A round up of predictions we pray will not happen…
Some more reading if you so desire
Comments »Monthly Archives: January 2012
Latin America Presents Opportunities for Business and Investor Alike
“(Reuters) – Here’s an economic riddle of sorts: Which economy grew faster over the last seven years? A) President Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela, famous for its forced nationalizations and “21st century socialism,” or B) Chile, long renowned as a capitalist paradise for investors.
It might surprise some outsiders to learn that the answer is actually A. In recent years, commodities prices have dictated growth in Latin America more than any other factor, meaning that countries could trample on businesses but still grow briskly as long as they exported plenty of raw materials such as oil and iron ore to China and elsewhere.
Venezuela, the region’s No. 1 oil exporter, has averaged about 4.6 percent economic growth since 2005, compared to 4 percent in Chile, the world’s leader in copper. An even clearer example of commodities’ almighty reign was Argentina, which averaged 7 percent growth during the same period as record soy and other farm exports helped offset the government’s hostile stance toward energy companies and some other investors.
Now, it looks as if the trend is shifting. In Latin America, 2012 seems set to be the year in which business climate clearly reestablishes its supremacy as the main driver of growth.
The countries expected to grow the fastest in 2012 are also generally the ones that are perceived by the World Bank and others as treating investors the best. That means Chile, Peru and Colombia should lead the pack, while Venezuela and even Brazil will lag a step behind – just as they did last year….”
Comments »South Carolina’s States Rights Debate Stirs Up Old Bias in a Key Battle Ground State
“(Reuters) – The state that fired the first shot in the Civil War is once again battling the government in a racially charged conflict that is drawing heated rhetoric from Republican presidential candidates.
South Carolina is in a standoff with Democratic President Barack Obama’s administration over a new state law that would require residents to produce a photo ID before they could vote. Federal officials say it could disproportionately keep black voters away from the polls.
For South Carolina’s Republican leaders – and Republican presidential candidates seeking support in the state’s primary on January 21 – the Justice Department’s move is the latest in a series of intrusions into state business by Washington.
Republican candidates are waving the banner of states’ rights as they tout their small-government credentials.
“Each of our states are under assault right now by this administration,” Texas Governor Rick Perry said Saturday at a candidates’ forum in Charleston. “We may be under assault – South Carolina, they’re actually at war with you.”
Such declarations might make for smart politics in a state that has a suspicion of Washington woven into its DNA, but they risk stirring up the race-baiting that has been an ugly feature of South Carolina politics in the past….”
Comments »Hurrah: Proposed Oilfield Shut Down in Nigeria on Hold
The common man should be rejoicing that oilfields previously decided to be shutdown will not be….for the moment. Talks over strife and strike and still progressing in Nigeria.
Comments »El-Erian’s Take on What the European Downgrades Really Mean
“The chatter on Friday’s downgrades of European sovereign ratings debt is all over the place – from those dismissing it as old news (especially given that S&P warned back on December 5th) to those viewing it as part of a larger and consequential transformation of the international monetary system.
What follows is an attempt to provide a guide to the multi-faceted implications.
It focuses on three types of consequences: (i) those that are unambiguous and already reflected, albeit not fully, in market valuations; (ii) those that are less well understood but will become clearer in the next few weeks; and (iii) those that are consequential but where the analytics are still largely unknown at present.
The sovereign debt of European sovereigns was already trading at yields consistent not only with what S&P announced today, but also with more draconian downgrades – thus the view that the impact on overall yields and spreads would be contained.
Yet there are some differences between signaling an action and actually taking it. First you remove residual uncertainty about the action, including timing and scale. Second, you encourage others to follow.
Third, you impact the pattern of investment flows, especially those subject to guidelines and restrictions defined in terms of ratings.
All three are relevant for Europe. The net result has both a quantity and price angle: a decline in future investment flows into the Euro-zone, and incremental market pressure that, other things being equal, would be more persistent than would have otherwise been the case.
This speaks to a weaker Euro [EUR=X 1.2678 
0.0005 (+0.04%) 
] and recurrent volatility in sovereign spreads…”
Merkel Promises to Speed Up Debt Solutions as Downgrades Hit Europe
Feathers Ruffled a Bit Over U.S. Sanctions of Chinese Energy Company
“China voiced “adamant” opposition to U.S. sanctions on a Chinese company selling refined petroleum products to Iran, calling Washington’s punishment an unreasonable step beyond international sanctions on Tehran’s nuclear program.
On Thursday, the Obama administration invoked U.S. law to sanction China’s state-run Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp, which it said was Iran’s largest supplier of refined petroleum products.
