U.S., China, and a mutual distrust

(CNN) — The United States and China have the most important bilateral relationship in the world. Whether they can develop a constructive, cooperative relationship or whether they become each others’ greatest nightmare has enormous consequences for each country and for the capacity of the international system to manage regional and global issues.

Both leaderships recognize what is at stake, which explains why, despite many disagreements, Washington and Beijing constantly stress the importance of building ties. The two governments conduct more than 60 formal dialogues a year and engage each other daily, to a far greater extent than most people realize.

Despite these efforts, each country has an underlying and growing distrust of the other’s long-term intentions. Such distrust is corrosive, casting even well-intentioned actions and initiatives in a negative light.

When President Nixon opened the door to Beijing 40 years ago, nobody imagined that U.S.-China relations would develop to this point. But extensive governmental contacts between the nations, economic interdependence and huge flows of students and tourists back and forth have failed to stem the growth of underlying mutual distrust. That distrust could well create a self-fulfilling prophecy of eventual confrontation.

A key problem is that neither government is confident that it understands how the other sees the future of their relationship. Although each side senses distrust in the other, the real reasons for that attitude are unclear. So, how do they separate propaganda efforts designed to manipulate from sincere concerns?