“China’s unprecedented run of better- than-forecast export growth has spurred deeper skepticism of the data at banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., casting doubt on the strength of the recovery.
Gains in overseas shipments exceeded forecasts by at least 7.5 percentage points in December, January and February, the first time that’s happened in three straight months in the eight years Bloomberg has compiled analyst estimates for the data. March figures are due to be released tomorrow at 10 a.m. at a briefing in Beijing, giving the customs administration an opportunity to address the issue.
Overstated exports would mean China is failing to get the boost from global demand that the data suggest as the new government under Premier Li Keqiang seeks to sustain an economic rebound. Theories include companies inflating the value of shipments to bring money into China, according to Nomura Holdings Inc., and exporting the same goods twice as local governments seek to boost data, Goldman Sachs says.
“The recovery in exports is there, but the magnitude probably is much weaker than the official data has been indicating,” saidZhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. inHong Kong.
The trade figures are part of a week of China data that started with today’s below-forecast inflation reading and culminate with first-quarter gross domestic product on April 15.
Goldman Sachs said in a March 29 report that investors shouldn’t also be skeptical of the broader growth statistics, because export data don’t enter directly into official GDP.