“Imposing sanctions on a Chinese company based on a domestic (U.S.) law is totally unreasonable, and does not conform to the spirit or content of U.N. Security Council resolutions about the Iran nuclear issue,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said in a statement issued on the ministry’s website late on Saturday. ”
Comments »FLASH: TIM TEBOW’S BRONCOS ON CUSP OF LOSING TO GISELE’S UGG-TOY
Blowout City. Follow the game live here
Comments »-$130 Million: Extra Tax Revenue All Smoke and Furors
John Crudele
The Rolling Stones said it best: “You can’t always get what you want.”
But it seems New York state never gets what it wants. That’s especially true when it comes to increasing tax revenue.
Case in point: cigarette taxes.
The state’s tax collectors were recently calling around to convenience-store owners, wondering what was up. The $130 million in extra tax that Albany was expecting from a change in the law about cigarette sales on Indian reservations wasn’t happening.
A memo sent to members of the New York Association of Convenience Stores from the group’s president, Jim Calvin — a copy of which I have on my desk — said, “I got a call from Gov. Cuomo’s budget office yesterday. In examining cigarette tax receipts so far this fiscal year (April 1 to March 31) it looks like they will fall considerably short of their projection in new revenues. . . .”
The state had hoped to get the extra dough by enforcing a new law that made it illegal for licensed cigarette wholesalers in the state to sell untaxed name-brand cigarettes like Newport and Marlboro to Indian reservations.
The reservation store would sell the cigarettes to non-Indian customers who were trying to avoid the hefty taxes imposed by the state. The state and legitimate sellers of cigarettes were both hurt.
The sale of nontaxed smokes by stores on Indian reservations became an issue two years ago when the state cigarette tax was raised significantly and many smokers took more of their business to reservations — or to Internet sellers — whose packs aren’t taxed. Some folks even bought lower-taxed cigs smuggled in from out of state.
Some wholesalers say sales are down between 20 percent and 30 percent among legitimate cigarette sellers.
State enforcement of the tax laws, meanwhile, has been lax, to say the least. New York, I’m told, has reduced the force working on illegal cigarettes by 80 percent since the tax hike went into effect.
But that’s another story.
So how much extra did the state collect in tax with the law change?
The state Department of Taxation did not return a call for comment.
But according to Calvin’s memo, “Cuomo’s budget office” was saying that cigarette tax revenues were flat this past October and November with the year before.
That seems to mean that Albany is $130 million short on its $130 million projection.
Read the rest here.
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Mitt Romney is Going to be a Disaster for Conservatives
Romney is wrong on taxes, healthcare, (insert a litany of other issues where he is weak, at best) and now we have evidence that he is for indexing the minimum wage to the CPI, or another measure. In other words, he is just a big spending, big government loving politician who will say and do whatever is politically expedient at the moment.
For some recent research on the effect of minimum wage increases, see here. Either Romney can’t read, or as I’ve said already, he’s willing to continue the charade in order to get votes.
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For all of the ways that Mitt Romney left his moderate past behind when he finished his term as Massachusetts governor, it turns out that he continues to be a supporter of indexing the minimum wage for inflation.
Oregon and Washington were among the first states to index their own minimum wages to inflation — nine states now do so — and it’s a favorite of liberals who say it not only helps low-income workers but also pumps more money into the economy. It’s anathema to many conservatives, though, who say it actually leads businesses to reduce the number of workers they hire.
At any rate, someone from the National Employment Law Project Action Fund got Romney on video in New Hampshire saying, “My view has been to allow the minimum wage to rise with the CPI, or with another index, so that it adjusts automatically over time.”
Romney campaigned in favor of indexing the minimum wage when he ran for governor in 2002. However, ABC News noted in 2007 that he wasn’t sure he supported indexing the federal minimum wage (which is lower than the minimum wage in several states). In this new video, you could quibble that he doesn’t explicitly say he’s talking about the federal minimum — but that sure seems to be the tenor of his comments.
The news has produced an interesting reaction from the political right. The National Review (which has praised Romney) ran a blog post that expresses concerns about Romney’s stance but notes that one conservative economist, Ron Unz, said it could discourage the employment of illegal immigrants.
However, rival candidate Newt Gingrich said he was surprised to hear that Rommey was backing the indexing of the minimum wage “because what it does is guarantee higher unemployment.”
Read the rest here.
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AMAZING: A REAL Page Turner
America’s Steady Decline: 2012 Economic Freedom Index
Maher: Pissing on Taliban An ‘Endzone Dance’
Iran Sends Rare Letter to U.S. Over Killed Scientist
Iran said on Saturday it had evidence Washington was behind the latest killing of one of its nuclear scientists, state television reported, at a time when tensions over the country’s nuclear program have escalated to their highest level ever.
In the fifth attack of its kind in two years, a magnetic bomb was attached to the door of 32-year-old Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan’s car during the Wednesday morning rush-hour in the capital. His driver was also killed.
