“Goldman commodity analyst Damien Courvalin is out with a big call: The top in gold is in.
The firm says that the primary driver of gold prices are real interest rates (which have been super-low in the United States, in part thanks to aggressive Fed easing) and that with the economy coming back, this era is coming to an end.
We told you this weekend that Goldman economist Jan Hatzius made a big economic call… that the era of sub-par, post-Financial Crisis growth would come to an end sometime in the second half of 2013. And Courvalin, in lowering his gold outlook, is keying off of this call.
Here are the two key paragraphs from the report:
Improving US growth outlook offsets further Fed easing
Our economists forecast that the US economic recovery will slow early in 2013 before reaccelerating in the second half. They also expect additional expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. Near term, the combination of more easing and weaker growth should prove supportive to gold prices. Medium term however, the gold outlook is caught between the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradual increase in US real rates on better US economic growth. Our expanded modeling suggests that the improving US growth outlook will outweigh further Fed balance sheet expansion and that the cycle in gold prices will likely turn in 2013. Risks to our growth outlook remain elevated however, especially given the uncertainty around the fiscal cliff, making calling the peak in gold prices a difficult exercise.
Gold cycle likely to turn in 2013; lowering gold price forecasts”
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