citigroup Inc , Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Morgan Stanley on April 12, 2012, with 14 comments about their marketing, pricing and distribution practices for structured notes that the banks issued from April 2009 through March 2012.

SEC staff said that using the term “principal protected” for structured notes should also come with disclosures about risk.

The correspondence between the banks and the SEC were released this week.

Structured notes are unsecured bonds that are paired with derivatives, which guarantee the return of an initial investment, as well as some portion of any profits that come from the derivatives trade. However, the investments are not entirely risk-free: repayment of the bond is based on the credit-worthiness of the note issuer.

For instance, when Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, holders of its “100 percent principal-protected notes” were treated like other unsecured creditors. UBS AG , which sold those notes to its brokerage clients, lost a series of related arbitration cases before the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

“Note titles using the term ‘principal protected’ should also include balanced information about limitations to the principal protection feature,” the SEC said, adding that issuers should “clearly describe the product in a balanced manner and avoid titles that stress positive features without also identifying limiting or negative features.”

In responses to the SEC, all five banks said they do not currently use the term “principal protected” and will continue to review titles of structured notes to ensure they reflect risks as well as positive attributes….”

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$BBRY is currently down 7.2%

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“As most of us can remember that Iceland was the first country that went down during the last Global Financial Crisis in 2008. During that time Iceland had done something remarkable and that is during the five years prior to the crisis, managed to transform its economy from a fishing industry to a mega hedge fund country. Many of its citizens left their traditional trade which is fishing to become fund managers and salesman. As a result Iceland’s banking assets (physical assets + Loans + Reserves + Investment securities) grown to more than 10x its GDP of $14 billion.  With such high leverage, when the financial crisis struck it is unable to defend its economy and hence its house of cards collapsed.

The purpose of this article is a post-event analysis of the performance of the Icelandic economy that refuses a bailout as compared to Greece which went for a bailout with the injection of funds from Troika. To simplify matters, we shall coin the bail-in and bail-out as (BIBO)for short. Of course in the short term it helped stabilized the Greek economy for a while but we want to know to what extent it had transformed the Greek economy in the long run with the accompanying terms and conditions and austerity measures. In this article we shall compare the performance of both the economies of Iceland and Greece with the economic indicators or metrics below from the year 2002 to the present. We believed we have been fed with too much toxics by the mainstream medias which are also own by them that capitalized on the age old investment axiom of good-to-good.

Does Government do what’s right for us?

We have led to believed or should we say brought up with the perception that when someone does well then he/she will be blessed in return. Hence it gave rise to an old age investment axiom of good-to-good and bad-to-bad reaction which can be translate to good action leads to good reaction. So we always believed that whatever our Government does it will be for the better of us. So when they bailed out the banks, we believed that they are doing the right thing and we should leave everything in their good hands and expect good reaction. Right? WRONG ! We shall show you on our analysis below that whatever our Government does is not necessary the right thing to do. We have based our analysis on the following indicators or metrics.

1. GDP per Capita
2. Inflation rate
3. Balance of Trade
4. Government Debt to GDP
5. Government 10Y bond
6. Government Spending
7. Consumer Spending

The following is a review of the Icelandic economy which not only refuses a bailout of its banks but instead bankrupting them. They are taking a big risk to take things into their own hands instead of letting the bankers running their country. They are going off the beaten path and from our analysis we reckoned that they have done the right thing. Below we compare the economies of two different countries that have taken different paths – one that receive bailouts (Greece) and the other (Iceland) refuses bailouts. The first metric we are using is the GDP per Capita.

1. GDP Per Capita ratio

The first metric that we are going to compare is the GDP/Capita ratio. GDP/Capita also shows the standard of living of a particular country and a higher ratio normally denotes a higher standard of living. As you can see from the charts 1a & 1b below Greece seems still to be on the plunging mode and somehow there seems to be no slowing down in sight and hence a floor has yet to be set. Whereas Iceland seem to be going on a firmer footing when its GDP/Capita ratio seems to be stabilizing around 2011 and it seems to be on the uptrend. Iceland’s current (2012) ratio seems to be heading back towards the 2006 level whereas Greece’s is heading backwards to the 2003 level.

Chart 1a & 1b (GDP Per Capita)

1. Inflation Rate

The second metric is the Inflation rate. From Chart 2a below it seems like Greece’s might be facing the risk of a deflationary spiral as happened to Japan in the 1990s.  Its inflation rate has fallen from 4.5% in April 2011 to 0.1% in February 2013. Once the economy sets it path on a deflationary mode it is very difficult to reflate it back to the preferred long term inflation rate of 1-2 % above zero. Japan will be a good example when its economy was gripped by the deflationary forces since the 1990s, eventually it ended with 2 lost decades of growth. Only recently newly elected Prime Minister Mr Shinzo Abe is committed to reflate Japan’s economy at any cost.  On the other hand Iceland’s inflation rate is now at 4.8% which is hovering around the mean of (4.7%) for the past three years and considered to be manageable and essential for economic growth.