U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton denied responsibility and Israeli President Shimon Peres said Israel had no role in the attack, to the best of his knowledge.
“We have reliable documents and evidence that this terrorist act was planned, guided and supported by the CIA,” the Iranian foreign ministry said in a letter handed to the Swiss ambassador in Tehran, state TV reported. The Swiss embassy represents U.S. interests in a country where Washington has no diplomatic ties.
The spokesman for Iran’s Joint Armed Forces Staff, Massoud Jazayeri, said: “Our enemies, especially America , Britain and the Zionist regime (Israel), have to be held responsible for their actions.”
Iran in the past has accused Israel of causing a series of spectacular and sometimes bloody mishaps to its nuclear programme. Israeli officials do not comment on any involvement in those events, although some have publicly expressed satisfaction at the setbacks.
Feeling the heat from unprecedented new sanctions, Iran’s clerical establishment has brandished its sword by threatening to block the main Mid-East oil shipping route, starting to enrich uranium at an underground bunker and sentencing an Iranian-American citizen to death on spying charges.
State TV said a “letter of condemnation” had also been sent to Britain, saying the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists began after the head of Britain’s MI6 spy service announced intelligence operations against states seeking nuclear weapons.
The West says Iran’s nuclear programme is aimed at building a bomb. Tehran says it has the right to peaceful nuclear power.
Tehran has urged the U.N. Security Council and Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to condemn the latest killing.
After years of international sanctions that had little impact on Iran, U.S. President Barack Obama signed new measures on New Year’s Eve that, if fully implemented, would make it impossible for most countries to pay for Iranian oil.
Washington is requiring that countries gradually reduce their purchases of Iranian oil in order to receive temporary waivers from the sanctions.
The European Union is expected to unveil similar measures next week, and announce a gradual oil embargo among its member states, who collectively buy about a fifth of Iran’s exports.
The combined measures mean Iran may fail to sell all of the 2.6 million barrels a day of exports it relies on to feed its 74 million people. Even if it finds buyers, it will have to offer steep discounts, cutting into its desperately-needed revenue.
On Tuesday shipping sources told Reuters Iran was storing an increasing supply of oil at sea – as much as 8 million barrels – and was likely to store more as it struggles to sell it.
Iran denies it is having trouble: “There has been no disruption in Iran’s crude exports through the Persian Gulf … We have not stored oil in the Gulf because of sanctions as some foreign media reported,” oil official Pirouz Mousavi told the semi-official Mehr news agency on Friday.
The sanctions are causing real hardship on the streets, where prices for basic imported goods are soaring, the rial currency has plummeted and Iranians have been flocking to sell rials to buy dollars to protect their savings.
The pain comes less than two months before a parliamentary election, Iran’s first since a presidential vote in 2009 that was followed by eight months of street demonstrations.
Iran’s authorities successfully put down that revolt by force, but since then the “Arab Spring” has shown the vulnerability of authoritarian governments in the region to protests fueled by anger over economic difficulty.
CLASH THREAT
Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz leading to the Gulf if sanctions are imposed on its oil exports, and has threatened to take unspecified action if Washington sails an aircraft carrier through the strait, an international waterway.
Military experts say Tehran can do little to fight the massive U.S.-led fleet that guards the strait, but the threats raise the chance of a miscalculation that could lead to a military clash and a global oil crisis.
The Pentagon said on Friday that small Iranian boats had approached close to U.S. vessels in the strait last week, although it said it did not believe there was “hostile intent.”
The United States and Israel have not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the nuclear dispute. Iran says it would retaliate if attacked.
The tension has caused spikes in global oil prices in recent weeks, although prices eased at the close of last week’s trading on the prospect of reduced demand in economically stricken European countries. Brent crude fell 82 cents to settle at $110.44 a barrel on Friday.
The chances for an imminent easing of tension look even more remote as the nuclear deadlock continues because of Iran’s refusal to halt the sensitive nuclear work.
Last week Iran began enriching uranium underground – the most controversial part of its nuclear programme – at a bunker deep below a mountain near the Shi’ite holy city of Qom.
Nuclear talks with major powers collapsed a year ago. Iran says it wants the talks to resume, but the West says there is no point unless it is willing to discuss a halt to uranium enrichment, which can be used to make material for a bomb.
(Additional reporting by Mitra Amiri; Writing by Parisa Hafezi; Editing by Peter Graff)
Comments »One of the Biggest Assholes in the Entire World
Stock Market Returns By Country So Far in 2012
Friday, January 13, 2012 at 03:03PM
Nine trading days into 2012, the S&P 500 is currently up 2.25% year to date. So how do we stack up with the rest of the world so far this year? Below are the year-to-date returns for the major equity market indices of 78 different countries.
The average year-to-date change for all 78 countries is currently 1.13%, so the US is outperforming the average. There are 49 countries that are in the black for the year (63%) and 29 that are in the red (37%). The US ranks 24th out of 78 in terms of performance.
Read the rest here.
Researchers Discover Particle Which Could ‘Cool the Planet’
13 Jan 2012
Scientists have shown that a new molecule in the earth’s atmosphere has the potential to play a significant role in off-setting global warming by cooling the planet.
In a breakthrough paper published in Science, researchers from The University of Manchester, The University of Bristol and Sandia National Laboratories report the potentially revolutionary effects of Criegee biradicals.
These invisible chemical intermediates are powerful oxidisers of pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide, produced by combustion, and can naturally clean up the atmosphere.
Although these chemical intermediates were hypothesised in the 1950s, it is only now that they have been detected. Scientists now believe that, with further research, these species could play a major role in off-setting climate change.
The detection of the Criegee biradical and measurement of how fast it reacts was made possible by a unique apparatus, designed by Sandia researchers, that uses light from a third-generation synchrotron facility, at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s Advanced Light Source.
The intense, tunable light from the synchrotron allowed researchers to discern the formation and removal of different isomeric species – molecules that contain the same atoms but arranged in different combinations.
The researchers found that the Criegee biradicals react more rapidly than first thought and will accelerate the formation of sulphate and nitrate in the atmosphere. These compounds will lead to aerosol formation and ultimately to cloud formation with the potential to cool the planet.
The formation of Criegee biradicals was first postulated by Rudolf Criegee in the 1950s. However, despite their importance, it has not been possible to directly study these important species in the laboratory.
In the last 100 years, Earth’s average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.
Most countries have agreed that drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required, and that future global warming should be limited to below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F).
Dr Carl Percival, Reader in Atmospheric Chemistry at The University of Manchester and one of the authors of the paper, believes there could be significant research possibilities arising from the discovery of the Criegee biradicals.
He said: “Criegee radicals have been impossible to measure until this work carried out at the Advanced Light Source. We have been able to quantify how fast Criegee radicals react for the first time.
“Our results will have a significant impact on our understanding of the oxidising capacity of the atmosphere and have wide ranging implications for pollution and climate change.
“The main source of these Criegee biradicals does not depend on sunlight and so these processes take place throughout the day and night.”
Professor Dudley Shallcross, Professor in Atmospheric Chemistry at The University of Bristol, added: “A significant ingredient required for the production of these Criegee biradicals comes from chemicals released quite naturally by plants, so natural ecosystems could be playing a significant role in off-setting warming.’
Comments »SHOCK PHOTO: Capsized Cruise Ship off #Italy Coast
@julianmigJulián Miglierini
The BBC at the scene of the Costa Concordia incident near Giglio Islandpic.twitter.com/cUxypSuq
25 British passengers and 12 British crew all rescued safely from cruise ship Costa Concordia, British Consulate says – Sky News
- Submitted 2 hours ago by editor
WATCHING FOOTBALL LIKE A BOSS
Beef, booze and babes — it’s the ultimate Giant playoff road trip.
A Wall Street fat cat has paid a ridiculous $240,000 to fund a rolling party on wheels in a luxury packed RV that is making the 20 hour trek to Lambeau Field for Big Blue’s matchup against Green Bay tomorrow.
Joining the road trippers are two beautiful waitresses, a driver and even the executive chef at Old Homestead Steakhouse, which sold the trip.
Peter Serafin, 57, a married, Manhattan-born Green Bay Packer fan, is taking the trek with five diehard Giant fan pals. The crew is riding high on the hog with hundreds of pounds of prime beef, lobster, shrimp, caviar and enough booze to get an entire NFL team plastered.
CHAD RACHMAN/NEW YORK POST
BIG CHEESE: Peter Serafin (in No. 12 jersey) and pals are traveling to Wisconsin in style, partaking in a pricey party staffed by the Old Homestead.
“It’s exciting,” Serafin told The Post. “I can’t wait. I wish I was in Green Bay tailgating right now. It’s like a dream come true.”
Serafin’s wife has to be the most supportive woman on Earth; today is his 28th wedding anniversary.
“Fortunately, my wife understood this is a one-shot deal,” he said.
“I wanted to throw this out there,” said Old Homestead owner Marc Sherry. “I mean, who wouldn’t want this?”
The $240,000 road trip:
* 1,086 miles to travel in a 70-foot RV
* 5 Giant fans and a “cheesehead”
* 2 beautiful waitresses
* 3 TVs
* 26 bottles of champagne
* 65 Kobe beef burgers
* 100 gallons of beer
* 150 pounds of prime beef
* 10 live lobsters
* 6 seats on the 50-yard line
Read more: http://trade.cc/yyn
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