Chart 2a & 2b (Inflation Rate)

1.  Balance of Trade

The third metric is the Balance of Trade which is also can be defined as difference between the exports and imports in monetary terms. From Chart 3a it is very obvious that Greece has been running trade deficits for the past 24 months consecutively. Negative trade deficits means there is a net outflow of money from Greece. This means that Greece may need to borrow more in future in order to finance its government expenditure and hence will incur more debts in its coffer. As for Iceland it is a different story where out of the 24 months 19 of them are experiencing positive balance of trade. Positive balance of trade means positive net inflow of funds and hence it enable the Icelandic government either quicken their repayment of debts or embark on new government fiscal expenditures without resorting to more borrowing.

Chart 3a & 3b (Balance of Trade)

1. Government Debt/GDP

Next is the Government Debt/GDP ratio or the total amount a country has as in percentage of its GDP. It seems that Greece’s Debt/GDP ratio is currently way above 100% and as of end of 2012 it at 161.6%. A high Debt/GDP means more funds are needed for interest payments and hence less will be available for development. We will foresee this trend will extend much further into the future because 1) its ratio is still considered dangerously high and 2) many of its economic indicators are still recording negative readings and hence may dampen its ability to quicken its repayment schedule….”

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“I’ve made a big fuss over QE in recent years and yet the market continues to plough higher.  I often have people ask me:

“Why does QE make stock prices go higher if there’s no fundamental impact?

My answer is always the same.  First, look at Europe where QE has also been implemented and stock markets like Greece, Italy and Spain have been decimated.  Then look at a country like the USA where QE has been implemented and yet stocks soar.  Then ask yourself what the big difference is between these countries?  The answer: austerity versus massive deficit spending.

It might be easy to scoff at such an observation, but the reality of the picture is that corporate profits have been largely driven by the deficit in this cycle.  As net investment collapsed the traditional driver of profits was overtaken by government spending (see figure 1).  This makes sense if you’re familiar with Kalecki and his profits equation.  It makes even more sense if you’d been working under Richard Koo’s balance sheet recession theory in recent years.  The impact of government deficit spending in such an environment has been massive.  All those people screaming about the ill effects of deficit spending and hyperinflation in recent years missed the very explainable and fundamental driver of the profits momentum…..”

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“While Facebook is building out a bolder role in mobile in the form of Facebook Home, it looks like it is also continuing to make acquisitions that will help bolster that strategy overall. We have learned that in the lead-up to the launch last week, the social network appears to have quietly picked up Osmeta, a Mountain View-based mobile software startup. Osmeta had yet to launch a commercial product, and it is not completely clear at this point if this is an acqui-hire or a technology deal as well.

We have reached out to Facebook for a comment and will update this post if we hear back. Update: A Facebook spokesperson has now confirmed the acquisition, with no further comment. Original story continues below.

This is what we’ve been able to piece together:

– Osmeta has been around since August 2011. It was co-founded by Google/IBM alum Amit Singh, and IBM alum Mark Smith, and it had 17 employees — all engineers. It’s “about” page describes a team of “world-renowned hackers and highly accomplished researchers capable of herculean software engineering.” In addition to Google and IBM Research, other past employers included Yahoo Research, VMware and Facebook.

– A number of employees who had listed Osmeta as a place of employment are now indicating that they work at Facebook on their LinkedIn profiles. One of them specifically notes that he moved to Facebook after it acquired Osmeta in March 2013.

– The company had yet to publicly launch a product, but….”

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“Private company M&A and venture capital database CB Insights has issued its Q1 2013 report on venture capital and deals. According to the report, VCs invested $6.9 billion across 841 deals (eclipsing a Q3 2012 high), which is the highest level since dot-com days, says CB Insight. You can find a full copy of the report here.

One of the most interesting data points noted by CB Insights was that Series C, D and E all saw an increase in shares of funding dollars while Series A and B both saw declines. Consistent with the reports we’ve seen over the past few months, seed funding continued relatively the same despite concerns about a Series A crunch.

Deal volume was up 7 percent from last year, and funding, relative to Q1 2012, was up 17 percent. Seed VC activity was fairly flat on a sequential basis (194 seed VC deals in Q1 2013 vs. 190 in Q4 2012) but year-over-year VC seed deals are up 31 percent (148 in Q1 2012). Internet deal activity climbed to multi-year highs hitting 379 deals (best since Q1 200), but social as a category made up only 4 percent of deals. CB Insights attributes this jump to the boom in enterprise deals. Clean-tech deals and dollars also hit multi-year lows.

Investment dollars within mobile hit $718 million in Q1, a high beat only by Q3 2012, which saw $968 million in investment. The actual amount of deals dipped to 106 from 122. As a sub-industry in mobile, security is seeing a boom, with over 30 percent of funding dollars for the quarter.

Specifically for Internet companies, deal activity and funding to Internet companies increased 10 percent and 12 percent from Q4 2012, respectively, and climbed 16 percent and 35 percent on a year-over-year basis.

In terms of states for the second time in the last two years….”

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